Incumbent Senators
| Term due to expire 2025 | Term due to expire 2028 |
| Alex Antic (Liberal) | Leah Blyth (Liberal) 1 |
| David Fawcett (Liberal) | Don Farrell (Labor) |
| Karen Grogan (Labor) | Kerrynne Liddle (Liberal) |
| Sarah Hanson-Young (Greens) | Andrew McLachlan (Liberal) |
| Anne Ruston (Liberal) | Barbara Pocock (Greens) |
| Marielle Smith (Labor) | Penny Wong (Labor) |
1tLeah Blyth replaced Simon Birmingham on 6 February 2025 following Birmingham’s resignation.
South Australia was represented by five Labor senators and five Liberal senators from 1951 until the 1961 election, when the ALP managed to gain a 6-4 majority. A 5-5 balance was restored in 1967.
Former Liberal premier Steele Hall was elected in 1974 on the ticket of the Liberal Movement, taking a seat away from the Liberal Party. Hall was re-elected in 1975, while the Liberals regained their fifth seat at the expense of the ALP. Hall retired in 1977 and was replaced by Janine Haines of the Democrats. The 1977 election saw the Democrats lose the seat, with the Liberals winning six seats to the ALP’s four.
Haines was returned to the Senate for the Democrats in 1980, alongside five Liberals and four ALP senators. The 1983 double dissolution saw the ALP win a fifth seat off the Liberals. In 1984, the Democrats won a second seat while each major party held five seats. This pattern continued until 1993, when the Liberals won a sixth seat off the ALP, producing a 6-4-2 pattern which was maintained until the 2004 election.
The 2004 election saw the former Democrats seat (belonging to Meg Lees) lost to the ALP, producing a 6-5-1 split. In 2007, Natasha Stott Despoja’s seat was lost. The Liberal Party also lost one of their six seats. The ALP and Liberals each now hold five Senate seats, along with independent Senator Nick Xenophon and Sarah Hanson-Young of the Greens.
In 2010, the ALP lost one of their three seats to the Greens’ Penny Wright, producing an overall split of 5 Liberals, 4 Labor, 2 Greens and one independent.
2013 was a low-point for Labor, falling into third place behind the Nick Xenophon group. Sarah Hanson-Young, Nick Xenophon and the two Liberal senators were re-elected, but Labor only retained one of their two seats, with the final seat falling to Family First’s Bob Day.
The Liberal Party and the Greens both lost seats in 2016. The Greens lost one of their two seats, while the Liberal Party dropped from five seats to four. Both of these seats went to the Nick Xenophon Team, who won a second and third seat.
Family First senator Bob Day was forced to resign from the Senate in 2016 due to ineligibility. He was replaced by Lucy Gichuhi, who went on to join the Liberal Party.
Nick Xenophon resigned from the Senate in 2017 to unsuccessfully contest the 2018 South Australian state election, and was replaced by Rex Patrick. Fellow NXT senator Skye Kakoschke-Moore was forced to resign due to citizenship issues, and she was replaced by Tim Storer, who had stood in 2016 for the Nick Xenophon Team but sat in the Senate as an independent. Xenophon withdrew from politics in 2018 and his party was renamed “Centre Alliance”.
Storer retired in 2019, and Kakoschke-Moore stood unsuccessfully. The third NXT seat, along with the Family First seat, were absorbed by the Labor and Liberal parties, who each gained one seat. The Greens retained their one seat, while the two Centre Alliance senators were not up for election.
The two remaining Centre Alliance senators both lost their seats at the 2022 election. Rex Patrick left the party and ran his own independent ticket, while Stirling Griff ended up running as Nick Xenophon’s running mate on an independent ticket, but neither came close to winning. The Greens picked up a second seat, and the Liberal Party picked up the other former CA seat. This produced an overall split of 6 Liberal, 4 Labor and 2 Greens.
| Group | Votes | % | Swing | Quota |
| Liberal | 382,874 | 33.9 | -3.9 | 2.3749 |
| Labor | 364,104 | 32.3 | +1.9 | 2.2585 |
| Greens | 134,908 | 12.0 | +1.1 | 0.8368 |
| One Nation | 45,249 | 4.0 | -0.9 | 0.2807 |
| Nick Xenophon group | 33,713 | 3.0 | +0.4 | 0.2091 |
| United Australia | 34,167 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.2119 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 26,235 | 2.3 | +0.2 | 0.1627 |
| Liberal Democrats | 24,866 | 2.2 | +1.5 | 0.1542 |
| Rex Patrick Team | 23,425 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 0.1453 |
| Animal Justice | 19,843 | 1.8 | -0.1 | 0.1231 |
| Great Australian Party | 6,910 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 0.0429 |
| Others | 32,230 | 2.9 | 0.1999 | |
| Informal | 33,948 | 2.9 |
Preference flows
Four seats were won on primary votes: two for the Liberal Party and two for Labor.
