IND 9.0% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Allegra Spender, since 2022.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Sydney. Wentworth covers Woollahra and Waverley local government areas, as well as eastern parts of the City of Sydney and northern parts of Randwick LGA. Wentworth covers the southern shore of Sydney Harbour as far west as Finger Wharf, and covers the east coast from South Head to Clovelly. Main suburbs include Bondi, Woollahra, Vaucluse, Clovelly, Darlinghurst, Double Bay, Kings Cross, Potts Point, Woolloomooloo and parts of Randwick. Wentworth also covers Moore Park and Centennial Park.
Redistribution
Wentworth expanded in the only two directions that was possible – to the west and south. Wentworth took in Darlinghurst, Potts Point and Woolloomooloo from Sydney, and the remainder of Clovelly and part of Randwick from Kingsford Smith. These changes brought in areas much more favourable to the left, and I estimate this increased Spender’s margin from 4.2% to 9.0%.
Wentworth is an original federation electorate and has always existed roughly in the eastern suburbs of Sydney. It has been held by conservative parties, including the Liberal Party since its foundation in 1944, except for a brief period in 2018-19 when it was won by an independent.
The seat was first won by William McMillan of the Free Trade party in 1901. He was elected deputy leader of his party but retired at the 1903 election. He was succeeded by William Kelly, also a Free Trader. Kelly joined the Commonwealth Liberal Party and served in Joseph Cook’s ministry from 1913 to 1914.
Kelly retired in 1919 as a Nationalist and was succeeded by Walter Marks. Marks joined with other Nationalists, including Billy Hughes, to bring down the Bruce government in 1929, and was reelected as an independent. Marks joined the new United Australia Party in 1931, but was defeated in that year’s election by Eric Harrison, another UAP candidate.
Harrison held the seat for twenty-five years for the UAP and the Liberal Party. He usually held the seat safely, although he only held on by 335 votes in 1943, when feminist campaigner Jessie Street (ALP) challenged Harrison. William Wentworth also polled 20%. He later joined the Liberal Party and was elected in Mackellar in 1949.
Harrison had served a number of brief stints as a minister under Joseph Lyons and Robert Menzies in the 1930s and early 1940s, and served as the first deputy leader of the Liberal Party from its foundation until his retirement in 1956. Harrison was a minister in the Menzies government from 1949 until 1956, when he retired.
Les Bury (LIB) won the seat at the 1956 by-election. He served as a minister from 1961 until 1971, serving as Treasurer under John Gorton and briefly as Treasurer and then Foreign Minister under William McMahon. Bury retired in 1974.
Robert Ellicott (LIB) was elected in 1974. He served as Attorney-General in the first Fraser Ministry and as Minister for Home Affairs from 1977 to 1981, when he resigned to serve on the Federal Court. The ensuing by-election was won by Peter Coleman. Coleman had previously served as Leader of the Opposition in the NSW Parliament, and lost his seat at the 1978 state election.
Coleman retired in 1987 and was succeeded by John Hewson. Hewson was elected leader of the Liberal Party following their 1990 election defeat. Hewson led the party into the 1993 election, where the party went backwards. He was replaced in May 1994 as leader by Alexander Downer, and he retired from Parliament in 1995.
Andrew Thomson won the following by-election. Thomson served briefly as a Parliamentary Secretary and junior minister in the first term of the Howard government. Thomson was defeated for preselection by Peter King in 2001.
King himself was defeated for preselection in a heated preselection campaign in 2004 by Malcolm Turnbull. The preselection saw a massive explosion in membership numbers for the Liberal Party in Wentworth. King ran as an independent and polled 18%, and Turnbull’s margin was cut to 5.5%.
The redistribution after the 2004 election saw Wentworth extended deeper into the City of Sydney, and Turnbull’s margin was cut to 2.5%. Turnbull managed to win the seat in 2007 with a 1.3% swing towards him, in the face of a national swing against the Liberals.
Turnbull had served as a minister in the final term of the Howard government, and ran for the Liberal leadership following the 2007 election, losing to Brendan Nelson. After serving as Nelson’s Shadow Treasurer he was elected Leader of the Opposition in September 2008. After a rocky term as Leader of the Opposition, Turnbull was defeated by Tony Abbott by one vote in another leadership vote in December 2009. Turnbull served as a shadow minister and then as Minister for Communications under Tony Abbott’s leadership.
