Incumbent Senators
| Term due to expire 2025 | Term due to expire 2028 |
| Nita Green (Labor) | Penny Allman-Payne (Greens) |
| Susan McDonald (Liberal National) | Matt Canavan (Liberal National) |
| Gerard Rennick (Liberal National) | Anthony Chisholm (Labor) |
| Malcolm Roberts (One Nation) | Pauline Hanson (One Nation) |
| Paul Scarr (Liberal National) | James McGrath (Liberal National) |
| Larissa Waters (Greens) | Murray Watt (Labor) |
History
For the vast majority of the time since proportional representation was introduced, Queensland has had a majority of Senators from right-wing parties such as the Liberals, Nationals, DLP and One Nation. Indeed, the ALP maintained a consistent number of senators for most of this period, holding four Queensland senators continuously from 1951 to 1984. They held a fifth seat from the 1984 election until 1990, when they fell back to four seats. They gained a fifth again in 2007.
From 1951 until the 1964 election, Queensland had four ALP senators, four Liberal senators and two Country Party senators. The 1964 election saw the Liberals lose a seat to the Democratic Labor Party candidate (and ex-Premier) Vince Gair. They won a second seat in 1967, which resulted in the Liberals, Country Party and DLP each holding two senate seats in Queensland, alongside four ALP senators. The 1970 election maintained the status quo.
The 1974 double dissolution saw the DLP lose both their seats, with the Liberal and Country parties each winning a third seat. The Queensland delegation remained steady at four ALP and three for each of the coalition parties until 1980, when the National Country Party lost one of their three seats to the Democrats. The 1980 election was the first time that the Coalition parties ran separate Senate tickets in Queensland, after running jointly for the previous thirty years. The 1983 double dissolution saw the Nationals win back a third seat at the expense of the Liberals, who by this point in time had begun to run on separate tickets. Throughout the 1980s the Nationals held more Senate seats in Queensland than the Liberals.
The 1984 election saw an enlargement in the Senate, with the ALP winning a fifth Senate seat for the first time and the Nationals electing a fourth senator. This balance of five ALP, four Nationals, two Liberals and a Democrat was maintained at the 1987 double dissolution election.
The 1990 election saw the Liberals overtake the Nationals. After the 1987 double dissolution the Senate had decided that two ALP, two Liberal and two National senators would have six-year terms, despite the fact that the Liberals had won half the number of seats of either other party. This gave them a boost in 1990, as they won two seats to the Nationals one, while not having any incumbents up for election. In practice this meant that the Liberals won two seats, one off the ALP and the other off the Nationals. The ALP was reduced back to four seats, and the Coalition again gained a majority of Queensland senate seats.
The 1993 election saw the Democrats win a second Queensland seat, at the expense of the Nationals. This produced a result of four each for the ALP and Liberal Party and two each for the Nationals and Democrats.
The 1993 election result was maintained in 1996, but in 1998 the Nationals lost one of their two seats to One Nation. In 2001 there were again no changes, and in 2004 the Nationals and Liberals each gained a seat, with One Nation losing their seat and one of the two Democrats being defeated. The 2007 election saw the defeat of the last remaining Democrat, producing an overall result of five senators each for the Labor and Liberal parties and two Nationals senators.
In 2010, the LNP went in to the election with four incumbent senators, and retained three of those seats. Labor maintained their two seats, and the Greens’ Larissa Waters won the first ever Greens Senate seat in Queensland.
In 2013, the LNP retained their three sitting senators, while Labor lost one of their three seats to Glenn Lazarus, running for the Palmer United Party.
At the 2016 double dissolution election, Labor retained their four seats and the Greens retained their one seat. Lazarus was defeated, running on his own independent ticket, and the LNP lost their sixth seat, with both seats going to One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts.
Roberts was removed from his seat in 2017 due to his possession of British citizenship when he was elected in 2016. He was replaced by third One Nation candidate Fraser Anning. He fell out with One Nation immediately and served out his term as an independent and as a member of a party he founded.
At the 2019 election, the Liberal National Party retained their two seats and gained a third (for a total of six) while Labor retained only one seat (for a total of three). The Greens retained their seat and Malcolm Roberts regained his seat from Fraser Anning.
