Incumbent Senators
| Term due to expire 2025 | Term due to expire 2028 |
| Raff Ciccone (Labor) | Ralph Babet (United Australia) |
| Steph Hodgins-May (Greens)1 | Lisa Darmanin (Labor)4 |
| Jane Hume (Liberal) | Sarah Henderson (Liberal) |
| James Paterson (Liberal) | Bridget McKenzie (Nationals) |
| David Van (Independent)2 | Jana Stewart (Labor) |
| Jess Walsh (Labor) | Lidia Thorpe (Independent)3 |
1Steph Hodgins-May replaced Janet Rice on 1 May 2024 following Rice’s resignation.
2David Van resigned from the Liberal Party on 17 June 2023 to become an independent, after being expelled from the Liberal party room.
3Lidia Thorpe resigned from the Greens on 6 February 2023 to become an independent.
4Lisa Darmanin replaced Linda White on 29 May 2024 after White died on 29 February 2024.
History
The 1951 election, which was the first to result in a Senate entirely elected by proportional representation, gave an overall result of 5 ALP senators, 4 Liberal senators and one Country Party senator. The 1953 election saw the ALP gain a seat off the Liberals, giving them a 6-4 majority. This was the only time the ALP, or any party, won a majority of Victoria’s Senate delegation under PR.
The 1955 election saw the party that became the Democratic Labor Party win a seat off the ALP. At the 1961 election, both the DLP and the ALP lost a Senate seat, with the Liberals winning two, giving them five seats, with three ALP and one each for the DLP and Country Party. In 1964, the DLP regained their single Senate seat from the Liberal Party. In 1967, the DLP gained a second seat off the Country Party, who were left with no Victorian senators.
The 1970 election saw the Country Party regain their seat, off the ALP. The ALP was reduced to three seats, with four Liberals and two DLP senators. The 1974 double dissolution saw the ALP regain ground, with both DLP senators being defeated, and the ALP gaining two seats, bringing their contingent to five out of ten senators.
The 1975 double dissolution reduced the ALP to four seats, with the National Country Party gaining a second seat. The 1977 election saw former Liberal minister Don Chipp elected to the Senate for the newly-formed Australian Democrats. The National Country Party lost one of its senators to the Democrats. The 1980 election saw the NCP lose its other seat to the Democrats.
In the 1983 double dissolution, the ALP gained a fifth seat at the expense of the second Democrats senator. At the 1984 election, an increase in Senators saw the Liberals and Democrats each gain an extra seat. The Democrats again lost their second Victorian senator at the 1987 double dissolution to Nationals candidate Julian McGauran.
The 1990 election saw McGauran defeated, and the Democrats again regain their second seat. The 1993 election saw the Democrats lose a seat yet again to the Nationals. This produced a result of five each for the ALP and Liberals, and one each for the Nationals and Democrats. This status quo was maintained until the 2004 election, when the ALP lost one of its five senate seats to Family First’s Steven Fielding.
The 2007 election saw the ALP regain a fifth seat at the expense of the Democrats, who lost their last Victorian senator. In 2010, the Coalition lost one of their three seats, and Family First’s Steve Fielding also lost his seat. These two seats went to the Greens’ Richard Di Natale and the Democratic Labor Party’s John Madigan, shifting the split from 4-2 to the right to 3-3.
In 2013, both Labor and Liberal lost their third seat, to the Greens and Ricky Muir of the Motoring Enthusiasts Party.
The 2016 double dissolution produced two changes. Labor and Greens maintained four and two seats respectively. The Coalition regained a fifth seat, while Derryn Hinch won a seat as an independent. Ricky Muir and John Madigan both lost their seats.
Labor and the Greens maintained their numbers in 2019, while the Liberal Party gained an extra seat at the expense of Derryn Hinch.
