GRN 2.6% vs LNP
Incumbent MP
Elizabeth Watson-Brown, since 2022.
Geography
Ryan covers the western suburbs of Brisbane. The seat covers the north side of the Brisbane river from Auchenflower through Toowong, Indooroopilly, Chapel Hill and Kenmore. It also covers suburbs further north including The Gap and Ferny Grove.
History
Ryan was first created in 1949. The seat was first won by Nigel Drury in 1949 for the Liberal Party. Drury held the seat until 1975, mainly serving as a backbencher. He was succeeded by John Moore in 1975. Moore served as a minister in Malcolm Fraser’s final term and served in the shadow cabinet during the Hawke/Keating governments.
Moore served as Minister for Industry, Science and Tourism in John Howard’s first government and become Minister for Defence after the 1998 election. He lost the portfolio in a reshuffle in December 2000 and proceeded to resign from Parliament early in 2001.
A swing of 9.7% gave the normally safe Liberal seat to Labor candidate Leonie Short by 255 votes. Liberal candidate Michael Johnson won back the seat at the 2001 general election. Johnson was reelected in 2004 and 2007. A 6.6% swing to the ALP in 2007 made the seat marginal, and the ensuing redistribution cut the margin further.
Michael Johnson was expelled from the Liberal National Party in May 2010 due to controversies surrounding his role as Chair of the Australia-China Business Forum.
The LNP preselected Brisbane city councillor Jane Prentice in 2010. Prentice won the seat comfortably. Michael Johnson ran as an independent, and came fourth with 8.5% of the vote. Prentice won two more terms in 2013 and 2016.
Prentice lost LNP preselection in 2019 to Brisbane City councillor Julian Simmonds, and he went on to win the seat with relative ease.
Simmonds lost his seat in 2022 to Greens candidate Elizabeth Watson-Brown. The LNP and Labor primary votes both dropped, with the Greens primary vote increasing to push Watson-Brown into second place on primary votes, and Labor preferences gave her a majority of votes after preferences.
- Nicole De Lapp (People First)
- Robbie Elsom (One Nation)
- Maggie Forrest (Liberal National)
- Donna Gallehawk (Family First)
- Rebecca Hack (Labor)
- Lachlan McCall (Trumpet of Patriots)
- Elizabeth Watson-Brown (Greens)
Assessment
This seat is a complex race to watch. For Watson-Brown to win re-election, she not only needs to win the preferential count but she also needs to stay ahead of Labor.
Lower house Greens MPs usually increase their support with the benefit of incumbency, and that would be particularly helpful in seeing off the Labor threat.
The LNP’s chances of regaining the seat partly depend on the Coalition’s ability to rebuild its support amongst inner-city voters. They do not appear to have made much progress on that front yet, which should help Watson-Brown.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Julian Simmonds | Liberal National | 38,239 | 38.5 | -10.1 |
| Elizabeth Watson-Brown | Greens | 30,003 | 30.2 | +9.9 |
| Peter Cossar | Labor | 22,146 | 22.3 | -2.1 |
| Damian Coory | Liberal Democrats | 2,582 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Joel Love | One Nation | 2,237 | 2.3 | +0.1 |
| Kathryn Pollard | United Australia | 2,062 | 2.1 | +0.6 |
| Jina Lipman | Animal Justice | 1,088 | 1.1 | -0.8 |
| Janine Rees | Labor | 606 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Axel Dancoisne | Federation Party | 353 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Informal | 3,140 | 3.1 | +0.7 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Elizabeth Watson-Brown | Greens | 52,286 | 52.6 |
| Julian Simmonds | Liberal National | 47,030 | 47.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Cossar | Labor | 52,062 | 52.4 | +8.5 |
| Julian Simmonds | Liberal National | 47,254 | 47.6 | -8.5 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies at the eastern end of the electorate, and these areas have been split into three areas. From north to south, these are Enoggera, The Gap and Indooroopilly. The remainder of the booths, most of which lie near the Brisbane River, have been grouped as “West”.
There are two different thresholds that decide who wins Ryan: firstly, who is leading in the race between Labor and the Greens? And then, after preferences, does the LNP have a majority against the main progressive opponent?
On a two-candidate-preferred basis, the Greens won a majority in three out of four areas, ranging from 56% in Enoggera to 57.2% in the Gap. The LNP won 52.9% in the west. The Greens also won 52.3% of the pre-poll votes and the LNP won 51.7% of the other vote.
