Incumbent Senators
| Term due to expire 2025 | Term due to expire 2028 |
| Alex Antic (Liberal) | Leah Blyth (Liberal) 1 |
| David Fawcett (Liberal) | Don Farrell (Labor) |
| Karen Grogan (Labor) | Kerrynne Liddle (Liberal) |
| Sarah Hanson-Young (Greens) | Andrew McLachlan (Liberal) |
| Anne Ruston (Liberal) | Barbara Pocock (Greens) |
| Marielle Smith (Labor) | Penny Wong (Labor) |
1tLeah Blyth replaced Simon Birmingham on 6 February 2025 following Birmingham’s resignation.
South Australia was represented by five Labor senators and five Liberal senators from 1951 until the 1961 election, when the ALP managed to gain a 6-4 majority. A 5-5 balance was restored in 1967.
Former Liberal premier Steele Hall was elected in 1974 on the ticket of the Liberal Movement, taking a seat away from the Liberal Party. Hall was re-elected in 1975, while the Liberals regained their fifth seat at the expense of the ALP. Hall retired in 1977 and was replaced by Janine Haines of the Democrats. The 1977 election saw the Democrats lose the seat, with the Liberals winning six seats to the ALP’s four.
Haines was returned to the Senate for the Democrats in 1980, alongside five Liberals and four ALP senators. The 1983 double dissolution saw the ALP win a fifth seat off the Liberals. In 1984, the Democrats won a second seat while each major party held five seats. This pattern continued until 1993, when the Liberals won a sixth seat off the ALP, producing a 6-4-2 pattern which was maintained until the 2004 election.
The 2004 election saw the former Democrats seat (belonging to Meg Lees) lost to the ALP, producing a 6-5-1 split. In 2007, Natasha Stott Despoja’s seat was lost. The Liberal Party also lost one of their six seats. The ALP and Liberals each now hold five Senate seats, along with independent Senator Nick Xenophon and Sarah Hanson-Young of the Greens.
In 2010, the ALP lost one of their three seats to the Greens’ Penny Wright, producing an overall split of 5 Liberals, 4 Labor, 2 Greens and one independent.
2013 was a low-point for Labor, falling into third place behind the Nick Xenophon group. Sarah Hanson-Young, Nick Xenophon and the two Liberal senators were re-elected, but Labor only retained one of their two seats, with the final seat falling to Family First’s Bob Day.
The Liberal Party and the Greens both lost seats in 2016. The Greens lost one of their two seats, while the Liberal Party dropped from five seats to four. Both of these seats went to the Nick Xenophon Team, who won a second and third seat.
Family First senator Bob Day was forced to resign from the Senate in 2016 due to ineligibility. He was replaced by Lucy Gichuhi, who went on to join the Liberal Party.
Nick Xenophon resigned from the Senate in 2017 to unsuccessfully contest the 2018 South Australian state election, and was replaced by Rex Patrick. Fellow NXT senator Skye Kakoschke-Moore was forced to resign due to citizenship issues, and she was replaced by Tim Storer, who had stood in 2016 for the Nick Xenophon Team but sat in the Senate as an independent. Xenophon withdrew from politics in 2018 and his party was renamed “Centre Alliance”.
Storer retired in 2019, and Kakoschke-Moore stood unsuccessfully. The third NXT seat, along with the Family First seat, were absorbed by the Labor and Liberal parties, who each gained one seat. The Greens retained their one seat, while the two Centre Alliance senators were not up for election.
The two remaining Centre Alliance senators both lost their seats at the 2022 election. Rex Patrick left the party and ran his own independent ticket, while Stirling Griff ended up running as Nick Xenophon’s running mate on an independent ticket, but neither came close to winning. The Greens picked up a second seat, and the Liberal Party picked up the other former CA seat. This produced an overall split of 6 Liberal, 4 Labor and 2 Greens.
