Senate – Tasmania – Australia 2025

Incumbent Senators

Term due to expire 2025 Term due to expire 2028
Catryna Bilyk (Labor) Wendy Askew (Liberal)
Carol Brown (Labor) Jonathon Duniam (Liberal)
Claire Chandler (Liberal) Helen Polley (Labor)
Richard Colbeck (Liberal) Tammy Tyrrell (Independent)1
Jacqui Lambie (Lambie) Anne Urquhart (Labor)
Nick McKim (Greens) Peter Whish-Wilson (Greens)

1Tammy Tyrrell resigned from the Jacqui Lambie Network on 28 March 2024.

History
Tasmania elected five senators for each major party at the 1951 double dissolution. In 1953, the Liberals gained a sixth seat from the ALP. The Liberals were reduced to five seats in 1955, when one of the ALP’s senators left the party to join the party that became the Democratic Labor Party. In 1961, the Liberals lost their fifth seat to independent Reginald Turnbull, and until 1964 Tasmania was represented by four Labor senators, four Liberal senators, one DLP senator and Turnbull.

The 1964 election saw the ALP regain the seat previously held by the DLP. This 5-4-1 split remained until the 1970 Senate election, when the ALP lost their fifth seat to conservative independent Michael Townley, producing a result of four Labor, four Liberal and two independents. Turnbull retired at the 1974 double dissolution, and the ALP won back a fifth senate seat. Prior to the 1975 election Townley joined the Liberal Party, and in 1975 the Liberals won five seats, the ALP won four (down one from 1974) , and the final seat was won by ex-Labor independent Brian Harradine.

Tasmania continued to be represented by five Liberals, four Labor and Harradine from 1975 until the 1984 election, when Labor won a fifth seat and the Australian Democrats won a seat. This 5-5-1-1 balance remained steady until the 1996 election, when the Democrats lost their single senate seat, and Greens candidate Dr Bob Brown was elected to that seat. This balance remained steady until 2004, although prior to the 2001 election Labor Senator Shayne Murphy resigned from the ALP to serve as an independent.

At the 2004 election, Harradine retired, and his seat was won by the Liberal Party, whilst the ALP lost one of its seats to Greens candidate Christine Milne. At the 2007 election, the ALP won a fifth seat back off the Liberal Party. In 2010, the ALP again won three out of six seats, which resulted in Labor holding half of Tasmania’s Senate seats, with Liberal reduced to four.

In 2013, Labor lost its sixth Senate seat to Jacqui Lambie of the Palmer United Party, who subsequently left the party and founded the Jacqui Lambie Network.

There was no change at the 2016 double dissolution election. Labor maintained their five seats, the Liberal Party maintained four, the Greens two, and Jacqui Lambie was re-elected.

Lambie was removed from the Senate in 2017 due to citizenship problems, and she was replaced by her running mate Steve Martin, who eventually joined the Nationals.

The group of senators given a short term by the double dissolution leaned to the left, including three Labor senators, one Greens, one Liberal and one National.

At the 2019 election, Lambie regained her seat, but the Liberal Party gained a second seat off the expense of Labor, who were reduced to just two seats (for a total of four).

The Jacqui Lambie Network won a second seat at the 2022 election, winning a seat off the Liberal Party. This left each of the major parties with four seats each, alongside two Greens and two JLN senators.

2022 result

Group Votes % Swing Quota
Liberal 115,594 32.0 +0.5 2.2411
Labor 97,614 27.0 -3.6 1.8925
Greens 55,899 15.5 +2.9 1.0838
Jacqui Lambie Network 31,203 8.6 -0.3 0.6050
One Nation 14,013 3.9 +0.4 0.2717
Legalise Cannabis 10,942 3.0 +1.8 0.2121
Liberal Democrats 6,913 1.9 +1.2 0.1340
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 6,844 1.9 +0.2 0.1327
United Australia 5,862 1.6 -1.0 0.1137
Animal Justice 4,938 1.4 +0.1 0.0957
Local Party 5,216 1.4 +1.4 0.1011
Sustainable Australia 3,457 1.0 +0.5 0.0670
Others 2,553 0.7 0.0495
Informal 11,925 3.2

Preference flows
Three seats were decided on primary votes: the lead candidates for the Liberal, Labor and Greens parties. The Liberal Party polled over two quotas of votes, but that includes almost 0.3 quotas for third candidate Eric Abetz, so there were not enough primary votes to elect the second candidate as long as Abetz remained in the race.

