IND 9.0% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Allegra Spender, since 2022.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Sydney. Wentworth covers Woollahra and Waverley local government areas, as well as eastern parts of the City of Sydney and northern parts of Randwick LGA. Wentworth covers the southern shore of Sydney Harbour as far west as Finger Wharf, and covers the east coast from South Head to Clovelly. Main suburbs include Bondi, Woollahra, Vaucluse, Clovelly, Darlinghurst, Double Bay, Kings Cross, Potts Point, Woolloomooloo and parts of Randwick. Wentworth also covers Moore Park and Centennial Park.
Redistribution
Wentworth expanded in the only two directions that was possible – to the west and south. Wentworth took in Darlinghurst, Potts Point and Woolloomooloo from Sydney, and the remainder of Clovelly and part of Randwick from Kingsford Smith. These changes brought in areas much more favourable to the left, and I estimate this increased Spender’s margin from 4.2% to 9.0%.
Wentworth is an original federation electorate and has always existed roughly in the eastern suburbs of Sydney. It has been held by conservative parties, including the Liberal Party since its foundation in 1944, except for a brief period in 2018-19 when it was won by an independent.
The seat was first won by William McMillan of the Free Trade party in 1901. He was elected deputy leader of his party but retired at the 1903 election. He was succeeded by William Kelly, also a Free Trader. Kelly joined the Commonwealth Liberal Party and served in Joseph Cook’s ministry from 1913 to 1914.
Kelly retired in 1919 as a Nationalist and was succeeded by Walter Marks. Marks joined with other Nationalists, including Billy Hughes, to bring down the Bruce government in 1929, and was reelected as an independent. Marks joined the new United Australia Party in 1931, but was defeated in that year’s election by Eric Harrison, another UAP candidate.
Harrison held the seat for twenty-five years for the UAP and the Liberal Party. He usually held the seat safely, although he only held on by 335 votes in 1943, when feminist campaigner Jessie Street (ALP) challenged Harrison. William Wentworth also polled 20%. He later joined the Liberal Party and was elected in Mackellar in 1949.
Harrison had served a number of brief stints as a minister under Joseph Lyons and Robert Menzies in the 1930s and early 1940s, and served as the first deputy leader of the Liberal Party from its foundation until his retirement in 1956. Harrison was a minister in the Menzies government from 1949 until 1956, when he retired.
Les Bury (LIB) won the seat at the 1956 by-election. He served as a minister from 1961 until 1971, serving as Treasurer under John Gorton and briefly as Treasurer and then Foreign Minister under William McMahon. Bury retired in 1974.
Robert Ellicott (LIB) was elected in 1974. He served as Attorney-General in the first Fraser Ministry and as Minister for Home Affairs from 1977 to 1981, when he resigned to serve on the Federal Court. The ensuing by-election was won by Peter Coleman. Coleman had previously served as Leader of the Opposition in the NSW Parliament, and lost his seat at the 1978 state election.
Coleman retired in 1987 and was succeeded by John Hewson. Hewson was elected leader of the Liberal Party following their 1990 election defeat. Hewson led the party into the 1993 election, where the party went backwards. He was replaced in May 1994 as leader by Alexander Downer, and he retired from Parliament in 1995.
Andrew Thomson won the following by-election. Thomson served briefly as a Parliamentary Secretary and junior minister in the first term of the Howard government. Thomson was defeated for preselection by Peter King in 2001.
King himself was defeated for preselection in a heated preselection campaign in 2004 by Malcolm Turnbull. The preselection saw a massive explosion in membership numbers for the Liberal Party in Wentworth. King ran as an independent and polled 18%, and Turnbull’s margin was cut to 5.5%.
The redistribution after the 2004 election saw Wentworth extended deeper into the City of Sydney, and Turnbull’s margin was cut to 2.5%. Turnbull managed to win the seat in 2007 with a 1.3% swing towards him, in the face of a national swing against the Liberals.
Turnbull had served as a minister in the final term of the Howard government, and ran for the Liberal leadership following the 2007 election, losing to Brendan Nelson. After serving as Nelson’s Shadow Treasurer he was elected Leader of the Opposition in September 2008. After a rocky term as Leader of the Opposition, Turnbull was defeated by Tony Abbott by one vote in another leadership vote in December 2009. Turnbull served as a shadow minister and then as Minister for Communications under Tony Abbott’s leadership.
