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Maybe if the Liberals switched preferences it could make this competitive but again I don’t think that will happen here. Labor hold with a swing small to the Greens.
Greens have preselected Luc Velez, member of the Mardi Gras board. The Mardi Gras website describes him as “an organiser, law student and socialist”. Seems like someone intelligent, who’d be good at running a campaign, but also doesn’t scream “credible alternative local MP”, at least not yet.
The Greens haven’t even bothered to profile him on their website. Quite clear they aren’t going to put up much of a challenge in the seat (at least in terms of campaign resources).
Will Greens slip into 3rd? They got 2nd in 2022 without much of a campaign and I think Plibersek’s vote will take a small hit with the realities of Labor in government really messing with the “progressive within Labor” thing.
If Greens can hold 2nd, with LNP preferences (which most people have ruled out) the margin could get quite close. But Plibersek’s primary is far too high, and the Greens aren’t going to accidentally win a seat they’re sleeping on 2-3 months out from an election.
Once Plibersek retires this will probably be a Green gain but for the time being Labor retain
In 2022, the Greens entered the 2PP for the first time. It was a good election for the Greens and a bad one for the Liberals. There could be a recalibration with the Liberals improving and the Greens declining and thus making it an ALP vs LIB contest again.
The Return to Office (RTO) since Covid may bolster the Labor/Liberal vote. I also think that rising rents have pushed out students and other core demographics of the Greens.
I don’t see Plibersek ever losing her seat. Other than her retirement, a big factor that could make it more competitive for the Greens is a redistribution that pushes Sydney westward to encompass the whole of Newtown and more of Inner West Council e.g. Enmore, Stanmore, Camperdown. Such suburbs are deep Green politically.