LIB 0.5%
Incumbent MP
James Stevens, since 2019.
Geography
Sturt lies in the eastern suburbs of Adelaide. The southern part of the seat covers most of Burnside LGA, while Campbelltown and Norwood Payneham and St Peters LGAs cover the centre of the seat, and parts of the Port Adelaide Enfield and Tea Tree Gully LGAs cover the north of the seat.
Sturt stretches north to Grand Junction Road, and key suburbs include Glen Osmond, Burnside, Magill, Felixstow, Campbelltown, Klemzig, Gilles Plains, Rostrevor, Newton, Norwood, Stepney, Paradise, Athelstone and Highbury.
History
Sturt was created for the 1949 election, and has almost always been held by the Liberal Party. Indeed, except for two terms when it was held by the ALP, the seat was held by the same family from its creation until 1993.
The seat was first won by Keith Wilson in 1949. He lost the seat in 1954 to Norman Makin. Makin had served in the House of Representatives from 1919 to 1946, during which time he served as Speaker of the House of Representatives and a Minister in the Curtin and Chifley governments, before becoming Ambassador to the United States.
Makin abandoned the seat in 1955 for the safer Bonython, and Wilson returned to the seat. Wilson retired in 1966 and was succeeded by his son Ian. Ian served as a junior minister in the last term of the Fraser government before going to the backbench after the election of the Hawke government.
Wilson was challenged for preselection in 1993 by 25-year-old Christopher Pyne. Pyne held the seat for the next 26 years, serving as a minister in the Howard government and as a senior minister in the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison government, before retiring in 2019.
Liberal candidate James Stevens won the seat in 2019, and was re-elected in 2022.
- Peter Bogatec (One Nation)
- Claire Clutterham (Labor)
- Verity Cooper (Independent)
- Nicholas Duffield (Trumpet of Patriots)
- Mervin Joshua (Family First)
- Katie McCusker (Greens)
- James Stevens (Liberal)
Assessment
Sturt is now a very marginal seat. If the Liberal Party is unable to rebuild its support with its former urban base Sturt could be vulnerable.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| James Stevens | Liberal | 48,579 | 43.1 | -7.4 |
| Sonja Baram | Labor | 34,528 | 30.7 | +0.8 |
| Katie McCusker | Greens | 18,454 | 16.4 | +5.2 |
| Stephen Grant | United Australia | 3,008 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| Alexander Allwood | One Nation | 2,893 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| David Sherlock | Animal Justice | 1,531 | 1.4 | -0.3 |
| Thomas McMahon | Liberal Democrats | 1,147 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Inty Elham | Democratic Alliance | 1,007 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Kathy Scarborough | Federation Party | 755 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Angela Fulco | Labor | 457 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| Chris Schmidt | TNL | 251 | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| Informal | 6,541 | 5.5 | +0.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| James Stevens | Liberal | 56,813 | 50.5 | -6.4 |
| Sonja Baram | Labor | 55,797 | 49.5 | +6.4 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (52.4%) and north (53.6%), while the Liberal Party polled 50.4% in the south. The Liberal candidate won thanks to a stronger performance on the pre-poll and other votes.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14.8% on the pre-poll to 19.6% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 19.6 | 50.4 | 27,652 | 24.6 |
| Central | 16.9 | 47.6 | 16,291 | 14.5 |
| North | 15.8 | 46.4 | 12,575 | 11.2 |
| Pre-poll | 14.8 | 51.9 | 31,193 | 27.7 |
| Other votes | 14.7 | 52.6 | 24,899 | 22.1 |
Election results in Sturt at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
@Votante The Greens always overestimate their gains. At the QLD state election they said they were confident of winning 10 seats, when they only picked up one.
@Jimbo there are many factors that work towards a Labor flip in this seat. Not withstanding the popularity of the Labor brand in general in SA (Albanese isn’t disliked here like he is in Queensland for example), the Greens making inroads in the Norwood and Kensington areas will help fuel Labor through preferences. North of the Torrens River is strong Labor voting territory which I expect to stay stable. The other thing is that Clutterham and McCusker have both been door-knocking everywhere, but James Stevens almost seems to be winging it with a less than prominent campaign. The Teal candidate throws a spanner into the works but I doubt it’ll make a huge impact.
If the Greens increase and Liberals decrease by any measure with Labor staying stable then it’s quite likely Labor wins. For the first time in forever this seat is genuinely in play and as a resident of Sturt I say bring it on.
@Tommo9 It will be a challenge for Stevens to hold this seat, his parties policies are at odds with where a lot of Sturt now leans. The demographics changed over the years and leans more progressive. Saw that with the Green vote increase in 2022. Possibly his only hope is strengthening his primary vote in the southern booths.
Interesting to see a Teal candidate in the ring for this election. She could be a surprise king/queen maker for this seat. Will be interesting to see how Claire Cutterham goes, good pick here I think.
Has any polling been done specifically on Sturt?
I would have called the seat in play in 2022. Now it’s probably the most likely opportunity for Labor to pick up a seat from the Liberals. And I expect they will as long as current polls hold – SA hasn’t been getting any better for the Liberals since 2022 and this is a seat that has trended left over time.
According to Kos Samaras, Sturt has the eight largest number of commonwealth public servants among all federal seats. The Coalition’s policy to slash the commonwealth public service can cause backlash in Sturt and may well help them hand the seat to Labor. https://x.com/KosSamaras/status/1906172304931094660
@joseph these people probably voted labor in 2022 anyway