In September 2015, Turnbull successfully challenged Abbott for the Liberal leadership, and became Prime Minister. He led the Liberal-National coalition to a second term in government in 2016.
Malcolm Turnbull led the Liberal Party in government until August 2018, when he resigned following a motion to spill the Liberal leadership. He was succeeded as Prime Minister by Scott Morrison. Turnbull resigned from Wentworth shortly after losing the leadership.
The 2018 Wentworth by-election was won by independent candidate Kerryn Phelps. Phelps held the seat until the 2019 election, when she was defeated by Liberal candidate Dave Sharma.
Sharma held the seat for just one term before losing to independent Allegra Spender in 2022. Sharma was then appointed as a senator for New South Wales.
Assessment
Wentworth has become much more favourable for Spender in the redistribution and she should win a second term.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dave Sharma | Liberal | 35,995 | 40.5 | -7.0 | 37.5 |
| Allegra Spender | Independent | 31,810 | 35.8 | +35.8 | 29.3 |
| Tim Murray | Labor | 9,654 | 10.9 | -0.1 | 17.7 |
| Dominic WY Kanak | Greens | 7,410 | 8.3 | +0.8 | 10.7 |
| Natalie Dumer | United Australia | 1,813 | 2.0 | +1.3 | 2.1 |
| Daniel Lewkovitz | Liberal Democrats | 1,346 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 1.2 |
| Dean Fisher | One Nation | 895 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 1.2 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 2,277 | 2.5 | -0.5 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Allegra Spender | Independent | 48,186 | 54.2 | 59.0 | |
| Dave Sharma | Liberal | 40,737 | 45.8 | 41.0 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dave Sharma | Liberal | 49,727 | 55.9 | -3.9 | 51.2 |
| Tim Murray | Labor | 39,196 | 44.1 | +3.9 | 48.8 |
Booths have been divided into four parts along local government boundaries.
There was no Liberal vs Independent 2CP for the newly-added areas in Sydney and Randwick. I have instead used the Liberal 2CP against either independent or Labor, excluding the Labor vs Greens 2CP in the areas added from Sydney.
The Liberal vote is strongest in Woollahra, and weakest in Sydney. Spender would have likely done even better in the areas added from the seat of Sydney. She did about 11% better than Labor in Woollahra and Waverley, which would translate to a 2CP of about 80% in Sydney and 78% in Randwick.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP | LIB 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Woollahra | 63.2 | 51.9 | 15,829 | 14.6 |
| Waverley | 48.1 | 37.2 | 13,695 | 12.6 |
| Sydney | 33.6 | 31.4 | 8,279 | 7.6 |
| Randwick | 37.8 | 33.0 | 6,078 | 5.6 |
| Pre-poll | 50.6 | 39.5 | 45,499 | 41.9 |
| Other votes | 56.6 | 45.6 | 19,328 | 17.8 |
Election results in Wentworth at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Liberal or Labor vs Greens), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidate Allegra Spender, Labor and the Greens.
In 1949 and 1984 the house size was increased… now over 30 years since.
This change is overdue and will happen.
If the nexus is the problem.. abolish the senate. Saves $$$
@ Ben
Thank you… I am not quite as insane as people think
I was previously abused for my East Hills prediction.
Hi G.
It’s my views is the less people you represent the more democratic it is. You are closer to the voters for regional seats it also keeps them geographically smaller this easier to get around. It’s essential to good representation.
You could argue that multi member means same people per mp, but in reality they will not only cover a larger area, but also really have to represent everyone, not just their portion of the seat’s population.
There are counter arguments, but I believe the above.
Even without moving the boundaries, I’d assume (happy to be corrected) that the strongest Liberal leaning areas in this seat like Vaucluse and Point Piper are the least likely to densify and gain population; whereas the more Labor leaning areas are the most likely to experience densification and population growth.
So population growth alone could shift this seat further towards Labor in the long term.
Trent
Some of the areas in Wentworth are already densely populated and others such as Paddington and parts of Darlinghurst are heritage listed so there is just not that much scope to grow. So it has to grow out. Air Bnb and non citizens have probably eaten into the enrolment as well.
Yeah I’m not too familiar with Sydney but just assumed (perhaps incorrectly) that if any population growth was to occur in Wentworth as a result of densification & development, the Waverley City Council area would most likely be where most of that growth would occur.