On a primary vote basis, the Greens outpolled Labor in three out of four areas, with the Greens primary vote peaking at 36% in Indooroopilly. Labor polled 28% in Enoggera, outpolling the Greens in that area.
Generally the Labor vote was highest at the northern end of the seat, the Greens vote highest in the eastern end of the seat, and the LNP vote highest in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Indooroopilly | 36.3 | 19.5 | 56.2 | 18,433 | 18.6 |
| The Gap | 34.1 | 22.9 | 57.2 | 11,435 | 11.5 |
| Enoggera | 26.9 | 28.4 | 56.0 | 8,569 | 8.6 |
| West | 28.6 | 18.1 | 47.1 | 5,271 | 5.3 |
| Pre-poll | 29.5 | 23.0 | 52.3 | 30,812 | 31.0 |
| Other votes | 26.3 | 22.0 | 48.3 | 24,796 | 25.0 |
Election results in Ryan at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs LNP), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, the Greens and Labor.
A possible scenario is that the Greens and LNP primary votes fall but Labor’s rises, but not to the extent Labor will make the 2CP.
There are teal-ish and moderate liberal demographics. They have a disliking of Dutton, moreso than of Morrison. It might make them swing to Labor as they find the Greens too left-wing for their liking or to vote tactically to help Labor.
The Greens suffered swings at various elections in the inner city, notably QLD and ACT. If this trend continues, the Green vote in the eastern and northern parts would be most affected, as seen at the state election. Outside of UQ and St Lucia, a cohort of Greens voters are not rusted-on voters nor economically left-wing or socialist. They may be open to switching their votes.
I seem to recall some discussion on this site a few years ago where the hypothesis was put forward that former Liberal voters here switched to the Greens instead of Labor because Labor is perceived as the party of the working class.
I think @Nicholas that from a social class perspective the Greens, or at least Greens voters, have more in common with the Libs than Labor. Now as Labor moves inexorably towards being a party of the professional (particularly public service) class (and the Libs slowly move the other way) that is becoming less true.
I don’t think most of the professional class hold a lot of love for Dutton.
@Mostly Labor. Agreed, 100%, many Greens voters (namely the more affluent ones) overlap with the Liberals in terms of not being working-class or genuinely espousing working-class interests. Labor is the only balanced major option for working-class people who are wage earners – both the Greens and Libs are relatively more destructive.
Most of the professional class doesn’t love Dutton, they preferred a Turnbull type.
The political realignment of the working class to right-wing populists (which the Liberals are trying to rebrand as to win them over) and Labor being perceived as the party of so-called inner city “elites” has reversed that a bit.
In the past I think the core demographic of Greens voters crossed over more with traditional “small l” liberals in terms of social class than they did with Labor. This included up to (and including) 2016. I think from 2019 that has shifted pretty significantly.
Also there are different cohorts of Greens voters; one is the socially progressive but often quite affluent, highly educated professional class. But there is also the more socialist, left-wing student activist cohort of Greens voters too.
Different seats I think have a different balance of them. Whereas Brisbane, Ryan & Higgins certainly had the former, Wills certainly has more of the latter, while Macnamara, Melbourne & Cooper I think have a more balanced combination of both.
I think the rise of the Teals has pushed the Greens more to the latter, both in how they campaign and also where they focus resources. It’s easy to forget that Greens were treating Kooyong as a winnable seat in 2019 (and even 2022 before Monique Ryan seized the momentum). I
I think that is now the “soft” Green vote that would prefer teals and is happy to vote for the right Labor candidate (e.g. a strong incumbent or one who is able to brand themselves well) – and I don’t think that’s different in the post gentrification Melbourne and Sydney suburbs (which have a bit more student fervour and renter class left wing vote). Conversely the effect of apartments, renters and stay at home millennials shouldn’t be overlooked in the teal seats (i.e. actual left wing voters).
I will note as well that Bob Brown has featured much more in Greens campaigns than any other election I can remember since he stepped down as leader – presumably to rebuke the “Greens are no longer the party of Bob Brown” refrain. I don’t think any of the Greens candidates in winnable lower house seats are particularly off-putting to moderates (except maybe Remah Naji in Moreton – seems very strongly influenced by Sriranganathan and does a lot of long social media posts criticising the party she’s running for)
re redistribution im wanting to move ryan to the brisbane river and then eastwards into Brisbane