Wannon – Australia 2025

There is a large fire burning in the Grampians, at the northern end of the electorate. Could this help the independent?

How does a fire help the independent unless the incumbent abandons his duties in the recovery.

@John I think what Darcy means is the climate change factor could help the independent.

I see what you’re saying but I personally don’t think it’ll make a difference.

I think the demographics changes are whats going to help the independent however, I personally feel that the whole independent wave peaked in 2022 with the exception of Bradfield I don’t think any other seats will fall to teal/independents this election cycle.

@nether it’s a bushfire bushes have been burning for as long as people here can remember. Climate change won’t away this election. This election is about cost of living. Tehan to retain easily.

@John I agree that it won’t change much here but I see why Darcy is asking.

I personally think economic issues are most at stake this election given how bad the economy is at the moment with the COL crisis and housing/rental prices and inflation. Only affluent or inner-city voters will be not concerned about the economy this time around.

It’s a good point that many people, especially in this seat that can be quite marginalised, will care about the economy. I think Dyson is going to significantly increase his vote, but only from Labor and Greens. This is a bit like how some areas that were well burnt during the Black Summer, while voting as normal over 50 percent for the Coalition, had the Greens come second behind Labor.

A fire nearly ran through Beaufort township (northern end of the electorate) earlier this year and believe me no one in town was whining about climate change, even the local greenies were mostly concerned simply with how many burned trees the council were removing from roadsides.

Dyson is popular in Warrnambool but his 2pp was flattered by some very poor preference flow to Tehan in 2022, Tehan to retain on a similar or slightly larger margin this time

Accept high interest rates and col pressures are a problem for Labor.
So what does Dutton do?
He promised no sugar hits ie assistance re specific prices.
Will the Reserve bank be requested to lose it’s independence and cut interest rates?
Of interest in this seat the non liberal vote in Ararat could grow!

Getting Liberal fliers in the mail that essentially call Dyson a ‘teal’ and now one today about some random old remark he made about changing the date of Australia Day – culture wars are on!

Already getting Dyson ads on youtube too

Mr Dyson did well along with Coast. Portland Warnambool and probably broke even in Hamilton. Which are how Labor would win if they had the capacity but they are at least 5% sway from this.

There are teal-ish areas along the Great Ocean Road and there’s strong support in Dyson’s hometown of Warrnambool. However, his vote inland is quite weak. I don’t know where Dyson lives but I think he’d stand a much better chance in the state seat of Polwarth, which overlaps with the eastern part of Wannon.

@Votante
Dyson lives in Woodford, just inland from Warrnambool, from memory.

Not sure I can conflate Teals in Regional Area with Teals in Inner Cities because I feel they are more ‘Country-Minded Independents’ focusing on local issues and given regional seats voted heavily No on the Voice, it is much harder to portray Dutton as a social conservative unlike the Inner-city Teals.

@Witness, got it. If Dyson is living in Woodford or Warrnambool then Polwarth, the state seat, is out of scope unless he moves. His identity is associated with Warrnambool. Polwarth on paper appears like a better teal target as it’s an ‘always Liberal’ seat with a strong, emerging Green vote.

Polwarth moving east into the surf coast is what’s doing that rather than the demographics shifting underneath the Liberals feet like in Kooyong for example. Polwarth is centred on Colac and the surrounding dairy farming land but increasingly the Geelong/surf coast edge has been going down the toilet for the Liberals while the Labor/greens brand has been strengthening due to tree/sea-changers and young families moving in. Neither parts of the district lend themselves to the typical teal profile IMO

Marginal LNP vs ALP seats make for bad teal/independent targets anyway as Labor wouldn’t want to just run dead in them if they are not far from taking the seat for themselves. See Hawthorn 2022 (and likely a bunch of federal seats later this year…)

Polwarth.. the margin last state election approx 2% lib. This seat is 1 to 2 elections away from being a 50/50 seat.