In September 2015, Turnbull successfully challenged Abbott for the Liberal leadership, and became Prime Minister. He led the Liberal-National coalition to a second term in government in 2016.
Malcolm Turnbull led the Liberal Party in government until August 2018, when he resigned following a motion to spill the Liberal leadership. He was succeeded as Prime Minister by Scott Morrison. Turnbull resigned from Wentworth shortly after losing the leadership.
The 2018 Wentworth by-election was won by independent candidate Kerryn Phelps. Phelps held the seat until the 2019 election, when she was defeated by Liberal candidate Dave Sharma.
Sharma held the seat for just one term before losing to independent Allegra Spender in 2022. Sharma was then appointed as a senator for New South Wales.
Assessment
Wentworth has become much more favourable for Spender in the redistribution and she should win a second term.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dave Sharma | Liberal | 35,995 | 40.5 | -7.0 | 37.5 |
| Allegra Spender | Independent | 31,810 | 35.8 | +35.8 | 29.3 |
| Tim Murray | Labor | 9,654 | 10.9 | -0.1 | 17.7 |
| Dominic WY Kanak | Greens | 7,410 | 8.3 | +0.8 | 10.7 |
| Natalie Dumer | United Australia | 1,813 | 2.0 | +1.3 | 2.1 |
| Daniel Lewkovitz | Liberal Democrats | 1,346 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 1.2 |
| Dean Fisher | One Nation | 895 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 1.2 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 2,277 | 2.5 | -0.5 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Allegra Spender | Independent | 48,186 | 54.2 | 59.0 | |
| Dave Sharma | Liberal | 40,737 | 45.8 | 41.0 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dave Sharma | Liberal | 49,727 | 55.9 | -3.9 | 51.2 |
| Tim Murray | Labor | 39,196 | 44.1 | +3.9 | 48.8 |
Booths have been divided into four parts along local government boundaries.
There was no Liberal vs Independent 2CP for the newly-added areas in Sydney and Randwick. I have instead used the Liberal 2CP against either independent or Labor, excluding the Labor vs Greens 2CP in the areas added from Sydney.
The Liberal vote is strongest in Woollahra, and weakest in Sydney. Spender would have likely done even better in the areas added from the seat of Sydney. She did about 11% better than Labor in Woollahra and Waverley, which would translate to a 2CP of about 80% in Sydney and 78% in Randwick.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP | LIB 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Woollahra | 63.2 | 51.9 | 15,829 | 14.6 |
| Waverley | 48.1 | 37.2 | 13,695 | 12.6 |
| Sydney | 33.6 | 31.4 | 8,279 | 7.6 |
| Randwick | 37.8 | 33.0 | 6,078 | 5.6 |
| Pre-poll | 50.6 | 39.5 | 45,499 | 41.9 |
| Other votes | 56.6 | 45.6 | 19,328 | 17.8 |
Election results in Wentworth at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Liberal or Labor vs Greens), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidate Allegra Spender, Labor and the Greens.
I’d be interested to see, post-election, how the Labor vote in the newly added parts of Wentworth (South of Clovelly Road and west of Elizabeth Bay) will convert into the teal vote.
I’m tipping Spender will retain. Dave Sharma’s personal vote helped hold up the Liberal vote last election. This time, there is no incumbent Liberal.
Spender’s inclination to vote with the Liberals more often than the other teals hasn’t gone unnoticed either, suspect of all the teal seats they’ll throw the least at this one and mostly be happy to leave her in place for a while as the 2PP makes it a notionally Labor seat in her absence over time.
Spender will hold easily this seat is now marginal even in a good year for the libs. Tbh asap lib voters I’m happy for her to sit on this seat until parliament expands in order to keep it off labor
Maxim is right on this. Word on the inside is that Wentworth is low on the target for the Liberal Party as Spender has been quite friendly.