At the 2022 election, the Greens won a second seat in addition to Larissa Waters for the first time, taking a seat away from the LNP.
| Group | Votes | % | Swing | Quota |
| Liberal National | 1,061,638 | 35.2 | -3.7 | 2.4658 |
| Labor | 744,212 | 24.7 | +2.1 | 1.7285 |
| Greens | 373,460 | 12.4 | +2.5 | 0.8674 |
| One Nation | 222,925 | 7.4 | -2.9 | 0.5178 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 161,899 | 5.4 | +3.6 | 0.3760 |
| United Australia | 126,343 | 4.2 | +0.7 | 0.2934 |
| Liberal Democrats | 75,158 | 2.5 | +1.7 | 0.1746 |
| Animal Justice | 38,765 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0900 |
| Indigenous – Aboriginal Party | 32,841 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 0.0763 |
| Great Australian Party | 24,262 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.0564 |
| Sustainable Australia | 19,146 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.0445 |
| Values Party | 18,194 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.0423 |
| Others | 115,025 | 3.8 | 0.2672 | |
| Informal | 97,166 | 3.1 |
Preference flows
Three seats were won on primary votes: two for the Liberal National Party and one for Labor.
We can now fast forward to the last ten candidates contesting those last three seats:
- Penny Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9230 quotas
- Anthony Chisholm (ALP) – 0.7470
- Pauline Hanson (ON) – 0.5595
- Amanda Stoker (LNP) – 0.4909
- Bernard Bradley (LGC) – 0.4391
- Clive Palmer (UAP) – 0.3171
- Campbell Newman (LDP) – 0.1936
- Mackenzie Severns (AJP) – 0.1197
- Lionel Henaway (IAP) – 0.0975
- Jason Miles (GAP) – 0.0930
GAP preferences flowed most strongly to Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer, but generally scattered:
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9285
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.7503
- Hanson (ON) – 0.5865
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.4961
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.4470
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3353
- Newman (LDP) – 0.1983
- Severns (AJP) – 0.1288
- Henaway (IAP) – 0.1024
Indigenous-Aboriginal Party preferences flowed to the Greens, Legalise Cannabis, Animal Justice and Labor:
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9518
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.7648
- Hanson (ON) – 0.5865
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.5040
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.4636
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3425
- Newman (LDP) – 0.2008
- Severns (AJP) – 0.1451
Animal Justice preferences again favoured the Greens, bringing Allman-Payne closer to winning the fourth seat:
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9874
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.7813
- Hanson (ON) – 0.6073
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.5173
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.4926
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3578
- Newman (LDP) – 0.2053
Liberal Democrats preferences were most favourable to the LNP, but also helped One Nation, slightly narrowing the gap between One Nation and the LNP for sixth seat. Allman-Payne was also brought within just 32 votes of a quota.
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 0.9999
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.8127
- Hanson (ON) – 0.6591
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.5853
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.5016
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3808
United Australia preferences pushed the Greens over quota to win the fourth seat, but mostly flowed to One Nation, pushing Hanson into fifth place:
- Allman-Payne (GRN) – 1.0000
- Hanson (ON) – 0.8756
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.8529
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.6462
- Bradley (LGC) – 0.5360
Legalise Cannabis preferences scattered, slightly favouring Chisholm over Hanson but not by that much more than they flowed to Stoker:
- Hanson (ON) – 0.9957
- Chisholm (ALP) – 0.9743
- Stoker (LNP) – 0.7197
Hanson and Chisholm both almost reached a full quota, but it didn’t matter since there were no preferences to distribute, and they were both elected with Stoker left as the last candidate excluded.
The final margin between Chisholm and Stoker was 0.2546 quotas.
Assessment
Queensland has generally produced the most right-wing results in Senate elections for a long time. The Coalition managed to win four seats in 2004. In 2013, the LNP won three seats along with Glenn Lazarus of the Palmer United Party. The 2016 double dissolution election saw five LNP senators plus two One Nation senators elected. And in 2019 the LNP and One Nation won four seats between them.
That means the right will be defending four seats in 2025, as they were in 2022, and opens up an opportunity for the left to pick up a third seat if Labor can win a second seat without displacing a Greens member.
This means Queensland will be a defensive state for the right. Usually they have only won four seats in strong elections such as 2004, 2013 and 2019. Current polling suggests they won’t be in a position to win those seats in 2025.
The Queensland Senate results are “lively” in conjunction with the Reps 2PP for the state occasionally getting into the very low 40s for the left. Recall that three quotas is about 42.86% of the vote — and sure enough, in 2019 Labor’s 2PP was 41.56%, but in 2022 it was 45.95%.
(Meanwhile in WA the right seem to have converted poorly by this hypothesis. There was a 2PP of 45% in the Reps (3.15q) but Ben Small couldn’t get above half a quota and One Nation were pipped for 6th by Labor. To summarise, ON did well off UAP prefs, but both Cannabis and Liberal prefs helped Labor slightly.)
