LIB 3.5% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Dan Tehan, since 2010.
Geography
South-western Victoria. Wannon covers the southwestern corner of Victoria, including Warrnambool, Portland, Ararat, Lorne and Hamilton. Wannon covers Colac Otway, Ararat, Corangamite, Glenelg, Moyne, Southern Grampians and Warrnambool council areas, most of the Surf Coast council area, about half of the Pyrenees council area, and a small part of the Golden Plains council area.
Redistribution
Wannon expanded to the east towards Geelong, taking in Inverleigh, Modewarre and Moriac from Corangamite. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 3.9% to 3.5%.
History
Wannon is an original federation seat, having been created for the 1901 election. It has mainly been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors, with the exception of a number of short periods when it was held by the ALP, with the ALP last holding the seat up to the 1955 election.
Wannon was first won in 1901 by Free Trade candidate Samuel Cooke. Cooke was a former minister in the Victorian colonial government, and he held the seat for one term before heading overseas in 1903.
He was succeeded in 1903 by another Free Trader, Arthur Robinson, who was a former colonial/state MP in the Victorian Parliament. Robinson held the seat for one term, losing in 1906. He went on to return to the Victorian Parliament and serve as a state minister.
The ALP’s John McDougall won Wannon off Robinson in 1906, campaigning against Robinson’s anti-union views. McDougall was re-elected in 1910, but lost in 1913, and failed to return to the House of Representatives in other seats at the 1914 election, a 1915 by-election and the 1917 election.
McDougall was replaced in 1913 by Liberal candidate Arthur Rodgers. Rodgers served as a minister in the Hughes government from 1920 to 1922 He held the seat until the 1922 election, when he lost to the ALP’s John McNeill. Rodgers won the seat back in 1925, before again losing to McNeill in 1929. McNeill served as a minister in the Scullin government, before losing the seat yet again in 1931.
The United Australia Party’s Thomas Scholfield won the seat in 1931, and held it until 1940, when he lost to the ALP’s Donald McLeod. McLeod held the seat for most of the next decade, losing it in 1949 to the Liberal Party’s Daniel Mackinnon.
Mackinnon only held the seat for one term, with McLeod regaining the seat in 1951. Mackinnon went on to win the neighbouring seat of Corangamite in a 1953 by-election, and held it until 1966.
At the 1954 election, McLeod was challenged by Liberal candidate Malcolm Fraser. McLeod defeated Fraser with a 17-vote margin.
In 1955, McLeod retired, and Fraser won the seat with a comfortable margin.
Fraser was a right-winger within the Liberal Party, and sat on the backbenches for a decade before joining the ministry in 1966. He served first as Minister for the Army, then Minister for Education and Science, and then Minister for Defence.
In 1971, he resigned from the ministry in protest at John Gorton’s interference in his portfolio, triggering a party room vote which saw a tied vote, and John Gorton was replaced as Prime Minister by William McMahon.
Fraser served as a minister in the McMahon government and on the opposition frontbench in the first term of the Whitlam government. After Billy Snedden’s loss in 1974 Fraser challenged for the leadership. Under Fraser’s leadership, the Liberal Party obstructed Gough Whitlam’s government in the Senate, which eventually led to Whitlam being dismissed by the Governor-General in late 1975, and Fraser became Prime Minister.
Fraser won the 1975, 1977 and 1980 elections, but lost in 1983, and retired from Parliament shortly after.
The 1983 by-election was won by David Hawker, also of the Liberal Party. Hawker served as an opposition whip from 1989 to 1990 and as a frontbencher from 1990 to 1993, and again as a whip until the 1996 election.
Hawker served as a backbencher in the Howard government from 1996 until the 2004 election. Hawker was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives after the 2004 election, and served in the role until the 2007 election.
Hawker retired in 2010, and the seat was won by Dan Tehan. Tehan has been re-elected four times.
- Alex Dyson (Independent)
- Kate Gazzard (Greens)
- Dan Tehan (Liberal)
Assessment
Independent candidate Alex Dyson wasn’t too far away from winning in 2022. The political environment has changed since 2022, which may make things easier for Tehan in a repeat contest.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dan Tehan | Liberal | 44,948 | 44.5 | -6.6 | 44.2 |
| Gilbert Wilson | Labor | 19,303 | 19.1 | -6.9 | 19.6 |
| Alex Dyson | Independent | 19,504 | 19.3 | +9.6 | 18.7 |
| Hilary McAllister | Greens | 6,444 | 6.4 | -0.4 | 6.7 |
| Craige Kensen | United Australia | 3,308 | 3.3 | -2.3 | 3.3 |
| Ronnie Graham | One Nation | 3,275 | 3.2 | +3.2 | 3.2 |
| Graham Garner | Independent | 2,346 | 2.3 | +2.3 | 2.2 |
| Amanda Mead | Liberal Democrats | 1,973 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 2.0 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 5,603 | 5.3 | +1.5 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dan Tehan | Liberal | 54,517 | 53.9 | 53.5 | |
| Alex Dyson | Independent | 46,584 | 46.1 | 46.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dan Tehan | Liberal | 59,722 | 59.1 | -1.1 | 58.7 |
| Gilbert Wilson | Labor | 41,379 | 40.9 | +1.1 | 41.3 |
Booths have been divided into six areas. The two local government areas in the north-east of the seat have been grouped together. The four in the south-east have also been grouped together. Polling places in the other four local government areas have been grouped along council boundaries.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in five out of six areas, ranging from 51.6% in Glenelg to 56.3% in the north-east. Alex Dyson polled 56% in Warrnambool.