Labor and the Greens maintained their numbers yet again in 2022. The Liberal Party lost their last seat to the United Australia Party’s Ralph Babet.
| Group | Votes | % | Swing | Quota |
| Liberal/Nationals | 1,233,930 | 32.3 | -3.6 | 2.2602 |
| Labor | 1,201,830 | 31.4 | +0.3 | 2.2014 |
| Greens | 529,429 | 13.9 | +3.3 | 0.9698 |
| United Australia | 153,231 | 4.0 | +1.5 | 0.2807 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 114,805 | 3.0 | +1.5 | 0.2103 |
| One Nation | 111,176 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.2036 |
| Liberal Democrats | 92,295 | 2.4 | +1.4 | 0.1691 |
| Animal Justice | 57,836 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.1059 |
| Hinch’s Justice Party | 54,366 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 0.0996 |
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 49,750 | 1.3 | -0.6 | 0.0911 |
| Reason | 37,402 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 0.0685 |
| Democrats | 28,693 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.0526 |
| Victorian Socialists | 21,739 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.0398 |
| Others | 135,057 | 3.5 | 0.2474 | |
| Informal | 139,419 | 3.5 |
Preference flows
Four seats were won on primary votes: two for the Coalition and two for Labor. Greens senator Lidia Thorpe also reached a quota relatively early in the count after the party polled 0.97 quotas on primary votes.
Let’s fast forward to the last ten candidates competing for the final seat:
- Ralph Babet (UAP) – 0.3063 quotas
- Greg Mirabella (LIB) – 0.2834
- Elissa Smith (LGC) – 0.2411
- Casey Nunn (ALP) – 0.2406
- Warren Pickering (ON) – 0.2393
- David Limbrick (LDP) – 0.2024
- Bronwyn Currie (AJP) – 0.1443
- Derryn Hinch (DHJ) – 0.1247
- Ethan Constantinou (SFF) – 0.1045
- Yolanda Vega (RP) – 0.0889
Reason preferences favoured Labor, Legalise Cannabis, Liberal and Animal Justice:
- Babet (UAP) – 0.3074
- Mirabella (LIB) – 0.2994
- Nunn (ALP) – 0.2666
- Pickering (ON) – 0.2399
- Smith (LGC) – 0.2583
- Limbrick (LDP) – 0.2036
- Currie (AJP) – 0.1575
- Hinch (DHJ) – 0.1302
- Constantinou (SFF) – 0.1055
Shooters preferences favoured One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, Liberal and Labor:
- Babet (UAP) – 0.3184
- Mirabella (LIB) – 0.3125
- Nunn (ALP) – 0.2795
- Smith (LGC) – 0.2755
- Pickering (ON) – 0.2640
- Limbrick (LDP) – 0.2094
- Currie (AJP) – 0.1660
- Hinch (DHJ) – 0.1371
Hinch’s preferences favoured Labor:
- Mirabella (LIB) – 0.3332
- Babet (UAP) – 0.3299
- Nunn (ALP) – 0.3103
- Smith (LGC) – 0.2901
- Pickering (ON) – 0.2833
- Limbrick (LDP) – 0.2151
- Currie (AJP) – 0.1913
Animal Justice preferences strongly flowed to Labor:
- Nunn (ALP) – 0.3735
- Mirabella (LIB) – 0.3482
- Babet (UAP) – 0.3446
- Smith (LGC) – 0.3401
- Pickering (ON) – 0.2985
- Limbrick (LDP) – 0.2212
Liberal Democrats preferences favoured One Nation and the UAP, enough to push One Nation ahead of Legalise Cannabis:
- Nunn (ALP) – 0.3977
- Mirabella (LIB) – 0.3962
- Babet (UAP) – 0.3958
- Pickering (ON) – 0.3605
- Smith (LGC) – 0.3520
Legalise Cannabis preferences favoured Labor:
- Nunn (ALP) – 0.5089
- Mirabella (LIB) – 0.4485
- Babet (UAP) – 0.4379
- Pickering (ON) – 0.4036
One Nation preferences then strongly favoured the UAP, pushing Babet into the lead and leaving Mirabella in last place:
- Babet (UAP) – 0.6408
- Nunn (ALP) – 0.5510
- Mirabella (LIB) – 0.5047
Quite a lot of Liberal preferences exhausted, but enough flowed to the UAP to increase Babet’s lead, and he ended up winning:
- Babet (UAP) – 0.8344
- Nunn (ALP) – 0.6855
Babet won by a margin of 0.1489 quotas over Labor.