Now we fast forward to the last ten candidates competing for the final three seats. It’s worth noting that Abetz is ranked reasonably high in the order, but as long as Askew remains in the race he can only receive preferences cast below the line:

  • Wendy Askew (LIB) – 0.9488 quotas
  • Helen Polley (ALP) – 0.9344
  • Tammy Tyrrell (JLN) – 0.6525
  • Steve Mav (ON) – 0.3275
  • Eric Abetz (LIB) – 0.3194
  • Matt Owen (LGC) – 0.2411
  • Topher Field (LDP) – 0.1564
  • Ray Williams (SFF) – 0.1484
  • Ivan Davis (AJP) – 0.1336
  • Leanne Minshull (LOC) – 0.1308

Minshull’s preferences favoured Labor and Tyrrell most strongly:

  • Polley (ALP) – 0.9723
  • Askew (LIB) – 0.9563
  • Tyrrell (JLN) – 0.6846
  • Mav (ON) – 0.3313
  • Abetz (LIB) – 0.3206
  • Owen (LGC) – 0.2520
  • Field (LDP) – 0.1640
  • Williams (SFF) – 0.1555
  • Davis (AJP) – 0.1535

Animal Justice preferences pushed second Labor candidate Helen Polley over quota to win the fourth seat, while also flowing reasonably strongly to Tyrrell and Legalise Cannabis.

  • Polley (ALP) – 1.0062
  • Askew (LIB) – 0.9651
  • Tyrrell (JLN) – 0.7115
  • Mav (ON) – 0.3456
  • Abetz (LIB) – 0.3213
  • Owen (LGC) – 0.2971
  • Field (LDP) – 0.1686
  • Williams (SFF) – 0.1681

Almost half of Polley’s small surplus flowed to Tyrrell, and then Shooters preferences flowed most strongly to Legalise Cannabis and Tyrrell:

  • Askew (LIB) – 0.9933
  • Tyrrell (JLN) – 0.7515
  • Mav (ON) – 0.3732
  • Owen (LGC) – 0.3479
  • Abetz (LIB) – 0.3235
  • Field (LDP) – 0.1823

Liberal Democrats preferences elected Askew to the fifth seat:

  • Askew (LIB) – 1.0714
  • Tyrrell (JLN) – 0.7711
  • Mav (ON) – 0.4230
  • Owen (LGC) – 0.3643
  • Abetz (LIB) – 0.3306

Most of Askew’s surplus flowed to fellow Liberal Abetz:

  • Tyrrell (JLN) – 0.7719
  • Mav (ON) – 0.4231
  • Abetz (LIB) – 0.4005
  • Owen (LGC) – 0.3645

Legalise Cannabis preferences scattered, but favoured Tyrrell primarily:

  • Tyrrell (JLN) – 0.8882
  • Mav (ON) – 0.5036
  • Abetz (LIB) – 0.4641

Abetz preferences flowed roughly evenly between Tyrrell and Mav, but it was enough to give Tyrrell a full quota before all of Abetz’s votes had been distributed:

  • Tyrrell (JLN) – 1.0454
  • Mav (ON) – 0.6260
  • Abetz (LIB) – 0.0850

Candidates

Assessment
Labor and the Greens should maintain their seats, but it’s unlikely they could lift their vote high enough for Labor to gain a third seat from the other parties.

