Senate – Victoria – Australia 2025

Incumbent Senators

Term due to expire 2025 Term due to expire 2028
Raff Ciccone (Labor) Ralph Babet (United Australia)
Steph Hodgins-May (Greens)1 Lisa Darmanin (Labor)4
Jane Hume (Liberal) Sarah Henderson (Liberal)
James Paterson (Liberal) Bridget McKenzie (Nationals)
David Van (Independent)2 Jana Stewart (Labor)
Jess Walsh (Labor) Lidia Thorpe (Independent)3

1Steph Hodgins-May replaced Janet Rice on 1 May 2024 following Rice’s resignation.
2David Van resigned from the Liberal Party on 17 June 2023 to become an independent, after being expelled from the Liberal party room.
3Lidia Thorpe resigned from the Greens on 6 February 2023 to become an independent.
4Lisa Darmanin replaced Linda White on 29 May 2024 after White died on 29 February 2024.

History
The 1951 election, which was the first to result in a Senate entirely elected by proportional representation, gave an overall result of 5 ALP senators, 4 Liberal senators and one Country Party senator. The 1953 election saw the ALP gain a seat off the Liberals, giving them a 6-4 majority. This was the only time the ALP, or any party, won a majority of Victoria’s Senate delegation under PR.

The 1955 election saw the party that became the Democratic Labor Party win a seat off the ALP. At the 1961 election, both the DLP and the ALP lost a Senate seat, with the Liberals winning two, giving them five seats, with three ALP and one each for the DLP and Country Party. In 1964, the DLP regained their single Senate seat from the Liberal Party. In 1967, the DLP gained a second seat off the Country Party, who were left with no Victorian senators.

The 1970 election saw the Country Party regain their seat, off the ALP. The ALP was reduced to three seats, with four Liberals and two DLP senators. The 1974 double dissolution saw the ALP regain ground, with both DLP senators being defeated, and the ALP gaining two seats, bringing their contingent to five out of ten senators.

The 1975 double dissolution reduced the ALP to four seats, with the National Country Party gaining a second seat. The 1977 election saw former Liberal minister Don Chipp elected to the Senate for the newly-formed Australian Democrats. The National Country Party lost one of its senators to the Democrats. The 1980 election saw the NCP lose its other seat to the Democrats.

In the 1983 double dissolution, the ALP gained a fifth seat at the expense of the second Democrats senator. At the 1984 election, an increase in Senators saw the Liberals and Democrats each gain an extra seat. The Democrats again lost their second Victorian senator at the 1987 double dissolution to Nationals candidate Julian McGauran.

The 1990 election saw McGauran defeated, and the Democrats again regain their second seat. The 1993 election saw the Democrats lose a seat yet again to the Nationals. This produced a result of five each for the ALP and Liberals, and one each for the Nationals and Democrats. This status quo was maintained until the 2004 election, when the ALP lost one of its five senate seats to Family First’s Steven Fielding.

The 2007 election saw the ALP regain a fifth seat at the expense of the Democrats, who lost their last Victorian senator. In 2010, the Coalition lost one of their three seats, and Family First’s Steve Fielding also lost his seat. These two seats went to the Greens’ Richard Di Natale and the Democratic Labor Party’s John Madigan, shifting the split from 4-2 to the right to 3-3.

In 2013, both Labor and Liberal lost their third seat, to the Greens and Ricky Muir of the Motoring Enthusiasts Party.

The 2016 double dissolution produced two changes. Labor and Greens maintained four and two seats respectively. The Coalition regained a fifth seat, while Derryn Hinch won a seat as an independent. Ricky Muir and John Madigan both lost their seats.

Labor and the Greens maintained their numbers in 2019, while the Liberal Party gained an extra seat at the expense of Derryn Hinch.

Labor and the Greens maintained their numbers yet again in 2022. The Liberal Party lost their last seat to the United Australia Party’s Ralph Babet.

2022 result

Group Votes % Swing Quota
Liberal/Nationals 1,233,930 32.3 -3.6 2.2602
Labor 1,201,830 31.4 +0.3 2.2014
Greens 529,429 13.9 +3.3 0.9698
United Australia 153,231 4.0 +1.5 0.2807
Legalise Cannabis 114,805 3.0 +1.5 0.2103
One Nation 111,176 2.9 0.0 0.2036
Liberal Democrats 92,295 2.4 +1.4 0.1691
Animal Justice 57,836 1.5 0.0 0.1059
Hinch’s Justice Party 54,366 1.4 -1.4 0.0996
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 49,750 1.3 -0.6 0.0911
Reason 37,402 1.0 +1.0 0.0685
Democrats 28,693 0.8 +0.8 0.0526
Victorian Socialists 21,739 0.6 +0.6 0.0398
Others 135,057 3.5 0.2474
Informal 139,419 3.5

Preference flows
Four seats were won on primary votes: two for the Coalition and two for Labor. Greens senator Lidia Thorpe also reached a quota relatively early in the count after the party polled 0.97 quotas on primary votes.

