Richmond – Australia 2025

The Greens will most likely overtake in the primary in first place however, who makes it in second will determine weather Labor holds on or if the Greens win here.

@SpaceFish I don’t think so. I think Nationals first, Labor second, Greens third, Labor elected on Greens preferences but probably a swing back to the Nationals just as a correction from last time when there was a shit candidate and when the Liberal Democrats took away lots of Nationals votes (which ended up going back to the Nationals on preferences).

@spacefish if greens are finishing first nats are second. Nats will never be pushed out of the 2cp. The only exception is if the libs run.

@Np I can’t see Elliot being reelected unless the greens lose votes. If the Libs run in addition to the nats I think Elliot is finished.

@Darth Vader I live three seats up from here (Fadden) and grew up three seats down from here (Lyne) and I can tell you:

1. I doubt the Greens will get over the line because they are too weak outside Byron Bay and the hippie towns.
2. I doubt the Liberals or Nationals will win this time.

This leaves Justine Elliot as the only option. Labor retain, but with the Nationals in second. As you stated, it’s impossible for the Coalition to be pushed out of the TCP even if it’s only a Byron Shire seat because the Nationals outperform Labor everywhere, even in Byron, on primary votes.

Also, people who vote Labor won’t just vote for the Coalition just because the candidate campaigns in blue not dark green. Yes this area would be suited for a Liberal more than a National nowadays but still it won’t change votes.

I think the greens and nationals will be in the 2pp, but the greens will suffer the ‘Fannie Bay Effect’ where Labor preferences don’t flow as strongly as they should and so the nationals may win.

@Darcy look I’m not writing of a Nationals win but I just don’t see it happening unfortunately. Mark my words though the Greens won’t win this especially after all they did about Palestine.

In fact the NT Greens will go back to being irrelevant in 2028, it’s just that Labor wasn’t Labor in 2024 under Eva Lawler. But Eva Lawler saved Labor from doing even worse in other seats but either way it’s a lose-lose situation (under Fyles the CLP might’ve regained Daly but under Fyles Labor would also have Nightcliff still and would be in the TCP in Braitling and Fannie Bay). If Eva Lawler actually made herself to look like she was actually Labor instead of Labor in name only then Labor would’ve won Fannie Bay and Nightcliff and finished second in Braitling. The CLP had a broad appeal of moderates and voters affected by crime and COL plus Labor was getting old so the CLP won in a landslide.

Fun Fact, i read this is the Least Muslim seat in the nation. Also weirdly Wilsons Creek in this electorate has Judaism as the largest religion and Hebrew as the most common language spoken after English for some reason which i have no explanation.

@Nimalan yep that’s true it’s right near Mullumbimby and it’s a Greens booth too. Not for long…

Wilsons Creek is probably best known for Crystal Castle & Shambhala Gardens which is a tourist attraction.

According to the 2021 census, 5.2% of the town is Jewish, 2.4% of residents were born in Israel and 4.7% speak Hebrew at home, so the Jews here are clearly almost all Israelis not Europeans. Why the town is so Jewish I have absolutely no idea.

The 10.2% of people who voted Labor last time would be mostly Jewish I think. Same goes for the 11.9% who voted for either One Nation, the Liberal Democrats or the Nationals.

@np I certainly don’t won’t the nats to win it, but I think it’s possible. It will definitely be a good seat on election night.

Whatever you think politically of the teals and greens, the are certainly amazing for pseph nerds like us.

@ Nether Portal
Yeah i dont know why some Israelis went to settle in that town.

I expect the Nationals to come first on primaries this time. This is because the anti-Morrison and anti-LNP Government factors are gone. Also, the Liberal Democrats were first on the ballot and voters wanted to vote for the Coalition but voted for LDP by mistake. LDP is now Libertarians and that would lessen the confusion.

Vaccine hesitancy might’ve bolstered the LDP, UAP, ONP and IMO vote last time. I’d say it’s less of a political issue now and the combined vote will decline.