If Alex Dyson is to win this seat, this is the election that he’s going to do it. He’s everywhere and his campaign have set up and are staffing field offices across the electorate – which as a campaign development is huge. This and Bradfield will be independent gains IMO.

How does his current campaign compare to that of 2022?

If Dyson beats Tehan in this seat then I reckon alarms will be deafening at Liberal HQ. To pull off an upset against a former cabinet and current shadow cabinet minister would be extraordinary, so extraordinary that I just don’t think it will happen.

I’d say marginal Liberal hold but if Dyson gets in then the Liberals can kiss goodbye to Minority government.

The thing is with time the electorate will need ti include more of the surf coast Geelong over spill and Ballarat excess..All those areas hurt the liberal vote. Mallee will probably acquire Hamilton and other rural areas from this electorate asit will lose population as well

Dyson running a much bigger campaign, the focus is very much not on certain issues (climate, integrity etc) but there is a huge focus on ‘community’ ‘local issues’ etc and basically making the case for having an unaligned indi in there instead of a major party. Liberals are trying to portray him as a progressive with anti-Australia Day views etc.

Suspect with his profile and the general awareness of the teals Dyson can expect a much improved primary (30-35%) but probably less favourable preference flows. So long as Tehan keeps his primary around 43% or so I reckon he’ll be fine

“huge focus on ‘community’ ‘local issues’ etc”

So nothing then? Just flim flam and motherhood statements rather than anything specific?

There was another independent running last time who won about 2.3% of the vote. For Dyson to get to 30-35% he would need to pickup those votes and reduce Labor to single figures. Otherwise really eat into Tehans primary vote big time. Has Tehan done anything to specifically get voters off side? That was where Sophie Mirabella, Tony Abbott and to some extent Tim Wilson came unstuck. Independents can get talked up as well – Carol Altmann was talked up in South West Coast at the last state election – but only managed 14% and a poor third.

The current claim is that this is the ‘listening’ part of the campaign – he’s making a lot of vague promises to fix the roads and such but really the issues that got teals elected (climate in particular) he’s been very silent on. No substantive policy claims from what I see (and he’s spending up a storm on social media.

I agree re: the standing of the sitting MP, Dyson’s supporters say he’s a bit of a do-nothing MP but I don’t think he’s uniquely unpopular and I doubt he’ll lose much primary (if any) to Dyson in this cycle. The swing to the Liberals in South West Coast in the VIC election certainly makes for an interesting dynamic given that’s where Dyson’s heartland is.

The Greens have announced Lauren Green as their candidate. She is an artist and hospitality worker from Winchelsea, which is at the eastern end of the electorate, adjacent to the areas that have been transferred from Corangamite. This will no doubt help Dyson in one of his weaker areas.

Having seen Dyson for the first time on the 4C doco, I have to say I wasn’t impressed. Not sure why, but he didn’t strike me as a serious candidate. Maybe ran as a joke the first time, got a good result, ran again and got a better result so feels he has to run again?

Also, why is this seat (and some other rural Victorian seats) Liberal not National?

Dyson think is very much a serious candidate. The liberals seem to be popular in the south West rather than the nats.wannon Fraser Hawker then Teehan since 1955

The Liberals have always been stronger south of the Grampians. Wannon prior to 1955 was highly marginal and the Corangamite – before moving into Geelong – was always a Lib seat. Nats largely in the North and Gippsland – Libs in the North East and South West. Though Victorian seats are contested by both when there is a vacancy.

@mick tehan since 1955 he looks good for a man that’s at least 85

I was more after a reason why? Is it a hangover from old Free Trade vs Protectionism fights, or a legacy of a particular industry or something else?

@Mostly Labor Voter , woolgrowers have generally been supportive of the Liberal Party.

Graingrowers seem to prefer The Nationals.

Some Corangamite Liberal MPs (Tony Street, Stewart McArthur) were huge advocates for free trade.