Let’s fast forward to the last ten candidates competing for the final seat:

  • Ralph Babet (UAP) – 0.3063 quotas
  • Greg Mirabella (LIB) – 0.2834
  • Elissa Smith (LGC) – 0.2411
  • Casey Nunn (ALP) – 0.2406
  • Warren Pickering (ON) – 0.2393
  • David Limbrick (LDP) – 0.2024
  • Bronwyn Currie (AJP) – 0.1443
  • Derryn Hinch (DHJ) – 0.1247
  • Ethan Constantinou (SFF) – 0.1045
  • Yolanda Vega (RP) – 0.0889

Reason preferences favoured Labor, Legalise Cannabis, Liberal and Animal Justice:

  • Babet (UAP) – 0.3074
  • Mirabella (LIB) – 0.2994
  • Nunn (ALP) – 0.2666
  • Pickering (ON) – 0.2399
  • Smith (LGC) – 0.2583
  • Limbrick (LDP) – 0.2036
  • Currie (AJP) – 0.1575
  • Hinch (DHJ) – 0.1302
  • Constantinou (SFF) – 0.1055

Shooters preferences favoured One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, Liberal and Labor:

  • Babet (UAP) – 0.3184
  • Mirabella (LIB) – 0.3125
  • Nunn (ALP) – 0.2795
  • Smith (LGC) – 0.2755
  • Pickering (ON) – 0.2640
  • Limbrick (LDP) – 0.2094
  • Currie (AJP) – 0.1660
  • Hinch (DHJ) – 0.1371

Hinch’s preferences favoured Labor:

  • Mirabella (LIB) – 0.3332
  • Babet (UAP) – 0.3299
  • Nunn (ALP) – 0.3103
  • Smith (LGC) – 0.2901
  • Pickering (ON) – 0.2833
  • Limbrick (LDP) – 0.2151
  • Currie (AJP) – 0.1913

Animal Justice preferences strongly flowed to Labor:

  • Nunn (ALP) – 0.3735
  • Mirabella (LIB) – 0.3482
  • Babet (UAP) – 0.3446
  • Smith (LGC) – 0.3401
  • Pickering (ON) – 0.2985
  • Limbrick (LDP) – 0.2212

Liberal Democrats preferences favoured One Nation and the UAP, enough to push One Nation ahead of Legalise Cannabis:

  • Nunn (ALP) – 0.3977
  • Mirabella (LIB) – 0.3962
  • Babet (UAP) – 0.3958
  • Pickering (ON) – 0.3605
  • Smith (LGC) – 0.3520

Legalise Cannabis preferences favoured Labor:

  • Nunn (ALP) – 0.5089
  • Mirabella (LIB) – 0.4485
  • Babet (UAP) – 0.4379
  • Pickering (ON) – 0.4036

One Nation preferences then strongly favoured the UAP, pushing Babet into the lead and leaving Mirabella in last place:

  • Babet (UAP) – 0.6408
  • Nunn (ALP) – 0.5510
  • Mirabella (LIB) – 0.5047

Quite a lot of Liberal preferences exhausted, but enough flowed to the UAP to increase Babet’s lead, and he ended up winning:

  • Babet (UAP) – 0.8344
  • Nunn (ALP) – 0.6855

Babet won by a margin of 0.1489 quotas over Labor.

Candidates

  • Ungrouped
      1. Heena Sinha Cheung (Independent)
      2. Susantha Abeysinghe (Independent)
      3. Viesha Lewand (Independent)
      4. Lawrence Harvey (Independent)
      5. Cory Corbett (Independent)
      6. K Black (Independent)
      7. David Van (Independent)
      8. Nate Ritter (Independent)

Assessment
Labor should comfortably retain their two seats, and the Greens will probably retain their single seat. There is a chance that a swing towards Labor could be enough for Labor to win a fourth seat off a right-wing party. The Coalition will be defending three seats. They should retain two, but the third could be challenged by a right-wing minor party, or even Labor.

