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Labor hold, reason being that Labor has a better relationship with the Chinese government and Dutton’s past actions and remarks won’t help them here. Also an area like this seems to be better off so mortgage rise have as much of a impact here.
If this was before a redistribution that put Canning Vale into the electorate I would’ve said Liberal gain. However, Canning Vale being a newly developed area in recent times is strongly Labor, added with the positive sentiments towards Labor working to rebuild China-Australia partnership should help Labor. Not to mention Sam Lim being actually quite popular in the area, particularly during COVID as a police officer who translated information into 10 different languages for the community. The northern part by the Swan River is tealish rather than deep blue ribbon and Dutton will be unpopular there because he’s hard conservative.
I sense that Labor has a chance to hold on, like Bennelong for similar reasons. Whilst the consensus about Gilmore, Paterson, Lingiari, Bullwinkel etc I agree will be Coalition gains, this could be one that holds on based off personal vote and a diverse demographic.
Not really sure China relations would be a big issue here as the Chinese Community in Perth mainly hails from Malaysia unlike other Capital Cities mainly hails from the Mainland.
Sam Lim likely will have a strong personal vote, possibly the strongest out of any recently elected MP. That could be enough for him to retain since Labor seems to be holding firm in WA in contrast to other states. Either way I expect any anti-ALP swing to be less here than in other WA seats.
You’d think the Libs could overturn the defrceit here if they have any hope of winning the overlapping state seats
@Marh Sam Lim himself is from Malaysia in any case.
A general correction swing in WA should in theory be enough for the Libs to comfortably win this seat. However, Sam Lim is a tough opponent with a strong personal following so the swing will be less than in other WA seats. The question is whether Sam Lim will be able to minimise the swing enough to hold on. The Libs have done themselves a favour to switch out their original trainwreck candidate to Howard Ong but Dutton seems to be appealing less to the sort of demographics in Tangney: affluent + large Chinese community.
Tangney was the surprise win from Western Australia. I would have thought Moore would have been a more likely win. Who knows Sam Lim may hold on.
Maybe people from Perth would know better but this seat looks like the WA equivalent of Menzies and Bennelong. Big Chinese population, lots of university educated people, similar median income. Considering Labor won Bennelong, and came pretty close in Menzies (and would on new boundaries) the win actually makes a lot of sense given how well Labor did in Perth.
I actually think the Labor vote here doesn’t look as inflated here as it does in other Perth seats. It’s only really 2-3% more Labor than Bennelong/Menzies. Unlike the rest of the country, in WA the swing was on with every demographic. In other states it was mainly in inner city/well educated seats.
I actually think Labor will win this.
I don’t think the China issue is much of the issue for the Chinese Community of Perth compared to other major cities as Perth’s Chinese Community tend to hail from Malaysia/Singapore (most are apathetic/indifferent to the issue) rather than from Mainland China. On 2021 Census, 3.7% Tangney is born in Mainland China which would even below average for Greater Sydney (4.6%) and is only slightly higher than Greater Melbourne (3.4%). Even Adelaide and Brisbane has has seat with higher percentages born on Mainland China than Tangney with 4.7% for Sturt and 6.3% for Moreton.