Ryan – Australia 2025

Interesting to look at Labor’s historical 2PP in this seat compared with the rest of QLD and the narrowing of the gap. In the 80s Labor generally performed around 8 points worse in Ryan than state-wide, gradually narrowing to around four points worse in 2007, then only 1-2 points worse after the 2007 redistribution, before jumping to slightly Labor-leaning in 2019, and then running a full 6 points ahead of Labor’s state-wide 2PP in 2022. The seat’s become a lot more left-leaning, and if that roughly continues, I don’t think it will revert to being a secure blue-ribbon LNP seat if/when the LNP win it back or that the LNP will be able to win it back as easily as the raw numbers might suggest.

I am under the impression that this is a green/blue seat and a teal candidate like the ones in Sydney and Melbourne could’ve won this in 2022. It was pretty much a blue-ribbon Liberal heartland seat since 1949. It’s relatively wealthy and well-educated, but with a growing Green vote at recent elections.

Labor was never strong in this seat, except for at the 2001 by-election when they won it. Labor has a better chance of winning Brisbane in 2025 where the gap between Labor and Greens was narrower in 2022.

If you follow Evan Scrimshaw (but he’s not the only exponent) you’ll hear about the “Global F***ing Realignment” as he calls it. More politely, it’s education polarisation as the right-wing party focuses on being socially conservative over economically conservative. If you went to uni, chances are you’re a social liberal.

Ryan has a lot of university-educated people, and not just because they’re current UQ students or staff (though that helps). And Ryan is definitely the teal-est of the three inner Brisbane seats. If 2025 is anything like Maiwar 2020, you’ll see Watson-Brown pick up a very healthy primary vote swing drawing from both majors on net.

I suppose we’ll have plenty of data going in to 2025 to talk about: Council, then State, then Federal, all about 7 months apart.

@ Greens Political Party Supporter – bit off topic but have you chosen your handle ironically? The only people I’ve ever known to really say”Greens Political Party” are Labor members.

i actually think Labor is very unlikely to ever win Brisbane or Ryan again 2022 was their best chance and they missed it. Griffith is another matter which i will come back to below and maybe the only one that can be won back from the Greens. When Ryan was last won in 2001 by-election it had a small part of very working class territory (Oxley, Darra). Today, the least well off part of Ryan is Ferny Grove, Keppera etc. In both, Ryan and Brisbane i think there will be a stubborn Liberal vote whereas the Labor vote is perhaps the softest of all 3. In Griffith there is a chance that Labor could win if the Liberal vote falls to third place and preferences elect Labor. The area around Bulimba/Hawthorne is the most affluent part of Griffith but the Liberal vote is not as strong as Ascot, Hamilton, Fig Tree Pocket or Upper Brookfield.

Yeah that’s a good point Nimalan.

There’s two paths for a Greens victory – one is to beat the Coalition on 2CP, the other is to beat Labor on 2CP. The latter is much harder because of preferences and remains a possibility in Griffith in a very bad year for the Liberals, but seems quite unlikely in Ryan.

I think Labor can still win in Brisbane, mostly because the 3CP vote shares for each party are closer. With only a few points between Labor and the Greens for 3rd and 2nd, you could imagine the tide going out on the Greens enough to flip the seat. But I think the modern Labor party is vulnerable to a bit of a centre-squeeze here.

Agree AlexJ
Labor can still win Brisbane for now because as you mentioned the primary votes for Labor/Greens are currently close. I personally dont think the Libs will be knocked out of the 2CP in Brisbane although its not as far fetched as Ryan Although, i think if Labor is thinking strategically long-term about seats they can entrench themselves then if i was Labor i would not target Brisbane. Often when a Green wins a seat from the Coalition they consolidate the progressive vote examples include Maiwar, Prahran and Ballina so while initially the Greens/Labor are close on primaries the gap increases over time. Other thing is that demographic trends are not favorable for Labor longer term increased apartments bringing more younger people will see Greens/AJP etc grow their vote over time. There just isnt the typical Labor base of unionized blue collar workers, indigenous people, working class ethnic communities for Labor to have a solid foundation. In 2018 Labor was interested in taking Prahran from the Greens and the collapse of the Libs benefited both Greens/Labor and there was a battle for second place by 2022 however, despite a strong result for Labor statewide, the Gap between ALP/Greens widened significantly. I think Labor may then have one chance in 2025 but if not there will likely emerge a distant third on primaries Even if they win, it maybe like Richmond under Justine Elliot or Griffith under Terri Butler so maybe a constant battle to hold on.

