Ryan – Australia 2025

@redistributed

In the case of Higgins, it isn’t really a teal seat. Sure you had posh areas like Toorak and Malvern that are typical of teal seats but inner-city areas with high Greens votes (Prahran, Windsor, South Yarra) and middle suburban areas with strong Labor votes (Hughesdale, Carnegie, Murrumbeena) mean it isn’t exactly fertile ground for a teal campaign.

In the case of Ryan, as I’ve previously alluded to, they tried to get a teal campaign off the ground but they couldn’t because the Greens were already quite strong. It’s a bit tricky to run a grassroots campaign when the bulk of your ideal volunteers are already volunteering for the Greens.

I will be closely looking at the state results for this seat. This will be my method for determining the results:

Maiwar + Moggill + Cooper (Ryan) + Ferny Grove (Ryan)

* Suburbs of Cooper in Ryan: Bardon, Enoggera Reservoir, The Gap
* Suburbs of Ferny Grove in Ryan: Ferny Grove, Gaythorne, Grovely, Keperra, Mitchelton, Upper Kedron

At the last state election, this was the TPP here:

* Labor: 52.1%
* LNP: 47.9%

On council results however it’s an LNP seat and I would assume quite comfortably but I haven’t checked the council results yet.

My personal view is that the LNP vote at the state election next week will be below the Council Result but above the Federal 2022 and probably the Federal 2025 result. Crisafulli is less moderate than the BCC LNP but more moderate than the Federal LNP hence the difference.

@Nimalan I agree. I just checked the council results for Ryan, the LNP would’ve won 57.5% of the TCP vote against the Greens in Ryan at the BCC elections. That means yes, it is probable that the Greens only won Ryan because of A. Preferences and B. either a protest vote against the majors or a teal vote. The LNP even held onto Walter Taylor which is in Maiwar.

@ Nether portal
Yeah this teal is demographically Tealish Small L liberal so more like Kooyong, Goldstein etc. Right wing economically but socially moderate supports climate action a decent 2030 target etc. It is the poshest seat in Brisbane.

@NP the last state results are almost identical to the federal results so that may be a glimmer of hope for the lnp

Last state election, Labor got 53.2% of the TPP which even higher than what Kevin Rudd got in 2007, if that was repeated in 2022. Albo would have picked up Petrie, Forde, Longman, Herbert and Leichardt as well. Labor only got 46% of the primary in QLD in May 2022.

@Nimalan Labor got 46% of the TPP vote not the primary vote.

Also I think he’s referring to Ryan itself, and that is true because Labor’s notional TPP against the LNP in Ryan is 52.4% as of the 2022 federal election.

if the lnp can regain a small percentage that was lost in 2022 it may flip back

@ NP
yes that was a typo Labor got 46% of the TPP i mean.
Yes i agree but 2022 election showed a class polarization which was not there at the state election. We see that in the 2023 NSW state election as well where State Labor overperformed in Western Sydney, Hunter Valley and Southern Sydney but underperformed in Northern Sydney compared to Federal results. In short, the climate change debate meant Labor underperformed among the White Working Class at a federal level while the Federal LNP underperformed in affluent areas. Dutton is more polarising than Crisafulli so that divide will still be an issue.

@Nimalan with the LNP all but certain to win the state election, do you think that on state results they will have majorities of the TPP in Brisbane and Ryan?

@ NP
No dispute the LNP will the state election.
1. Yes i do think on state results they will majority of the TPP in Brisbane and Ryan. However, IMHO it will be slightly less than they got at the BCC elections though
2. On state results i also expect them do quite well in Moreton and Griffith and massively over-perform the Federal results although i am not confident enough to make a prediction they will a majority of the TPP either way.

griffith will likely remain grn due to the overwhelming left vote in that seat and the fact its at quota so likely wont see any changes with the redistribution however i believe the lnp will benefit from the redistribution in rankin and maybe moreton and blair also in seats like lilley brisbane ryan and dickson but will likely concentrate more of the left vote in oxley due to it taking in more of ipswich from blair.