I reckon there will be a sophomore surge for Spender that will push her close to, if not breaking, 60% TCP
I’m sure they want it but let’s face it their is a lot more lower hanging fruit. And this one is probly a one of the bit higher hanging ones for now.
It makes me chuckle when the likes of Fletcher and some other Libs tar teals all with the same brush as wannabe Greens and all part of the same party. Yes they have a lot of common ground, yes they’re all backed by Holmes a Court but they do have their own independent streak too – they don’t all vote in unison on legislation – in this regard, negotiating with them independently and pointing out merits/flaws in legislation is key. I don’t blame the Libs in their strategy – its pretty understandable when every teal seat was once a blue ribbon Liberal one, I just think its a pretty misguided one and not very convincing in my opinion especially in this term of parliament.
On minority government, I think it really depends on how the numbers end up. If Labor needs nearly all teals, other independents and Greens to shore it up (which likely would mean Coalition got equal or more seats than Labor), sure then many teals backing them more likely may end up losing their seat the following election. But if Labor needs a lot less than the Libs do, then confidence and supply to the larger party just makes sense. Also keep in mind that they can always rescind their support during the term of parliament as Andrew Wilkie did to the Gillard government after gambling reform was dropped. 2010 is a recent example of minority government but another example would be after 1940 – independents in conservative seats backed Menzies but then switched to Curtin after Menzies was ousted as leader.
Anyway, Spender should be able to keep this seat for as long as she wants to contest it.
@WL agree on minority government
The ALP could lose 5 seats and still be way ahead of the LNP in seat count making it reasonable for the cross-bench to support them
In NSW currently the ALP is in minority by 2 seats but LNP are 9 less. Don’t think anyone is blaming the independents for any NSW ALP failings
@Wl if Labor needs nearly all the teals, greens and Independents they won’t be forming govt. If the the liberals are 6 seats ahead of them they will form govt enough centre crossbenchers will see it logical enough to back the party with the far greater seat count. If the Liberals get 71 seats it’s over.
No one believes me but In minority govt.
The only certain vote for Dutton is Katter.
Dutton ‘s nuclear fantasy will not endear him to the teals. To suggest that mps will support the partisan lean of their electorate is not true.
Looking at things it is difficult for Labor to retain its absolute majority. If a minority then this can cover quite a range.
@Mick Quinlivan I agree if we’re looking at the MPs likely to be elected.
However, if Andrew Gee gets elected then it would make the most sense for him to back the Coalition because he represents a safe Nationals seat.
But as for the teals (I’ll count Andrew Wilkie and Rebekha Sharkie as “teals” despite Wilkie being from a different era of independents and Sharkie actually being a member of the Centre Alliance party), while I agree they could support a moderate Liberal leader, they won’t support Peter Dutton. But this is kinda irrelevant since if the Liberals were moderate teals probably wouldn’t exist.
The Greens will never support the Coalition as they are extreme left. One Nation and other right-wing minor parties will never support Labor as they are extreme right, despite their base being from across the spectrum but united by some common values.
Dai Le’s vote is an important one. While she was a former Liberal member she is very much a centrist now and represents a traditionally Labor-held seat, one that also includes parts of Liverpool (an area that has become more and more Liberal in recent years and the Liberals actually did better there on the state level in 2023 than in their 2011 landslide). So given that Liverpool is now a battleground on the state level it shouldn’t bother that part of the electorate if she supports the Liberals, but it might anger those in the Fairfield part who still vote solidly Labor.
Labor should put up a high profile candidate here (as they have in the past) and have a dip at this – similarly in Bradfield, though for different reasons.
The common thread is that they are seats that Labor can win in coming cycles but they will not if the IND get totally established (i.e. with labor primary <20%). Warringah is in a similar position but it is too for gone with Zali already.
Another issue is that an expansion of parliament has to come and there could well be new, smaller, seats drawn within these eastern suburbs and north shore areas that are Labor on 2PP
@np if gee backs Labor he may as well start looking for another job like Windsor and oakshot.Sharkie has already publicly stated she will support whoever has the most seats.f Dai Le backs the liberals she will have similar issues to Gee. My opinion is Le won’t be forced to make that choice . If the liberals get into govt they will likely get it without her. I doubt Wil,ie will choose sides again not after he got burned last time. They thing he wants the most is one thing Labor will not give him because it hurts their bottom line.
