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There is a large fire burning in the Grampians, at the northern end of the electorate. Could this help the independent?
How does a fire help the independent unless the incumbent abandons his duties in the recovery.
@John I think what Darcy means is the climate change factor could help the independent.
I see what you’re saying but I personally don’t think it’ll make a difference.
I think the demographics changes are whats going to help the independent however, I personally feel that the whole independent wave peaked in 2022 with the exception of Bradfield I don’t think any other seats will fall to teal/independents this election cycle.
@nether it’s a bushfire bushes have been burning for as long as people here can remember. Climate change won’t away this election. This election is about cost of living. Tehan to retain easily.
@John I agree that it won’t change much here but I see why Darcy is asking.
I personally think economic issues are most at stake this election given how bad the economy is at the moment with the COL crisis and housing/rental prices and inflation. Only affluent or inner-city voters will be not concerned about the economy this time around.
It’s a good point that many people, especially in this seat that can be quite marginalised, will care about the economy. I think Dyson is going to significantly increase his vote, but only from Labor and Greens. This is a bit like how some areas that were well burnt during the Black Summer, while voting as normal over 50 percent for the Coalition, had the Greens come second behind Labor.
A fire nearly ran through Beaufort township (northern end of the electorate) earlier this year and believe me no one in town was whining about climate change, even the local greenies were mostly concerned simply with how many burned trees the council were removing from roadsides.
Dyson is popular in Warrnambool but his 2pp was flattered by some very poor preference flow to Tehan in 2022, Tehan to retain on a similar or slightly larger margin this time