Robertson – Australia 2025

This seat has gone with the government of the day sense 1983, if Labor lose here they’ll likely lose government.

@spacefish not necessarily it’s currently only labor’s 5th moth marginal seat so labor can lose this without losing govt. In a hung parliament where independents can side against the will 9f the of the electorate bellwethers often can. In 2010 it voted labor who only won govt because 2 conservative seats sides with labor who normally would have installed a coalition govt. Dutton could theoretically win the seat but not be in govt as the crossbench who are stacked against him May install a labor govt.

Bellwethers aren’t predictive.

Lucy Wicks is running again.

I’m of the feeling that Reid can end the bellwether, he seems to be best backbencher you can be, champing community issues lobbying a state Labor government hard, and making representations to state ministers instead of going through the usual back channels. What’s people’s thoughts?

LIberal gain here Kent. although im tipping a Liberal government so the bellwether to continue

I think this is a toss-up. Robertson apparently has the most stressed renters in Australia )https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-03/electorates-in-financial-stress-four-corners/104875102), which you’d think could flip it to the Liberals. However as @Australia’s Kent Davidson says, Gordon Reid seems to be proactive

@nick thanks for that link

there a few labor electorates that could be classed as vunerable on that list as well as a few seats in the safe zone so there could be amjor shift to the liberals in those seats. as well as the independent in Franklin and Greens in Macnamara an Wills. Seats like Lyons, Bruce, Macarthur, Werrwa, Robertson, Paterson, Rankinn (the treasures seat), Blair, Lilley, Pearce, Cowan and Swan.

Think Lucy Wicks has outstayed her welcome alp retain

Are the libs winning any seats mick?

@john – based on your comments the LNP seems to be winning something like 70-80% of seats up for grabs

Yes some but they won’t be the closest vote in 2022 and there will be some they expect are in the bag and find well the bag is empty. Look at Qld who predicted the alp to retain Bundaberg.

I suspect the mp for Bundaberg got some publicity when smiles flew there on a 12 minute plane ride to deliver his birthday cake.

Bazza I never said they would win those seats I said there would be a major shift. That means swings to them. Not necessarily winning the seats

But they will win at least the 10 I stated a few months ago

I think today’s Medicare announcement will help Labor a lot in outer suburbs like this, and especially here with a local GP as Labor’s member. I think Labor can hang on here.

Doubtful. People know when the government is trying to buy votes. They’ll take the stuff but won’t sell. I think labor is toast here.

@john I wouldn’t be that confident

It may hold off the libs in places like greenway Macquarie and Eden Monaro but the margin here is below the expected swing.

The expected swing now may well not be the expected swing at the time of the election. Hard to see the interest rate cut and medicare policy not having an impact.

The interest rate cut will be almost nothing as by the time it kicks in the election will be done. And besides one cut won’t make any bit of difference. That’s just like walking threw the desert and finding a few drops of water.

Robertson is higher income and lower mortgage stress than other outer suburbs or the areas further north into the Hunter, I also don’t think the medicare policy (matched by Dutton) or a measly interest rate cut does much for Labor’s prospects here

Agreed it has very low mortgage stress but extremely high rental stress 94.8% which I’m pretty sure is one of the highest if not the highest in the country. Interest rates aren’t gonna help with that and neither. Is Medicare policy