ALP 5.3%
Incumbent MP
Anne Stanley, since 2016.
Geography
South-western Sydney. Werriwa covers western parts of the City of Liverpool and small parts of the Campbelltown and Fairfield council areas. Key suburbs include Casula, Hoxton Park, Prestons, Rossmore, Austral, Green Valley, Cecil Hills, Miller and Ashcroft.
Redistribution
Werriwa contracted on both its southern and western edge, losing Bardia, Glenfield, Macquarie Fields and Long Point to Hughes, and losing Badgerys Creek and Bradfield to Hume. This reduced the Labor margin from 5.8% to 5.3%.
History
Werriwa is an original federation electorate, named after an indigenous name for Lake George, near the ACT. The seat originally covered parts of southern NSW including what became northern parts of the ACT. It gradually shifted northeast to the Illawarra, eventually reaching the Liverpool-Campbelltown area. The seat has been a safe Labor seat since the 1930s, and has been held by a number of prominent Labor figures, including a Prime Minister, a Treasurer and a Leader of the Opposition. The seat has seen a record number of five federal by-elections, which have all seen Labor retain the seat, in 1912, 1952, 1978, 1994 and 2005.
The seat was first won by Alfred Conroy of the Free Trade Party in 1901. Conroy was defeated by David Hall (ALP) in 1906. Hall was re-elected in 1910, but resigned in 1912 to return to state politics. Hall served as Minister for Justice then Attorney-General from 1912 to 1920. Hall was expelled from the ALP in 1916 for supporting conscription, along with Premier William Holman.
Werriwa was won by the ALP’s Benjamin Bennett at the 1912 by-election, but retired at the 1913 election, when Conroy was re-elected for the Liberal Party. John Lynch gained the seat back from Conroy in 1914, and left the ALP in 1916 over conscription, becoming a Nationalist.
Lynch was re-elected as a Nationalist in 1917 but lost the seat to the ALP’s Hubert Lazzarini in 1919. Werriwa began to strongly shift from the Southern Highlands into the Illawarra region at the 1922 redistribution, and over the next thirty years Lazzarini saw the seat shift into the Liverpool district and eventually lose the Illawarra.
Lazzarini followed NSW Premier Jack Lang out of the ALP in 1931, and was one of the Labor splitters who brought down the Scullin government, and lost Werriwa to Country Party candidate Walter McNicoll at that year’s election.
Lazzarini regained Werriwa as a Lang Labor candidate in 1934, and returned to the ALP in 1936. Lazzarini served as a minister in the Curtin government and the first Chifley ministry in the 1940s, and held the seat until his death in 1952.
The 1952 by-election was won by ALP candidate Gough Whitlam. Whitlam ascended to the leadership of the Labor Party in 1967 and was elected Prime Minister in 1972. Whitlam was Prime Minister for three years, losing the 1975 election following the dismissal of his government. He remained Leader of the Opposition and led the ALP into the 1977 election, retiring in 1978.
The 1978 by-election was won by John Kerin, who had previously held the neighbouring seat of Macarthur from 1972 until his defeat in 1975. Kerin served as a minister for the entirety of the Hawke government, rising to the position of Treasurer after Paul Keating moved to the backbench in 1991, but a troubled period as Treasurer saw him move to the backbench just before Keating became Prime Minister, and he retired in 1994.
The 1994 by-election was won by Mayor of Liverpool and Whitlam protege Mark Latham. Latham quickly rose to the ALP frontbench following their 1996 election defeat, although he left the frontbench after the 1998 election because of conflicts with ALP leader Kim Beazley.
Latham returned to the frontbench following the 2001 election, when Simon Crean succeeded Kim Beazley as Leader of the Opposition, rising to the position of Shadow Treasurer before Crean resigned as Leader, and Latham was narrowly elected as Labor leader in December 2003.
Latham led the ALP to a defeat at the 2004 election and resigned in early 2005 as both Labor leader and Member for Werriwa. The ensuing by-election (at which the author stood as a candidate for the Greens) saw ALP candidate Chris Hayes safely elected, and he won re-election in 2007.
The 2010 redistribution saw the seat of Reid effectively abolished in its existing form, and this triggered a reshuffling of Labor MPs in Western Sydney. Laurie Ferguson moved from Reid to Werriwa. Hayes shifted north to Fowler.