High street Labor will never win this seat. If they put up a high profile candidate now they risk unseating spender and giving the libs another seat
@ high Street a smaller Wentworth would remove the Labor areas of the seat and move it back to safe liberal
Source on Sharkie saying she’ll back whoever has the most seats?
Labor might win the 2PP in Wentworth. Whatever the case I still think Spender will take the same approach as the other teals (and Haines, Wilkie) – support Labor if they are forced to choose but do everything in their power to avoid the perception of choosing as it would be the end of their political careers. The Greens WANT balance of power whereas I think the Teals dread it
Le and Sharkie on the other hand I think support Liberals but would be seen as betraying their electorates if they did so publicly (Labor won the Mayo 2PP and could do even better this time).
Can’t get a read on Gee and Broadbent’s approach to their former parties. Gee at least seems to have landed to the left of the Nats. Broadbent is a total wildcard.
Il post it as soon as I can locate it but here’s an article saying she will negotiate will Dutton first.https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-five-crossbench-mps-who-could-make-peter-dutton-pm-20240926-p5kdtb
Stegall and Sharkie also made the same statement before 2019 and Spender has made a similar statement regarding this year. Spender gave an address not o long ago at the NPC saying whoever has the most seats should get first crack. I saw zsharkie thing on the news a while ago.
Dai Le has been a bit coy about her intentions in suspect she would back the libs Wilkie has stated no deals and who can blame him after last time but he will vote on all legislation based on merit. Katter is also friends with Albo.
the Mayo result can be attributed to the swing which should come back this time. If the greens win 4 or even more this time they will demand a ministry. They should win at least 3 in my opinion. But could win as many as 7.
What constitutes the ‘most seats’? Labor vs Coalition or Labor + Greens vs Coalition?
Where Windsor and Oakeshott came unstuck is that they were in lockstep with the Gillard and Rudd governments from Day 1 – not an iota or difference. They were also smug and arrogant and loved that position in the spotlight. Who could ever forget that excruciating 17 minutes when Oakeshott was at the podium in 2010 just rambling on and not saying who he would support. Methinks the current Independents have been pretty good learners and won’t repeat that mistake.
@BNJ Broadbent won’t be elected but if he somehow is then he will support Dutton.
As for Sharkie, I think that’s just because of HTV cards. It is a blue-ribbon Liberal seat that voted Liberal from its creation in 1984 until it was lost to Sharkie in 2016.
Former Liberal leader Alexander Downer held the seat from 1984 until 2008, when he resigned and Jamie Griggs replaced him after winning the by-election. Griggs then lost to Sharkie on Labor preferences in 2016 when the NXT (now the CA) contested a bunch of seats in SA and did quite well.
Back to Wentworth, I wonder if there are many Malcolm Turnbull supporters who will vote against the Liberals because of what Dutton did to him in 2018. Turnbull had a strong personal vote here and people may still hold a grudge.
I doubt Labor would win the 2PP here vs the Liberals. The Labor vote estimate is inflated by Plibersek’s and Thistlethwaite’s personal vote and overperformance last election.
I don’t see a situation where teal independents + Haines + Sharkie + Le will look at the seat 2PP to decide who to back in a minority government. People may be spooked from the 2010 experience as Labor was in minority with the Greens and two rural independents joined them, when their electorates were conservative. What the teals and other crossbenchers could do is push for more economically liberal policies e.g. top tax bracket tax cuts, as well as government integrity or the usual infrastructure or small target demands.
They talk of horses for courses.
Turnbull was unusual in that from the 2010 election till he retired he boosted the liberal vote by approx 10% and kept that higher vote. This vote was not available to another liberal candidate. Whilst Wentworth is a lake of red surrounded by nearby Bondi Paddington Coogee Paddington this will be competitive for the the teals but out of reach for Labor
Should the boundaries change and recreate the old Phillip that seat will be marginal alp – liberals
Golly you are predictable John. I am not sure why Labor bothers trying in any seat going on your logic… Your logic of a swing against the Liberals in one election will always be reversed in the next election is brilliant. Don’t no why I didn’t think of it
But I think today even Nether Portal tops you. By his logic the 2PP count means nothing because it is all a result of evil HTV cards!!!
