NAT 9.7%
Incumbent MP
Michael McCormack, since 2010.
Geography
South-Western NSW. The seat stretches from Wagga Wagga, Lockhart and Tumbarumba in the south to Genfell and Cowra in the north, as far east as Crookwell and Yass, and also covers Cootamundra, Young, Gundagai and Tumut.
Redistribution
Riverina shifted south-east, taking in the Snowy Valleys and Yass Valley council areas from Eden-Monaro and taking in the Upper Lachlan council area and former Boorowa council area from Hume. Riverina lost the Bland, Forbes and Parkes council areas to Parkes. These changes cut the Nationals margin from 14.8% to 9.7%.
Riverina is an original federation electorate, although it was renamed as ‘Riverina-Darling’ from 1984 until 1993. It has been dominated by conservative parties, namely the Country/National Party since its emergence in the 1920s. Having said that, the ALP has managed to win the seat on a number of occasions, most recently in 1977.
The seat was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate John Chanter, who had been a member of the State Parliament since 1885. At the 1903 election, Free Trade candidate Robert Blackwood defeated Chanter by five votes. An appeal saw the result overturned, and Chanter won the ensuing by-election in 1904.
Chanter continued to serve as a Protectionist until 1909, when he refused to support the Fusion of conservative parties to form the Liberal Party, and instead joined the Labor Party. He managed to win reelection for the ALP in 1910, but lost his seat in 1913 to Liberal candidate Franc Falkiner. Chanter again managed to win the seat back in 1914, and Falkiner went on to serve one term as Member for Hume from 1917 to 1919.
Chanter left the ALP in 1916 over the issue of conscription and joined the new Nationalist Party. He held the seat for them until 1922, when he was defeated by William Killen, candidate for the new Country Party.
Killen held Riverina for the Country Party until his retirement in 1931, when he was succeeded by Horace Nock. Nock served as a Minister in the Menzies government in 1940, but lost his seat later that year to ALP candidate Joseph Langtry.
Langtry was re-elected in 1943 and 1946 before losing Riverina to the Country Party’s Hugh Roberton in 1949.
Roberton held Riverina for sixteen years. He was made Minister for Social Services in 1956, serving in that role until 1965, when he left Parliament to become Australia’s Ambassador to Ireland. The ensuing by-election was won by Adam Armstrong, who held the seat until 1969, when he lost to the ALP’s Al Grassby.
Grassby was appointed Minister for Immigration following the election of the Whitlam Labor government in 1972, and was a fierce advocate of multiculturalism in the role, however he failed to win reelection in 1974, losing Riverina to the Country Party’s John Sullivan.
Sullivan held Riverina for two terms, losing to the ALP’s John FitzPatrick in 1977. FitzPatrick lost in 1980 to the National Country Party’s Noel Hicks.
Hicks held Riverina for most of the next two decades. The seat was renamed Riverina-Darling in 1984 but reverted to its original name in 1993. Hicks retired in 1998, and the Nationals candidate Kay Hull retained the seat. Hull held the seat from 1998 until her retirement in 2010.
In 2010, Nationals candidate Michael McCormack was elected. The Liberal Party challenged for the Nationals seat, but only managed 16.5% and failed to overtake the Labor candidate. McCormack has held the seat ever since, and became Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister in early 2018. McCormack retained this role until June 2021, when he was replaced as party leader and as deputy prime minister.
Assessment
Riverina is a safe Nationals seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Michael McCormack | Nationals | 45,951 | 46.6 | -13.4 | 43.9 |
| Mark Jeffreson | Labor | 20,193 | 20.5 | -2.7 | 24.9 |
| Richard Orchard | One Nation | 8,042 | 8.2 | +8.2 | 7.4 |
| Michael Organ | Greens | 6,349 | 6.4 | +0.2 | 6.7 |
| Dean McCrae | Liberal Democrats | 6,563 | 6.7 | +6.7 | 5.7 |
| Steve Karaitiana | Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 6,280 | 6.4 | +6.4 | 4.1 |
| Daniel Martelozzo | United Australia | 2,585 | 2.6 | -8.1 | 2.7 |
| Darren Ciavarella | Independent | 2,701 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 2.2 |
| Independent | 1.6 | ||||
| Others | 0.8 | ||||
| Informal | 7,794 | 7.3 | +2.2 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Michael McCormack | Nationals | 63,979 | 64.8 | -4.6 | 59.7 |
| Mark Jeffreson | Labor | 34,685 | 35.2 | +4.6 | 40.3 |
Polling places in Riverina have been split into three parts: east, north-west and south.
