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Maybe if the Liberals switched preferences it could make this competitive but again I don’t think that will happen here. Labor hold with a swing small to the Greens.
Greens have preselected Luc Velez, member of the Mardi Gras board. The Mardi Gras website describes him as “an organiser, law student and socialist”. Seems like someone intelligent, who’d be good at running a campaign, but also doesn’t scream “credible alternative local MP”, at least not yet.
The Greens haven’t even bothered to profile him on their website. Quite clear they aren’t going to put up much of a challenge in the seat (at least in terms of campaign resources).
Will Greens slip into 3rd? They got 2nd in 2022 without much of a campaign and I think Plibersek’s vote will take a small hit with the realities of Labor in government really messing with the “progressive within Labor” thing.
If Greens can hold 2nd, with LNP preferences (which most people have ruled out) the margin could get quite close. But Plibersek’s primary is far too high, and the Greens aren’t going to accidentally win a seat they’re sleeping on 2-3 months out from an election.