And this crap about Labor doing well in a Teal seat risks handing the seat to the Liberal’s is just crap. The risk is so small as to be imperceptible. And what’s the downside – you say none of the teals are supporting Labor anyway, so what would be lost?? The chance to win in 3 or 6 years time, that’s the only thing given away by not trying
@High Street – with due respect, that does sound a bit insulting and a tad bit offensive.
@Votante A recent Redbridge/Accent poll shows Wentworth to be the most progressive seat in Australia by self-reported ideology to have an underlying Coalition 2PP majority, even more progressive than many Labor strongholds like Barton and Chifley. The new areas added to Wentworth are strong progressive voting areas and will still record a very high Labor 2PP majority even without an incumbent Labor MP. Considering the Liberal Party’s 2PP majority in Wentworth is only 1.2% and the predicted backlash against Dutton in teal seats, it’s entirely possible Labor will win a 2PP majority in Wentworth at the upcoming federal election. https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Accent-RedBridge-MRP-ideology-report-v2.pdf
@Blue Not John: I do agree that teals plus Haines will support Labor if forced to choose, but then try to amend or vote against Labor on issues concerning taxes or industrial relations to avoid the perception that they are in lockstep with Labor.
@high Street there were clear issues nationwide. And history shows us that when Labor take power they get a massive swing usually due to the longevity of coalition governments that always reverse at the next when people become softer on them. That’s usually followed by a massive swing back to the coalition. And then a small swing towards labords Labor followed by a swing back to the liberals when Labor gets overly excited about winning and tries to introduce their real agenda thinking people will just swallow it like medicine.
@James (ireland) – I’m here to comment intelligently on election analysis matters. I don’t apologize for calling out partisan rants.
Even Ben Raue has in the past pointed out that the likelihood of an exclusion order issue causing a seat to be lost is minute under compulsory preferencing voting. All I then did was point out the contradictory logic on display from John – and I did this because it spreads in the community like a virus. What’s it matter to Labor if a Liberal supporting Teal loses their seat to the Liberal’s??
@John – well they didn’t get a massive swing last time – they only won 77 seats afterall. So perhaps history doesn’t always repeat so predictably as you describe. Perhaps there will not be a massive swing back – the polls don’t really show it. And you are still talking AVERAGE swings. The nation’s partisan divides are not static.
People like to say that polls tighten in the Coalition favor coming into an election. What actually typically happens is they tighten in favor of the Government.
@they did in individual marginal and safe seats
Link to a poll in Wentworth:
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberals-heartland-seat-of-wentworth-out-of-reach-polling-reveals/news-story/6c51ff1a85eea5ab23caf9d135d2708a
Caution-its sponsored by Climate 200 which is Holmes a Court’s organisation supporting the Teal candidates.
Actually labor can win this seat but it will be a fluke and go back to the liberals
Mick stop with the unrealistic labor chances the liberals would win Sydney and melbourne before Labor won here.
The Labor 2PP in this seat now is 48.8%. The Liberal 2PP in Sydney is 24.3%. Insane comparison.
They’re not going to win it because Spender is here but it isn’t a crazy idea to think this seat could flip to Labor at some point.
With the slow population growth in this area, it’ll keep having to be pushed further into Sydney and Kingsford Smith. Ultra safe Labor voting areas. It’ll eventually become a seat, once Spender retires, that is competitive for ALP, GRN, LIB and IND.
@drake by the time spender retires parliament will have likely expanded and therefore the boundaries would shrink back to being safe for the libs. GRNs have no hope here due to the strong ALP and LIB vote. after spender i reckon the teal obsession will have disapated. so really Spender is just keeping the seat of Wentworth warm for the libs, holding off LAB for the time being.
Dave Sharma had he not lost to Spender in 2022 would have to fight off a Labor challenge. something he agreed on. so losing his seat to Spender and getting into the Senate when an unavoidable vacany appeared may have been a blessing for the libs. Otherwise they might be stuck with Zed (whats his name) or a short stint by constance and then have to find another candidate once he vacted it to contest Gilmore again
@high street i reckon cming from there worst result in a long time and be on the verge of toppling a first term government would classify as a pretty big swing.