The Coalition won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the south (57.7%) and the north-west (66.3%). Labor won 50.3% in the east.
| Voter group | L/N 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 57.7 | 22,356 | 20.7 |
| North-West | 66.3 | 17,344 | 16.1 |
| East | 49.7 | 7,748 | 7.2 |
| Pre-poll | 60.0 | 49,044 | 45.5 |
| Other votes | 59.0 | 11,400 | 10.6 |
Election results in Riverina at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, Labor and the Liberal Party.
Looks like an Easy Nat retain. But if a credible independent came forward – one to the “left” of the Nats but with enough firebrand energy to soak up PHON/UAP/SFF preferences – there might be enough to work with to win. McCormack has a surprisingly low primary vote for a high profile Nat in Nat heartland.
Joe McGirr is the case in point that an independent can win here. Wagga Wagga does seem to be trending left, and there’s also larger pockets of Canberra influence after the redistribution.
The addition of Tumut, Tumbarumba and Yass into the electorate will help Labor/Left of Nats Independents and the loss of the extreme Nat voting North will reduce McCormack’s margin to maybe under 12%.
It might be a bit of a crowded field come election day. Wagga councilor Richard Foley who ran 3rd for the UAP in 2019 is running again with the Australian Citizens Party, and there’s 2 independents already announced.
Barbara Baikie is a former Wagga resident but now lives in the newly added Yass Valley area seems to be the lower profile independent and then Jenny Rolfe who was the Together for Riverina (Voices) selection. Jenny Rolfe is very well known in Wagga and I think has received some funding from the McGowan led “Regional Voices Fund”. If Rolfe can get ahead of Labor (which is possible) and attract a significant portion of the minor Right Wing preferences then she might be able to eat into the margin significantly.
I don’t think an Independent can win this time around but a top 2 finish would set them up for a real crack at 2028. McGirr shows that Wagga has the appetite for something different, maybe that can translate into the wider Riverina with a decent enough option.
The 3 T’s shift backwards and forward between Eden Monaro and here.
Labor polls well there when it is a serious contest ie In Eden Monaro. But unless Labor could win in Wagga they cannot win here
Agree Mick. Tumut and Tumbarumba are not really positives for the prospects of knocking off McCormack. Labor can do ok there with a visible incumbent that can back them up on local issues (e.g. council mergers) but it’s otherwise solid Nat territory that doesn’t even get the Canberra and Tourism influences of the other side of the Snowy mountains.
Yass Valley however can turn out for Labor in a real contest. If Jenny Rolfe has any chance she should dominate those booths.
@witness wagga waga can be attributed to the Darryl macquire saga
@john Yes it has and Liberal corruption has left a stain and proven to Wagga voters that an Independent member can service the electorate just fine.
!witness yes but mccormak is a nationals member and a federal politician in a division that includes more then just wagga.
Witness, although I would agree more with John in that current MP Michael McCormick being a somewhat moderate who has pushed back against the more hardcore elements of the National Party is a better fit for the district so he would be able to compete strongly against any teal like independent challenger.
once mcgirrr goes wagga wagga will likely elect a nationals member as opposed to a liberal again
I wonder if the name Riverina is still appropriate if the electorate shrinks or moves eastward next redistribution. It might as most of the population growth in NSW is towards or on the coast. The newly absorbed Yass and Snowy Valleys are not part of the Riverina region.
An independent would have challenges given the very diverse geography and mixed communities and a very dispersed population. Wagga Wagga is by far the largest population centre. Young is a distant second.
At best, Jenny Rolfe, the “Voices” candidate, can come second following preferences. It depends on the traction she can get in her hometown of Wagga Wagga as well as Yass and Snowy Valleys. Other than that, I expect a Nationals retain.
Another Independent is joining the contest here. James Gooden, who is less from the “progressive” side of scale then other already announced Independents here. To describe him as “Anti-Renewable Energy” is not a fair description but a prominent rural NIMBY is probably more accurate.
Riverina refers to the MIA and areas round the Murray River on the border
Neither are in this seat now.
