Warringah – Australia 2025

Tab has opened the markets here. $1.35 for the independents to win.

The Liberals have a moderate candidate for the first time since the 1990s so probably a swing here especially on the notional TPP.

Bentley
It’s a single member electorate.

They should cut Zali’s margin quite a bit but they won’t win

The Liberals definitely have a high-profile, talented, and presumably-moderate candidate in Jaimee Rogers, a former sports & TV presenter. Unfortunately for her she’s up against a very popular ex-Olympian Zali Steggall (teal MP for Warringah), who should hold this seat until either retires, Liberals become super-moderate again (very unlikely), or if the teals are on the nose/Zali becomes unpopular in the electorate.

Predicition: IND hold, 6% IND v LIB

@ James
I think the Libs should aim for a primary vote of around 40% and to have a notional TPP margin of around 4-5% against Labor.

Warringah is taking up almost all of North Sydney LGA. At the last election, the Labor primary vote in North Sydney (the electorate) was high and teal vote was low, compared to Warringah’s. The low teal vote, could be attributed to Trent Zimmerman’s personal vote, as a moderate Liberal, as well Labor putting in effort and Kylea Tink not having the political profile as Zali Steggall.

Now those factors are gone. I reckon the North Sydney LGA part will swing teal to the mid to high 30s on primaries whilst Labor’s vote retreats and there’s no Liberal incumbent there like last time. This will be countered by a drop in the teal vote in the remaining parts of Warringah.

Question
Did all the seat of North Sydney go
To Warringah.Bennelong and Bradfield

@Mick Quinlivan – yes it did.

Basically North Sydney Council (the remainder) went to Warringah, Willoughby went to Bradfield (as small apert was already there) and Lane Cove and Hunters Hill went to Bennelong. The only exception is that the West Ward of Willoughby (most of it) went to Bennelong also.

I left a comment on Bradfield as to the difference between the seat swing and the state swing.Here are the figures for Warringah:
Seat swing State swing
2007 -1.0 -3.5
2010 +4.9 +4.1
2013 +2.9 +0.7
2016 -9.2 -4.7
2019 -12.6 -0.4
2022 -1.4 -4.5

Note the swing in 2022 is treated as negative as it was the increase in Steggall’s vote.
Collectively, there has been swing against the Liberals of 23.2% over 3 elections.That figure suggests a correction is coming-whether it is enough to oust Steggall remains to be seen,but if she survives her new margin will likely be a single digit figure.

Today in the Australian:
“The Greens voted against introducing the amendments(to have mandatory sentences for hate crimes) as did some teal independent MPs – Kate Chaney, Zoe Daniel, Helen Haines, Monique Ryan, Zali Steggall, Kylea Tink, and Andrew Wilkie.”
Allegra Spender was in favour, reflecting her constituency.

People in Wentworth are more supportive of mandatory sentencing than people in Warringah?

@bazza – I believe Allegra Spender voted in favour for the hate crime legislation as her electorate of Wentworth is the electorate with the highest amount of Jewish people. Considering the many anti-Semitic attacks in Sydney in the past few weeks, she would have happily voted in favour as she knows she will get a lot of support from the Jewish community and it will show at the next election. Spender, Josh Burns and Julian Leeser are definitely the three MPs who are much-supported by the Jewish community because of the work they have done in the community, and I expect they should likely be re-elected next election. (Josh Burns is still up in the air because of the changing demography in Macnamara)

Might make the race for Goldstein a little spicier

I think voters in seats like Warringah, Wentworth,Goldstein & Kooyong are generally intelligent and educated enough to understand the nuances around details like mandatory sentencing.

Opposing the mandatory sentencing amendment isn’t the same as opposing the hate crime laws themselves; and doesn’t equate to being “soft” on anti-semitism either.

It’s more about whether mandatory sentencing actually works and is effective, or if it can actually be counterproductive. It’s also about the broader philosophy of whether sentencing should be applied on a case by case basis by a judge, or whether a bunch of politicians should be determining it without hearing individual cases.

I think in this case most of the teals (apart from Allegra Spender) have done a good job giving their constituents enough credit to assume they understand that.

Where did Monique Ryan go on mandatory sentences? If it is a Jewish hot button issue – she is at risk.

Voted against it all the teals bar Spender who for obvious reasons voted against as did Helen Haines

That should read spender who voted for it the others all voted against it. Is think still in parliament?

