Senate – Western Australia – Australia 2025

Any retirement talk for Linda Reynolds?

not reltaed but are you covering the US election Raue?

Nope.

@John plenty of forums will be covering it. The Republican primary in New Hampshire is tomorrow btw, as are the first Democratic primaries in Iowa.

@np I will say after she loses NH Haley will bow out before super tuesday

Linda Reynolds has announced her retirement today. Spares the party what could have been a bruising preselection battle.

I think the senate make-up will remain status quo and the senators up for reflection will all be reeelected. The only outlier might t be pocock if the libs can claw back enough votes.

So a liber win would not work as the greens and Labor could still block legislation in the senate as they control 38 votes so it would be impossible to govern. Though they would have a chance in 2028 to tip the balance back if they can retake the seat in wa or qld or both.

So the nsw govt wants fairer redistribution of gst on a per person basis this would disadvantage wa on the current arrangemtn and would sink the albanese govt in wa. As the smaller states wa nt tas are effectively predicted up by better gst arrangements

@John SA is also smaller than WA and the ACT and NT are territories. But of course they still pay taxes.

yea but WA is the state that albo doesnt want to lose by cutting their fair share toa per capita basis

Apologies for accidentally using the other thread.

Fatima Payman has quit Labor. She will now sit as an independent.

@Votante pointed out that she’s now the fourth Senator to have quit their party this year. Is that a record?

@John claimed she has Afghan citizenship. While she was born there I don’t think she does. As much as I want her gone she wouldn’t have been able to sit in Parliament if she had dual citizenship.

I would actually support a reform of Section 44 because dual citizenship shouldn’t restrict someone from representing their country of residence provided they’ve lived here for enough time to become a naturalised citizen. If a dual citizen can represent at least two countries in international soccer then surely they should be able to get elected to a parliament.

@ Nether Portal I’ve heard she does apparently have Afghan citizenship, however she took all reasonable steps to relinquish it and was unable to due to the Taliban taking power.

Ben Raue, this is the wrong thread for discussion about Payman as her term does not end in 2025. The discussion in the 2022 thread should not have been closed as it was more pertinent there.

Four senators have quit their parties this term. I think the 2016-2019 term, after the double dissolution election, had more party quitters even when discounting the citizenship/eligibility crisis that saw a number of senators leave. Two of them, Cory Bernadi and Fraser Anning, left their original parties and started their own parties.

It’s not that common for a Labor senator to quit. Relatively speaking, senators from minor parties are more likely to quit or defect.

Wilson, if you feel that way you’re welcome to just not have the conversation. The 2022 election guides don’t just stay open indefinitely. I’ve been happy for people to use them where the new guide hasn’t been published yet, but that’s not the case here. If you want to talk about the Senate races in WA in 2028 you can do those here.

What a dismissive attitude.

It was a silly comment, Wilson.

The 2022 election is finished. The guide is closed. You are perfectly capable of having the conversation here.

Fine, it’s your website, but telling people they’re welcome to just not have the conversation if they disagree with your choices isn’t very nice.

@Ben sorry it was my bad for posting on the other thread. I think I Googled the thread and I got there from Google.

Anyway, can you please do a US open thread?

Also, @Wilson, does it really matter? Come on, the only difference in the title is the last digit of the year.

Also Ben can you open the NSW LGA thread for comments please?

Nether Portal, I simply expressed an opinion. I’m fine with being told no. I’m not fine with someone going past that into telling me to not have a conversation at all. That’s not nice.

Whatever, I’ve said my piece, play on.

Wilson, you are entirely welcome to have your conversation. You just need to do it on the most up-to-date election guide. I don’t want conversations splintered over a decade and a half of election guides. This is an extremely minor request and I was just reminding you that you can go elsewhere if it’s so hard.

Fatima Payman has announced the creation of a new party, Australia’s voice. She claims that it would be for “the disenfranchised and unheard”. The party will mainly be competing with Labor and the Greens.

payman will lose her seat as soon as 2028 comes around its a bit hard nowadays after turnbulls reforms for minor parties to get in in the more populous states. tas, nt and act are an exception due to the lower quotas

@Darcy probably just another Labor/Greens puppet like the teals so it’s essentially just pro-Palestinian Labor.