- A – Liberal/Nationals
- James Paterson (Liberal)
- Jane Hume (Liberal)
- Kyle Hoppitt (Liberal)
- Glenn Arnold (Nationals)
- B – Fiona Patten (Legalise Cannabis)
- C – Helen Jeges (Animal Justice)
- D – Racquel Austin-Abdullah (Indigenous – Aboriginal Party)
- E – Mohamed El-Masri (Australia’s Voice)
- F – Kammy Cordner Hunt (Fusion)
- G – Keo Vongvixay (Independent)
- H – James Unkles (Trumpet of Patriots)
- I – Labor
- J – Bernie Finn (Family First)
- K – Warren Pickering (One Nation)
- L – Heath McKenzie (Democrats)
- M – Jordan Van den Lamb (Victorian Socialists)
- N – Celeste Ackerly (Sustainable Australia)
- O – Chris Neil (People First)
- P – Jordan Dittloff (Libertarian)
- Q – Steph Hodgins-May (Greens)
- R – Robert Barwick (Citizens Party)
- S – Ethan Constantinou (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- T – Raj Saini (Independent)
- Ungrouped
-
- Heena Sinha Cheung (Independent)
- Susantha Abeysinghe (Independent)
- Viesha Lewand (Independent)
- Lawrence Harvey (Independent)
- Cory Corbett (Independent)
- K Black (Independent)
- David Van (Independent)
- Nate Ritter (Independent)
-
Assessment
Labor should comfortably retain their two seats, and the Greens will probably retain their single seat. There is a chance that a swing towards Labor could be enough for Labor to win a fourth seat off a right-wing party. The Coalition will be defending three seats. They should retain two, but the third could be challenged by a right-wing minor party, or even Labor.
I think Labor are preferencing LC before the Greens in Senate for Victoria. Between her name recognition, and people just generally liking weed, what’s the thought that Patten could get up over Hodgins-May? Greens essentially made the quota on their own for the most part in 2022 but could be trouble if they have to rely more heavily on preferences this time around.
@john
That squatter issue about the owner caring for her mum has lost him my vote. I usually give the Socialists a vote BTL but not this time.
Jordan van den Lamb’s whole stunt here of posting a homeowner’s address and encouraging squatting in it is downright stupid. Even if it is seemingly vacant, advertising it to people on social media is bordering on doxxing, and the way that some of the homeowner’s furniture and belongings from her deceased father is gross mistreatment and really disappointing from someone attempting for office. I hope he does apologise because this situation is incredibly substandard and a textbook example of malpractice. Don’t post people’s addresses online as a solution to the housing crisis, there are other more effective and ethical ways.
This van den Lamb fella reeks of socialist privileges, and Victorian socialists are some of the worst out there. No surprises that their base aren’t relenting from this sort of shenanigans and the guy’s about as genuine as a dodgy dentist who just charged you $1000 for a consultation.
The Australian Democrats are the underdog, but they have a strong fighting machine and I would not be surprised if they jump a few places over the other 16 parties and independents. The Liberals have the Democrats number 5 on their HTV ticket.
Muslim Votes Matter are recommending preferences to Australia’s Voice [1], Greens [2], and Victorian Socialists [3] while not ranking Legalise Cannabis at all. This could help push VS above LC, however considering how many more lower house seats LC are running in plus Fionna Patten’s name recognition probably outweighing Jordan’s (at least among older non-tiktok using voters) I think Legalise Cannabis are in with a stronger chance. Greens HTV will be important here, as far as I know they have a decent following rate, and their voters are favourable to both VS & LC.
wont matter it will be a 3 -3 result in vic 2 labor 1 green. 2 lnp. last spot will likely be onp or a 3rd liberal