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Anyone know when SA Greens senate preselection results will come through? Not predicting anything interesting though keeping an eye on it as Sarah Hanson-Young reportedly only won preselection last time by 53%-47%.
What’s the chance SA labor could gain a third seat?
Labor winning a third seat? That’s a possibility. In Vic and SA, Labor is holding up somewhat whilst its support has dropped elsewhere, according to polling.
The SA Liberal senate ticket is led by Alex Antic and religious conservatives have a huge stake in the SA Liberals. They’re not moderate at all.
Xenophon is hardly the force he once was. One Nation is in decline. I reckon the biggest threats to the big three parties will either be Legalise Cannabis or teal or regionalist independents who could split votes and send preferences in various directions.
@Votante I think it is likely that Labor could nab a third seat in the senate even though it’s rarely happened (if at all). The Liberals usually takes the 6th seat with ON and Palmer preferences but given that they’re on the nose in the state overall thanks to the right wing of the party demanding and commanding control, plus as you mentioned the general strength of Labor in SA compared to the other states, it’s very possible against the usual tides around the rest of the country that usually elects 3 Coalition, 2 Labor and 1 Green (or one minor party at the expense of the Coalition’s 3rd seat)
Rex Patrick has joined Jackie Lambie Network
BREAKING: Simon Birmingham to quit politics
It’s a shame he’s not just resigning from the Senate, he would be valuable in the House of Representatives especially in Adelaide where the Liberals need to regain seats they lost.
In 2004, the Liberals held four seats in Metropolitan Adelaide plus Mayo and Wakefield on the outskirts (which also include towns that aren’t part of Adelaide, note that Wakefield doesn’t exist anymore). Labor held only three (note that while they gained Adelaide from the Liberals in 2004 they lost Kingston). Nowadays, Labor holds six seats in Adelaide, while the Liberals hold just one (Sturt). The Centre Alliance holds the seat of Mayo which includes some suburbs on the outskirts of Adelaide plus the Adelaide Hills.
As Simon is a moderate, however, fellow SA Liberal Senator Alex Antic will be pleased to see that he is gone as Antic is one of the most right-wing politicians from the Coalition in the country.
Alex Antic reminds me a lot of a Ron De Santis type with a real “war on woke” focus.
The high profile moderates in the Liberal Party have really dropped like flies since 2018. Unlike Labor where left & right factions have dibs on certain seats or senate positions maintain a balance of power, the Liberals’ more open rank & file membership having more influence on preselections – while democratically it seems like a better system – has definitely gutted the party of its moderate wing in recent years.
Just think back to 2016-17, it was that team of Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Pyne and Birmingham that were the face of the party. How it’s changed since.
It will be interesting to see whether a moderate or a hardliner ends up running in what would have been Birmingham’s spot on the ticket.
@Trent a moderate should run instead of Antic too. He should join One Nation instead.
Neither Portal
There’ll be a pre-selection process, & hence the opportunity to choose the candidate of your choice.
@ Nether Portal
I hear you. However, there will be others including on tallyroom who say people like Alex Antic are the Liberal’s future and that Simon Birmingham is just “Labor Lite”. They argue that if Libs ignore wedge issues such as trans issues, abortion etc then working class voters will just vote with their economic interest. It is the same with the Moira Deeming issue where some people believe she is an Asset and can convert religious CALD voters in Greenvale and St Albans to Libs.