Allegra Spender will be a shoo in this time. On economics she is pretty right wing – at some stage that might be a factor in enlivening the left. A big Jewish vote will suppress the Greens. I could see this becoming a very marginal seat and then go to Labor – unless the parliament enlarges – and that is not something I would hold my breath for.
@redistributed an expansion to parliament is inevitable because the only other option is allow constituent numbers to keep growing and that would require more staff an extra dozen or 2 mps costs less then an extra staff member per mp
John
I agree totally that there should be an enlargement. It is the public optics – the loud and screaming part will carry on about more politicians. I would like to see more elected representatives than party hack staffers (some not all) sitting about in MPs offices but the public might not see it like that.
john & redistributed-there is no chance of an increase in the size of the house unless s24 of the Constitution is amended.It reads(extract):
The number of members chosen in the several States shall be in proportion to the respective numbers of their people, and shall, until the Parliament otherwise provides, be determined, whenever necessary, in the following manner:–
” (i.) A quota shall be ascertained by dividing the number of the people of the Commonwealth, as shown by the latest statistics of the Commonwealth, by twice the number of the senators:
(ii.) The number of members to be chosen in each State shall be determined by dividing the number of the people of the State, as shown by the latest statistics of the Commonwealth, by the quota; and if on such division there is a remainder greater than one-half of the quota, one more member shall be chosen in the State. ”
The House cannot therefore be more than twice the size of the Senate.
It would be suicide for the major parties to agree to an increase in the size of the Senate unless proportional representation is dropped as the means of Senate election.
@sabena wrong all they neeed to do is increase the size of the senate which can be done by an act of parliament. there is already a proposal to do this and it will likely occur in the next parliament and probably be in effect after the 2031 election. the senate proportion cannot be altered except by referendum and you can bet the smaller states (WA, TAS and SA) will oppose it. the parliament has been increaded before on at least 3 occasions that im aware of.
The way the senate is elected is governed by legislation as long as each state has 12 and they are elected for 6 year terms. So it could be six regions with a senator on rotation or 12 regions that come up at different times (like Tasmania LC). The nexus cannot be changed without a referendum. So 14 senators per state is the logical next step unless they tread really boldly and go for 16 – but unlikely.
Since it’s aligned to house of representatives I think it would be a fair argument. Politicians seem afraid of being attacked for creating more of themselves, but honestly the population size of seats is dangerously anti democratic. The closer a politician is to his/her community the better.
This is also why I am against larger multi member electorates. The smaller the electorates the better for it being truely representative of people.
I have been redistributed into Wentworth from Kingsford Smith. My local booth here in Coogee saw the Liberals run third on primaries at the last Federal election. Allegra Spender signs are now popping up around here. With the exception of booths in Dover Heights and Vaucluse I expect Spender to win easily across the electorate.
I am interested in seeing how the vote ends up splitting in the numerous booths the ALP won around 70-30 on TPP that have been transferred in from Kingsford Smith and Sydney. Labor had primaries in the high 40s and low 50s in those booths, with Greens votes in the mid 20s. This is compared to primaries around 10% and 8% from booths that were in Wentworth last time.
On Labor’s chances of winning in Wentworth, it really depends on the expansion of Parliament. If Parliament expands, Wentworth will contract to only cover Waverley and Woollahra LGAs, which will see it return to the Liberals. If Parliament doesn’t expand, Wentworth can only grow into the very progressive areas of Darlinghurst and Surry Hills from Sydney or the very progressive areas of Coogee and Randwick from Kingsford Smith. These areas have consistently produced left right spilts in excess of 2-1 over the past decade at all levels of government. If Wentworth expands, Labor would be in the box seat with a good candidate when Allegra Spender retires.
“This is also why I am against larger multi member electorates. The smaller the electorates the better for it being truely representative of people.”
How is a larger multi member electorate less representative than a smaller single member electorate?
Prior to Turnbull’s reign and 2010 boost.
There was talk of Labor being competitive here. Jessie Street came very close in 1943.