Senate – Tasmania – Australia 2025

I don’t rate Jacqui Lambie’s reelection odds that highly anymore.

Ironically, JLN’s gains at the recent Tasmanian election could split the party. Many minor parties that get 1 or more MPs elected, other than the leader, end up imploding within a term e.g. One Nation, UAP, SFF, NXT (Centre Alliance) and more recently at the federal level, JLN. I could be wrong and the state JLN stays intact throughout the first term.

A Senate result of LNP 3, ALP 2, GRN 1 looks more likely than LNP 2, ALP 2, GRN 1, JL 1. JL’s personal vote may save her if it’s strong enough.

@votante agreed she gets a higher vote when coalition is in office due to Labor preferences although il rate her chances as fair this time I think Tammy tyrell will be defeated and jln won’t get another senator in 2028.

how much of the vote has to change for the LIBs to unseat @raue?

Will Hodgeman should probably run since he no longer is a diplomat, and he will argue he can help the Libs wrestle back the lost senate seat.

@daniel t unless one of the incumbents retires, the Tasmanian Liberal senate ticket was already locked last year as:

1. Claire Chandler
2. Richard Colbeck
3. Jacki Martin

I’m talking about 2028

How much vote needs to shift for JL to be defeated?

JLN has just imploded at a state level. her vote was recently recorded at 8% but that was before the party imlpoded and along with Tammy Tyrells quiting it seem JL has got problems. if he cant maintain her 8% vote at the next election she could lose her senate spot. but that benefit the libs and gives the crosbench on less vote. if the libs can oust lambie and pocock it means labor will need faruqui tyrell and thorpe to pass legislation. as i doubt babet and hanson will give them anything

Jackie Lambie should just focus on being independent senator for Tasmania and abandon any pretentions of being a party leader. It obviously does not go well for her. She has her own brand and should stick to the ‘core business’ as such. The danger is that she will become so distracted that she will lose.

Redistributed, I wonder if Lambie is just like Pauline Hanson in that party members need to be ‘vetted’ by her and anyone who steps out of line is removed or forced to walk away (examples like Stephen Andrew, Mark Latham, Fraser Anning and Brian Burston).

Quite possibly – a ‘narrow’ church with Pauline, Clive or Jackie occupying all ecclestical roles from prophet downwards

Agree Redistributed, also forgot about Clive Palmer in that he along with Lambie and Hanson seem to be like Donald Trump in that they like control and as ‘personality’ figures they want to shape the party around them, not letting others try and influence their terms.

Ironically, Lambie herself was ‘dumped’ from the Palmer United Party led by Clive. Now she is almost a carbon copy of her former leader, by pushing out fellow members like Steve Martin, Tammy Tyrrell and others.

Jln…. is imploding. ……….
But this time Jackie herself is up for election

i cant see the quotas and votes yet so cant determine how much it would take to oust lambie

You would have to think that she would be a fairly good chance to get #6. Hard to see the Libs and the ALP not preferencing her before the Greens – who would quite likely get a quota of their own any way. The only way she may lose is if the Libs get three quotas of their own – hard to see that happening though.

@redistributed in tasmania the libs will get 2 labor 2 greens 1 and 6th spot will be a contest between the lbs and JLN

Jacqui Lambie has just been named the most likeable politician in Australia according to polling from Resolve Political Monitor published in the Sydney Morning Herald. She has a net likeability rating of +14 with 80% of voters having heard of her (way higher than I expected).

The only Labor politician with a positive net likeability rating is Penny Wong (+2%), while every Greens and right-wing minor party politician has a negative net likeability rating.

Most liked:
1. Jacqui Lambie (JLN): +14% (80%)
2. Jacinta Price (CLP): +8% (71%)
3. Simon Birmingham (Liberal): +7% (44%)
4. David Pocock (Independent): +5% (47%)
5. Angus Taylor (Liberal): +4% (47%)

Most disliked:
1. Lidia Thorpe (Independent): –41% (73%)
2. Barnaby Joyce (National): –22% (90%)
3. Anthony Albanese (Labor): –17% (98%)
4. Fatima Payman (Independent): –17% (56%)
5. Bob Katter (KAP): –15% (72%)

Most familiar:
1. Anthony Albanese (Labor): 98% (–17%)
2. Pauline Hanson (One Nation): 97% (–13%)
3. Peter Dutton (LNP): 95% (±0%)
4. Barnaby Joyce (National): 90% (–22%)
5. Penny Wong (Labor): 89% (+2%)

Note that only politicians who over 40% of respondents were familiar with were included.

I cast my doubts on some of these but others are pretty accurate. I still don’t think 80% know who Jacqui Lambie is. I would say Bob Katter is more famous yet he has only 72% recognising him. But I ain’t spending any time on it!

Some surprising numbers – Angus Taylor? Birmingham? I think Pocock’s popularity is a little understated too, a bit surprising to see the hate for Katter and Payman – definitely given Bandt and Hanson were only -13% apiece

The reason Hanson and Bandy have such low ratings is because they are fringe parties who only appeal to a small portion of one side of politics. And their views are seem as extreme to the majority.