Sturt – Australia 2025

Labor should have targeted this electorate in 2022 more as I reckon I could have fallen, its too early at this stage to say who the favourites here but it could got either way in 2025.

@Bob if Labor wins this seat and the Liberals fail to gain any other Adelaide seats (namely Boothby, where they had a retiring member (Nicole Flint) and although they finished ahead on primaries lost on TPP to Labor), then Labor will hold every federal seat in Adelaide as Sturt is the only Liberal seat in Adelaide (but in contrast, the Liberals hold every federal SA seat outside Adelaide except Mayo, which is held by Rebekha Sharkie for the Centre Alliance). Similarly, the Liberals only hold three federal seats in Melbourne (Deakin, Flinders and Menzies; Flinders is their only safe seat in Melbourne and even then only half of Flinders is actually in Melbourne) after their historic loss at the Aston by-election in April, one federal seat in Perth (Moore) and no federal seats in Canberra, Hobart or Darwin (while in contrast the vast majority of seats outside the major cities are Coalition-held). The Coalition still has a number of federal seats in Sydney and Brisbane (and plus they normally have at least some others in Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide) but most are in the outer suburbs.

@Nether Portal, Casey and La Trobe are also mostly in suburban Melbourne (much more so than Flinders), although I don’t see Labor picking up either of those seats on the current boundaries, despite Casey being very marginal.
Deakin and Menzies, particularly Deakin, will be ripe for the picking, with the caveat of the redistribution.

The AEC classifies Divisions as Inner Metropolitan, Outer Metropolitan, Provincial, and Rural.
Flinders and Casey are Rural while La Trobe is Provincial.
https://aec.gov.au/profiles/
Click on the profile for the Division you are interested in, then scroll down until you see ‘Demographic rating:’ on the left side of the screen.

Kind of ridiculous that the ABS and AEC can’t talk to each and align their classification of metropolitan, regional and rural. Anyone who know Casey knows that places like Chirnside Park, Mooroolbark, Lilydale, Upwey, Belgrave etc are very metropolitan. Also wouldn’t call Pakenham ‘provincial’ it is very much ‘the burbs’.

Sturt is perhaps the most winnable Liberal seat for Labor along with Deakin and Menzies (pending redistributions). If Aston could swing to Labor, then so should Sturt.

I believe the Liberals hold 4 out of 40-something inner-metropolitan seats (based on AEC’s definition) and Labor, Greens and teals hold the rest.

Sonja was a dummy candidate for the ALP, merely selected by the FEC, only two weeks out did the party realize it was winnable – this was evident with Albo’s visit with Gillard there instead of Boothby where funding, and grassroots power was high, Boothby also happens to be Gillards home. If a Jo Dyer who ran as a independent, but not a teal one, in Boothby ran in Sturt she would’ve won. Out of all seats in SA Sturt is the most likely to be picked up by the Greens.

Stevens is nervous as he should be, evident by him taking every chance to speak in the chamber this Parliament, shame it doesn’t translate to on the ground action.

Labor has got to be more optimistic about picking up Sturt, after their win at the Dunstan by-election. To be fair, the Liberal by-election candidate was a parachuted one. Candidate quality and local connections are important for 2025.

Federal means nothing to state. Sturt will depend on if Labor survives in the polls.

Sturt has a Tealish small l liberal demographic which is hostile to Dutton so along with Menzies, Deakin are probably the best pick up prospects for Labor.

@Votante to be fair the voter turnout was under 50%. Surely that had something to do with it.

I think Labor benefited from a serious Greens campaign in Dunstan. Greens will be short on LNP held target seats, and don’t seem to have the base they used to in Casey, so they would have good cause to target this seat.

@Nether Portal There are many votes still to be counted. The current count is low because SA is the only state that still treats pre-poll votes as declaration votes that are not counted on the night or on Sunday.

A large part of Sturt, especially the western parts, is like Higgins – wealthy, highly-educated, small l-liberal, no teal candidate in 2022 and had swings to Labor. As @Nimalan mentioned, this is a good target for Labor.

