Incumbent Senators
| Term due to expire 2025 | Term due to expire 2028 |
| Nita Green (Labor) | Penny Allman-Payne (Greens) |
| Susan McDonald (Liberal National) | Matt Canavan (Liberal National) |
| Gerard Rennick (Independent)1 | Anthony Chisholm (Labor) |
| Malcolm Roberts (One Nation) | Pauline Hanson (One Nation) |
| Paul Scarr (Liberal National) | James McGrath (Liberal National) |
| Larissa Waters (Greens) | Murray Watt (Labor) |
1Gerard Rennick resigned from the Liberal National Party on 25 August 2024 to become an independent.
History
For the vast majority of the time since proportional representation was introduced, Queensland has had a majority of Senators from right-wing parties such as the Liberals, Nationals, DLP and One Nation. Indeed, the ALP maintained a consistent number of senators for most of this period, holding four Queensland senators continuously from 1951 to 1984. They held a fifth seat from the 1984 election until 1990, when they fell back to four seats. They gained a fifth again in 2007.
From 1951 until the 1964 election, Queensland had four ALP senators, four Liberal senators and two Country Party senators. The 1964 election saw the Liberals lose a seat to the Democratic Labor Party candidate (and ex-Premier) Vince Gair. They won a second seat in 1967, which resulted in the Liberals, Country Party and DLP each holding two senate seats in Queensland, alongside four ALP senators. The 1970 election maintained the status quo.
The 1974 double dissolution saw the DLP lose both their seats, with the Liberal and Country parties each winning a third seat. The Queensland delegation remained steady at four ALP and three for each of the coalition parties until 1980, when the National Country Party lost one of their three seats to the Democrats. The 1980 election was the first time that the Coalition parties ran separate Senate tickets in Queensland, after running jointly for the previous thirty years. The 1983 double dissolution saw the Nationals win back a third seat at the expense of the Liberals, who by this point in time had begun to run on separate tickets. Throughout the 1980s the Nationals held more Senate seats in Queensland than the Liberals.
The 1984 election saw an enlargement in the Senate, with the ALP winning a fifth Senate seat for the first time and the Nationals electing a fourth senator. This balance of five ALP, four Nationals, two Liberals and a Democrat was maintained at the 1987 double dissolution election.
The 1990 election saw the Liberals overtake the Nationals. After the 1987 double dissolution the Senate had decided that two ALP, two Liberal and two National senators would have six-year terms, despite the fact that the Liberals had won half the number of seats of either other party. This gave them a boost in 1990, as they won two seats to the Nationals one, while not having any incumbents up for election. In practice this meant that the Liberals won two seats, one off the ALP and the other off the Nationals. The ALP was reduced back to four seats, and the Coalition again gained a majority of Queensland senate seats.
The 1993 election saw the Democrats win a second Queensland seat, at the expense of the Nationals. This produced a result of four each for the ALP and Liberal Party and two each for the Nationals and Democrats.
The 1993 election result was maintained in 1996, but in 1998 the Nationals lost one of their two seats to One Nation. In 2001 there were again no changes, and in 2004 the Nationals and Liberals each gained a seat, with One Nation losing their seat and one of the two Democrats being defeated. The 2007 election saw the defeat of the last remaining Democrat, producing an overall result of five senators each for the Labor and Liberal parties and two Nationals senators.
In 2010, the LNP went in to the election with four incumbent senators, and retained three of those seats. Labor maintained their two seats, and the Greens’ Larissa Waters won the first ever Greens Senate seat in Queensland.
In 2013, the LNP retained their three sitting senators, while Labor lost one of their three seats to Glenn Lazarus, running for the Palmer United Party.
At the 2016 double dissolution election, Labor retained their four seats and the Greens retained their one seat. Lazarus was defeated, running on his own independent ticket, and the LNP lost their sixth seat, with both seats going to One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts.
Roberts was removed from his seat in 2017 due to his possession of British citizenship when he was elected in 2016. He was replaced by third One Nation candidate Fraser Anning. He fell out with One Nation immediately and served out his term as an independent and as a member of a party he founded.
At the 2019 election, the Liberal National Party retained their two seats and gained a third (for a total of six) while Labor retained only one seat (for a total of three). The Greens retained their seat and Malcolm Roberts regained his seat from Fraser Anning.