It’s good to see someone else talking about education. If anyone’s interested in further reading I’d highly recommend Piketty’s ‘Brahmin Left vs Merchant Right: Rising Inequality & the Changing Structure of Political Conflict’ from 2018.

I don’t see Ryan going back to the LNP unless Watson-Brown really screws up publicly. Maybe when she retires, especially if it’s in a cycle where the LNP tide is rising nationwide.
That said, the LNP seem determined to drive away any educated city voters they had, so unless they do a big u-turn even a retirement isn’t likely to do it for them.

The Greens ground game is also too strong. The nexus of elections in the 24/25 and 28 election cycles means they’ll be running strong field campaigns all across their seats for a long time. From what I’ve heard they’ve already got doorknocking campaigns going in Paddington, Walter Taylor, and Pullenvale, and presumably, those will just roll straight into State (Cooper, Maiwar, and Moggill), and then into the Ryan re-elect.

Brisbane’s riskier, because the Greens are less entrenched than in Ryan or Griffith (no seats at other levels of government means less community connections and a smaller volunteer base), but there’s probably more opportunity for left vote consolidation than there is in Ryan.

this will become safer for the left after the next election as it will take in labor voting booths from dickson and brisbane while shedding its lnp booths in the south to blair.

The realignment is obviously happening, although I think it is as much about leftish parties shifting towards a graduate class at the expense of their working class base (for many reasons). I have often believed if the coalition split the Nats, being more socially conservative but more open to economic intervention, would pose a real threat to Labor in some of the more working class outer suburban seats. Would the opposite also be true, that a split of the coalition would make the Liberals, who would be more Tealish, more competitive here and Brisbane?

In QLD/TAS, i think the realignment is much more likely to occur than in other states. This is due them being less centralized states than the rest of the nations this makes it more similar to US states where population spread allows for populism to flourish. Other point is Brisbane is a more Anglo city especially the outer rim such as Longman and Brisbane lacks the manufacturing base of cities such as Melbourne so much less unionized and class identity is not as strong. In Melbourne/Sydney the Labor heartlands are much more ethnically diverse and class identity is strong so it is hard for the Nats/Libs to win them. The real threat to Labor is a Dai Le style independent but that requires the right circumstances to exist. A lot of the growth areas in Melbourne for example are among the most diverse and often attract highly educated immigrants usually South Asian.

for example *Point Cook

LNP vs Greens contest here.

Will be tough for Libby, not working on Wednesdays!

Elected office is a sacrifice. It is not a job. Service above self.

Btw, the subsequent redistribution is surely not going to be radical in QLD, just try & fix Wright. The state based redistribution maybe should be more radical.

@bja with the most likely addition of an additional seat in 2025 it will be a bit more radical then that. Not mention the excess quaot on the gold and sunshine coasts

Margaret Forrest, a commercial and criminal law barrister, has been preselected as the Liberal National Party candidate for the seat of Ryan it was reported in the Australian.

At least this is one seat where they are not pre-selecting the same previous MP, unlike the Liberal electors in Goldstein and Higgins. Which I will never understand.

@John

I find it hard to imagine the redistribution committee moving the Moggill area into Blair. The transfer of the Karana Downs area was okay – there are two bridges across the Brisbane River and both sides of the river share a similar character. I believe this area was formerly part of Ipswich council. Around Moggill, there is only a ferry, and the river is a very significant divide. Moggill doesn’t have much in common with the suburbs on the Ipswich line.

I think they’ll need more than just a woman candidate to try and unseat Elizabeth Watson-Brown who will get a sophomore surge whilst she’s still there and the electorate is getting more progressive compared to the rest of Queensland. If the LNP thinks pre-selecting women candidates alone is going to solve their problems then they’re still in the wilderness.

Labor’s got no chance in this seat come 2025 given it’s either affluent new/old money (skews LNP) or Brisbane River/inner city progressive (skew Green). They need to try and wrestle back Brisbane instead given the Greens won on a luck of the draw last time round.

The previous LNP MHR wasJane Prentice.
She held Ryan with on Primaries with a .45% Swing to her in 2016, then she was forced out by Simmonds.
Simmonds dropped 3.5% in 2019, another 10.11% in 2022 and lost the seat held by the Liberals at ever G.E. since creation in 1949.
2022 saw a huge protest vote against Liberal male MHR’s, so it makes sense to run a presentable professional female candidate here at bthe next Election.