@Votante I live in the electorate and I think you’re pretty much bang on in terms of your description. The north of the electorate (Gilles Plains, Holden Hill) is a solid block of working-class Labor area, the West (Marden, Maylands, Kent Town) is small-l, teal territory with pockets of solid Liberal support around St Peters. The middle section is a mortgage belt (Tranmere, Hectorville, Magill) which also contains a big Italian/Greek population in the eastern side (Campbelltown, Rostrevor, Newton, Athelstone) which are usually Liberal but can swing.

The South is much more interesting in that it’s your usually affluent new money with some of the most expensive housing in the state as well as a big proportion of retirees and wealthy people (Wattle Park, Beaumont, Hazelwood Park, Glen Osmond, Burnside), but it’s also home to some of the best primary and secondary schools in the state with a highly progressive vote coming from graduating students, which is why we’re seeing places like Kensington, Kensington Park, Norwood, Glenunga etc swing hard last time to Labor and winning a number of these booths. It was really the postals and the far south of the electorate (Myrtle Bank, Tusmore) that saved the Liberals from an otherwise blowout result. If Dunstan’s results were repeated federally then James Stevens will be in trouble next election given they’re bleeding votes to the Greens whose preferences will help Labor, maybe the Greens might even catapult themselves into 2nd place and win on Labor preferences.

@Tommo9, the big swing to Labor in Southern part of Sturt you referred is also due to the large Chinese Community which disliked Scott Morrison’s anti-China rhetoric.

This will be one of few loses for the libs

It’s pretty unlikely that the Greens can win this at the next election. I think this will require a two-election strategy – getting into a winnable position in 2025 in order to win the seat in 2028. For 2025, that would probably mean getting 3CP between Labor and Greens within 5-10 points (currently 13.3%) – aiming to get the Greens in a similar position Griffith was after the 2019 election (Greens being 7 points behind Labor in 3CP).

The reality is that Labor will likely throw the kitchen sink at Sturt so it’s unlikely Labor’s primary vote will fall enough for the Greens to get ahead of Labor. The Greens also don’t have an obvious area of strength where they are already outpolling Labor /Liberal like they have with other target seats. Not having a Green-strong area like Byron Bay, St Kilda or The Gabba will make it hard for the Greens to compensate for large “losses” in the suburban parts of the seat where Labor and Liberal will probably vastly outpoll the Greens. Perhaps Kent Town and Norwood will start emerging as these strong areas for the Greens, but they’re not there yet.

The other point I would make is a similar point that @John made in saying that a strong Greens campaign could benefit Labor and help them get elected here in 2025. How much harder or easier does that make it for the Greens to win the seat in 2028 or later? I am not sure.

Whilst I’m not denying state factors were at play, the by-election result in Dunstan is just the latest example of an inner-city, Liberal-voting electorates turning away from the Liberals to either Labor, Green or teal. This could be part of a trend. Dunstan stayed Liberal for so long most likely because of Steven Marshall’s personal vote. I do note that Dunstan tends to be swingy.

@Tommo9, you gave an interesting and informative analysis of the demographics. Since metro Adelaide’s density is low, the average electorate size is huge compared to those of other capital cities. Sturt covers a mix of demographics.

If the Greens can’t win booths in the west (Kent Town, Norwood) where there are more renters and teal-ish liberals then they won’t win Sturt given there are working-class suburbs, mortgage belt suburbs and affluent suburbs with large numbers of retirees and expensive realestate.

Greens have indeed declared it a target seat. Agree with Votante that if they’re not even solidly winning their “base” booths it will be difficult, although much of Sturt has an analogue in the 3 QLD seats Greens need to hold.

Real risk of campaign saturation here though (if both majors determine Boothby is in the bag and no strong independent emerges in Grey) which is something that drives voters back to their well established voting patterns.