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49 COMMENTS

  1. After what Lidia Thorpe did yesterday to the King and Queen Consort and her previous incidents, she should be forced to resign from Parliament. She cannot be behaving like that as an elected official and quite frankly I don’t think anyone in their right mind would think she is fit for office.

  2. @Tbh I’m in two minds yea she is but on the other hand she keeps a vote away from labor and the greens til at least 2028. She’s just after attention. Unfortunately until she’s convicted of a crime that carries at least 1 year in prison or is declared bankrupt no-one can.

  3. @ Nether Portal
    A few weeks ago Lidia Thorpe was kicked out of parliament for chanting “From the River to the Sea, Palestine will be Free” while Penny Wong was speaking

  4. I see some people only want freedom of speech when it’s speech they agree with. Nothing Lidia Thorpe said was an incitement to violence or persecution.

  5. The Greens can jettison some of their negative perceptions onto her. She actually quit because she wasn’t willing to support incremental improvements – a claim unfairly thrown at Greens. Most of her campaigning has been on non material, student politics and identity politics type issues while Greens have campaigned more on issues like housing and cost of living. Palestine threw this off – nearly a full year of overwhelming Greens focus on an international relations issue that’s a hallmark of campus socialism. But I suspect as the election gets closer, Thorpe will still be talking about colonialism, while the Greens will talk about putting dental into Medicare. It’s helpful to the Greens to have political forces like Victorian Socialists distinctly to their left.

  6. Agree BNJ and NP, Lydia Thorpe is behaving in a somewhat juvenile manner by engaging with these sort of stunts. It is a bad look for her, but I also agree with Wilson that unless she also committed violent acts or criminal behaviour then just participating in foolish stunts is not grounds on its own to be expelled from parliament.

  7. @Wilson she made a post about beheading the King. If she did the same with the US President even if it was a joke she would be investigated by the Secret Service. It happened to Eminem when he criticised Donald Trump in a rap despite having no intention of hurting him. It happened to Elon Musk because of a tweet he made about the assassination of Trump and why it never happens to Democrats, and while Elon Musk is insane he doesn’t have any intention of assassinating Joe Biden or Kamala Harris.

    In America anyone who says anything they don’t like about the President will get investigated. This is an Australian elected official talking about murdering the Head of State. Why is she not being investigated? Just because she’s a politician?

  9. Lidia Thorpe won’t be running for re-election. She still has 3 and a bit years left.

    @Blue Not John, I agree your sentiments about identity politics and student politics and the differences between her and the Greens. She exhibits the sort of stuff you see on uni campuses.

    What I find annoying is the amount of mainstream media and social media exposure given to her. She actually got publicity for free. The tirade didn’t even last a minute or a tiny fraction of the event but it was the leading story and made waves. There was little focus on the King’s speech or reception itself.

  10. @Wilson no absolutely not, but I do believe there is a line in the sand for what’s considered free speech and calling for violence against someone is not free speech. It wasn’t even a joke and she’s an elected official who gets a massive salary and her stunts cost taxpayer money. Should she ever leave Australia she should be pulled up by Border Security and investigated just like any normal citizen would be for such comments.

  12. So you are for authoritarianism, Nether Portal.

    I think it’s also quite silly and infantilising for people to compare a grown Aboriginal woman who is angry at the centuries of suffering of her people to student politics, where people usually do not have to live through the trauma of the cause they’re advocating for. It’s reductive and a bad comparison.

  15. @Nether Portal I don’t agree with kicking Lidiot Thorpe out of parliament, that would be a bit too far though a censure for her recent behaviour would be justified. In saying that, I largely agree with everything else you have said. She is the single biggest cooker in the entire parliament, and that’s saying a lot considering that Babet, Pauline, Rennick, Malcolm Roberts, Faruqi etc. exist.

    I mean FFS, “I swore to the Queen’s hairs, not her heirs”? That sounds like something Jonah from Tonga would say.

  16. I wouldn’t worry about Lidia Thorpe its more then likely that in 2028 she’ll lose her senate spot to the Greens and fade away. I’m expecting David Van to lose his spot to the Liberals in 2025 and in 2028 for Ralph Babet to lose his spot to either Labor or Liberal.

  17. Lets be realistic. Stunts like this are her only chance of re-election. She couldn’t even hold Northcote for the Greens, let alone get anywhere near a quota even at a DD, no chance at a half Senate election.

  18. It might be best to ignore Lidia Thorpe and deprive her of political oxygen. The “Queens Hairs” just shows her up to be immature and frankly a tad stupid.