We can now fast forward to the last nine candidates contesting those last two seats:
- Barbara Pocock (GRN) – 0.9313 quotas
- Kerrynne Liddle (LIB) – 0.4051
- Jennifer Game (ON) – 0.3281
- Trimann Gill (ALP) – 0.2896
- Michael Arbon (UAP) – 0.2403
- Nick Xenophon (IND) – 0.2359
- Tyler Green (LGC) – 0.2011
- Ian Markos (LDP) – 0.1768
- Rex Patrick (RPT) – 0.1654
Patrick preferences flowed most strongly to the Greens and Labor, followed by Xenophon and the Liberal:
- Pocock (GRN) – 0.9682
- Liddle (LIB) – 0.4298
- Game (ON) – 0.3434
- Gill (ALP) – 0.3261
- Xenophon (IND) – 0.2623
- Arbon (UAP) – 0.2488
- Green (LGC) – 0.2099
- Markos (LDP) – 0.1804
Over half of Liberal Democrats preferences flowed straight to the Liberal candidate, pushing her quite far ahead of the pack fro the final seat.
- Pocock (GRN) – 0.9796
- Liddle (LIB) – 0.5232
- Game (ON) – 0.3621
- Gill (ALP) – 0.3441
- Xenophon (IND) – 0.2656
- Arbon (UAP) – 0.2619
- Green (LGC) – 0.2160
Legalise Cannabis preferences flowed most strongly to the Greens, followed by Labor, One Nation and UAP. It was enough to push Pocock over a quota for the fifth seat:
- Pocock (GRN) – 1.0475
- Liddle (LIB) – 0.5416
- Game (ON) – 0.3935
- Gill (ALP) – 0.3808
- Arbon (UAP) – 0.2905
- Xenophon (IND) – 0.2735
Pocock’s small surplus mostly flowed to Labor:
- Liddle (LIB) – 0.5457
- Gill (ALP) – 0.4130
- Game (ON) – 0.3955
- Arbon (UAP) – 0.2927
- Xenophon (IND) – 0.2758
Xenophon preferences flowed most strongly to Labor and Liberal, pushing Labor further ahead of One Nation:
- Liddle (LIB) – 0.6280
- Gill (ALP) – 0.5182
- Game (ON) – 0.4261
- Arbon (UAP) – 0.3105
UAP preferences favoured One Nation very strongly, pushing Game ahead of Gill:
- Liddle (LIB) – 0.6681
- Game (ON) – 0.6064
- Gill (ALP) – 0.5566
Labor preferences mostly exhausted but favoured the Liberal over One Nation, giving Liddle the final seat:
- Liddle (LIB) – 0.8684
- Game (ON) – 0.6679
Liddle’s final margin over One Nation was 0.2 quotas.
- Labor
- Liberal
- Louise Ackland (Citizens Party)
- Christopher Brohier (Family First)
- Jennifer Game (One Nation)
- Tyler Green (Libertarian)
- Sarah Hanson-Young (Greens)
- Robert Lonie (People First)
- Rex Patrick (Jacqui Lambie Network)
- Jordan Shane (Australia’s Voice)
- Nicole Smeltz (Trumpet of Patriots)
- Dianah Walter (Independent)
Assessment
It seems most likely that South Australia will produce another split of three left and three right. There is a danger the Liberal Party could lose their third seat to a minor party of the right such as One Nation.
Anyone know when SA Greens senate preselection results will come through? Not predicting anything interesting though keeping an eye on it as Sarah Hanson-Young reportedly only won preselection last time by 53%-47%.
What’s the chance SA labor could gain a third seat?
Labor winning a third seat? That’s a possibility. In Vic and SA, Labor is holding up somewhat whilst its support has dropped elsewhere, according to polling.
The SA Liberal senate ticket is led by Alex Antic and religious conservatives have a huge stake in the SA Liberals. They’re not moderate at all.
Xenophon is hardly the force he once was. One Nation is in decline. I reckon the biggest threats to the big three parties will either be Legalise Cannabis or teal or regionalist independents who could split votes and send preferences in various directions.
@Votante I think it is likely that Labor could nab a third seat in the senate even though it’s rarely happened (if at all). The Liberals usually takes the 6th seat with ON and Palmer preferences but given that they’re on the nose in the state overall thanks to the right wing of the party demanding and commanding control, plus as you mentioned the general strength of Labor in SA compared to the other states, it’s very possible against the usual tides around the rest of the country that usually elects 3 Coalition, 2 Labor and 1 Green (or one minor party at the expense of the Coalition’s 3rd seat)
Rex Patrick has joined Jackie Lambie Network
BREAKING: Simon Birmingham to quit politics
It’s a shame he’s not just resigning from the Senate, he would be valuable in the House of Representatives especially in Adelaide where the Liberals need to regain seats they lost.
In 2004, the Liberals held four seats in Metropolitan Adelaide plus Mayo and Wakefield on the outskirts (which also include towns that aren’t part of Adelaide, note that Wakefield doesn’t exist anymore). Labor held only three (note that while they gained Adelaide from the Liberals in 2004 they lost Kingston). Nowadays, Labor holds six seats in Adelaide, while the Liberals hold just one (Sturt). The Centre Alliance holds the seat of Mayo which includes some suburbs on the outskirts of Adelaide plus the Adelaide Hills.