Jacqui Lambie should have a strong chance at re-election, which leaves just two seats leftover for the Liberal Party.

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39 COMMENTS

  1. I don’t rate Jacqui Lambie’s reelection odds that highly anymore.

    Ironically, JLN’s gains at the recent Tasmanian election could split the party. Many minor parties that get 1 or more MPs elected, other than the leader, end up imploding within a term e.g. One Nation, UAP, SFF, NXT (Centre Alliance) and more recently at the federal level, JLN. I could be wrong and the state JLN stays intact throughout the first term.

    A Senate result of LNP 3, ALP 2, GRN 1 looks more likely than LNP 2, ALP 2, GRN 1, JL 1. JL’s personal vote may save her if it’s strong enough.

  2. @votante agreed she gets a higher vote when coalition is in office due to Labor preferences although il rate her chances as fair this time I think Tammy tyrell will be defeated and jln won’t get another senator in 2028.

  4. Will Hodgeman should probably run since he no longer is a diplomat, and he will argue he can help the Libs wrestle back the lost senate seat.

  5. @daniel t unless one of the incumbents retires, the Tasmanian Liberal senate ticket was already locked last year as:

    1. Claire Chandler
    2. Richard Colbeck
    3. Jacki Martin

  8. JLN has just imploded at a state level. her vote was recently recorded at 8% but that was before the party imlpoded and along with Tammy Tyrells quiting it seem JL has got problems. if he cant maintain her 8% vote at the next election she could lose her senate spot. but that benefit the libs and gives the crosbench on less vote. if the libs can oust lambie and pocock it means labor will need faruqui tyrell and thorpe to pass legislation. as i doubt babet and hanson will give them anything

  9. Jackie Lambie should just focus on being independent senator for Tasmania and abandon any pretentions of being a party leader. It obviously does not go well for her. She has her own brand and should stick to the ‘core business’ as such. The danger is that she will become so distracted that she will lose.

  10. Redistributed, I wonder if Lambie is just like Pauline Hanson in that party members need to be ‘vetted’ by her and anyone who steps out of line is removed or forced to walk away (examples like Stephen Andrew, Mark Latham, Fraser Anning and Brian Burston).

  11. Quite possibly – a ‘narrow’ church with Pauline, Clive or Jackie occupying all ecclestical roles from prophet downwards

  12. Agree Redistributed, also forgot about Clive Palmer in that he along with Lambie and Hanson seem to be like Donald Trump in that they like control and as ‘personality’ figures they want to shape the party around them, not letting others try and influence their terms.

  13. Ironically, Lambie herself was ‘dumped’ from the Palmer United Party led by Clive. Now she is almost a carbon copy of her former leader, by pushing out fellow members like Steve Martin, Tammy Tyrrell and others.

  16. You would have to think that she would be a fairly good chance to get #6. Hard to see the Libs and the ALP not preferencing her before the Greens – who would quite likely get a quota of their own any way. The only way she may lose is if the Libs get three quotas of their own – hard to see that happening though.

  17. @redistributed in tasmania the libs will get 2 labor 2 greens 1 and 6th spot will be a contest between the lbs and JLN

  18. Jacqui Lambie has just been named the most likeable politician in Australia according to polling from Resolve Political Monitor published in the Sydney Morning Herald. She has a net likeability rating of +14 with 80% of voters having heard of her (way higher than I expected).

    The only Labor politician with a positive net likeability rating is Penny Wong (+2%), while every Greens and right-wing minor party politician has a negative net likeability rating.