Based off of state election results, unless the Greens muster something miraculous, LNP gain.

@James agree and Paddington Ward will go back to the LNP.

@ NP
The State LNP are more moderate than the Federal LNP on climate should this be an opportunity to announce a 2030 target?

Nether Portal, Paddington ward is too far away to predict. The council will have state and maybe even federal drag by then so the greens will probably do just fine.

@Nimalan yes.

@TBR except the BCC LNP are notably really moderate.

Will be interesting to see overlapping federal results

Primary vote results here from the state election (official first preference count):

* LNP: 41.2% (+2.7%)
* Labor: 28.4% (+6.1%)
* Greens: 26.6% (–3.6%)
* One Nation: 3.7% (+1.4%)
* Family First: 0.1% (+0.1%)

Swings are from the 2022 federal election. Note that Family First only ran in Cooper and only a few booths in Cooper are in Ryan.

This spells trouble for the Greens in Ryan as not only is their vote dropping and the LNP and Labor vote is increasing, on state results Labor would come second and thus knock the Greens out of the TCP. Based on those I think Labor would narrowly win this but I’m not sure. Of course there are moderates who prefer the BCC LNP over the state and federal LNP but the state LNP over the more conservative federal LNP and then moderates who prefer state Labor over the more progressive federal Labor, the latter group of federal LNP voters likely being the reason Labor still outpolls the Greens on the state level in the seat of Moggill but not federally (or at least not in 2022).

@ NP a couple of points.
1. Yeah i agree the Greens could be wary and remember that this is a Tealish seat not an ecosocialist seat and need to run a separate message from the campaign in Wills.
2. I think incumbency has an impact for example Jonty Bush is very popular in Cooper and suppressed the Greens vote in the overlapping booths.
3. The Greens vote may have been suppressed (versus Labor) in Moggil as neither the Greens nor Labor had it as a target seat. At a federal Level, Labor voters in Moggill may just vote Greens to stop the LNP winning it back.
4. I think Family First vote can transcend class lines but in an affluent seat like Ryan if they ran at a federal level they would probably just take votes of the LNP while in a middle class area like Bonner, Petrie they can potentially take from both.
5. I do agree the State LNP are more Moderate so all else being equal i think the Federal LNP would do slightly worse especially the lack of a 2030 target.
6. I do agree there will be voters who find the Federal Labor party too progressive and vote for the LNP but happy to do so at a state level. Those voters probably dont exist in Ryan though but can be found in Petrie, Longman etc

State Labor, even at the recent state election, far outperformed federal Labor in 2022 in this neck of the woods. State Labor holds Cooper (Jonty Bush got a primary vote swing to her) and Ferny Grove. There was a sizable swing to Labor in Maiwar (a Green seat) and a small-ish swing to the LNP.

I mentioned in one of the first posts here that this is a blue/green seat and the Greens won in the absence of a teal. The swings to the Greens may have been driven by anti-Morrison factors. A large cohort of Greens voters, especially outside UQ and St Lucia, are not rusted-on voters and are not economically left-wing or socialist. They may be agnostic or apathetic to issues like Palestine.

There may be some key economic/housing issues that could put off Greens voters in suburbs away from the Brisbane River and Fig Tree Pocket (that is outside of St Lucia, Toowong and Indooroopilly). A lot of people are either landlords or homeowners or willingly chose to rent expensive homes and may be put off by Greens’ proposals for rent freezes or caps.

I mean, the Greens MP here is a landlord with six properties. There’s probably a lot of people like her in the wealthier parts of this electorate who will be turned off by the federal greens’ shift from an environmental to housing based party.

Agree, and this is a challenge the Libs face what works in West End does not really work across the river. The Greens need to find a way to separate the message from what is targeting to Green Left/Young Socialists. I believe the base of the Greens is actually young renters/students and socialists while Professional women is something they have picked up as the Libs have moved rightwards. MCM grandstanding on housing and looking like holding Labor to ransom maybe putting off centrist voters. Professional women are the base of the Teals and in the past the Australian Democrats.

