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Must mention I am aware that the by-election of state seat of Black isn’t covered by this electorate I am referring to state Labor apparent popularity and how the state Liberals seems to keep shooting themselves in the foot.
Yes Spacefish they must target it as a potential gain. Also Sturt is a Tealish seat where Dutton will not be popular. It is not a mortgage belt seat or a white working class seat where Dutton will do best.
@SpaceFish possibly a tossup, while Labor have the edge because of Dutton being Dutton and also he was the one who knifed Turnbull and started half of the turmoil, plus this is a richer seat so COL will mean less, but I certainly won’t rule out a Liberal hold given Labor is on the nose federally.
What puts this seat as more favourable for Labor is that any movements in Greens vote that goes up delivers the seat to the ALP due to preferences and the fact that the margin is less than 1%, unless if the Liberal primary vote increases by 10% which won’t happen. Labor and Greens have been campaigning already in the electorate and there’s a gradual shift to the left in this electorate particularly in the southern end which is emerging from conservative old money to a more progressive left-wing cohort with younger people moving in.
As someone who lives in here I wouldn’t mind seeing James Stevens lose his seat to Labor. As a supposed Moderate he’s not broken away from party positions on extreme political positions, and given that the state Liberals are a shambles and he’s part of it, it wouldn’t surprise me if this seat flips next election.
Also as Nether Portal mentioned, this seat is not mortgage belt heavy or working class (apart from the north but that is very CALD and the cohort is very anti-Liberal as there’s a decent Muslim population up in Gilles Plains), but it’s progressive inner-city left meets affluent money. Then you have Malinauskas and his government being very popular which could have some halo effect on the federal vote. We’ll have to wait and see.
Sorry I was meant to say @Nimalan.
https://www.indailysa.com.au/news/just-in/2024/12/17/teal-independent-joins-crowded-race-for-sturt
A teal will be running here in Sturt. This will prove to be a waste of money for Climate 200 and prevent Labor from winning this seat (though they probably weren’t in the running to begin with). It’ll be the same dynamic as in Hawthorn 2022 where the teal candidate helped return a Liberal member by causing leakage to Labor.
A teal ran in Boothby and it was a flop
@Douglas potentially yes this could actually help the Liberals since teals rely on tactical voting.
@nimalan Jo Dyer and Dr Cooper are two very different independents. Dyer was labor lite – even down to her campaign colour, and didn’t really know what she stood for, just drew votes away from Miller-Frost. No doubt if a teal independent ran in Sturt in 22 they would’ve won. I suspect time won’t be on Dr Cooper’s side as the major parties + greens have that advantage
I have a feeling the teal movement won’t be as successful this election cycle and will probably die down. I personally feel that the seats that the teals won other then Bradfield or Ryan I don’t see anything outside of that. A side note I don’t expect them to cut through in Ryan at all now.
State does not equal federal but there is a problem in that the state liberals have lost
2 seats in by-elections. This is unheard of.
State seats of Hartley and Coles fall within this seat and on state figures as both marginal lib.
This may suggest the momentum is with
Labor…. never the less this will be a toss up
@Mick happened to NSW Labor in 2008 (Ryde) and 2010 (Penrith). There were record swings to the Liberals in those seats and Labor went on to lose in a landslide that was the worst ever defeat of a sitting government in the state’s history in 2011. Those seats are now key marginal seats (Penrith is a marginal Labor seat and Ryde is an ultra-marginal Liberal seat).
Mistake
Should be
Hartley and Morialta