@ Votante
Agree this is demographically mixed seat which is why there was no Teal who ran. Boothby is also demographically mixed and includes working class suburbs in the Central parts. The Teal who ran in Boothby flopped for this reason. Interestingly, Norwood was the seat represented by Don Dunstan and Steven Marshall won it from Labor in 2010 so probably not a heartland seat for the Libs.

3CP swing Greens need to overtake Labor

Sturt: 6.61%
Boothby: 7.14%
Adelaide: 9.33%

So I get why they would consider Sturt first, but even if Greens outpoll Labor, they wouldn’t necessarily win. Adelaide would be a seat that if the Greens were to outpoll Labor the Greens would win almost every time.

Thanks to Adelaide’s small population, this seat goes into different areas. It’s like placing the Melbourne seats of Kooyong, Higgins and parts of Hotham, Menzies and Chisholm all into one seat

The seat is Sturt btw

Katie McCusker has been announced as the Greens candidate for Sturt once again. Feels like she’s quite desperate to get into parliament one way or another (Fed or State), although a number of Greens candidates are like that. At least she’s consistent with the area she’s representing unlike some of the Melbourne Green candidates who are seat-shifting (the Aston by-election candidate now contesting Higgins, the Higgins candidate contesting Macnamara etc).

You’d think the voters who voted Labor last time would want a more high profile and inspiring candidate. That itself could make the difference between whether the Liberals increase their margins or Labor wins it from them given the wafer thin margin. Without a good candidate the Liberals could hold on (unless if Greens vote surge which will still benefit Labor) but a good candidate and a popular state government means it’s game over.

Probably one of the few prospects for Labor next election. They need to go hard in this electorate to win it.

Albanese this morning revealed lawyer and local councillor Claire Clutterham was his pick to run as Labor’s candidate against Liberal MP James Stevens in the ultra-marginal eastern suburbs seat.

Clutterham is a special counsel at LK Law and an elected Norwood Payneham and St Peters councillor.

Her resume includes stints at Boeing as deputy director of contracts and at submarine builder ASC as deputy general counsel.

Albanese said Clutterham had “been an advocate for South Australians all her life, and I’ve asked her to stand as Labor’s candidate for Sturt”.

A Labor Party source said Albanese took a keen interest in Sturt, with Clutterham pursued by both the party and the PM to run.

this will be a lineball seat. 12 months ago i would have said a labor gain but after the lackluster win in the by election i think the libs can hold it especially coming from opposition

If it’s true that Labor’s candidate Claire Clutterham has worked in senior positions at Boeing and submarine builder ASC, this leaves Labor quite vulnerable to attacks from the Greens, as the Greens can tie her and Labor more easily to AUKUS and defence spending. I don’t think having ties to these companies is seen at all as a positive by Greens voters or swing ALP/Green voters. It seems Labor is leaving their left flank vulnerable here. Whether that matters though is another matter.

Speaking as someone who lives in Sturt, I don’t think AUKUS and Defence is really something that people in this electorate (or in SA overall) is too concerned about. In fact in SA (where AUKUS submarines are being built) it’s probably viewed as a somewhat good thing for jobs and investment, though that might be moreso in the western suburbs (Labor heartland) than east, but it won’t rate a huge issue either way.

Sturt is becoming younger in the usually blue areas, particularly around Norwood, Kensington etc where some of Adelaide’s best high schools are located and the graduates there are super progressive. That might be better for the Greens than Labor but given that it’s tricky for the Greens to topple Labor in one go if their votes increase it could help Labor beat Liberals on preferences. The margin is wafer thin at 0.5% and it’s well within reach for Labor.

If a Teal ran in Sturt next year it could be a different story altogether. I think they’d be in a good position to usurp the two majors and win easily.

Teals won’t win in a marginal seat. It just does not happen. Very hard for independents to win a 2-horse marginal seat.

Daniel T is correct the Teal will not win Sturt as the Teals rely on tactical voting by Greens/Labor similar to why a Teal cannot win Higgins or the state seat of Caulfield (Vic). Also i agree with Tommo9, i dont think AUKUS will hurt Labor here, none of Sturt is really Hard left. Areas where AUKUS will be hated will be very left wing suburbs such as Fremantle, Fizroy, Brunswick, Newtown, West End etc. The Greens will campaign on AUKUS in Wills though.