Ferguson had been a state MP from 1984 to 1990 and had already served twenty years in federal Parliament when he shifted to Werriwa.
Hayes and Ferguson were both re-elected in their new seats, with Ferguson being hit by a large 8.3% swing. Ferguson was re-elected again in 2013.
Ferguson retired in 2016, and was succeeded by Labor candidate Anne Stanley. Stanley has been re-elected twice.
- Sam Kayal (Liberal)
- Tony Nikolic (People First)
- Gemma Noiosi (Libertarian)
- Anne Stanley (Labor)
Assessment
Werriwa was once a blue ribbon Labor seat, respectively represented by a prime minister, a treasurer and an opposition leader, but the relative strength of Labor here compared to New South Wales or Australia overall has been dropping. This seat is probably beyond the reach of the Liberal Party in 2025 but as the left has strengthened in inner suburbia this kind of seat is more likely to become a key marginal in the future.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Anne Stanley | Labor | 40,108 | 39.9 | -7.9 | 39.1 |
| Sam Kayal | Liberal | 30,864 | 30.7 | -4.6 | 30.9 |
| Tony Nikolic | United Australia | 8,813 | 8.8 | +4.6 | 9.2 |
| Victor Tey | Liberal Democrats | 8,978 | 8.9 | +8.9 | 9.1 |
| Apurva Shukla | Greens | 6,772 | 6.7 | +1.4 | 6.6 |
| Adam Booke | One Nation | 5,096 | 5.1 | +5.1 | 5.0 |
| Informal | 10,962 | 9.8 | -1.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Anne Stanley | Labor | 56,173 | 55.8 | +0.4 | 55.3 |
| Sam Kayal | Liberal | 44,458 | 44.2 | -0.4 | 44.7 |
Booths in Werriwa have been split into four parts. The sparsely-populated west of the electorate has been grouped as “west”, while the urbanised majority of the seat has been split into north, south and east.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the three largest areas, ranging from 52.6% in the south to 58.6% in the east. The Liberal Party polled 61.8% in the west.
The United Australia Party and Liberal Democrats both polled just over 9%, with the UAP strongest in the north and the Liberal Democrats strongest in the south.
| Voter group | UAP prim | LDP prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 9.7 | 8.7 | 54.0 | 14,571 | 17.3 |
| South | 9.4 | 9.1 | 52.6 | 13,753 | 16.3 |
| East | 8.6 | 7.1 | 58.6 | 13,564 | 16.1 |
| West | 9.3 | 8.2 | 38.2 | 1,503 | 1.8 |
| Pre-poll | 10.1 | 11.1 | 55.5 | 28,808 | 34.2 |
| Other votes | 7.1 | 7.3 | 58.2 | 12,005 | 14.3 |
Election results in Werriwa at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party, the United Australia Party and the Liberal Democrats.
Werriwa could swing hard against Labor (on primary votes) due to cost of living and mortgage stress as this is a mortgage belt. The Gaza issue would also be toxic for Labor since there’s a large presence of people with South Asian Muslim or Middle Eastern heritage.
The combined vote last election for minor right parties – UAP, LDP, ONP, was pretty insane at 23%. I don’t think it’ll be as high next time. The Greens could pick up voters disaffected by the Gaza issue or are looking for a third party alternative.
From what I remember the UAP and Liberal Democrats (now Libertarians) each polled above 10% based on the redistribution. If a lot of that goes to the Liberals, they could come very close to winning here (or win but it’s increasingly unlikely due to Palestine).
I’d outright favour the Libs here if it weren’t for Gaza.
Libs preselected early and allowed a big enough runway for Sam Kayal to campaign.
Been very present at train stations and shopping centres.
NSW exec very bullish on picking this up; some good polling out of Reid and Parra recently as well
@scart the two main groups of muslims here are iraqi and lebanese. besides labor havent overwhelmingly advantaged themselseves here either o the issue. i doubt the issue is going to matter much i think the margin here will be small either way
With respect to the Liberal Democrats they did well here because they were 1st placed on the ballot paper this was the same on Bruce/Hotham as well so i think there vote is inflated due to confusion and probably Liberal voters anyway. I suspect the UAP took some Muslim votes last time and if any of that swings to Greens and flows back in preferences to Labor that will help them. I think it is knife edge i do agree with Scart and James above. This is one area the Liberals were actually making inroads into the Muslim community due to the popularity of Ned Mannoun and Labor has had a serious of low profile, low energy MP since Latham.
even the greens preferences split weaker then usual here. labor only got 60% of the greens 2nd prefernce. i think Stanley will suffer a greater the avg swing but whether its enough to unseat her is another thing. 2028 she could be in trouble though
Whilst I believe the Liberals will overtake Labor on primaries, Labor will have some path to holding on.
