To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
The Greens will most likely overtake in the primary in first place however, who makes it in second will determine weather Labor holds on or if the Greens win here.
@SpaceFish I don’t think so. I think Nationals first, Labor second, Greens third, Labor elected on Greens preferences but probably a swing back to the Nationals just as a correction from last time when there was a shit candidate and when the Liberal Democrats took away lots of Nationals votes (which ended up going back to the Nationals on preferences).
@spacefish if greens are finishing first nats are second. Nats will never be pushed out of the 2cp. The only exception is if the libs run.
@Np I can’t see Elliot being reelected unless the greens lose votes. If the Libs run in addition to the nats I think Elliot is finished.
@Darth Vader I live three seats up from here (Fadden) and grew up three seats down from here (Lyne) and I can tell you:
1. I doubt the Greens will get over the line because they are too weak outside Byron Bay and the hippie towns.
2. I doubt the Liberals or Nationals will win this time.
This leaves Justine Elliot as the only option. Labor retain, but with the Nationals in second. As you stated, it’s impossible for the Coalition to be pushed out of the TCP even if it’s only a Byron Shire seat because the Nationals outperform Labor everywhere, even in Byron, on primary votes.
Also, people who vote Labor won’t just vote for the Coalition just because the candidate campaigns in blue not dark green. Yes this area would be suited for a Liberal more than a National nowadays but still it won’t change votes.
I think the greens and nationals will be in the 2pp, but the greens will suffer the ‘Fannie Bay Effect’ where Labor preferences don’t flow as strongly as they should and so the nationals may win.
@Darcy look I’m not writing of a Nationals win but I just don’t see it happening unfortunately. Mark my words though the Greens won’t win this especially after all they did about Palestine.
In fact the NT Greens will go back to being irrelevant in 2028, it’s just that Labor wasn’t Labor in 2024 under Eva Lawler. But Eva Lawler saved Labor from doing even worse in other seats but either way it’s a lose-lose situation (under Fyles the CLP might’ve regained Daly but under Fyles Labor would also have Nightcliff still and would be in the TCP in Braitling and Fannie Bay). If Eva Lawler actually made herself to look like she was actually Labor instead of Labor in name only then Labor would’ve won Fannie Bay and Nightcliff and finished second in Braitling. The CLP had a broad appeal of moderates and voters affected by crime and COL plus Labor was getting old so the CLP won in a landslide.
Fun Fact, i read this is the Least Muslim seat in the nation. Also weirdly Wilsons Creek in this electorate has Judaism as the largest religion and Hebrew as the most common language spoken after English for some reason which i have no explanation.
@Nimalan yep that’s true it’s right near Mullumbimby and it’s a Greens booth too. Not for long…
Wilsons Creek is probably best known for Crystal Castle & Shambhala Gardens which is a tourist attraction.
According to the 2021 census, 5.2% of the town is Jewish, 2.4% of residents were born in Israel and 4.7% speak Hebrew at home, so the Jews here are clearly almost all Israelis not Europeans. Why the town is so Jewish I have absolutely no idea.
The 10.2% of people who voted Labor last time would be mostly Jewish I think. Same goes for the 11.9% who voted for either One Nation, the Liberal Democrats or the Nationals.
@np I certainly don’t won’t the nats to win it, but I think it’s possible. It will definitely be a good seat on election night.
Whatever you think politically of the teals and greens, the are certainly amazing for pseph nerds like us.
@ Nether Portal
Yeah i dont know why some Israelis went to settle in that town.
I expect the Nationals to come first on primaries this time. This is because the anti-Morrison and anti-LNP Government factors are gone. Also, the Liberal Democrats were first on the ballot and voters wanted to vote for the Coalition but voted for LDP by mistake. LDP is now Libertarians and that would lessen the confusion.
Vaccine hesitancy might’ve bolstered the LDP, UAP, ONP and IMO vote last time. I’d say it’s less of a political issue now and the combined vote will decline.
I heard the Greens from SE Queensland were going to cross the border to help campaign for Mandy Nolan. I suspect that following the QLD state election results, they’ll be back on the defensive in their QLD federal seats.