| Group | Votes | % | Swing | Quota |
| Liberal | 382,874 | 33.9 | -3.9 | 2.3749 |
| Labor | 364,104 | 32.3 | +1.9 | 2.2585 |
| Greens | 134,908 | 12.0 | +1.1 | 0.8368 |
| One Nation | 45,249 | 4.0 | -0.9 | 0.2807 |
| Nick Xenophon group | 33,713 | 3.0 | +0.4 | 0.2091 |
| United Australia | 34,167 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.2119 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 26,235 | 2.3 | +0.2 | 0.1627 |
| Liberal Democrats | 24,866 | 2.2 | +1.5 | 0.1542 |
| Rex Patrick Team | 23,425 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 0.1453 |
| Animal Justice | 19,843 | 1.8 | -0.1 | 0.1231 |
| Great Australian Party | 6,910 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 0.0429 |
| Others | 32,230 | 2.9 | 0.1999 | |
| Informal | 33,948 | 2.9 |
Preference flows
Four seats were won on primary votes: two for the Liberal Party and two for Labor.
We can now fast forward to the last nine candidates contesting those last two seats:
- Barbara Pocock (GRN) – 0.9313 quotas
- Kerrynne Liddle (LIB) – 0.4051
- Jennifer Game (ON) – 0.3281
- Trimann Gill (ALP) – 0.2896
- Michael Arbon (UAP) – 0.2403
- Nick Xenophon (IND) – 0.2359
- Tyler Green (LGC) – 0.2011
- Ian Markos (LDP) – 0.1768
- Rex Patrick (RPT) – 0.1654
Patrick preferences flowed most strongly to the Greens and Labor, followed by Xenophon and the Liberal:
- Pocock (GRN) – 0.9682
- Liddle (LIB) – 0.4298
- Game (ON) – 0.3434
- Gill (ALP) – 0.3261
- Xenophon (IND) – 0.2623
- Arbon (UAP) – 0.2488
- Green (LGC) – 0.2099
- Markos (LDP) – 0.1804
Over half of Liberal Democrats preferences flowed straight to the Liberal candidate, pushing her quite far ahead of the pack fro the final seat.
- Pocock (GRN) – 0.9796
- Liddle (LIB) – 0.5232
- Game (ON) – 0.3621
- Gill (ALP) – 0.3441
- Xenophon (IND) – 0.2656
- Arbon (UAP) – 0.2619
- Green (LGC) – 0.2160
Legalise Cannabis preferences flowed most strongly to the Greens, followed by Labor, One Nation and UAP. It was enough to push Pocock over a quota for the fifth seat:
- Pocock (GRN) – 1.0475
- Liddle (LIB) – 0.5416
- Game (ON) – 0.3935
- Gill (ALP) – 0.3808
- Arbon (UAP) – 0.2905
- Xenophon (IND) – 0.2735
Pocock’s small surplus mostly flowed to Labor:
- Liddle (LIB) – 0.5457
- Gill (ALP) – 0.4130
- Game (ON) – 0.3955
- Arbon (UAP) – 0.2927
- Xenophon (IND) – 0.2758
Xenophon preferences flowed most strongly to Labor and Liberal, pushing Labor further ahead of One Nation:
- Liddle (LIB) – 0.6280
- Gill (ALP) – 0.5182
- Game (ON) – 0.4261
- Arbon (UAP) – 0.3105
UAP preferences favoured One Nation very strongly, pushing Game ahead of Gill:
- Liddle (LIB) – 0.6681
- Game (ON) – 0.6064
- Gill (ALP) – 0.5566
Labor preferences mostly exhausted but favoured the Liberal over One Nation, giving Liddle the final seat:
- Liddle (LIB) – 0.8684
- Game (ON) – 0.6679
Liddle’s final margin over One Nation was 0.2 quotas.
- A – Tyler Green (Libertarian)
- B – Imelda Adamson Agars (Fusion)
- C – Liberal
- D – Labor
- Marielle Smith
- Karen Grogan
- Charlotte Walker
- E – Frankie Bray (Animal Justice)
- F – Rex Patrick (Jacqui Lambie Network)
- G – Nicole Smeltz (Trumpet of Patriots)
- H – Monique Crossling (Nationals)
- I – Jordan Shane (Australia’s Voice)
- J – Rob Lonie (People First)
- K – Jessica Nies (Legalise Cannabis Party)
- L – Louise Ackland (Citizens Party)
- M – Christopher Brohier (Family First)
- N – Sarah Hanson-Young (Greens)
- O – Madeleine Wearne (Sustainable Australia)
- P – Jennifer Game (One Nation)
- Ungrouped
-
- Kosta Hadjimarkou (Independent)
- Janette Francis (Independent)
-
Assessment
It seems most likely that South Australia will produce another split of three left and three right. There is a danger the Liberal Party could lose their third seat to a minor party of the right such as One Nation.