    Most liked:
    1. Jacqui Lambie (JLN): +14% (80%)
    2. Jacinta Price (CLP): +8% (71%)
    3. Simon Birmingham (Liberal): +7% (44%)
    4. David Pocock (Independent): +5% (47%)
    5. Angus Taylor (Liberal): +4% (47%)

    Most disliked:
    1. Lidia Thorpe (Independent): –41% (73%)
    2. Barnaby Joyce (National): –22% (90%)
    3. Anthony Albanese (Labor): –17% (98%)
    4. Fatima Payman (Independent): –17% (56%)
    5. Bob Katter (KAP): –15% (72%)

    Most familiar:
    1. Anthony Albanese (Labor): 98% (–17%)
    2. Pauline Hanson (One Nation): 97% (–13%)
    3. Peter Dutton (LNP): 95% (±0%)
    4. Barnaby Joyce (National): 90% (–22%)
    5. Penny Wong (Labor): 89% (+2%)

    Note that only politicians who over 40% of respondents were familiar with were included.

    I cast my doubts on some of these but others are pretty accurate. I still don’t think 80% know who Jacqui Lambie is. I would say Bob Katter is more famous yet he has only 72% recognising him. But I ain’t spending any time on it!

  19. Some surprising numbers – Angus Taylor? Birmingham? I think Pocock’s popularity is a little understated too, a bit surprising to see the hate for Katter and Payman – definitely given Bandt and Hanson were only -13% apiece

  20. The reason Hanson and Bandy have such low ratings is because they are fringe parties who only appeal to a small portion of one side of politics. And their views are seem as extreme to the majority.

  21. I like looking at the quirks of Minor Parties and oddities in elections. Today, I take a look at Tasmania’s perennial senate candidate, and party hopper, Justin Stringer.

    In 2016, he was no.2 on PUP Ticket which received 2,363 votes (0.70%).
    In 2019, he was no.1 on the Conservatives Ticket which received 3,822 votes (1.09%).
    In 2022, he was no.2 on Federation Party Ticket which received 623 votes (0.17%).

    Any takers on which party he’ll be running for in 2025? ONP? SFF? LBT? That’s your first pick for obscure bingo on 2025 election night.
    ————————————-
    As for Lambie’s chances… in 2019 Libs and Lab got 2Q off the bat and Greens not far off 1Q. This left everyone else fighting for the last seat. Lambie had 0.62Q, Libs Surplus approx 0.2Q and ONP approx 0.24Q. No one else came close to Lambie.

    In 2022, Libs got 2Q off the bat again, while Lab only got 1 seat off the bat and Greens got 1Q. Labor was very close to 2Q so got their seat shortly after. Even with Lambie’s no.2 running, her party got 0.6Q compared to Libs Surplus approx 0.24Q and ONP approx 0.27Q. Again, no one came close to Lambie and was an easy victory.

    The trend between both elections saw ALP loose a bit mainly to the GRN, while LIB gained a small amount. Even with the shenanigans at State Level, I don’t think this will really affect the Senate. The outside chance threat to Lambie is if current polling trends hold (i.e. swing to Coalition between 1-3%) that somehow then means Lib Surplus and ONP combine to get either #3 Lib or #1 ONP elected, over Lambie #1, if her vote remains stagnate at the 0.6Q / approx 8.6% mark. Having Lambie run, and not her no.2, should increase her vote with name recognition and hopefully overcome the outside chance scenario above.

    JAN 25 Prediction: 2 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 LAM

  22. A few days ago on Pollbludger there was some opining that Jacqui Lambie could lose her seat. That could have just been partisan ranting. It seems unlikely though to me. It would mean the Libs getting 3 – unlikely. Possible even that Labor could get to one – though only an outside possibility. Thoughts folks?

  24. the last 2 elections the Greens have increased their vote by 4.3% and got a quota before prefs in 2022 (vote might have been higher if Local Party hadn’t run) Their high vote back in 2010 was 1.4 quota. If they can increase vote again to close to the 2010 vote then with strong pref flow from AJP and LCP then they will be in the mix through to the last part of the count. Unlikely to get enough to get a 2nd Senator but if Labor loose a few % it could be a bit of a race for the fifth & sixth seat between greens, Labor and JLN

  26. She would have a better chance next election when Lambie isnt up for re-election i think

  27. Lambie might have a shot at winning the last seat, pending her personal vote.

    There’s currently a father and daughter duo in NSW state parliament. I don’t think there’s been a mother and daughter duo in the same parliament at the same time.