@Nimalan, correct as the seat voted No to the Voice which is a good indicator if Teal can do well there. The seat is probably more like Menzies but with a bit Kooyong and Jagajaga combined there is a large Chinese and Italian Community in the seat.

@ Marh
Agree, as Adelaide is a smaller city this seat covers a wider range of demographics and not all of it is very wealthy although Beaumont, Glen Osmond are like Teal suburbs. Also good point about the Chinese and Italian communities which make similar to Menzies in that respect as well.

@Nimalan @Marh I would’ve thought Sturt was a bit like a mix of Higgins (particularly the western end like Kent Town, Norwood, Kensington basically suburbs that used to be blue but have now started showing shades of Green), Chisholm (bigger Chinese community in the middle and southern end near all the private schools), Kooyong (Glen Osmond and Beaumont which are like Balwyn, Toorak and Armadale with affluent old money and retirees and solidly Liberal) and Hotham (working class suburbs of the north like Windsor Gardens, Gilles Plains). It’s a real hodge-podge of demographics but it’s definitely favouring Labor these days and the state government here is still fairly popular so that momentum would only help them.

Also an interesting point about Fremantle being somewhere that AUKUS is unpopular. I know it’s probably one of the greener areas of Perth, but unless if I misinterpreted it for Rockingham, I thought there were parts of AUKUS which were going to be done in Fremantle which would’ve meant more jobs that would be good for the area? Given Fremantle is very industrial-based (and naturally, a Labor stronghold), AUKUS would surely be perceived as somewhat positive versus somewhere like Northbridge or even Cottesloe/Peppermint Grove.

@ Tommo9
Regarding Fremantle my comments where more about it being socially progressive Greenish rather than Tealish area. Also Local Federal Labor MP is anti-AUKUS, However, that does not put the seat in jeopardy. Good Point about industrial jobs i forgot about that. In terms of Cottlesloe/Peppermint Grove i am not sure there is anti-AUKUS sentiment i feel these areas still have Anglophile population who believe in the Alliance of Democracies theory. The other community where AUKUS will be deeply unpopular is Muslim community not due to nuclear submarines but Anti-Americanism.

Agree Nimalan, Fremantle can be seen as the sort of progressive left green voting area in a similar mould to places like Balmain for Sydney and South Bank/West End for Brisbane. Whilst these areas can still be considered ‘wealthy’ to some extent, they are not like other affluent suburbs which are the blue green ‘teal’ strongholds.

@Tommo, thanks for the local perspective, I get your points and it sounds like AUKUS won’t be a net negative here. However, if you say that a teal could feasibly win Sturt, I think it makes sense that “post-material” issues like anti-AUKUS sentiment could resonate in some parts of the electorate. And my feeling is that AUKUS can quite easily become a material (hip-pocket) issue too once its obscene cost and opportunity costs are factored in, so it can work as a campaign issue in multiple parts of the electorate, especially if the Labor candidate is seen to be (negatively) associated with AUKUS.

@Greens Political Party Supporter I think there are definitely certain parts of the electorate that are anti-AUKUS, for example those in the middle/southern area where all the private schools are and a lot of the graduating students hold fairly left-wing views and when they get a chance to vote, they’re likely to vote on face-value issues (like AUKUS) and swing behind the likes of the Greens and to a lesser extent Labor. However that sentiment is balanced by the older skewing folks in the far south that have Liberal blue running down their blood (figuratively) who’d probably perceive it as something positive, along with the Labor industrial base north of North East Road.

