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This seat has gone with the government of the day sense 1983, if Labor lose here they’ll likely lose government.
@spacefish not necessarily it’s currently only labor’s 5th moth marginal seat so labor can lose this without losing govt. In a hung parliament where independents can side against the will 9f the of the electorate bellwethers often can. In 2010 it voted labor who only won govt because 2 conservative seats sides with labor who normally would have installed a coalition govt. Dutton could theoretically win the seat but not be in govt as the crossbench who are stacked against him May install a labor govt.
Bellwethers aren’t predictive.
Lucy Wicks is running again.
I’m of the feeling that Reid can end the bellwether, he seems to be best backbencher you can be, champing community issues lobbying a state Labor government hard, and making representations to state ministers instead of going through the usual back channels. What’s people’s thoughts?
LIberal gain here Kent. although im tipping a Liberal government so the bellwether to continue
I think this is a toss-up. Robertson apparently has the most stressed renters in Australia )https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-03/electorates-in-financial-stress-four-corners/104875102), which you’d think could flip it to the Liberals. However as @Australia’s Kent Davidson says, Gordon Reid seems to be proactive
@nick thanks for that link
there a few labor electorates that could be classed as vunerable on that list as well as a few seats in the safe zone so there could be amjor shift to the liberals in those seats. as well as the independent in Franklin and Greens in Macnamara an Wills. Seats like Lyons, Bruce, Macarthur, Werrwa, Robertson, Paterson, Rankinn (the treasures seat), Blair, Lilley, Pearce, Cowan and Swan.