Incumbent Senators
| Term due to expire 2025 | Term due to expire 2028 |
| Catryna Bilyk (Labor) | Wendy Askew (Liberal) |
| Carol Brown (Labor) | Jonathon Duniam (Liberal) |
| Claire Chandler (Liberal) | Helen Polley (Labor) |
| Richard Colbeck (Liberal) | Tammy Tyrrell (Independent)1 |
| Jacqui Lambie (Lambie) | Anne Urquhart (Labor) |
| Nick McKim (Greens) | Peter Whish-Wilson (Greens) |
1Tammy Tyrrell resigned from the Jacqui Lambie Network on 28 March 2024.
History
Tasmania elected five senators for each major party at the 1951 double dissolution. In 1953, the Liberals gained a sixth seat from the ALP. The Liberals were reduced to five seats in 1955, when one of the ALP’s senators left the party to join the party that became the Democratic Labor Party. In 1961, the Liberals lost their fifth seat to independent Reginald Turnbull, and until 1964 Tasmania was represented by four Labor senators, four Liberal senators, one DLP senator and Turnbull.
The 1964 election saw the ALP regain the seat previously held by the DLP. This 5-4-1 split remained until the 1970 Senate election, when the ALP lost their fifth seat to conservative independent Michael Townley, producing a result of four Labor, four Liberal and two independents. Turnbull retired at the 1974 double dissolution, and the ALP won back a fifth senate seat. Prior to the 1975 election Townley joined the Liberal Party, and in 1975 the Liberals won five seats, the ALP won four (down one from 1974) , and the final seat was won by ex-Labor independent Brian Harradine.
Tasmania continued to be represented by five Liberals, four Labor and Harradine from 1975 until the 1984 election, when Labor won a fifth seat and the Australian Democrats won a seat. This 5-5-1-1 balance remained steady until the 1996 election, when the Democrats lost their single senate seat, and Greens candidate Dr Bob Brown was elected to that seat. This balance remained steady until 2004, although prior to the 2001 election Labor Senator Shayne Murphy resigned from the ALP to serve as an independent.
At the 2004 election, Harradine retired, and his seat was won by the Liberal Party, whilst the ALP lost one of its seats to Greens candidate Christine Milne. At the 2007 election, the ALP won a fifth seat back off the Liberal Party. In 2010, the ALP again won three out of six seats, which resulted in Labor holding half of Tasmania’s Senate seats, with Liberal reduced to four.
In 2013, Labor lost its sixth Senate seat to Jacqui Lambie of the Palmer United Party, who subsequently left the party and founded the Jacqui Lambie Network.
There was no change at the 2016 double dissolution election. Labor maintained their five seats, the Liberal Party maintained four, the Greens two, and Jacqui Lambie was re-elected.
Lambie was removed from the Senate in 2017 due to citizenship problems, and she was replaced by her running mate Steve Martin, who eventually joined the Nationals.
The group of senators given a short term by the double dissolution leaned to the left, including three Labor senators, one Greens, one Liberal and one National.
At the 2019 election, Lambie regained her seat, but the Liberal Party gained a second seat off the expense of Labor, who were reduced to just two seats (for a total of four).
The Jacqui Lambie Network won a second seat at the 2022 election, winning a seat off the Liberal Party. This left each of the major parties with four seats each, alongside two Greens and two JLN senators.