As for my Teal comment, yes Daniel T and Nimalan are correct that a Teal would probably be unlikely to win this electorate given its diverse base, the only Teal areas are the west (Kent Town, Norwood), middle/south portion which is becoming younger and more left-wing. In today’s climate, that benefits Labor, who also has the advantage of a fairly popular state government who’s pouring resources left right and centre. If in future redistributions Sturt is cut in half (North-South orientation) then maybe a Teal could come in and steal this space, but as of now I think Labor’s in pole position to snatch this seat next year if they play their cards right (mostly thanks to Green preferences I might add).

The Greens listed the 5 seats they were targeting in 2025: Sturt, Wills, Macnamara, Perth and Richmond. Not sure I really buy Sturt as a Green target seat. I feel like Adelaide and Boothby would make more sense for them. Seems like every state Greens branch is targeting a seat (except Tassie).

One assumes the Greens will target Clark when Andrew Wilkie decides to retire.

I think one reason for the Greens targeting Sturt is that they want to prevent attacks from Labor saying that the Greens just target Labor seats. Another is that the SA Greens seem to have put more effort into the areas in Sturt in recent years so may not have developed the capacity to run winnable seat campaigns in Adelaide or Boothby yet.

Also, the Dunstan by-eleciton result was fairly promising – the Greens basically equalled their 2022 federal results, which is no mean feat when you consider that SA state Labor generally performs much better than federal Labor, and the Green vote at SA state elections is normally much lower than federal. If the Greens can make the kinds of inroads they made in Dunstan when there’s a “popular” SA state Labor government at the helm, it should be a comparatively easier task to start taking votes off Labor in Sturt with a more unpopular and more attackable federal Labor government.

@drake of those 5 only 3 have a chance of being won by the greens. Macnamara, Richmond and Wills. Perth will become more favourable to the libs after ahedding bassandean and may fall to the libs in 2028. Stirt will continue to be a lib vs labor contest and will be loneball but I’m predicting lib retain

This is the least Indigenous seat in South Australia (only 0.8% are Indigenous). Unsurprisingly, Grey is the most Indigenous seat in South Australia (7.4% are Indigenous).

Yeah, looking like LIB retain, federal swing is not on in Sturt irrespective of Malinauskas insane popularity

Speaking as a local, I don’t think you can quite put this seat out of play quite yet. I’ve seen and heard a lot from both Labor and Greens candidates here who’s been campaigning since earlier this year. Any shift in primary votes away from the Liberals to either Labor or Greens will hand the seat to Labor or if there’s a massive surge in Greens vote (there probably won’t), the Greens themselves.

James Stevens is a moderate member of the Liberals but he’s been toeing the party line for ages and in the face of a more progressive electorate overall (compared to the days of Christopher Pyne) it’s going to be tricky for him to keep the seat safe unless he shows off more of his progressivism, small-l approach towards politics.

My broad prediction is that Dutton will do better than Morrison in the Abbott-Shorten-Morrison seats (all still LNP held) – anglo lower middle class outer suburbs. But he’ll also do even worse than Morrison in Victoria and SA (including their lower middle class anglo suburbs). So this is a key seat.

Climate 200 has flagged it as a potential target in addition to the Labor and Greens campaigns Tommo9 mentioned.

@Blue Not John he’ll do even worse in Tassie as well, I’ve seen some MRP polls where the Libs are polling 4% in Clark.

He’ll do fine in Braddon and probably Lyons. Bass is interesting because the Liberals will do well in spite of Dutton and moreso because of Bridget Archer. As for the polls in Clark, well the Liberal vote has all but evaporated since Andrew Wilkie’s election so it isn’t a surprise. The Greens are getting closer to 3rd place on primaries, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Liberals are doing poorly in Franklin as well.

Tasmania’s political situation is a polarised state of affairs with the north being conservative and the south being progressive.

Back to Sturt, I think it’s still in play but it’s hard to predict who will definitely win until close to the election. Labor and Greens both have a good chance but it’s hard to say who will triumph.

The Liberals won’t poll 4% in Clark, that’s virtually impossible. They will poll at least 10%.

After by-election results at the state level I wonder if Labor will target this seat as they’ll possible have loses elsewhere in the country where the brand is a bit on the nose.