I forseea deal between Labor and liberals given Labor wants to hold off the greens and retake certain divisions. While referencing the greens in govt harms Labor chances of forming majority govt they will almost certainly lose enough seats to the coalition they won’t get it anyway so a preference deal could benefit both sides.i think the libs can retake Ryan and Brisbane given they stand to gain from the honeymoon of the soonto be elected qld lnp

@daniel because unlike the Labor party who installs union mates and jobs for the boys and those who know the right people the liberal party choose their representative through the members not just whoever gets tapped on the shoulder for a cushy job

@John If history’s anything to go by the LNP is just as guilty in doing that. Who could forget Warren Mundine’s ill-fated attempt at trying to get Gilmore which led to Labor taking the seat for the first time in 20+ years?

Ryan won’t be a Labor seat even if they throw the kitchen sink at it. They’d be better off trying to nab Brisbane or at a stretch Griffith.

@tommo9 yes but they only do that in exceptional cases not all the time in every seat. there is even discussion of kicking out 2 sitting memebers in qld Neumann and Perrett to replace them with women to meet their quotas and even that isnt looking likely as there is talk of Albo intervening to keep Neumann in place to try and hold blair. and yes i agree that was a mistake in gilmore that the libs probably would have won with the rank of file candidate. same with the aston by election. due to his increased pofile cbecause of the voice referendum mundine would probably win if he ran today and i suspect he may run somewhere soon.

ryan, brisbane and griffith wont be won by labor while their in govt they couldnt even win them from opposition. i suspect griffith is unwinnable now because its a 2 horse race between liberals and greens so unless they steal votes from greens they cant win it wont be a greens vs alp contest like melbourne which they do have a chance to retake especially if bandt retires.

I think it’ll be fascinating to see how much the majors will learn from the backlash against parachuting candidates and picking insiders over the wishes of the rank and file or the community at large. Labor most of all really should have learned from Fowler 2022 that they can’t take their solid voting areas for granted in this respect, but to a degree they repeated this mistake in the Inala by-election by failing to pick a Vietnamese Australian candidate and choosing a favoured party insider instead.

The Liberals engaged in this a fair bit in 2022 also, partly due to Scott Morrison meddling in several preselections, by delaying them and then installing his preferred candidates. He’s now gone from the party though, so perhaps the new power structure will learn from that.

Looking at Brisbane inner city, it is more conservative than those in Melbourne and Sydney just by looking at The Voice referendum where every suburb in Brisbane whether inner or outer had a higher No percentage than a equivalent suburb if they were in Melbourne.
I think it has to do with Queensland strong Anglo-Australian identity which is still pretty prominent even in the inner-city.

@Wilson totally agree with the Fowler case although I don’t know if Labor will learn from it given that they’ll probably take the fact that Andrew Charlton won Parramatta despite being from the other affluent side of town and think it will work again. No idea whose idea it was that Keneally would work well in Fowler when she was the premier at the 2011 landslide. Should’ve stuck to her senate ticket if they really wanted her on the frontbench.

I’m trying to imagine how much of a flow-over effect the state election might have on the Federal next year. I know that QLD can be very flexible in voting differently but if sentiments are anything to go by it’s hard to see Labor gaining anything further than what they have when the Greens are eating away their inner city crowds whilst the LNP keeps (bizarrely) getting stronger in the regions.

@tommo it worked with Charlton but not kennelling because she’s from the wealthy part of the north shore trying to get a seat in the most multicultural and working class part of nsw

This is ”Ryan” not ”Parramatta” stay on topic please before Ben says something.

Ryan will stay with the Greens as long as the LNP stick with the hard-right. Dutton’s ”QLD” status will do as much as it did for ScoMo in NSW.

My god the comments here have gotten completely off topic. I’m gonna delete a bunch of them. Daniel did say this yesterday but apparently people aren’t listening.

@Ben Raue not trying to get off-topic again but can I just say how the hell did comments on the Ryan thread end up being about Parramatta, right-wing politics and Francoist Spain?

@daniel t never say never. Bill shorten thought he’d be pm in 2019 and from what I heard from a reliable source he was already measuring the curtains in the lodge

No worries NP, I think saying “what the hell happened here” is definitely on topic.