Regarding mandatory sentencing for hate crimes, Senators Rennick, Antic and Babet all voted against it too.

Because they believe that saying something inflammatory, grossly offensive and liable to cause community harm is freedom of speech and should be allowed without any filters. There is a fine line – that is why it is a wicked problem.

@Trent.
A bit optimistic I think.
The truth is everyone has their prejudices,you and me included.

Zali Steggall’s seat has part of the Northern Beaches Council in it(all areas north of North Harbour-see Ben’s map).I raised the troubles of the Northern Beaches Council in the Mackellar thread.
Now she has another potential problem.North Sydney Council has voted for a 199% rate rise.The main reason is the cost of restoring North Sydney Pool which is going to cost $120m,$89m over budget.
Pretty well all of North Sydney Council LGA is in Steggall’s electorate(the exception is a small triangular portion between St Leonard’s and Crows Nest which is in Bradfield).
The Council is dominated by independents.
It’s likely she might cop some of the blame notwithstanding having nothing to do with her.
Ben,
Can you assist by telling the numbers in the booths?

Sorry,199% should read 100%.
The Council consists of 2 Liberals,1 ALP,1 Green and 6 Independents,some of whom are Teals.
The Liberals opposed the rate rise,wanting assets to be sold.

Sabena,

none of the North Sydney Independents are Teals. Some are women, but that does not make them Teals.
The Liberal aligned Independents were the ones that pushed for this overly complex and unnecessary upgrade in the first place. They should be the ones with their heads on the chopping block.

The North Sydney rate rise is 87%. Not all independent female councillors are teals. In councils like North Sydney, Mosman and Northern Beaches, it’s largely made up with localised groups and independents. This has been the case for many terms, even before teal independents became a thing.

High Street & Votante,
I think you are missing the point-this is a development that won’t help Zali Steggall.
Incidentally there was a story on Sky News yesterday that Council rates have been rising much faster than the rate of inflation:
https://www.skynews.com.au/business/real-estate/surging-council-rates-are-acting-as-a-silent-mortgage-that-makes-home-ownership-increasingly-unaffordable/news-story/c107fbd86d784b92224b5f561726bdc7
In an election where the cost of living is an issue,this could be a wild card in some electorates.

what a rip off. if you look at council expenditure rather then raise rates youd find a whole heap of waste. Unnecssary overseas trips for bs conferences taht can be done on zoom, pushing the woke agenda like climate action and studies for minority groups anything that has nothing to do with running the services for ratepayers and residents needs to be cut. not to mention highly inflated council jobs that earn way to much. we need Elon Musk to come in and find the waste.

@john
Mr Musk is a cancer on the world .
Woke is just a word of derision used by the right.. the culture wars are a useless distraction that you use when you don’t have policies. In between is the real stuff
About the protection of those who are not able to claw their way throughout the world.

NSW has had rate pegging since 1978 and there has been pegging for several years in Victoria. It is like any sort of price control, sooner or later it will break. Council rate rise are pegged at below inflation levels so either services are reduced or there are exemptions and that is when the rates rises are 100% or so. The system is at fault and it would be better if they were just allowed to self adjust. It is a classic cheap populist ploy. That does not excuse North Sydney Council for what seems like gross mismanagement of a major project. Have various consultants had to call their PI Insurer?
Victoria will hit the same wall at some stage as well.

And really how can it rub off on Zali Steggall? If she had been a Councillor, yes but otherwise No.

Redistributed and Sabena, another point that would make the rate rises for North Sydney Council seem less significant is that this area is known to be ‘affluent’ in nature. It is definitely not considered a mortgage belt area and those who live here (either owning homes outright or renting) are likely to be those on higher incomes and/or young couples without children. These types of people would not be affected as much by cost-of-living factors, which are more significant for those in the middle ring and outer suburbs where families with children dominate.

Not taking any position on the immediately above topic, as I am not informed enough and even if I was, I’d have to decide if I wanted to add.

John – “if you look at council expenditure rather then raise rates youd find a whole heap of waste. Unnecssary overseas trips for bs conferences taht can be done on zoom, pushing the woke agenda like climate action and studies for minority groups anything that has nothing to do with running the services for ratepayers and residents needs to be cut.”