| Group | Votes | % | Swing | Quota |
| Liberal | 115,594 | 32.0 | +0.5 | 2.2411 |
| Labor | 97,614 | 27.0 | -3.6 | 1.8925 |
| Greens | 55,899 | 15.5 | +2.9 | 1.0838 |
| Jacqui Lambie Network | 31,203 | 8.6 | -0.3 | 0.6050 |
| One Nation | 14,013 | 3.9 | +0.4 | 0.2717 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 10,942 | 3.0 | +1.8 | 0.2121 |
| Liberal Democrats | 6,913 | 1.9 | +1.2 | 0.1340 |
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 6,844 | 1.9 | +0.2 | 0.1327 |
| United Australia | 5,862 | 1.6 | -1.0 | 0.1137 |
| Animal Justice | 4,938 | 1.4 | +0.1 | 0.0957 |
| Local Party | 5,216 | 1.4 | +1.4 | 0.1011 |
| Sustainable Australia | 3,457 | 1.0 | +0.5 | 0.0670 |
| Others | 2,553 | 0.7 | 0.0495 | |
| Informal | 11,925 | 3.2 |
Preference flows
Three seats were decided on primary votes: the lead candidates for the Liberal, Labor and Greens parties. The Liberal Party polled over two quotas of votes, but that includes almost 0.3 quotas for third candidate Eric Abetz, so there were not enough primary votes to elect the second candidate as long as Abetz remained in the race.
Now we fast forward to the last ten candidates competing for the final three seats. It’s worth noting that Abetz is ranked reasonably high in the order, but as long as Askew remains in the race he can only receive preferences cast below the line:
- Wendy Askew (LIB) – 0.9488 quotas
- Helen Polley (ALP) – 0.9344
- Tammy Tyrrell (JLN) – 0.6525
- Steve Mav (ON) – 0.3275
- Eric Abetz (LIB) – 0.3194
- Matt Owen (LGC) – 0.2411
- Topher Field (LDP) – 0.1564
- Ray Williams (SFF) – 0.1484
- Ivan Davis (AJP) – 0.1336
- Leanne Minshull (LOC) – 0.1308
Minshull’s preferences favoured Labor and Tyrrell most strongly:
- Polley (ALP) – 0.9723
- Askew (LIB) – 0.9563
- Tyrrell (JLN) – 0.6846
- Mav (ON) – 0.3313
- Abetz (LIB) – 0.3206
- Owen (LGC) – 0.2520
- Field (LDP) – 0.1640
- Williams (SFF) – 0.1555
- Davis (AJP) – 0.1535
Animal Justice preferences pushed second Labor candidate Helen Polley over quota to win the fourth seat, while also flowing reasonably strongly to Tyrrell and Legalise Cannabis.
- Polley (ALP) – 1.0062
- Askew (LIB) – 0.9651
- Tyrrell (JLN) – 0.7115
- Mav (ON) – 0.3456
- Abetz (LIB) – 0.3213
- Owen (LGC) – 0.2971
- Field (LDP) – 0.1686
- Williams (SFF) – 0.1681
Almost half of Polley’s small surplus flowed to Tyrrell, and then Shooters preferences flowed most strongly to Legalise Cannabis and Tyrrell:
- Askew (LIB) – 0.9933
- Tyrrell (JLN) – 0.7515
- Mav (ON) – 0.3732
- Owen (LGC) – 0.3479
- Abetz (LIB) – 0.3235
- Field (LDP) – 0.1823
Liberal Democrats preferences elected Askew to the fifth seat:
- Askew (LIB) – 1.0714
- Tyrrell (JLN) – 0.7711
- Mav (ON) – 0.4230
- Owen (LGC) – 0.3643
- Abetz (LIB) – 0.3306
Most of Askew’s surplus flowed to fellow Liberal Abetz:
- Tyrrell (JLN) – 0.7719
- Mav (ON) – 0.4231
- Abetz (LIB) – 0.4005
- Owen (LGC) – 0.3645
Legalise Cannabis preferences scattered, but favoured Tyrrell primarily:
- Tyrrell (JLN) – 0.8882
- Mav (ON) – 0.5036
- Abetz (LIB) – 0.4641
Abetz preferences flowed roughly evenly between Tyrrell and Mav, but it was enough to give Tyrrell a full quota before all of Abetz’s votes had been distributed:
- Tyrrell (JLN) – 1.0454
- Mav (ON) – 0.6260
- Abetz (LIB) – 0.0850
- Labor
- Liberal
- Jacqui Lambie (Jacqui Lambie Network)
- Nick McKim (Greens)
Assessment
Labor and the Greens should maintain their seats, but it’s unlikely they could lift their vote high enough for Labor to gain a third seat from the other parties.