I think Parramatta came up because of a conversation about parachuting candidates and Fowler (not really sure what that had to do with Ryan). Franco was because someone referred to Dutton as “hard right” and someone else wanted to broaden the perspective on what is “hard right”.

But let’s leave it there.

@ben Wilson mentioned it by comparing the inala by election to it

Leaving that aside, this is probably the only seat in Brisbane that will be up for any genuine contention. Still think the Greens will keep this though.

Does this seat hold a rare distinction of being represented by a woman from the 3 main parties?

Leonie Short
Jane Prentice
Elizabeth Watson-Brown

I cannot find any other seat and state or territory level let alone federal that has this distinction.

Is this the only seat that has ever had this distinction at a state or federal level?

Daniel, I would think so – I haven’t found any other examples like it.

I believe Ryan shares another distinction with two other seats, Brisbane (federal) and the Victorian state seat of Prahran. These three are the only seats that have been held by all three of Labor, Liberal and Greens at some point in time within the 21st century.

Watson-Brown is the first woman to hold a federal lower house seat for the Greens, so of course Ryan has that distinction.

@Yoh An
I think the now-abolished State Indooroopilly counts too. Ronan Lee was both Labor and Green (though never elected as the latter), and then went Liberal from 2009 till its abolition in 2017.
Also notable is that both of Maiwar’s precursor seats (Mt Coottha and the aforementioned Indooroopilly) have been won by both majors, but was won by the Greens when merged.

Elizabeth Watson-Brown may be the first Green, elected at a general election, to be defeated (assuming she recontests).

Anyone passed the billboard along Coro Dr lately?

@BJA, yes agreed, entirely possible EWB could lose the seat given how marginal it is. Although what will help EWB is that Ryan appears to be a left-trending seat and has been for some decades now – in 2022 the (notional) Labor 2PP ran 7 points ahead of the QLD statewide 2PP, a big change from the previous longstanding pro-Liberal lean of the seat (in 2007 for example, Labor’s 2PP was 4 points worse than the QLD statewide 2PP. The question is whether the huge acceleration of the leftward trend in 2022 was just a blip. If so and there’s a correction back to the LNP, the LNP are in strong contention.

What does the billboard on Coro Dr say, and how might it be relevant?

The Greens will hold onto all of their federal electorates, the mostly likely outcome is an improvement in the primary and the tpp. My reasoning is both marjory parties are unpopular and we are more likely at the next federal election to an increase of smaller parties.

@GPPS
It was a cryptic way of making the observation that billboards are already up to attack the Greens.

What gets lost in the “a teal would’ve won Ryan” chat, whether it is true or not, is that there was a move to start a teal campaign there before the last election, but they couldn’t get it off the ground because the Greens were so strong.

2024 BCC Walter Taylor Ward candidate Rebecca Hack is Labor’s candidate here

Irrelevant, she has no chance.

@daniel t agreed this is lost to Labor probably until they find footage of Adam bandt punching a nun. (WHICH DIDNT HAPPEN) this will be a lnp vs greens contest for the foreseeable future but I wouldn’t write off the lnp here in 2025 as it’s still within reason for them to regain it especially since they are now in opposition

This is probably the lnps best chance asthe seat was probably won on the protest vote against the lnp who didn’t want to vote Labor (this seat has never voted Labor except for a small period in 2001 at a by election that was quickly regained

It always mystifies me why there was no Teal in Ryan or Higgins in 2022. Both seats were ripe Teal territory. Was there a backroom deal done somewhere to let the Greens and Labor have a clear run? This to me is the best chance for a Liberal gain. A few % points on the primary and they will be in. Ripe also for a covert ALP 1 Libs 2 preference strategy.

@redistributed the primary vote of the 3 majors is simply too high in Higgins. Teal voters already had the greens and Labor in some sort of contention so not much room for a tealin either division. Teals only really thrive in places with high lib primaries and relatively low Labor and greens

In the long run Labor would be better off helping the libs unseat the greens and then unseating the libs as Labor will never unseat the greens in any of the 3 qld seats except maybe Brisbane in a good yearbut 2022 was their chance for that

john is correct a Teal would not have made the 2CP in Higgins there is a stronger Labor vote in Carnegie and Murrumbeena as well as very strong Greens vote in Prahran and Windsor. most of the teal vote is tactical.