@A A
Your point stands, but note that Watson-Brown has three or four properties, not six. Three of them are listed twice, once as 50% ownership in her section and again as 50% ownership in her spouse’s section. They don’t own 50% of six houses; they jointly own 100% of three houses.
The other is where she has listed one house as belonging to ‘dependent children’. Unsure if she owns this or is just declaring a close family link to a property.
https://www.aph.gov.au/-/media/03_Senators_and_Members/32_Members/Register/47P/SZ/Watson-Brown_47P.pdf

Oh true, fair enough. Didn’t realise, just read through the register of interests quickly.

State TPP here (2024):

* Labor/Greens: 51.3%
* LNP: 48.7%

NOTE: there swings are from the last federal election. Note that I must’ve made an error in my previous calculation as it had Labor 0.2% lower in 2020 than in 2024 when three of the four overlapping seats had swings to the LNP on TPP/TCP (Cooper is an exception, there was a small swing to Labor there, but unless the swings to Labor in the Cooper booths were above average I don’t see how Labor could’ve increased their TPP here when they had a decreased TPP in two of the three overlapping seats where they came second (and the Greens had a swing against them in Maiwar). Either that or I’ve missed a booth or two in my 2024 calculation.

Wait no never mind the swings are correct.

TPP:
* Labor/Greens: 51.3% (–0.8%) (–1.1% Labor, –1.4% Greens)
* LNP: 48.7% (+0.8%) (+1.1% Labor, +1.3% Greens)

Compare this to the last BCC election:

TCP:
* LNP: 57.5% (+9.6%) (+10.1%)
* Greens: 42.5% (–9.6%) (–10.1%)

NOTE: the first swing is from the last state election and the second is from the last federal election.

i hear the klibs are quitely confident of regaining this

According to The Poll Bludger this seat contains:

* 43% of Cooper
* 50% of Ferny Grove
* 100% of Maiwar
* All of Moggill except for Karana Downs, Kholo and Mount Crosby

I am surprised the teals never bothered here as it could have seen this possibly gone to them. I don’t expect that happen now.

I feel the state election was more proof this area is massively trending away from the Libs. 7% swing in QLD and the seats in Ryan

Cooper: .7% to Labor
Maiwar: 2.9% to Libs
Ferny Grove: 3.1% to Libs
Moggill: 2% to Libs

All swung less than half of the national avg and in all seats the Libs are doing worse than 2015 (an election they lost).

This seat has a 2.6% margin and the polls are showing that’s roughly the swing the Libs are getting nation wide. But this seat has the loss of a Lib incumbent, gaining a Green incumbent, inner city area, so it’s hard to see it swinging more than the national average.

@Drake those seats all still swung to the LNP and had one of them swung 1% or 2% more to the LNP then Ryan would be an LNP seat on state results as opposed to a Labor seat.

This would seem a reasonable chance of a Lib pickup. Much more so than Brisbane which would be a bit of a stretch.

I’m saying liberal gain here. Mainly because I don’t think the greens will lose enough vote hereto put Labor back in the 2pp.and the incumbent Liberal state govt is in its honeymoon. The fact Dutton is a QLD and the fact the liberals likely bottomed out in 2022 due to scomo and an aging govt that had problems. Now the problems are Albos and Labors. Brisbane will be alot harder especially if it’s a Lib v Lab contest.

While I think it’s probably a liberal gain, because the morrison factor has worn off, reducing the LNP –> GRN protest vote, I don’t think dutton being a QLDer will help him in these parts. I think inner city affluent seats like this one have a very negative view of right-leaning leaders like him, and tend to favour moderate leaders like Turnbull.

50-50 with this one and Blair too.

Surprisingly, most polling in QLD doesn’t look too good for the LNP rn.

I think the Greens might hold on for the reasons AA said. Plus, there will be tactical voting by Labor voters.