  28. it will be 2 LIB 2 LAB 1 GRN and the last spot to be likely be a three way race between JLN, ONP and LIB as before

  29. It should also be noted that combined the onp/Lib votes totalled more then jln on the 3cp for the last seat however they favoured jln likely due to the Lib preferences jln over one. Something onp didn’t like and then prefer ces against moderate liberals I several seats. It should be noted in return they only received preferences in bass with jln preferencing Labor over libs in all other tasks seats. Likely costing the libs Lyons. The libs should be wanting prefences in Lyons as well. Besides an upper house seat is more valuable with tight numbers and there are those in the Lib party who wouldn’t mind bridget archer not being in parliament anyway.

    The right swing and preferences could unseat Lambie.

  30. JLN hasn’t announced lower house candidates in Tasmania, or none that I know of, let alone campaigned. This would affect volunteer base and voter consistency – voters voting for the same party for HoR and then senate. Last election, she had candidates in all seats except Clark.

  31. Still she probably wil. She did however direct prefernces to labor all but Bass. And this is what got labor overthe line. In Lyons. Also this time around she would almost certainly be the crucial in whether labor retains franklin. Without a preference deal she would be at risk of losing her senate spot if the numbers improved for onp/libs and they preferences each other.

  32. The Greens seem to have been talking up their chances of winning 2 senate seats and their #2 candidate Vanessa Bleyer. I’m not seeing as they didn’t even pull it off in 2010 when they cracked 20% of the vote statewide.

    Rather I think that’s their chosen “stretch goal” narrative for the state, to motivate extra campaigning when the senate seat is pretty safe. In SA and WA they’ve picked at least one “winnable seat” in the lower houe to focus campaigning on. I thought Tasmanian Greens were going to do that in Franklin, but they preselected a teenager (and highlight how young he is on all campaign materials), and teals seem to have the “left of Labor” momentum there. I guess it would help prepare Greens campaigning statewide as they await the next state election where they’d hope to win 7 seats.

    Most likely outcome is 2-2-1-1 (Lambie). Lambie branded politicians going astray doesn’t make me think Lambie herself has lost her appeal.

  33. Blue I’m saying the same however it will be 2 lib 2 lab 1 grn but I think the last spot could be a 3 way race between lib onp and lambic. Last time lambic got elected on lib prefernces after a controversial unhappy Pauline. The only seat lambic helped the libs out in was bass. So if she’s wanting help again I’d be wanting prefernces in Lyons and Braddon too. Otherwise an extra senate spot is worth more then Bridget archer who some liberals would be happy to see the back of. (Assuming lambic runs candidates this time). If she doesn’t run any lower house candidates onp could win with Pauline’s daughter running.

  34. Confirmation that the JLN has an expiry date. https://tasmanianinquirer.com.au/news/if-re-elected-my-next-term-will-be-my-last-jacqui-lambie-says/

    Once she goes those two seats will easily revert to Libs. That’s what’s gonn a happen with all these pop.up inds and minor parties. So the Libs just have to wait and outlast them. Unfortunately for Labor the greens will stay. The only exception is Katter having his son to replace him. If Lambie doesn’t run candidates in the Tasmanian lower house the Libs should easily win Lyons and Labor will be in trouble in Franklin. Tyrell wont get reelected in 2028

  35. By my maths only just over 11000 votes have to shift from JLN to onp for them to win a seat off Jacqui. Given she’s Pauline Hanson’s daughter and name recognition of the name Hanson with ONP she might just snag that seat. I’d wager having Pauline down there helping and putting her photo up with her will probably help. It couldn’t possibly hurt her because anyone who’s voting ONP already knows that.

  36. The Coalition isn’t assured of winning three seats in any other state. Sure they’d have a chance but just as likely they’ll go a right-wing minor party.

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