@ Nether Portal
See my comments Above the issue is that Sky After Dark will always argue for people like Antic to fight from within than leave.
or closer to home – a Cory Bernardi.
@Nether Poral because Alex Antic is high profile, young, capable, and one of the best performers in the Libs
@Nimalan, I understand that but is one news channel that isn’t that popular really that influential that someone who is out of touch, unpopular and not really useful even as a backbencher.
@Redistributed, true, either analogy works (Rennick is more recent).
@The Sheriff, how is he “capable” or “one of the best performers”? He has voted against Coalition legislation if he saw it as too progressive and proposed very conservative legislation. Also he’s 50 or 51, that’s not “young”.
For some Liberals, the true enemy is within – they hate the moderates more than they do Labor – notice how frequently they’re derided by them as “the left, the wets, the bedwetters”. They care little for liberalism and want populist-conservative nationalism in the vein of Trump, Farage and Orban.
Antic may bolt if the situation becomes dire and he receives pushback from the party. Otherwise, he will stick around to enjoy the thousands of votes he will get just because. He would have a hard time running for a House seat. Depends on whether he wants to do something or be a squeaky wheel.
I decided to find which booths were the largest polling day and pre-poll in each state. Here is what I got:
(Note: I’ve only counted the largest from a singular electorate rather than including all votes cast there. It was a bit too confusing.)
ACT:
Polling Day: Parkes (Canberra) – 2770
Pre-Poll: Tuggeranong PPVC (Bean) – 20388
NSW:
Polling Day: Castle Hill North (Mitchell) – 2695
Pre-Poll: Baulkham Hills PPVC (Mitchell) – 20142
NT:
Polling Day: Parap (Solomon) – 1623
Pre-Poll: Eaton PPVC (Solomon) – 14585
QLD:
Polling Day: Runaway Bay (Fadden) – 2930
Pre-Poll: Coorparoo PPVC (Griffith) – 22412 *largest in the country*
SA:
Polling Day: West Lakes Shore (Hindmarsh) – 2623
Pre-Poll: Modbury PPVC (Makin) – 19762
TAS:
Polling Day: Kingston (Franklin) – 2449
Pre-Poll: Launceston PPVC (Bass) – 14568
VIC:
Polling Day: Pakenham Shearwater (La Trobe) – 2981 *largest in the country*
Pre-Poll: Caroline Springs PPVC (Gorton) – 20988
WA:
Polling Day: Mount Hawthorn (Perth) – 2498
Pre-Poll: Bunbury PPVC (Forrest) – 16633
@James not sure if this is the right page for that but wow 22,412 votes is giant for a polling place.
@Sherriff No Antic is quite possibly the worst performer in the Libs.
In addition to Farage, Trump and Orban that @WL mentioned. I would also include the Law and Justice Party in Poland and Meloni in Italy as comparisons to Antic.
The only lower house seat that Antic could win is Barker which is Ultra Right.
@Nimalan what about LePen in France? LePen and Meloni seem to have been less offensive lately for whatever reason. Meloni to her credit has backed Ukraine. LePen seems to be willing to keep the government going in Paris these days. Possibly due to the fact that her relative position in the French Assembly probably would deteriorate at an election. I saw a YouTube video yesterday that posited the idea that Orbán may be in a position to lose the next election. As far as Farage while Labour has until at least 2029 in government I am not sure the Tory party in the UK will make it that long. (In current form at least…)
Antic is like a cockroach. He survives just about everything and anything despite being a complete wrecker and a sucker for the things that *totally* matter to the cost of living like girl’s sports or getting a hard on for Welcome to Country.
Oh and also he mimicked Trump and his ‘fake news’ rhetoric when he saw the media during the leadership vote. I’d suggest if anyone wants to see that can visit the Decimated episode of Four Corners recently.
@Sherriff probably, alongside Matt Canavan (granted he’s in the Nationals).