It’s so unfortunate that this party is gonna be successful. I really do empathise with the people who got sold this idea of “independents” and real policies by the Greens, the teals and this new party.

The teals are meant to be like moderate Liberals like their voters are but if you look at the teals’ voting record you’ll find they’re just Labor/Greens puppets. They all seem to vote with the Greens at least 75% of the time. They represent rich electorates in the inner-city and think they’re in touch but in reality they aren’t, they’re out of touch with everyone.

Putting this here until the seat profile is created. Bullwinkel is very similar to the seat proposed by the Liberal party which means they likely think they can win it

the Nationals are running a candidate for the Senate this time so id say we will likely get 2 Labor 2 Liberal 1 Green and 1 National

John, the poster above, that seems plausible prediction even if the Nationals get a low primary vote. This is because of the recovering Liberal vote and the subsequent preferences directed to them. There is also the crop of right-wing micro parties that will be quite Nationals-friendly. I can see micro parties putting the Nationals ahead of the Liberals.

Another possible result is ALP 2, LIB 3, GRN 1. It’s very unlikely Labor will get their third senator.

@votante the nats do usually poll quite well especially in the regions and haven’t previously run senate candidates and the nats can target there resources at their senate candidate and bulllwinkel whereas the libs have to spread theirs

John, the Nationals just ran in Durack but not O’Connor nor Forrest last election so it was difficult to gauge their popularity in the regions where there were incumbent Liberal MPs.

It depend how well the lnp vote recovers and if the nats vote is strong enough to get them in a contest for the seat. Expect the nats to dump resources at it though. Labor won’t get a 3 Rd senator a second time.they never expected a 3rd senator last time. PAyman was just a token nomination and a surprise winner

John: the Nats usually run senate candidates in WA – 2022 was the first time in ages when they haven’t. They’ve only cracked 5% once in the recent past, in 2013 (which they then couldn’t back up in the 2014 re-do). Last time before then was the 1987 double dissolution (the “Joh for PM” election), when they got 5.5% (0.7 quotas) and missed out on the last seat behind the Democrats and Jo Vallentine. Apart from that, they haven’t got close.

In 2022 the Libs got 3% beyond a second quota, and One Nation got 3.5%, so the Nats have that to chase down even before considering a swing to the Libs in Perth. Plus, they’re also competing with Christians, Shooters, Clive Palmer and whichever other assorted fruits and nuts try their luck for right-wing seat #3.

Anyway, the Nats are gonna be flat out with the state election, running in unwinnable Perth seats in an attempt to get more than two upper house seats. Any money / time / effort they have left for the federal election will be largely spent in Bullwinkel.

there was a newspoll in WA sowing voter sentiment.
35% say labor deserve relection
50% saying give someone else a go
15% uncommited

if the 15% is splt evenly that gives us 42.5-57.5

it should be noter this was a poll conducted against “an empty chair” so it doesnt mean the lib vote is necesarily 57.5 it just means someone other then labor. obviously some of this vote would go the libs, grns and other minor parties and independents and bring that result back away from the libs in 2pp terms

the greens announcement that they are gonna cut gas prjects is probably gonna hurt them and labor here in WA. while it may not directly effect them there are people in perth whose jobs rely on the indsutry.

the WA state election this week wil likely give us a good idea how WA will swing federally. NP are you able to calculate federal seat results based on state seats?

I’m not so sure that’s the case, there will be a sizeable chunk of voters who go Labor at the state level but are not committed federally. I think a Demos Au poll had it at about 1 in 5 Federal liberal voters are intending to vote Labor on Saturday

@maxim agree but if the labor vote tanks in seats that overlap federal seats especially labor ones that will likely be seen as a judgement on federal labor being taken out against state labor. in victoria its the opposite people are punishing the federal govt for state problems