Rankin – Australia 2025

I think Parr of the reason Biden won in 2020 was because he did most campaigning from his basement because of covid. But Tbh I think losing 2020 was a blessing for trump. He came back stronger then in 2016 and he can only have 2 terms anyway. If he had won 2024 Wed be stuck with pence vs probably a decent Democrat who’d or only win for 2 terms.now the republicans have the ball they can turn it into a 3 termer.

It annoys me when people say that “the elite” are controlling everyone so we should vote for Trump and Elon Musk when they’re both billionaires.

Back to Rankin, hopefully I should be able to calculate the results soon.

@Rankin by “The elite” we are referring to people like actors and those who don’t create wealth only live at the top on the highest salaries. People like trump aren’t considered the elite their considered wealthy but they build that wealth from companies that employ people and provide jobs for the common folk. There is a fine line between being wealthy and being part of the elite.

Here is the state level TPP here as of 2024:

* Labor: 66.7%
* LNP: 33.3%

Labor’s TPP at the 2024 state election in Rankin was 7.6% higher than it was at the 2022 state election.

Note that this excludes postals from outside the Woodridge electorate.

U mean federal. What’s the swing compared to 2020 state results

@Darth Vader yes I mean the last state election. I haven’t calculated 2020 results, just 2024 ones. So far I’ve calculated Leichhardt (though I realised I forgot the Mulgrave booths and there is no finalised TPP there yet so I need to recalculate that), Petrie, Rankin and Ryan. Up next will be Brisbane which I’ll do tonight. I’m doing urban seats first, then regional seats.

@np did you mean to say federal again? Lol

@John yes I messed up twice.

According to The Poll Bludger, this seat contains:

* 70% of Algester
* 61% of Springwood
* 33% of Stretton
* 35% of Waterford
* 100% of Woodridge

Before posting the link to my maps for the full comparison of federal and state electorates in Queensland and their voting trends, I would like to thank Nimalan for helping by listing each booth so I knew which ones I was adding up.

This is a map of all 30 federal electoral divisions in Queensland, shaded according to the party that would have won them on state results: https://jmp.sh/sxteAJpi

Key points:

Seats:
* LNP: 18 (Bowman, Capricornia, Dawson, Fadden, Fairfax, Fisher, Flynn, Forde, Groom, Herbert, Hinkler, Leichhardt, Maranoa, McPherson, Moncrieff, Wide Bay, Wright)
* Labor: 12 (Blair, Bonner, Brisbane, Dickson, Griffith, Lilley, Longman, Moreton, Oxley, Petrie, Rankin, Ryan)
* KAP: 1 (Kennedy)
* Greens: 0

Safest and most marginal seats (with margins):
* Safest LNP seat: Maranoa (23.0% LNP)
* Most marginal LNP seat: Forde (0.3% LNP)
* Safest Labor seat: Rankin (16.7% ALP)
* Most marginal Labor seat: Ryan (1.3% ALP)

Difference between federal and state TPP/TCP by seat (* = combined TPP/TCP so not as reliable): https://jmp.sh/bqyLbuys

Rankin had the highest difference between the state and federal Labor TPP, with Labor’s TPP there at the 2024 state election being 7.6% higher than it was at the 2022 federal election. The opposite was Fadden, where Labor’s TPP at the 2024 state election was 4.0% lower than it was at the 2022 federal election.

Interestingly while the LNP’s safest seat on both the federal and state level is Maranoa, Labor’s is different on each level. Federally their safest seat is Oxley but on the state level their safest seat is Rankin.

Differences (Labor, state > federal):
* Biggest difference: Rankin (+7.6%)
* Smallest difference: (–4.0%)

Statewide TPP:
* LNP (federal): 54.0%
* LNP (state): 53.8%
* Labor (federal): 46.0%
* Labor (state): 46.2%

Queensland Labor really only did 0.2% better statewide at the 2024 state election than federal Labor did in Queensland at the 2022 federal election, but that difference was very concentrated in Brisbane. However, what balanced it out was the Gold Coast which did the opposite and voted more for the LNP on the state level than federally.

The LNP did better in the state level in the affluent CBD seats in Brisbane as well as in all of the Gold Coast plus the seats of Dawson, Kennedy and Maranoa in regional Queensland. In the mixed seats of Blair, Groom and Leichhardt the LNP also did slightly better on the state level. So clearly the northern and western parts of Queensland preferred the state LNP. I can’t say why Maranoa voted slightly more LNP on the state level than federally but the North Queensland thing can be explained by David Crisafulli having grown up in Ingham, plus Labor had a poor and delayed candidate in Whitsunday plus the LNP had a very good performance in Mackay which helped the LNP in Dawson. Crime and the loss of Shayne Neumann’s why they did better in Blair on the state level, being more moderate helped the LNP on the state level in Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan despite them all going Labor (the Greens hold them federally) and the moderate thing plus personal votes helps on the Gold Coast.

id be interested to see how close the libs can get in 2025 if the redistribution is right after the election, the libs may be within a whisker of toppling chalmers in 2028 especially if labor is still in govt in minority

@John I doubt the sitting Treasurer would be unseated in a safe Labor seat that is working-class and very ethnic.

@NP I bet they ca n give a scare though

I agree with Nether Portal, this area has the some of the lowest property prices in SEQ each time there is a major conflict overseas i expect a lot of refugees to be resettled here and i expect the poor ethnic population (especially Muslims) to keep growing here. Unlike more middle class ethnic people these people have no economic reason to vote Liberal so it is the same as we discussed in the Hawthorn thread so Libs will need to talk about LGBT issues/Abortion etc to keep the people here interested. While Brisbane seats are more mixed, a lot of this seat includes areas with high welfare dependency and is crime ridden.

@Darth Vader genuine question, are you and @John the same person or just coincidentally type the same and have similar views? Just curious.

@Nimalan even then I don’t think it’ll work. Labor campaigned on being pro-abortion and had an appalling scare campaign against the LNP about abortion yet they still won these seats (the swings were because of the crime crisis).

Being like the DLP doesn’t really help the Liberals anywhere as these seats aren’t as DLP as they used to be. Furthermore, winning the wrong seats will alienate voters and still may not see the party win government just like a sports team not winning the right games will get them to have a bad season or how studying the wrong stuff will make you fail your exams.

What the party really needs is a leader with a broad appeal. In NSW they had that which is why they won ethnic seats and affluent seats and thus government.

@ Nether Portal
I am not supporter of the Libs being like the DLP or the Labor party being like the Teals. However, that is is a view that nevertheless is out there. I think in Victoria, there is a good chance the Libs will become “DLP Lite if Pesutto is removed and not care about economic issues. Have a look at the Hawthorn thread and let me know what you think i posted something similar.

the reason i put this as a possible pickup not in 2025 but in 2028 is because the redistribution will likely see Rankin expand into the logan parts of forde whihc in 2019 were quite favouraable towards the Liberals. the logan river being an ideal location for the boundary. and could also see it lose some or all of its parts of brisbsane to oxley or moreton with the logan and gateway motorways being an ideal boundary. the reml of stron alp booths in exchange for weak alp/moderate liberal booths may tip the balance closer to their favour. chalmers currently sits on a 9%. id imagine hell lose around 4% in 2025 maybe more. so depending on who wins this election and how he next govt performs chalmers could well lose rankin in my opinion.