I heard the Greens from SE Queensland were going to cross the border to help campaign for Mandy Nolan. I suspect that following the QLD state election results, they’ll be back on the defensive in their QLD federal seats.

Totally ridiculous and erroneous stats from @NP there
More Japanese and Argentinians in Byron shire than Israelis, overwhelmingly anglo like most rural areas but more migrants than average, mostly Europeans, for regional NSW, one of most irreligious electorates in the country (58%), particularly for rural/regional NSW.
Byron shire stats says 0.3% claim Jewish ancestry, almost as many claim Lebanese, close to twice that are other Middle eastern peoples. Mullum itself 0.8%, or 33 people, claimed Jewish ancestry.
Even less in Tweed and Ballina shires, 0.1% claim Jewish ancestry.
Not that it should it make any difference for anyone who is against indiscriminate bombing, shooting and starving civilian populations or war crimes, as adjudicated by international bodies like the ICC and ICJ

Pretty standard for embittered anti-Greens boomers it seems is to just make stuff up
Incredible in how nonsense can be posted when it is so easy to check

@Votante yeah the Gold Coast Greens are campaigning south of the border. The Greens can’t win Tweed Heads though so the campaign would be to concentrate the progressive and hippie votes in the Byron Shire.

Is there a such thing as peak Green? The Green vote may not necessarily go up and up indefinitely.

Nether Portal and Darth Vader,
I do mean National first place just wrote the wrong party lol. Still I think the Greens have a shot.

Votante,
There is a possibility were the Nationals improve, Greens stay the same but Labor goes backwards enough for the Greens to get second place.

@Votante yes I think eventually it’ll collapse now that the Greens are just becoming the woke activist party of the city. A lot of hippies don’t care about Palestine or pronouns or gender-neutral toilets they just care about climate and marijuana and lean more socially progressive but not woke. Some hippies are even anti-vax or at least anti-COVID vax. Anyway Byron Bay is full of elites from the city nowadays so it isn’t as hippie as it used to be but the surrounding towns still are.

I think that Elliot does have a chance of losing if libs are on the ballot. In the same way I think labor could win Bullwinkel if the nats make the 2cp instead of the Libs. In Bullwinkel if it’s a lib v lab battle libs should win easily on strong nats preferences. The other way around and lib preferences especially from the urban parts of Perth could leak and elect lab. Here I think a lib candidate could draw enough of the centrist vote away from labor to make it maybe a lib v grn battle that the Libs would likely win. In a battle vs the nats Elliot may hold out. But he’d personal vote is gonna be the only thing keeping her in office. I think she is gone in 2028 if she survives this time around and after she goes labor will never win this seat again.

@Darth Vader I don’t see why you think people would vote for one Coalition party but not the other.

The state seat of Tweed is a Nationals seat so clearly they’re happy to vote National. The Tweed Shire Council has elected several Liberal councillors too so they’re clearly happy to vote Liberal too. Justine Elliot just has a personal vote and Richmond also takes in places where the Greens poll well and that’s what elects Labor.

Bullwinkel will go to the Liberals and Richmond will stay with Labor unless the Fannie Bay effect comes into play.

As for if Labor will win this again if they lose, it depends if Tweed Heads continues to be a swing area or not. Page is a seat Labor aren’t competitive in anymore because Casino, Grafton and Lismore solidified for the Nationals. The Nationals TPP in Casino in 2007 was 48.2% but in 2022 it was 69.1%. So since 2007, the Casino booth has swung +20.9% to the Nationals and the Nationals now win it on first preferences.

@Nether Portal, it is well known that Nats preferences leak away from Liberal candidates. I have scrutinered in WA and seen voting slips with the number 1 preference for the National candidate and the Liberal candidate last, behind an ALP and a Green candidate. The old bush socialist mind set of the Nats is not far removed from the philosophy of the traditional ALP.