At the 2022 election, the Greens won a second seat in addition to Larissa Waters for the first time, taking a seat away from the LNP.
| Group | Votes | % | Swing | Quota |
| Liberal National | 1,061,638 | 35.2 | -3.7 | 2.4658 |
| Labor | 744,212 | 24.7 | +2.1 | 1.7285 |
| Greens | 373,460 | 12.4 | +2.5 | 0.8674 |
| One Nation | 222,925 | 7.4 | -2.9 | 0.5178 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 161,899 | 5.4 | +3.6 | 0.3760 |
| United Australia | 126,343 | 4.2 | +0.7 | 0.2934 |
| Liberal Democrats | 75,158 | 2.5 | +1.7 | 0.1746 |
| Animal Justice | 38,765 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0900 |
| Indigenous – Aboriginal Party | 32,841 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 0.0763 |
| Great Australian Party | 24,262 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.0564 |
| Sustainable Australia | 19,146 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.0445 |
| Values Party | 18,194 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.0423 |
| Others | 115,025 | 3.8 | 0.2672 | |
| Informal | 97,166 | 3.1 |
Preference flows
Three seats were won on primary votes: two for the Liberal National Party and one for Labor.
We can now fast forward to the last ten candidates contesting those last three seats:
- Penny Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9230 quotas
- Anthony Chisholm (ALP) – 0.7470
- Pauline Hanson (ON) – 0.5595
- Amanda Stoker (LNP) – 0.4909
- Bernard Bradley (LGC) – 0.4391
- Clive Palmer (UAP) – 0.3171
- Campbell Newman (LDP) – 0.1936
- Mackenzie Severns (AJP) – 0.1197
- Lionel Henaway (IAP) – 0.0975
- Jason Miles (GAP) – 0.0930
GAP preferences flowed most strongly to Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer, but generally scattered:
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9285
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.7503
- Hanson (ON) – 0.5865
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.4961
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.4470
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3353
- Newman (LDP) – 0.1983
- Severns (AJP) – 0.1288
- Henaway (IAP) – 0.1024
Indigenous-Aboriginal Party preferences flowed to the Greens, Legalise Cannabis, Animal Justice and Labor:
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9518
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.7648
- Hanson (ON) – 0.5865
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.5040
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.4636
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3425
- Newman (LDP) – 0.2008
- Severns (AJP) – 0.1451
Animal Justice preferences again favoured the Greens, bringing Allman-Payne closer to winning the fourth seat:
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9874
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.7813
- Hanson (ON) – 0.6073
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.5173
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.4926
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3578
- Newman (LDP) – 0.2053
Liberal Democrats preferences were most favourable to the LNP, but also helped One Nation, slightly narrowing the gap between One Nation and the LNP for sixth seat. Allman-Payne was also brought within just 32 votes of a quota.
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9999
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.8127
- Hanson (ON) – 0.6591
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.5853
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.5016
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3808
United Australia preferences pushed the Greens over quota to win the fourth seat, but mostly flowed to One Nation, pushing Hanson into fifth place:
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 1.0000
- Hanson (ON) – 0.8756
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.8529
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.6462
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.5360
Legalise Cannabis preferences scattered, slightly favouring Chisholm over Hanson but not by that much more than they flowed to Stoker:
- Hanson (ON) – 0.9957
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.9743
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.7197
Hanson and Chisholm both almost reached a full quota, but it didn’t matter since there were no preferences to distribute, and they were both elected with Stoker left as the last candidate excluded.
The final margin between Chisholm and Stoker was 0.2546 quotas.
- Labor
- Nita Green
- Corinne Mulholland
- Liberal National
- Ange Harper (Jacqui Lambie Network)
- Belinda Jones (Legalise Cannabis)
- Gerard Rennick (People First)
- Larissa Waters (Greens)
- Jim Willmott (Libertarian)
- Duke Wong (Independent)
Assessment
Queensland has generally produced the most right-wing results in Senate elections for a long time. The Coalition managed to win four seats in 2004. In 2013, the LNP won three seats along with Glenn Lazarus of the Palmer United Party. The 2016 double dissolution election saw five LNP senators plus two One Nation senators elected. And in 2019 the LNP and One Nation won four seats between them.
That means the right will be defending four seats in 2025, as they were in 2022, and opens up an opportunity for the left to pick up a third seat if Labor can win a second seat without displacing a Greens member.
This means Queensland will be a defensive state for the right. Usually they have only won four seats in strong elections such as 2004, 2013 and 2019. Current polling suggests they won’t be in a position to win those seats in 2025.
I wouldn’t say ONP is growing. Most of their MPs defect or quit during their first term. They might struggle to hold their QLD senate seat for reasons I gave in a previous post.