@Nimalan there are seats he could theoretically win which are rural based on brand only but they’d be much less safe. Barker would be one example, but there would be others just not in South Australia.
Even then though, I highly doubt the people of Barker would want him as their MP. People in rural seats might be more socially conservative than in urban seats but this doesn’t mean culture wars are the talk of the town.
I grew up in Lyne and not once did I remember anyone having a conversation that went like “Hey, did you hear the latest Sky News after 6:00pm?” (though people did indeed talk about lowering immigration, and yes there was discrimination but it was limited to a few individuals or it was students who didn’t understand it and then got in trouble for it). Indeed most rural seats voted Yes to same-sex marriage.
In short put it this way: Marjorie Taylor-Greene (more extreme than Alex Antić but American) holds a very white rural and exurban seat in Georgia with a Cook PVI of R+19 yet only won with 64.4% of the vote with swings against her every time and that’s in America with two candidates, whereas Trump won with 68.1% in that same seat (Georgia’s 14th congressional district).
@ Craig
I am not being critical of Le Pen, Orban, Geert Wilders, Meloni, Danish Peoples Party etc there all National Conservatives like One Nation. I think those sort of politics will get less sucess in Australia. it is important to remember that countries like Netherlands, Denmark etc are Nation states where the state’s identity and main ethnicity are interlinked that is is not the case in Australia. It is also important to remember that Australia is a new world country and i feel that immigration works better in the new world. In the US which is new world country i think the fact it is more regionalised and polarised led to Trump. Th
@Craig, LePen is another good example of a populist leader. Bolsonaro in Brazil would be another.
As for Orbán, it is looking very likely he will lose the next Hungarian election (which will be in April next year) to the TISZA Party. It was founded in 2020 and is a centre-right and pro-European party (was confused by the red colour though, however there is another centre-right party MMM with blue as their colour).
Either way, if Orbán loses it could be a sign to Antić that he isn’t needed in politics.
@Nether Portal
In answer to your question as to why Antic is top of the senate ticket – it would be because he convinced the dozen members of the Liberal party who decide this that he is high profile, young, capable, and one of the best performers in the Libs
and 50 would seem young to most of those guys
@ Nether Portal
I feel Barker is more conservative than Lyne and certainly more than Cowper, Wannon or Indi. For this reason i dont think a centrist indepedent can win Barker, Gippsland or Maranoa. I think if he ran in Grey he could lose to a centrist indepedent as there is a decent base of Labor voters and tactical voting by Labor voters could assist.
Even though Antic is a Senator I am not convinced the national Liberal party would actually want him to run in a House seat. Even in a “safe” seat he probably would bring unnecessary distraction. Given the results of this past election, especially with Labor on 94 seats, it would be insane for the Liberals to push someone like Antic. If the Liberals crash and burn at next year’s state elections I can only see a push away from that rhetoric. Given that Trump has made that behaviour toxic in most mainstream countries it will only get worse. I am not even sure Jacinda Price is going to get a lot of traction going forward and she is a whole cubit milder than Antic.
50 is middle age in life but still fairly young in politics. It was once rare to stand for office before you were 40 as you tended to need a fair amount of life experience to engender credibility from the voters although that is changing some nowadays.
As far as populists there seems to be two camps, people that want to actually get something done and will adjust their strategy to accommodate practicalities and those that just want to be a squeaky wheel. I am not quite sure where Antic fits although he seems to think he wants to be the former.
@Nimalan I do agree it’s more conservative than Lyne and definitely more so than Cowper but I still don’t think culture wars are a common topic there. Lyne is 6.7% Indigenous however and even though the Nationals do well among them there I think this would be a factor as to why it’s less so (plus it’s more urban) whereas Barker is only 3.0% Indigenous.
A centrist independent probably couldn’t win Lyne anymore either to be fair, since Jeremy Miller campaigned hard yet was basically just a spoiler candidate (him gaining votes stopped Comboyne and Lyne from being in the 80%+ booths again though 75-76% is still pretty conservative). We’re still waiting for preference flows to be released though.
@ NP
What about Rob Oakshott was a centrist independent like Tony Windsor in New England?
@Nimalan after he supported Labor I think that stains the image of independents too much same as in New England.