  21. @mostly she has no chance of reelection in 2028. the senate spots will go to the libs labor and greens the quota in vic is much higher then in act which got pocock elected

  24. @James yeah they weren’t ever getting in anyway. The weren’t winning Higgins either, even if the AEC kept it they would’nt’ve won.

  25. Yesterday the Senate censured Lidia Thorpe for her stunts and actions.

    I am pleased to see this. Lidia Thorpe is an extremist. Her hate speech has no place in Australian society.

  26. Member for the soon to be abolished federal seat of Higgins, Michelle Ananda-Rajah has announced she is running for Victorian Senate

  28. There are financial implications in being;-a) removed democratically, versus, b) ‘retiring’.
    The jurisdictions vary, but in Victoria, standing for election can add 6 months salary to one’s ’severance package’.

  31. @John – technically Michelle Ananda-Rajah is still the Member for Higgins. She still is in parliament, has an electorate office. That’s why AKD said she was ‘Member for the soon to be abolished federal seat of Higgins’. Her electorate technically has been abolished but it won’t take place until 2025/next federal election.

  32. @james the correct statement would be the soon to be former member for Higgins. Higgins is abolished but she is still the member for Higgins since the election hasnt yet taken place.

  33. Lidia Thorpe was suspended yesterday after throwing papers at Pauline Hanson. Today, she went to the Press Gallery and shouted “From the River to Sea, Palestine will be Free”.

  35. Lidia Thorpe isn’t fit for office. I’ve said it so many times before but I’ll say it again. She lies, she does stupid stunts, she is abusive and offensive, etc. Either she will quit, be forced to quit or she will lose her seat, guaranteed. She ranks as one of the worst people ever elected to the Australian Parliament.

  36. 2022 was indeed an odd year for Victoria with a 2-2-1-1(UAP) result. Victoria has thrown up some interesting ones this century (Steve Fielding and Ricky Muir) with Ralph Babet last election being the latest. 2019 results were 3LIB,2ALP,1GRN.

    Libs dropping in 2019 opened up the door for UAP with a strong result and Justice shedding 50K of voters. This time Justice doesn’t exist (another 50K of voters) and UAP doesn’t either (150K of votes). 200K will have to choose a new party, and that’s a sizeable chunk. If they’re mostly right-leaning voters, that could boost an outside chance for ONP to snag the last seat or return back to the third Lib. Even with the current predicted (Poll Bludger Tracker) 3% swing against ALP, they keep 2Q, Greens are almost at 1Q. So I’m locking in 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 2 LIB. That last seat will go to a right party, most likely LIB, with outside chance ONP. (FFP may capture some votes from Justice, with Bernie Finn running, but as Campbell Newman found out last time, star power doesn’t always work in the Senate. Same goes for Fiona Pattern running for LC.)

    JAN 25 Prediction: 3 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN

  37. The High Court will hear arguments from lawyers representing Babet and Palmer on February 7 to determine the constitutionality of section 135(3) of the Commonwealth Electoral Act. This section prohibits parties that have deregistered from re-registering until after a general election.

  38. Quite likely that Labor will struggle to get two quotas on the first count – same goes for NSW, Tasmania and Queensland too. Could make the count interesting if the two left parties are flapping for a while at 0.9

  39. what are people thoughts on 6th spot here?
    I expect ALP 2, GRN 1, LNP 2 with other between Legalise Cannabis, One Nation and LNP. I don’t think the latest version of Clive Palmer’s party will be as popular this time around

  40. bazza it will be a 3-3 Split. LGC is a left leaning party so the 6th spot will be between One nation and the libs

  41. What are Jordan Van Den Lamb’s chances? Zero, I suspect? Though he seems high profilr but I imagine his vote would only come at the expense of thr Greens who are too strong to lose.

  44. Van Den Lamb will probably use this senate election as a litmus test for the Vic State election next year if he doesn’t get in.

  45. @np not that I know of. BABET WOULD BE BETTER OFF joining one nation or the libs especially if he wants to get reelected

  46. the 2022 count is a good example of why you should put ALP/LNP as your last preference if you don’t want to get a fringe party like UAP/ON elected

  47. Liberal HTV in Victoria Senate
    1. Liberal
    2. Family First
    3. Libertarian
    4. One Nation
    5. Sustainable Australia
    6. Democrats

  49. Anyone seen any other htv cards for other senate races or key seats. All I can see is my local indi one.

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