Rather that broad sweeping generalised statements, can you please point readers to North Sydney Council’s expenditure on overseas trips, climate action and studies on minority groups. Following note of said expenditure items, please highlight which you consider should be discontinued.

Yoh An
There would be a lot retirees in North Sydney – possibly asset rich but also not living on a huge income able to absorb a big rate increase easily. The rates might have been quite hefty to start with though there is a big commercial sector which might be able to provide a cushion to the residents.

@mick so what if you care about those causes spend your own money on fighting the culture wars not that of ratepayers. ratepayers pay their rates to have services like libraries, roads, rubbish collection and what not not so you can push your personal agenda on behalf of everyone with other peoples money. its not the councils job to talk about climate change or how they reckon israel is illegally occupying some distant land and spend ratepayers money on trying to fight the culture wars thats why the council is broke and has to tax their way out of the financial hole they dug themselves look at all the rorting musk found. Councils dont need to go on ratepayers funded overseas trips. they are basically just justiying spending other peoples money on their holidays.

@yoh an it doesnt matter how affluent it may be they are not all weealthy people liveing in the NS council area and even then it doesnt justify hiking rakes just to fund whatever defeceit that council created. if those people want that hike they should take it to an election. I hope everyone of them gets booted out at the next concils elections

@G im not sure it was specific to North Sydney council but im certain it was. but Sky News has been covering this for the last few days and have detailed expenditures of a few NSW councils spending money on things like overseas trips to the netherlands tor a library conference etc etc. Councils mentioned specifically i can remember are Blacktown, Parramatta and Kuring-ai. Im certain Northern beaches and North Sydney were among them when i can find the specific clips il post the link here.

rate rises are notionally linked to land price increases – though in NSW they have an upper limit – around 3.5%
The issue is that land prices have risen by a much higher rate than the “pegged” limit so councils have been forgoing revenue that they helped by making investments into the area.
For example, in my area there is a large park with many facilities that is popular with families so if you live closer to that park your house is more expensive. The council has the cost of the upkeep there and the benefits disproportionally go to the land holders

Also it will be interesting to see if the people of the area equate the independents at the federal level with the independents at the local level no matter how much news corp push that narrative

The North Sydney Pool revamp was a big reason for the rate rises. It’s been controversial from the get go with cost blowouts and delays. Before that Trent Zimmerman scored a federal grant for this project when these grants were supposedly reserved for regional areas only. This may or may not spurred the upgrade.

Naturally any bill shock or sharp 87% rise in a cost of living expense can generate despair and anger. I read that the current council rates are actually low compared to comparable councils but people generally compare their before and after rates rather than compare themselves with other councils.

There is probably a bigger question in the North Sydney council issue around large projects, whether the projects should be off loaded to a higher level of Government or maybe some king of special levy (with a plebiscite or something). However, there is nothing wrong with a cap on rate increases, a lot of Government services would benefit from a bit of fiscal discipline.

@ redistributed
“And really how can it rub off on Zali Steggall? If she had been a Councillor, yes but otherwise No.”
All very logical-but politics is not logical.
The federal election will be the first time after the events at North Sydney and Northern Beaches for voters to express themselves.Steggall and Scamps will be hoping that tempers cool and that the actions of other independents do not damage the brand.

Also re council rates – the Northern Beaches council complaint is that funding from state level to councils has been reduced over the years. Not sure how much truth there is to that

Update on the North Sydney Council rate rise:
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/council-accused-of-planning-rate-hike-before-community-input-after-ignoring-desperate-pleas-from-public/news-story/9073f99cc214a13378485cd58cde764c
Steggall would be well advised to join the objecting residents.

I reckon the jacking up of rates in northern beaches and North Sydney will drive residents out and therefore mean warringa and mackellar will need to expand further at the next redistribution

The future expansion of Warringah and Mackeller is moreso because they aren’t densifying as much as say, the middle-ring and outer-ring suburbs.

@Darth Vader if paying rates is an issue for anyone it would likely be single pensioners living in a 4 bedroom house. If they sell up due to rates being too high then it would be more likely to go to a family

I doubt many houses will be demolished due to high rates and lower the eligible voter pool

Also if rates are too high and people sell their property there is more chance of it being replaced with denser housing

@bazza You are exactly right, regarding the sale of property opening the door to its replacement with denser housing. Almost makes you wonder whether the rate rises are deliberately engineered to guarantee such consequences.