As Simon is a moderate, however, fellow SA Liberal Senator Alex Antic will be pleased to see that he is gone as Antic is one of the most right-wing politicians from the Coalition in the country.
Alex Antic reminds me a lot of a Ron De Santis type with a real “war on woke” focus.
The high profile moderates in the Liberal Party have really dropped like flies since 2018. Unlike Labor where left & right factions have dibs on certain seats or senate positions maintain a balance of power, the Liberals’ more open rank & file membership having more influence on preselections – while democratically it seems like a better system – has definitely gutted the party of its moderate wing in recent years.
Just think back to 2016-17, it was that team of Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Pyne and Birmingham that were the face of the party. How it’s changed since.
It will be interesting to see whether a moderate or a hardliner ends up running in what would have been Birmingham’s spot on the ticket.
@Trent a moderate should run instead of Antic too. He should join One Nation instead.
Neither Portal
There’ll be a pre-selection process, & hence the opportunity to choose the candidate of your choice.
@ Nether Portal
I hear you. However, there will be others including on tallyroom who say people like Alex Antic are the Liberal’s future and that Simon Birmingham is just “Labor Lite”. They argue that if Libs ignore wedge issues such as trans issues, abortion etc then working class voters will just vote with their economic interest. It is the same with the Moira Deeming issue where some people believe she is an Asset and can convert religious CALD voters in Greenvale and St Albans to Libs.
@np Alex antic is immensely popular. And has just got the numver 1 spot. So when is birmingham quitting? Hes not due for reelectuon until 2028 as he was just reelected in 2022. He will likely be replaced by another moderate as that’s how it usually goes.
@Phil I’m in Queensland, so I can’t vote in preselection for the Senate in South Australia.
@Nimalan that point is moot anyway especially in Adelaide. While ethnic people were overrepresented in the lockdown protests most obeyed the rules. And the groups who were overrepresented in those protests were groups who are mostly concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne. Adelaide has a large (East) Asian community (so do most major cities though) but that’s about it.
@Darth Vader Antic is not “immensely popular” at all.
Adding on to the point about ethnic groups and demographics in the lockdown protests, Adelaide just doesn’t have them like Sydney and Melbourne do. Similarly, the main CALD communities on the Gold Coast (where I live) and Chinese and Japanese people and they are often affluent (distinguish actual residents or migrants from tourists though since Japanese people love to visit the Gold Coast for holidays too), so the anti-lockdown message didn’t resonate well with the Gold Coast, even in CALD communities.
@ NP
I am not endorsing Alex Antic or lockdown protests. If you listen to Sky after Dark they will say Libs should forget about Boothby and Sturt and maybe Alex Antic can help Libs win Spence by focusing on culture wars.
If the future of the libs are the culture wars based upon sky after dark. They are in big trouble. This means they have given up serious politics. I hope not
@ np how do you think he got the number 1 senate spot? Obviously the lib branch voters in sa think so. The libs also have spots assigned for moderates and conservatives and given Birmingham is a moderate the moderates will likely claim his spot.
@Nimalan I know I’m stating why the point some make is moot.
@Mick Quinlivan it’s not, at least on the state and territory level in most of Australia.
@John he is not “immensely popular”. He’s first on the ticket, sure, but he’s not popular let alone immensely popular (immense would be used to describe very popular figures with broad appeal like Gladys Berejiklian and Mark McGowan). Michael Danby was unpopular in Melbourne Ports but he still won preselection.
@np yes but in the libs branches he obviously is the senate is a lot different as people vote mostly by party then by the individual member
@Trent DeSantis is at least a fairly serious person and his policies outside of “fuck woke” are pretty good. Besides, he runs the 3rd most powerful state in the country.
On the other hand, Antic is just a clown.
@Darth Vader, Birmingham said he’ll leave at the next election. His replacement will be decided by an SA Liberal preselection process.
@scart desantis has half a shot at being thext president too
Lyle Shelton has labelled Simon Birmingham an enemy within and a fifth column and criticized him for his support for Abortion and SSM. Lyle Shelton also criticized Peter Dutton for stopping a debate on Abortion within the Liberal party room.
Leah Blyth has been chosen as Briminghams replacement shes a conservative as opposed to Birmingham who was of the moderate faction
Interesting Territory/State hopper, lead Fusion Senate Candidate, Imelda Adamson Agars, ran as an independent in Lingiari (NT) last election.
As for SA, I have 2 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN and 1 Toss-up. With Nick X not running that’s 33K of votes that have to go somewhere and don’t see all of the 34K of UAP votes going to TOP. The question is whether they go back to the LIB to secure LIB 3 or whether it splatters around. I still see Rex Patrick (now running for JLN) or Jennifer Game as the outside chance to upset LIB 3.
If libs can manage 3 2 1 in a bad election they should get 3 in a good one