@witness after they annonnec the boundaires i tried to suggest they abolish Riverina and maintain the Hume name over the new Riverina area and the new hume should have been renamed Walton as many people did suggest for the area that seat now covers. dont expect any chnage from the Nationals member McCormak to retain this seat
In a social context people on the ground use the term Riverina to refer to a lot more than the old Geographical “Riverina” based in the MIA. I would still consider most of the Electorate of Riverina to fall within my definition of the Riverina expect for Yass Valley, Upper Lachlan, Cowra and Weddin. But I do agree that a name change is warranted, should it be Hume, maybe or something new.
@witness unfortunately the HUme name is not going to be coming back to this area
The Murrumbidgee River goes to Canberra. I have tended to associate the Riverina with Griffith and Wagga Wagga and Albury and LGAs next to them or in between. Cowra and Yass are out of it.
I like it when electorates are named after geographic regions like Gippsland but a large chunk of the Riverina region is out of this electorate.
Hume is a federation seat that has always been associated with the route covered by the explorer and then the highway. Riverina should be retired at the next redistribution, renamed Hume, and the current Hume renamed. Or perhaps the AEC is waiting for one of the former PMs from NSW to succumb to life’s inevitability.
Interesting to see where the vote differs. There’s (somehow) still a relatively high ALP vote in towns that used to have railway and/or factory workers living in them- namely Junee, Gundagai, Temora, Cootamundra and Harden. While I would not call any of these boom towns, the population does turn over gradually. So I am curious as to why voting patterns persist over time.
No doubt some of it is down to habit, but I wonder if it just comes back to what sort of work is on offer in each location, and how voters perceive things.
I wouldn’t really include Temora in that group of towns that you have mentioned, with its TCP less than 30% for Labor, but the others are not really that much different compared to other rural towns of similar size (no matter what the main employment source is or was). Cowra, Parkes and Young all showed similar levels of Labor support in the last election.
Gundagai is the real outlier showing levels of Labor support up there with Wagga around 50%. Bringing it’s near neighbours Tumut and Tumbarumba back into Riverina this time (both with around that same level of Labor support) might suggest that the Timber Industry plays some role in increased Labor voting.
I guess if you can survive of more than the scaps of the landed gentry you might vote for someone other than the Nationals
Expect big swings to the Nats in Tumut and Tumbarumba. Labor will run dead and won’t campaign. Big swings in the election after every time these towns have been redistributed. Probably will be swings around Yass as well but not as much as the Snowy Valleys Shire.
Yes Labor will concentrate on Eden Monaro
Interesting to see Goulburn vote here
This seat could go either way.
@Darth Vader March 28, 2025 at 12:56 pm
Is there any reason you’re saying this could be 50-50 btw the Teal and Nationals?
I’ve had my suspicions that the Teal could have an outside chance here (and Berowra), but I’ve yet to find any information to help back up this gut feeling.
Sometimes I’ve thought that in country towns where there’s a history of a reasonable Labor vote (perhaps because it was a railway town or similar), that fact means that it’s culturally acceptable to vote Labor in a way it isn’t in many country towns, even if the original reason for the Labor vote has long since gone. (The most striking example is Barcaldine, which votes Labor more often than not to this day, although they narrowly lost it in 2022).
There was a time when agricultural workers formed enough of a voting base to make Labor competitive in some rural seats (Maranoa was a Labor seat for much of the first half of the twentieth century, for instance). In NSW some of those seats stayed Labor for decades longer off the back of personal votes established in an earlier era; Burrinjuck remained a Labor seat through the Sheahans (father and son) as late as 1988.
@BT – I agree with your take on the Labor vote, although I suspect it might be less about party and more about being known locally. If your family has been in an area for ages, and is well known for pitching in at clubs and local events, then I suspect many people will respect you on that basis, even if they don’t agree with all of your party’s policies.
As such, if a politician turns up and is seen to work hard in the way they did before becoming a politician, then I think the feeling is “we’re unlikely to get anyone startlingly better, so we’ll stick with what we know.”
This frame of mind is part of why so many of the larger seats don’t swing much unless either a government does some really bad stuff, or the candidate themselves are caught in a scandal.
Considering redistribution dragging Riverina into Yass and the amount of Independents running this election, I wonder what are the chances for any of the independents (particularly Jenny Rolfe, the teal) have at gaining the seat.
I’d say Nationals retain. Yass and Snowy Valleys’ population is very small compared to the rest of the seat which is solidly National.