Trent
The other issue in parts of inner Sydney is that blocks of flats with say 12 small flats are being knocked and replaced by 4 big luxury flats so both housing units and population is reduced. I am not aware of that happening much in Melbourne – much less dense to start with
@ lnp
So you support a enlarged number of seats in parliament then?
Perhaps the Founders looked at the US Senate, limited to 2 senators/State, and dominated by great wealth even in 1900, and went with the nexus as a brake on the power of the Upper Chamber?
Point Piper is already well developed which reduces the redevelopment potential, and new apartments in those areas are unlikely to be brought by people lending left, as the asking price would favour downsizers over first home buyers.
It’s pretty clear on the historical record that the nexus was intended to limit the size of the lower house to ensure the balance was maintained in joint sittings.
According to her Instagram, Liberal candidate Ro Knox was at the Sydney Gay and Lesbian Mardi Gras last night. No sign of Peter Dutton who hasn’t even acknowledged the event so far.
And don’t expect him to nether portal
I wouldn’t be surprised if this becomes the safest metropolitan teal seat. Zali Steggall may be weighed down by North Sydney and Northern Beaches Council rate issues (as mentioned in the Warringah thread).
drove the here on the weekend. Plenty on corflutes for Spender and the Lib candidate. Surprisingly there were a decent amount for the ALP candidate too.
Going similar seats Mackellar and Warringah there is only Teal and Lib signage
@Bazza I’d assume the Labor signs are down in the southern end near Coogee and Bondi Junction.
@Votante it’s interesting because while Bondi Beach is quite tealy especially federally, even on the federal level Vaucluse and the other affluent areas are still safe Liberal booths. Indeed, Vaucluse is a safe Liberal seat on the state level and if the Liberal and Labor notional TPP is counted it’s a very safe Liberal seat. So while it could end up being the safest teal seat in the country (and the second-safest independent seat after Clark), it still contains the safest state seat in Sydney that overlaps with a federal teal seat.
@Nether Portal my trip was only between Centennial Park and Bondi Junction
@Bazza makes sense then, I assume it’s more Liberal signs up in the northern end.
Why would it be surprising that there are Labor corflutes??? This will be a Labor 2PP seat after the election..
@High street – my comparison is to similar seats where it is a Lib v Teal contest that I have been through including Mackellar, Warringah and Bradfield where there is no noticeable campaigning from the ALP
@High Street
Agreed. Labor should invest in this seat for the long term as it will be quite competitive if current trends continue.
Progressive voters are probably happy to have Allegra Spender for now as it’s one less seat for the Coalition, but she seems to have some conservative leanings and eventually she may overstay her welcome, especially if she props up a Dutton government.
Until the Coalition is bailed-out by an expansion of parliament this division is going to continue to expand into Labor/Greens friendly territory in Surry Hills or Coogee/Randwick.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/independent-mp-allegra-spender-demands-aec-reveal-who-conducted-smear-campaign/n5kbv3l58
Surely spenderhas heard of this thing called due process. Publicly naming them would harm any legal case
Spender grandstanding? From today’s The Australian, the AEC have determined the pamphleteer has no political connections and consider the matter at an end. Ro Knox quesries how AEC arrived at the 47,000 figur.
[Are there even 47,000 letterboxes in Wentworth?]
Likely hoax of undetermined provenance, imo.
expansion of parliament likely to create a marginal seat not including most of the ultra wealthy areas
similar to Phillip
Agree Angas, although it may take time. For comparison Sharkie hasn’t faced such a challenge, with Labor and Greens sleeping on Mayo, even though she has publicly said she’d call Dutton first in a hung parliament and her seat was actually won by Labor 2PP last time
Going by state seat analogies for an expanded parliament, Spender won’t be attacked from the left if she continues to represent “Vaucluse”, but she won’t be safe in something resembling the state seat of Sydney (Greenwich largely positions himself as left of Labor but it’s hard to tell with him and Clover Moore)
Mick,
There is unlikely to be any expansion of the House of Representatives.The seat is likely to become more difficult for the conservative side to win because it is likely to expand taking in more of Kinsgsford Smith.
An expansion will probably take place around the time nsw is ready for its 7 year expiriation
@ John I support 2031 to be year of expansion of parliament since the population would have reached 30 million and doubled since last expansion in 1984.
Given the election timings for 2031 it would have to be after the election.
If Labor get a majority, this might be the term to do it. I would assume that the Greens and the Nationals would he on side as it would be in their self interest.