ALP 15.5%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Giles, since 2013.
Geography
Outer northern suburbs of Melbourne. Scullin covers southern parts of the City of Whittlesea, including the suburbs of Mill Park, Thomastown, Lalor, South Morang and Epping, as well as the easternmost edge of the Hume council area.
Redistribution
Scullin expanded to the north and west, taking in the easternmost edge of Calwell and Wollert from McEwen. Scullin lost part of Bundoora to Jagajaga and the remainder of Mernda to McEwen. These changes slightly reduced the Labor margin from 15.6% to 15.5%.
History
Scullin has existed since the 1969 election, and in that time has always been held by the Labor Party, and specifically by the Jenkins family.
The seat was first won in 1969 by Harry Jenkins Sr, who had previously been a state Labor MP since 1961. Jenkins was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives upon the election of the Hawke government in 1983. He retired from Parliament in late 1985.
The 1986 Scullin by-election was won by Harry Jenkins Jr, son of the former MP. The younger Jenkins served as Deputy Speaker from 1993 to 2007, and he was elected Speaker in early 2008 after the election of the Rudd government. Jenkins was re-elected in 2010, stood down as Speaker in 2011, and retired in 2013.
Labor’s Andrew Giles won Scullin in 2013, and has been re-elected three times. Giles served as Minister for Immigration, Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs from 2022 to 2024, and as Minister for Skills and Training since July 2024.
Assessment
Scullin is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Giles | Labor | 42,147 | 46.3 | -14.2 | 46.3 |
| Virosh Perera | Liberal | 19,780 | 21.7 | -0.6 | 21.7 |
| Patchouli Paterson | Greens | 9,953 | 10.9 | +4.3 | 10.9 |
| Yassin Albarri | United Australia | 7,444 | 8.2 | +3.1 | 8.3 |
| Ursula Van Bree | One Nation | 5,907 | 6.5 | +6.5 | 6.5 |
| Eric Koelmeyer | Liberal Democrats | 3,422 | 3.8 | +3.8 | 3.7 |
| Cameron Rowe | Victorian Socialists | 2,469 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 2.7 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 5,494 | 5.7 | +0.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Giles | Labor | 59,761 | 65.6 | -6.1 | 65.5 |
| Virosh Perera | Liberal | 31,361 | 34.4 | +6.1 | 34.5 |
Polling places in Scullin have been divided into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 63.9% in the south-east to 70.3% in the south-west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.7% in the south-west to 12.5% in the south-east.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 12.2 | 67.3 | 13,489 | 15.1 |
| South-West | 9.7 | 70.3 | 12,818 | 14.4 |
| South-East | 12.5 | 63.9 | 10,261 | 11.5 |
| Pre-poll | 10.1 | 63.6 | 33,262 | 37.3 |
| Other votes | 11.1 | 65.2 | 19,372 | 21.7 |
Election results in Scullin at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
The Victorian Socialists candidate for Calwell, Omar Hassan, will now contest Scullin. The reasoning is due to ‘personal respect and solidarity’ for the Greens candidate in Calwell, Mohammed El-Masri, as well as living in Thomastown which is in Scullin.
Mohamed El-Masri*
I’m expecting Victorian Socialists and Greens primary vote to increase.
Victorian Socialists may get a slight boost, but without their fly in fleet of doorknockers like they had for the state election it mightn’t be so easy. Labor could easily be knocked down under 40 on primary but still win the seat comfortably
Victorian Socialists came third on primary votes in Thomastown at the 2022 Vic election (yes, even beating the Greens). It’s plausible that they could grab a slice of the very large, disaffected anti-establishment vote.
Hoping there will be a One Nation and Libertarian party candidate in Scullin to clean up this mess. All lefties will be last on my ballot for sure.
This wasn’t really mentioned but the Liberal candidate here Joel Drysdale has withdrawn his candidacy over Section 44 issues.
@James (irelxnd) Not like the Liberals had a chance in this seat anyway despite its outer suburban nature. In fact the Greens probably have a better chance to unseat Giles than the Liberals due to the protest vote away from Labor most likely going to VS and left candidates that will preference the Greens.
This isn’t really an outer suburban seat. The southern half of this seat is less than 14km from the Melbourne CBD. And it is very established. Very middle suburban. Not like a McEwen, Hawke, Lalor etc.
@Adam I would’ve thought suburbs like Lalor, Thomastown and Mill Park would be more outer suburbia than middle suburbia, not to mention the likes of Epping and Mernda in the northern extremities. It’s one of the reasons why there was a huge swing against Labor against the national trend, which was replicated in Calwell and McEwen, both of which are also outer suburban seats.
@Tommo9 – Agreed. The Liberals weren’t ever in the running for this seat. About VS though, I’d actually say they would more be in the running due to the profile of their candidate and a growing supporter base, and the Greens only recently choosing their candidate, but unseating a minister in a Labor heartland seat would be impossible IMO, unless the protest vote is much larger than expected.