@nether portal what tactical voting? If Labor were to make the 2ppp they would win on green votes. If Labor didn’t make the 2pp their vote would go back to the greens anyway so tactically voting green is pointless. Ryan should be an lnp vs grn seat given Labor are way behind and I’d expect the lnp recovery will take votes off both. For that reason I’d say lnp gain. Blair is gonna a little bit harder since it’s only a larger margin. Given albo has retained Neumann against the quota he should hold that seat. But he won’t hold in 2028 due to the unfavourable redistribution and likely npbeing booted due to the gender quota.

@John in 2022, Labor voters tactically voted for the Greens in Ryan to unseat the LNP. While state results show they wouldn’t have to as Labor outpolled the Greens on state results and would’ve narrowly beaten the LNP on Greens preferences, they might still do it federally to keep the LNP from winning the seat.

It’s similar to the teal seats. Tactical voting and preferences were key to their victory in 2022 and will be key to their re-election in 2025. Polling and research shows that most teal voters actually come from the left not the right, hence why Labor and the Greens polled record lows in the teal seats (in Kooyong, Labor polled just 6.9% (–10.6%) and the Greens polled just 6.3% (–14.8%) compared to 42.7% (–6.5%) for the Liberals and 40.3% for Monique Ryan).

Brisbane I expect to be a Labor gain though due to the fact that Labor should’ve won last time but the AJP helped the Greens. Trevor Evans should still be a politician though, he just needs to wait for a state seat to become vacant (maybe Clayfield when Tim Nicholls retires).

@np yea and if they had of voted Labor Labor would have won the seat. Tactical voting doesn’t really work where both your teams would finish 2nd and 3rd. Does it. That’s just like nats or lib voters tactically voting for one another even though the result would be the same. They didn’t keep the libs out by voting greens they just got a greens mp elected in place of a Labor one so that doesn’t really work does it and rather then have an incumbent Labor mp boosted by high greens vote they now have a greens mp and the libs mp is a lot closer to winning. Brisbane i expect to be a 3 way race. The alp will be held accountable for govt problems without the benefit of incumbency and a possible reduced greens vote means the lnp could steal it back. If the lnp win Brisbane and Ryan expect to see Dutton in the lodge.

@NP In the 2022 federal election, Labor voters did not have to tactically vote Greens to defeat the LNP/Coalition in Ryan or any other Coalition seat because:

1 Greens to Labor and Labor to Greens preference flows are pretty similar. If Labor did not win the 2PP over the LNP/Coalition, it’s highly unlikely that the Greens could win the 2CP over the LNP/Coalition (Prahran VIC state 2014 is a notable exception though). In fact, ALP vs LNP 2PP in Ryan was only 0.23% lower than GRN vs LNP 2CP. In Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan at the 2022 federal election, the differences between ALP vs LNP 2PP and GRN vs LNP 2CP were all less than 0.7%. If Labor made the final two in these seats, Labor would have won these seats. Therefoe there’s no case for tactical voting against Labor in favour of the Greens in any Coalition seat in order to defeat the Coalition.

2 In the case of Ryan, nobody expected the Greens to win Ryan before the 2022 federal election, in fact many predicted it to be an LNP retain. Before 2022, the Liberals/LNP have never lost Ryan at a general election, and the LNP still had a fairly decent margin of 6% going into the 2022 federal election, therefore many people predicted Ryan to be an LNP retain. The chance of Labor or anyone else defeating the LNP in Ryan was generally thought to be low, therefore voting Greens in Ryan did not make it more likely for the LNP to be defeated as opposed to voting Labor, hence no case for tactical voting.

By contrast, in teal seats, if teals didn’t finish in the final two and the seats ended up becoming classic LIB vs ALP contests, Liberals would have won these seats. Hence the case for tactical voting for teals by normally ALP and Greens voters trying to defeat the Liberals.

In the 2025 federal election, many Labor voters in Ryan may switch to Greens considering the fact that the Greens have already won the seat, Labor will definitely not make the final two and their votes will ultimately flow to the Greens, so why not vote for the Greens in the first place. However this has nothing to do with strategic voting.