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Looks like an Easy Nat retain. But if a credible independent came forward – one to the “left” of the Nats but with enough firebrand energy to soak up PHON/UAP/SFF preferences – there might be enough to work with to win. McCormack has a surprisingly low primary vote for a high profile Nat in Nat heartland.
Joe McGirr is the case in point that an independent can win here. Wagga Wagga does seem to be trending left, and there’s also larger pockets of Canberra influence after the redistribution.
The addition of Tumut, Tumbarumba and Yass into the electorate will help Labor/Left of Nats Independents and the loss of the extreme Nat voting North will reduce McCormack’s margin to maybe under 12%.
It might be a bit of a crowded field come election day. Wagga councilor Richard Foley who ran 3rd for the UAP in 2019 is running again with the Australian Citizens Party, and there’s 2 independents already announced.
Barbara Baikie is a former Wagga resident but now lives in the newly added Yass Valley area seems to be the lower profile independent and then Jenny Rolfe who was the Together for Riverina (Voices) selection. Jenny Rolfe is very well known in Wagga and I think has received some funding from the McGowan led “Regional Voices Fund”. If Rolfe can get ahead of Labor (which is possible) and attract a significant portion of the minor Right Wing preferences then she might be able to eat into the margin significantly.
I don’t think an Independent can win this time around but a top 2 finish would set them up for a real crack at 2028. McGirr shows that Wagga has the appetite for something different, maybe that can translate into the wider Riverina with a decent enough option.
The 3 T’s shift backwards and forward between Eden Monaro and here.
Labor polls well there when it is a serious contest ie In Eden Monaro. But unless Labor could win in Wagga they cannot win here
Agree Mick. Tumut and Tumbarumba are not really positives for the prospects of knocking off McCormack. Labor can do ok there with a visible incumbent that can back them up on local issues (e.g. council mergers) but it’s otherwise solid Nat territory that doesn’t even get the Canberra and Tourism influences of the other side of the Snowy mountains.
Yass Valley however can turn out for Labor in a real contest. If Jenny Rolfe has any chance she should dominate those booths.
@witness wagga waga can be attributed to the Darryl macquire saga
@john Yes it has and Liberal corruption has left a stain and proven to Wagga voters that an Independent member can service the electorate just fine.
!witness yes but mccormak is a nationals member and a federal politician in a division that includes more then just wagga.
Witness, although I would agree more with John in that current MP Michael McCormick being a somewhat moderate who has pushed back against the more hardcore elements of the National Party is a better fit for the district so he would be able to compete strongly against any teal like independent challenger.
once mcgirrr goes wagga wagga will likely elect a nationals member as opposed to a liberal again