Agree that the Libs should take Bullwinkel as the Nationals primary vote will be relatively small.

@NP the liberals are more centrist as are labor when compared to the Greens and the Nats who are at the far end of either side of politics and n the absence of the liberal party the labor is the only centre party. Elliot does not control even a third of the vote and if the libs made the 2cp they would get the majority of the nats and the conservative vote as labor take the majority of the progressive vote. labor currently have a monopoly on the centrist vote and as we saw at the last election sometimes the nats candidates can be a bit off putting to non conservative voters in the same way the libs should have won lyons in 2019. besides it couldnt hurt to run a liberal candidate in addition to the nats as with FPV any vote that would have otherwise gone to the other will come back through preferences.

The demographic change shifts Richmond away from the coalition which every party contests.
Re Page…. this strength ing for the Nats is due to Mr Hogan developing a personal vote.
The fact that Janelle Saffin is the state mp for Lismore removes a strong candidate against him

@mick she lost the seat to Hogan

And like Elliot is getting old and will soon retire from state politics.

For prak Green – Denison/ Clark is a good place to look. Discounting Wilkie since 2010 but at state and senate level the Greens seem to have a maximum vote of 25- 27% and can’t get beyond that. There may be not much more upside in Richmond though they could win if the ALP fall to third. Both Libs and Nats running are needed for the coalition to maximise their vote. Looking at both Lib Dem votes and senate , there seem to be Liberal voters who draw the line at the Nats.

Sorry – ‘peak Green’

It is the type of seat that if voters see the Nats they see Barnaby Joyce and Matt Canavan and they turn away. As for Tweed voting Nat, it is both an historical hangover and the fact they would lose the seat under OPV. At some stage the Libs might just have to bite the bullet and run in both Tweed and Richmond. Port Macquarie and Lyne as well for that matter.

@redistributed i think you meant lose the seat under FPV?

@Mick I used to live on the Mid North Coast. I don’t think it’s just from Kevin Hogan but rather the fact that Labor neglected the residents of Grafton to focus on the cities. On the state level it’s a Nationals seat too.

Yes the Liberals are more centrist than the Nationals but in NSW both parties are moderate anyways so it’s not a huge difference.

Also very few Nationals voters put Labor above the Liberals. Nationals preferences usually flow 80-85% to the Liberals.

the other thing about running a liberal candidate is if labor are removed from the 2cp a centrist liberal would easil capture that centrist vote instead of having the vote splinter along left and right in a nat vs grn contest

The liberals would likely strip enough votes off labor forcing them out of the 2cp and forcing a matchup against the greens. Which I think they would win.

John
Under optional preferential voting, there would be a very high risk of the Coalition losing Tweed as the amount of leakage would be much much higher than under full preferential voting.

On Nats preferences not going to the Libs, there would be some degree of leakage from those that voted Nats 1. However, it would seem that there would be a higher leakage rate from those who voted One Nation 1 Nats 2. Unless you saw the votes being counted, it is hard to know how much that would be.

Nether Portal,
If you lived on the NSW Mid North Coast, you should be aware that Grafton is in the Northern Rivers, not the Mid North Coast.
As someone who grew up near Grafton, I am well aware that it is the National Party who ignored Grafton, or more specifically, the residents of Grafton and the Clarence Valley.

In 2007, the Federal Coalition Government wanted to dam the Clarence, and other Northern Rivers, to provide an additional water supply to Brisbane. The plan was opposed by residents of Grafton and surrounding parts of the Clarence Valley. Labor stood up for the residents of Grafton while the National Party ignored them. Check out the Page booth results for 2007. The biggest swings to Labor were in the booths along the Clarence River.

1990 – NSW Coalition Government wanted to build a Paper Pulp mill in Graton against the wishes of the local residents. The main backer of the scheme was Ian Causley, the National Party MP for Clarence. Labor stood with the residents of Grafton and won the seat of Page.