Jacqui Lambie should have a strong chance at re-election, which leaves just two seats leftover for the Liberal Party.
I don’t rate Jacqui Lambie’s reelection odds that highly anymore.
Ironically, JLN’s gains at the recent Tasmanian election could split the party. Many minor parties that get 1 or more MPs elected, other than the leader, end up imploding within a term e.g. One Nation, UAP, SFF, NXT (Centre Alliance) and more recently at the federal level, JLN. I could be wrong and the state JLN stays intact throughout the first term.
A Senate result of LNP 3, ALP 2, GRN 1 looks more likely than LNP 2, ALP 2, GRN 1, JL 1. JL’s personal vote may save her if it’s strong enough.
@votante agreed she gets a higher vote when coalition is in office due to Labor preferences although il rate her chances as fair this time I think Tammy tyrell will be defeated and jln won’t get another senator in 2028.
how much of the vote has to change for the LIBs to unseat @raue?
Will Hodgeman should probably run since he no longer is a diplomat, and he will argue he can help the Libs wrestle back the lost senate seat.
@daniel t unless one of the incumbents retires, the Tasmanian Liberal senate ticket was already locked last year as:
1. Claire Chandler
2. Richard Colbeck
3. Jacki Martin
I’m talking about 2028
How much vote needs to shift for JL to be defeated?
JLN has just imploded at a state level. her vote was recently recorded at 8% but that was before the party imlpoded and along with Tammy Tyrells quiting it seem JL has got problems. if he cant maintain her 8% vote at the next election she could lose her senate spot. but that benefit the libs and gives the crosbench on less vote. if the libs can oust lambie and pocock it means labor will need faruqui tyrell and thorpe to pass legislation. as i doubt babet and hanson will give them anything
Jackie Lambie should just focus on being independent senator for Tasmania and abandon any pretentions of being a party leader. It obviously does not go well for her. She has her own brand and should stick to the ‘core business’ as such. The danger is that she will become so distracted that she will lose.
Redistributed, I wonder if Lambie is just like Pauline Hanson in that party members need to be ‘vetted’ by her and anyone who steps out of line is removed or forced to walk away (examples like Stephen Andrew, Mark Latham, Fraser Anning and Brian Burston).
Quite possibly – a ‘narrow’ church with Pauline, Clive or Jackie occupying all ecclestical roles from prophet downwards
Agree Redistributed, also forgot about Clive Palmer in that he along with Lambie and Hanson seem to be like Donald Trump in that they like control and as ‘personality’ figures they want to shape the party around them, not letting others try and influence their terms.
Ironically, Lambie herself was ‘dumped’ from the Palmer United Party led by Clive. Now she is almost a carbon copy of her former leader, by pushing out fellow members like Steve Martin, Tammy Tyrrell and others.
Jln…. is imploding. ……….
But this time Jackie herself is up for election
i cant see the quotas and votes yet so cant determine how much it would take to oust lambie
You would have to think that she would be a fairly good chance to get #6. Hard to see the Libs and the ALP not preferencing her before the Greens – who would quite likely get a quota of their own any way. The only way she may lose is if the Libs get three quotas of their own – hard to see that happening though.
@redistributed in tasmania the libs will get 2 labor 2 greens 1 and 6th spot will be a contest between the lbs and JLN
Jacqui Lambie has just been named the most likeable politician in Australia according to polling from Resolve Political Monitor published in the Sydney Morning Herald. She has a net likeability rating of +14 with 80% of voters having heard of her (way higher than I expected).
The only Labor politician with a positive net likeability rating is Penny Wong (+2%), while every Greens and right-wing minor party politician has a negative net likeability rating.