UAP and LDP scored double-digits at many polling and prepoll places in 2022. Their vote was largely driven by anti-vax and anti-lockdown sentiment. In much of this area, people were heavily locked down, subjected to curfews and had to queue for hours for Covid PCR tests during the pandemic. As Nimalan mentioned, LDP was top of the ballot and it helped.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Greens go back to third place because of their more pro-Gaza stance (which will be more popular in the east) and also their left-wing economic policies.
The Gaza issue will not help Labor on primaries but it will increase the Green vote some of which could be at the expense of the UAP and the Liberals so it depends on preference flow.
the gaza may not help them but it wont hinder them Stanley came out against israel about 3 weeks ago but i dont think the issue wil determine the seat. anyone who votes for labor on the isssue is likely already voting labor
@ John
I disagree with the last sentence in this seat because this one of the few areas where Libs were making inroads into the Muslim community with Ned Mannoun. If October 7 did not happen and Ned Mannoun was the candidate i would predict it will be an much easier gain for the Libs.
@nimalan doesnt matter if you win by an inch or a mile. winning is winning.
Col is biting especially hard here. I’m gonna say lib gain.
It’ll be interesting to see this compared to state results. The Liverpool area is becoming stronger for the Liberals on the state and local levels (the Mayor of Liverpool is a Liberal and he was re-elected last year) while the western part (state seat of Badgerys Creek) has long been Liberal. The Holsworthy electorate on the state level is marginal Liberal.
im saying this will flip
agree john
i dont think the coalition will flip too many im not very high on their odds atm
but this is one of the five seats i think they will flip atm
circumstances feel very right for an above average swing to the liberals here
what are the other four?
Ive got them winning Lyons, Lingiari, Paterson, Werriwa, Robertson, Bennelong, Gilmore, McEwen, Aston, Ryan, Bullwinkel, Curtin. Seats i think will be close include Goldstein, Chisholm, Parramatta, Kooyong, Mackellar, Tangey, Blair, Boothby, Hawke, Gorton, Bruce. ? include Franklin (teal), Macnamara, Brisbane (likely Labor gain), Richmond, Whitlam, Bean (teal), Solomon, Macarthur, Mcmahon(assuming Carbone runs), Blaxland. There are a few seats that i think may throw up surprises but are hardly worth mentioning.
atm I dont think anyone will get to majority, and the seats are gonna be too close to call on who forms minority but if the libs can snap up the majority of the teal seats Dutton would have to be in best position.
rn im predicting as LNP gains
lingiari
werriwa
paterson
gilmore
mcewen
wasnt thinking about aston initially so six including that.
ALP gain brisbane from GRN, sturt, moore, MAYBE deakin and leichhardt
GRN gain macnamara and wills from ALP
IND possible gains in wannon calare cowper but unsure
as for werriwa i feel the conditions are right (outer suburban lack of services/infrastructure, duttons message plays well here, uninspiring local MP and a margin within reach) for a gain even in a 52-48 ALP environment nationally – its why its the highest margin ALP seat i have the coalition picking up, although i could be convinced they can gain hawke
calare is really an ind retain. but yea i think that is the strongest chance. not to mention in werriwa is probably one of the most under stress seats in the country. i think the election will be ona knife edge. and the outcome of a handful of seats will determine which side of the line minority govt falls on.
There’s been some hype surrounding this seat. Werriwa was featured on a Four Corners episode in February. Both the Labor MP and Liberal candidate spoke on camera.
I believe that during the 2019 and 2022 campaigns, Scomo popped in to campaign. If memory serves me right, there was talk about how the religious vote was critical here and Scomo had some appeal. Labor held on both times.
Dutton may be different in that doesn’t come across as religious as Scomo. Maybe he is but he just keeps a lower profile. Fairfax pointed out that on the first day of the campaign, Dutton visited a mosque in SW Sydney.
Dutton comes across more as a culture warrior and right wing populist than a religious conservative compared to Morrison. Werriwa is definitely more suited to the latter than the former.