There’s more competition for minor, right-wing and populist or nationalist parties. There’s KAP, Trumpets of Patriots (formerly UAP), Libertarians and Family First among others. On top of that, Gerard Rennick is seeking reelection.
Trumpet of Patriots? Really?
How about these as alternatives:
Puppet of Palmers
Trombone of Nobodies
Oxy of Morons
Parodies of Elon
Maybe so but their vote share is growing. They are still along way off winning seats from the lnp though. Though they are more then likely to win seats in the upper house first same as the greens did
Last time ON and the UAP made a preference deal. Seeing Clive and Pauline have had a bit if a spat will there be a deal between ON and the Tromboners? The only reason Clive gets any votes at all is because he spends so much money. Without a deal there might be mutually assured destruction.
There is something so ridiculous this time that even money might not deliver anything. The other big elephant in the room for the right wing fringe is how many runs around the paddock Clive and Pauline have left in them. They are both about 70 – she looks pretty good, he looked unwell in yesterdays presser.
Thanks for the corrections. It is indeed called Trumpet of Patriots (TOP, or TP), but the media seem to be nicknaming it the MAGA Party. If we’re gonna use an abbreviation for the nickname (if it catches on) we should probably use MAGAP to avoid confusing it with the American movement.
@Marh One Nation without Pauline Hanson is nothing because they’ve built themself around a cult of personality for Hanson herself being supposedly a “typical Aussie”, and their voter base is just disaffected voters from across the spectrum who have become more conservative over time but may not necessarily tow the party line especially on issues like COVID-19.
But I do agree with @Darth Vader in that she will be still active in the party similar to how John Howard still helps campaign for the Coalition (he appeared on the 2023 NSW state election campaign, despite neither Scomo nor Dutton making an appearance.
For the points about the parties disagreeing, I agree that there are many disagreements in there but surely even just three parties (Libertarians, Family First and then a generic Reform UK/European radical right party.
As for whether the One Nation vote is growing or not, Australia is very different to what it was 15 or 20 years ago. 15 years ago was February 2010, back then the Greens didn’t hold any seats and the teals didn’t even exist. Climate wasn’t as big of an issue because we didn’t know as much about it as we do now (and now the majority of people support action on climate change and saying humans don’t contribute to it isn’t really , nor did we have same-sex marriage back then despite that now being something the vast majority of people support (and which is legal now).
Therefore the One Nation voters back then were different to the ones now. One Nation’s anti-mass immigration policies back then were targeted at Asians, now they’re targeted at Muslims, though they still hold anti-China and very pro-Israel views. But back then One Nation wanted to be closer with Russia under Vladimir Putin, now that isn’t the case.
*saying humans don’t contribute to climate change now isn’t really a common view anymore and it’s considered a myth, forgot to finish my sentence
I would suggest NP that the debate around climate change has not really shifted at all. Remember, 2007 was the Ruddslide where he called CC the “greatest moral challenge of our times”. I would also suggest we actually know less than we did then, because certain influential sections of the media basically refuse to countenance anything other than an extreme version of CC, rather than the much more nuanced and unsettled (yes I said it) version of actual scientists. In particular, there is still huge uncertainty about how much we are influencing the climate (that we ARE influencing it is beyond doubt), what the actual effects of the warming are and what affects reducing carbon emissions will actually have.
This is before we even get to say Bjorn Lomborg’s argument that it will be much cheaper to mitigate the effects than reduce emissions with the tech we currently have, or that the real debate is around energy production not emissions per se.
There are a lot of places in this argument between ‘World is going to end in 5 years’ and ‘It’s all a hoax’.
@NP, with Trump’s Administration plans for Ukraine seems to favour Putin with the exclusions of Ukraine and Europe in the recent US-Russia meeting with re-normalising relations and Trump claiming Zelenskyy started the war and called him a ‘dictator’, it did got me wondering where Dutton and the Libs will side as European Centre-Right is still sticking with the Traditional principles but most of the European Far-Right are parroting Trump/Putin narrative?
It matters little what acronym or abbreviation we use for the Collective of Posturers, they won’t exist three months from now.
TOP
What else can it stand for?
Suggestions?
Too Old Party
Take off Pants
Trumpet Of Patriots is easy to remember, and there’s a reference to Trump in there.
Labor seems to think Australians loathe Trump, perhaps female voters do, but Labor drained that wellspring in 2022, my opinion, there’s nothing left to draw.