Grain growers were susceptible to the old bush agrarian socialism so gravitated toward the Nationals during the 20th century. Wool growers were originally more free market orientated until the socialism of the wool reserve price scheme gained ascendency in the 1970s and a lot of wool producers got on board with the Nationals.

Not sure but most of Wannon is Warnambool which is a service hub rather than agricultural so more supportive of the Liberals. Indi is the same as most of it is Wodonga

No I. Listed lib mps since 1955

Thanks all – so seems like a hangover from the free trade vs protectionism issue based around a couple of rural industries.

Good to have an idea of something that seems quite strange.

That makes.more sense

Wannon has cities
Warnambool
Ararat
Portland
Hamilton
The surf Coast has been added too
There would not be many nat votes there

@mick no difference the nats have previously contested all overlapping state seats when there was no sitting liberal member and currently hold Lowan in the victorian parliamnet. the nats last contested Wannon in 1983 when fraser retired. though it has only had 1 oppurtunity since then. i think they decided not ot contest it in 2010. So we can assume the reason the nats havent run in Wannon is there has been no oppurtunity to run. the nats will not put up a candiate with a sitting Liberal member present. the libs and nats are in a coalition and its dumb to run against yourself and try to win a seat off yourself because its a waste of resources.

@dragons the nats have contested Indi since 2016 as their is no sitting Liberal member. and they will likely contest the State seat of Benambra now Bill Tilley has retired.

Whoops… almost a S44 moment: Greens candidate withdraws due to dual citizenship here. Related article: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-20/greens-candidate-drops-out-in-wannon-hot-seat/104959112

You’d think the vetting process for this would be more stringent after what happened during the last term of parliament. Although Greens have no chance here with Alex Dyson running again. Still thinking LIB retain.

Section 44 is a stupid rule that excludes so many good people from running for, and being elected to, parliament. From what I have read, the candidate was in the process of renouncing citizenship but the processing times from her ancestral country were far too slow to meet the election timeline.

I have no issue with our parliamentary representatives having a commitment to one country – this one. If people want to run – part of that commitment is having to renounce another citizenship. There can be no question of divided loyalties especially in our currently unstable world. Renouncing is a serious decision and it may take time – that is part of the commitment. And guess what, for some of us, having another passport besides an Australian one is not an option. If the good people want to run and be elected they can make a commitment to one country.

@redistributed…fully agree with you. Loyalty to Australia cannot be questioned for MP’s or Senator’s. Common sense.

From what i understand its you have to take all reasonable steps to renonunce. Wiating on it to be fprocessed fits to this criteria. Hence why Fatima payman is still in Parliament

It’s easy to say “just renounce” but the practical reality is that it excludes people who have no question of divided loyalty and don’t use their other passport. Often they may not realise they have it. It’s just not a practical system because it is dependent on knowledge of other countries’ laws and those laws being practical to use.

I would be happy to have a rule that says that someone has to commit to a renunciation process under Australian law that is consistent and is easy to understand, and it should apply before someone can sit in Parliament, rather than prohibiting all citizens from even running. This candidate has no chance of winning, it’s a waste of everyone’s time.

Ben it’s in the Constitution and we don’t have much of a record amending that. Curiously it’s reach is far wider than when it was adopted in 1900 because the meaning of “foreign power” is obviously ambulatory.

Lowan although it includes Hamilton is another level of anti Labor vote like the seat of Mallee.
Wannon tends to split 60/40 against Labor

Mallee splits 70/30

Of course it’s unlikely to be changed but there’s no need to pretend that it’s a good rule or works well.

My great grand dad was born in Ireland in 1860. My Dad born 1931. I think could have qualified for Irish Citizenship by descent. This means maybe I could have qualified based on my dad.
This is really crazy.. neither I or Dad have ever been overseas and have no ties with Ireland.
For. politicans there should be a renunciation act
” I renounce Citizenship of any country besides Australia effectively from….’
This should suffice irrespective of the processing times or contrary laws of the other country