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@np it’s got high rentsl stress low mortgage stress and moderate household stress. That means the greens and coalition should benefit here. The low mortgage stres likely because of the wealthier parts being able to afford their mortgage means interest rates won’t help labor here. Current 3cp is 30.92 green, 35.63 Nat, 33.45 lab. A mere shift of 1250 votes t from lab>grn will force them out. That’s before the nats strip votes off them for incumbency and col. Grn votes here split 80/20 to labor. Higher than the normal rate. I keep saying it but a liberal candidate would undoubtedly strip enough votes from labor to force them out. Greens votes may then split even better to the libs and even better for labor. As in 2010 lib Nat combined took 25%. If the nats or even better the libs can get into a contest with the greens they would get a the majority of the centre right votes that flow to labor and hopefully a fairly good split from labor. In my opinion Elliot’s days are numbered as are labor’s. if the combined grn/lab primary drops below 50% coalition is in a good chance. If lib runs they will likely win against a grn opponent. Nats likely can’t beat labor Nat v grn very interesting
@Watson Watch I don’t think they’re “pining for the fjords”, but rather they just aren’t voting Nationals except in the rural areas. But they’re still there, as evident by Tweed being a Nationals seat (and having been a Nationals seat since 2007).
The Nationals have a candidate pre-selected in Richmond.
https://www.nswnationals.org.au/kimberly-hone/
Yea same same candidate as last Richmond added to list of seats with the same candidates as last time7