| Voter group | ALP prim | IND prim | LIB 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 19.2 | 16.9 | 54.2 | 18,775 | 18.0 |
| Warrnambool | 13.4 | 37.5 | 44.0 | 9,634 | 9.2 |
| Moyne | 12.0 | 29.1 | 55.0 | 6,201 | 5.9 |
| Glenelg | 25.9 | 19.0 | 51.6 | 5,076 | 4.9 |
| North-East | 25.3 | 12.6 | 56.3 | 4,828 | 4.6 |
| Southern Grampians | 13.5 | 27.6 | 54.8 | 4,253 | 4.1 |
| Pre-poll | 21.6 | 20.1 | 54.0 | 40,710 | 39.0 |
| Other votes | 19.7 | 15.5 | 57.2 | 15,021 | 14.4 |
Election results in Wannon at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal vs Independent or Labor), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidates and Labor.
That depends mick where was your dad born
That depends mick where and when your dad born. Also where and when your grandfather was born and other factors. Ireland wasn’t a sovereign state until 1922. So technically your great grand dad was British and woukdnt be considered an Irish citizen until 1922.
Mick
I would be in a similar situation as my Great Grandmother was born in Ireland in 1858. My father could have applied to become an Irish citizen. However, I could only apply to be an Irish passport holder if my father had been an Irish citizen when I was born. So I would not be eligible as he never did. It is very hard to know where these things start and stop. At least, now potential candidates have to at least stop and think about it.
As above it would depend if she was still living ther/alive in 1922 as Ireland wasn’t not a sovereign state until 1922
@john/ redistributed
Not that it really matters My great. Granddad born 1860 odd died 1947
I was trying to explain how complicated it was. Someone born Poland say 1928 after ww2 East Germany then Germany 1987? Unification
I have done some analysis of Alex Dyson’s donations.
Full credit to him for having them out there.
Since August – 1324 individual donations totalling $542, 655.43
405 anonymous donations totalling $42,512.51 – if similar proportion to the named donors this would be 300 individual donors
694 named donors – that includes people who have donated more than once
Donors $5,000 and upwards
Kevin and Ruth Owens $5,000.00
Richard Davies $5,000.00
Voices of Wannon $6,500.00
Marie Bird $10,000.00
Regional Voices Fund $20,000.00
Eve Kantor & Mark Wootton $25,000.00
Keep Them Honest Pty Ltd $50,000.00
Rob Keldoulis $50,000.00
Climate 200 $249,102.00
So compared to Deb Leonard, Alex Dyson has a lot more donors and fewer big donors. The number of individual donors would be of concern to Dan Tehan as these people could turn out to volunteer etc. More grass roots – less money. Besides Climate 200, Keep them Honest and and Regional Voices Fund have turned up again. Rob Keldoulis has also been a major donor to Climate 200 so some individuals are pumping in serious money
It’s Dyson’s 3rd run – you’d expect more behind it and it’s long been thought he’s at least half a chance so not surprising to me
The Greens have announced Dr Kate Gazzard as their new candidate for Wannon. A former Surf Coast shire councillor, Gazzard is probably the highest profile Green in the electorate. Being from the eastern end of Wannon will benefit Dyson in the areas where he was weaker in 2022.
Worth a bet…. keeps sitting mp busy
I’d say this will be close, but Tehan will probably win
Internal Liberal Party sources say Dan Tehan is gone here. Alex Dyson has 2.50 odds on Sportsbet, I’d jump on that.
I work in the agricultural sector and spend a lot of time down in Wannon. I was in Camperdown and surrounds last week, the Dyson campaign is much more prominent in the East this time compared to 2022. Even some of the old farmers I was talking to are switching their votes. It will be closer than last time, but whether that’s enough for Dyson I’m not sure.
My corflute count while I was out there was 24-9 Dyson’s way. Those Orange Kelpie cut-outs that Dyson has are certainly popping up all over.
Every safe Liberal seat will elect a Teal, but one time only, imo.
In Wannon, Alex Dyson is home and hosed, but please place a bet on desperate Dan.
I see that Dyson’s campaign has gotten traction and it’s probably the biggest teal or Voices campaign in Victoria (for a non-incumbent).
I would be interested to know how many and why Tehan’s voters might be switching to Dyson. Could ageism have been a factor in the past? Dyson was 30 when he ran in 2019. What’s Tehan’s personal popularity like?
The vibe from all reports here points to Alex Dyson winning. I saw a report on the ABC a few weeks ago on the contest in Wannon and Dan Tehan is certainly not appearing to be campaigning like it’s a safe seat.
There are reports in the AFR that Alex Dyson is starting to have trouble over the Warrnambool offshore windfarm. He refuses to commit either way on what is a major issue in that part of the electorate. He is licking the can down the road and looking like he is swinging in the breeze.
A Teal weathervane, eh?
There’s a few. Kate did a [very stylish] 180 on live sheep exports.
Alex Dyson is running a bigger ground campaign than he did in 2022. Predicting he will ultimately win, though it won’t be clear on election night, provided he doesn’t stumble or say anything off par.