In the late 1970s, CSR (Colonial Sugar Refineries) announced that they intended to close the 3 sugar mills on the NSW Northern Rivers, thus ending the NSW sugar cane industry. The NSW cane farmers approached Doug Anthony, the Member for Richmond and Deputy Prime Minister, for assistance. In true National Party style, he said “I can’t do anything about that”.
The cane farmers then approached Don Day, the Labor Member for Casino, which included the Clarence Valley downstream of Grafton. Don Day negotiated a deal where the cane growers would take over the running of the sugar mills. In 1978, Don Day was reelected with a swing towards him.

@redistributed that is why libs and bats have designated seats and won’t run against the other in those seats the exception being port Macquarie because nats claimed it as one of theirs but the member jumped ship mid term to the libs

For the Greens to win, they’ll need to beat Labor on the 3PP and also the margin between the Greens and Nationals shouldn’t be too great.

How come the Liberals run on the South Coast in Eden-Monaro and Gilmore, but Nationals run on the North Coast in Richmond, Page, Lyne, Cowper?

@Votante I agree the Liberals should run here instead of the Nationals for demographic and geographic reasons but to answer your question: history.

The North Coast has always been a very strong region for the National Party and its predecessors. It was always the Nationals who ran in those seats. Sir Earl Page was the member for Cowper. Lyne and Page are rural seats while Cowper is more urban as it includes two cities with over 50,000 people (Coffs Harbour and most of Port Macquarie).

On the state level the Liberals currently only run in Port Macquarie on the North Coast but should probably give Ballina a go. They should also run in Coffs Harbour and Tweed when the Nationals MPs there retire.

Gilmore is more urban and i doubt the Nats would win. Eden-Monsro on the other hand the Nats did consider running for at one point. On the north coast the divisions are more rural and regional so the Nats run there and i guess the libs stay out of it to keep the harmony. Here in Richmond the Libs should definitely be running because the Nats have been trying to get it back for 20 years and have failed repeatedly. I think it’s only a matter of time before they hand over Ballina but that is probably a long way off they haven’t tried to win it from opposition so they may have a go. They won’t relinquish Tweed either until it becomes unwinnable because of OPV they have designated seats and this is one that they won’t need until they have no hope of winning. If they bring back FPV the Libs will likely throw their hat in the ring when the Nats lose them.

Would swing voters and moderates in Richmond be more likely to vote for a coalition party if it were Liberals instead of Nationals?

@John, the South Coast electorates of Gilmore and Eden-Monaro don’t have many large population centres except for Nowra, Queanbeyan and Goulburn. The population is more decentralised with towns and hamlets. Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie and Tweed Heads further north are much larger centres. The populations in the north are more concentrated in a dozen or so cities.

@votante because we are talking centrist vote. People are obviously voting Labor and greens. Labor is the only centre party so they capture the centrist vote. The right vote national and the left greens. The liberals could potentially steal some of that centre vote which would force Labor out of the 2cp and then they would capture alot more of that centre vote from people not wanting the nats or greens. Then the nats votes would overwhelmingly favour them. So that gives them a greater chance of winning. We have seen that the libs vs green in city Brisbane only narrowly elected the greens in an off year for the coalition so in an election where Labor is tipped to go backwards the libs could potentially win the seat and likely hold it.

I often feel there are many Nats that are more centrists than some in the Liberals are like Darren Chester, Kevin Hogan and Michael McCormack. They are often more pragmatic than Alex Antic/Dutton etc so i think it depends on the candidate than which brand of the Coalition. The Victorian Nats are often more moderate than people such as Bev Macarthur, Renee Heath, Richard Riordan, Moira Deeming.

@nimalan I’m obviously talking a moderate liberal. The last nat candidate hare was way conservative

Yeah I’m still confused why a moderate Liberal would be different to a moderate National (something that does exist in NSW).

@np yea well it looks like the Nats have chosen the same candidate. so come on libs get a cnadidate here the seat is here for the taking