Most liked:
1. Jacqui Lambie (JLN): +14% (80%)
2. Jacinta Price (CLP): +8% (71%)
3. Simon Birmingham (Liberal): +7% (44%)
4. David Pocock (Independent): +5% (47%)
5. Angus Taylor (Liberal): +4% (47%)
Most disliked:
1. Lidia Thorpe (Independent): –41% (73%)
2. Barnaby Joyce (National): –22% (90%)
3. Anthony Albanese (Labor): –17% (98%)
4. Fatima Payman (Independent): –17% (56%)
5. Bob Katter (KAP): –15% (72%)
Most familiar:
1. Anthony Albanese (Labor): 98% (–17%)
2. Pauline Hanson (One Nation): 97% (–13%)
3. Peter Dutton (LNP): 95% (±0%)
4. Barnaby Joyce (National): 90% (–22%)
5. Penny Wong (Labor): 89% (+2%)
Note that only politicians who over 40% of respondents were familiar with were included.
I cast my doubts on some of these but others are pretty accurate. I still don’t think 80% know who Jacqui Lambie is. I would say Bob Katter is more famous yet he has only 72% recognising him. But I ain’t spending any time on it!
Some surprising numbers – Angus Taylor? Birmingham? I think Pocock’s popularity is a little understated too, a bit surprising to see the hate for Katter and Payman – definitely given Bandt and Hanson were only -13% apiece
The reason Hanson and Bandy have such low ratings is because they are fringe parties who only appeal to a small portion of one side of politics. And their views are seem as extreme to the majority.
I like looking at the quirks of Minor Parties and oddities in elections. Today, I take a look at Tasmania’s perennial senate candidate, and party hopper, Justin Stringer.
In 2016, he was no.2 on PUP Ticket which received 2,363 votes (0.70%).
In 2019, he was no.1 on the Conservatives Ticket which received 3,822 votes (1.09%).
In 2022, he was no.2 on Federation Party Ticket which received 623 votes (0.17%).
Any takers on which party he’ll be running for in 2025? ONP? SFF? LBT? That’s your first pick for obscure bingo on 2025 election night.
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As for Lambie’s chances… in 2019 Libs and Lab got 2Q off the bat and Greens not far off 1Q. This left everyone else fighting for the last seat. Lambie had 0.62Q, Libs Surplus approx 0.2Q and ONP approx 0.24Q. No one else came close to Lambie.
In 2022, Libs got 2Q off the bat again, while Lab only got 1 seat off the bat and Greens got 1Q. Labor was very close to 2Q so got their seat shortly after. Even with Lambie’s no.2 running, her party got 0.6Q compared to Libs Surplus approx 0.24Q and ONP approx 0.27Q. Again, no one came close to Lambie and was an easy victory.
The trend between both elections saw ALP loose a bit mainly to the GRN, while LIB gained a small amount. Even with the shenanigans at State Level, I don’t think this will really affect the Senate. The outside chance threat to Lambie is if current polling trends hold (i.e. swing to Coalition between 1-3%) that somehow then means Lib Surplus and ONP combine to get either #3 Lib or #1 ONP elected, over Lambie #1, if her vote remains stagnate at the 0.6Q / approx 8.6% mark. Having Lambie run, and not her no.2, should increase her vote with name recognition and hopefully overcome the outside chance scenario above.
JAN 25 Prediction: 2 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 LAM
A few days ago on Pollbludger there was some opining that Jacqui Lambie could lose her seat. That could have just been partisan ranting. It seems unlikely though to me. It would mean the Libs getting 3 – unlikely. Possible even that Labor could get to one – though only an outside possibility. Thoughts folks?
@redistributed link please id be inerested in seeing that
the last 2 elections the Greens have increased their vote by 4.3% and got a quota before prefs in 2022 (vote might have been higher if Local Party hadn’t run) Their high vote back in 2010 was 1.4 quota. If they can increase vote again to close to the 2010 vote then with strong pref flow from AJP and LCP then they will be in the mix through to the last part of the count. Unlikely to get enough to get a 2nd Senator but if Labor loose a few % it could be a bit of a race for the fifth & sixth seat between greens, Labor and JLN