ALP 6.0%
Incumbent MP
Pat Conroy, since 2016. Previously member for Charlton 2013-2016.
Geography
Lake Macquarie and Central Coast regions of New South Wales. Shortland covers the suburbs of Lake Macquarie council on the eastern shore of Lake Macquarie, as well as northeastern suburbs of the Central Coast LGA. Key suburbs include Belmont, Charlestown, Cardiff, Warners Bay, Gateshead, Swansea, Budgewoi and Lake Munmorah.
Redistribution
Shortland expanded slightly on the north-western edge, taking in Argenton and Glendale.
History
Shortland was created in 1949, and has usually been a safe Labor seat, with the ALP polling over 60% at most elections.
The seat was first won in 1949 by the ALP’s Charles Griffiths, an official for the Australian Railways Union. Griffiths held the seat for the entirety of the 1950s and 1960s, and retired in 1972. He was replaced in 1972 by Peter Morris. Morris served as a junior minister from the election of the Hawke government in 1983 until he was promoted to Cabinet in 1988. He was dropped from Cabinet in 1990 due to lack of factional support and retired in 1998.
The seat was won in 1998 by Jill Hall, who had been elected to the state seat of Swansea in 1995. Hall held the seat for six terms.
The redistribution leading up to the 2016 election abolished the neighbouring seat of Charlton. Pat Conroy, who had held the seat of Charlton since 2013, replaced Jill Hall in Shortland. Conroy was re-elected in 2019 and 2022.
- Pat Conroy (Labor)
- Pietro Di Girolamo (Family First)
- Therese Doyle (Greens)
- Emma King (Liberal)
- Barry Reed (One Nation)
Assessment
Shortland is not as safe for Labor as it once was, but Conroy is likely to retain his seat in 2025.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Pat Conroy | Labor | 40,135 | 40.0 | -1.1 | 40.2 |
| Nell McGill | Liberal | 32,215 | 32.1 | -5.3 | 31.8 |
| Kim Grierson | Greens | 9,910 | 9.9 | +1.6 | 9.9 |
| Quintin King | One Nation | 6,397 | 6.4 | +6.4 | 6.4 |
| Kenneth Maxwell | United Australia | 3,125 | 3.1 | -1.4 | 3.2 |
| Bree Roberts | Animal Justice | 2,979 | 3.0 | -0.6 | 3.0 |
| Barry Reed | Liberal Democrats | 2,984 | 3.0 | +3.0 | 2.9 |
| Basil Paynter | Independent | 2,554 | 2.5 | +2.6 | 2.5 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 6,467 | 6.1 | -0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Pat Conroy | Labor | 55,985 | 55.8 | +1.4 | 56.0 |
| Nell McGill | Liberal | 44,314 | 44.2 | -1.4 | 44.0 |
Booths have been divided into five areas: Cardiff-Warners Bay in the north-west, Charlestown in the north-east, and then from north to south Belmont, Swansea and Wyong. The “Wyong” area covers those polling places in the former Wyong Shire, with the remaining polling places in the City of Lake Macquarie.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas, ranging from 51.7% in Wyong to 63% in Charlestown.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 7.9% in Swansea to 15.3% in Charlestown.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Cardiff-Warners Bay | 11.4 | 58.1 | 13,689 | 13.2 |
| Charlestown | 15.3 | 63.0 | 13,269 | 12.8 |
| Wyong | 8.0 | 51.7 | 10,980 | 10.6 |
| Belmont | 10.6 | 55.6 | 9,461 | 9.2 |
| Swansea | 7.9 | 56.3 | 6,103 | 5.9 |
| Pre-poll | 8.4 | 53.9 | 33,747 | 32.6 |
| Other votes | 9.0 | 56.0 | 16,118 | 15.6 |
Election results in Shortland at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Even though the redistribution helped Labor, they could be in trouble here. If not this time, the election after it may be won by the Libs for a single term.
Would probably be good for Shortland to go marginal; I can’t think of any spoils it’s ever gotten from the Labor Party in government.
This will probably flip in 2028. Labor should hold this year due to the marginand the fact the swing won’t be that large but if Labor remain govt in minority along with cost of living crisis expected to continue and the offshore wind issue should be enough to topple conroy here.
I agree that Shortland is trending to a marginal seat. The 2PP margin is lower than what it was at the lowpoint of 2013.
There’s gentrification and suburban sprawl in the northern end of the electorate and Lake Macquarie Council. More uni-educated, young professionals and first home buyers moving in as well as CALD people. On the flip side, the rest of the electorate is much older, more established and working-class. Such areas are trending Liberal.
the liberal party have preslected Emma King as their candidate here they have also chosen a candidate for Newcastle but lets face it they arent wining that
The Labor vote in the northern part of this seat will probably save Labor this time.But coastal gentrification will continue to plague them.
Sabina agreed though Labor will have a hard time holding if Labor wins in minority.
What’s the overall vibes here? Do we think the Liberals still have a chance of winning here or is the mood more towards Labor?
Labor retain this time around the swing new will only be small
Nitpicky thing for Ben: “Wyong Shire” should be Central Coast Council.
Thanks for that, fixed now in two places.
@James. I’m seeing A LOT of Liberal Party activity in Shortland at this election.
Conroy is out door knocking most days in what 10 years ago was considered a ‘super safe seat’ for Labor. Will the Libs pick it up in 2025?… most likely not. Although, if Emma King gets a 3-4% swing towards her I’d put money on Conroy going seat shopping again for 2028 – you’d hate to be a backbencher in the safest seat to the north of Shortland…
Conroy is realtively young so he wont be retiring anytime soon. Claydon however will be 64 at the next election and likely wont want to be spending the rest of her career in opposition should labor be on the way out.
anyway id say they will pick this up before they win hunter