> if Labor can win a second seat without displacing a Greens member
The Greens seem to be getting pretty close to a quota in their own right. Both Allman-Payne and Waters were elected without Labor ATLs, though in Waters’ case she was fighting Labor for 6th and you could see a reversal there in a year more like 2013 than 2019.
Labor haven’t cracked 2 half-Senate quotas on primary vote since 2013. If that does happen again, as long as the Greens can stay above 0.7 quotas you’d expect them to at least be competitive. (Those results are similar to NSW last year.)
As much as I don’t think it will happen, nothing would please me more than to see Rennick and Roberts turfed out of the Senate. These two have been nothing but toxic for political discourse.
@hawkeye you’ll be happy to know then that rennick lost preselection on July 8
It seems Labor has motivation to try to win 2 senate quotas here, partly to limit the LNP from getting their third seat, but also as part of their efforts to improve their HoR primary vote which has barely recovered from their 2019 battering.
I wrote in last year’s QLD senate thread that One Nation’s days may be numbered (unless there’s a double dissolution). One Nation’s vote went backward at both the federal and state election, but Hanson managed to get in with half a quota. This is despite a personal brand and name recognition as the leader, pandemic-fueled sentiment, and preference flows from UAP and LDP. There’s also the implosion of ON in NSW (Mark Latham has quit the party). I read that James Ashby is in line for a Senate spot. Either he jostles with Malcolm Roberts for preselection or Hanson retires and lets Ashby replace her.
At this rate, LNP will pick up the 3rd seat unless a minor party like UAP or even Legalise Cannabis miraculously gets it.
I was meant to say “LNP will pick up [their] 3rd seat”, otherwise a minor party will win a seat at their expense. This will create a scenario of LNP 2 (if not 3), ALP 2, GRN 1, OTH 1 (if not 0).
Votante I reckon it will be tr same as it is now lnp 3onp 1 1 Labor and 1 green. The 2022 was an error due to Labor being in opposition and being in a strong position at a date level but given their position T a state and federal level federally I think they will return to the status quo result
What’s rub here if Rennick jumps on with Palmer or ON?
This is a daring prediction, But I think Labor will FAIL to win back the 2nd senate seat due to the fact they chose the failed candidate in my former electorate of Petrie and had one of the worst showings in the seat since the war, Corinne Mulholland.
I expect Labor will lose Blair, but hold everywhere else in QLD and narrowly fail to win the far north seat which I forgot how to spell and can’t be bothered looking it up.
Greens will improve their vote but Labor will go backwards. Minors yet again will do well seeing Malcolm Roberts retain his seat (which incidentally will be instead of Labor’s 2nd seat)
Why does Labor think they are democratic by choosing candidates who were beaten badly in previous elections for senate seats? (Not saying the Libs are any saints here)
I’ll further add, Kate Jones should’ve been the candidate as she is POPULAR with the public and with Labor voters and members/volunteers.
They only chose Corinne Mulholland because the faction powerhouse/bosses or executives wanted her. Perhaps maybe even the unions but I am not entirely sure, my point is, they won’t choose the best/most electable candidate but rather the one that pleases the powerbrokers the most.
Jones would’ve almost shored the 2nd seat, now, it is in doubt. And Labor have nobody to blame but themselves.
@Daniel T
I will say though the amount Liberal cheer leaders that posted saying Blair and Moreton were at risk for Labor last federal election. That turned out to be bullshit. Does have me weary about of a rehash of these predictions. You can keep repeating but it doesn’t mean it will happen. It was reported in the Courier Mail Corinne Mulholland isn’t completely a done deal of getting the second spot on Labor’s senate ticket. The only other contender is Jenny Hill former mayor from Townsville.
@Daniel T
“narrowly fail to win the far north seat which I forgot how to spell”
Leichhardt (Cairns and Cape York seat, held by Warren Entsch)?
I know that name (Leichhardt) because it is also used as a suburb of Sydney.
For a statewide vote like the Senate where most people vote above the line, I really doubt most voters are paying attention to who is in what position on the ballot and letting that affect their choice. And I doubt most of them would have any clue who Corinne Mulholland is or what she’s run for in the past. This is a classic conflation of the mindset of politics nerds with the average voter, and assuming most people think the way we do.
The average voter will more likely vote based on their overall impression of each party. In Labor’s case this would probably be based on their impression of the Albanese government.
Jacqui Lambie Network will run in the Senate on the mainland for the first time since 2016. Their lead candidate in Queensland has been announced as Ange Harper, a lobbyist who previously served in the same army platoon as Lambie in the late 80s.
JLN running in Queensland? Sounds interesting but they won’t win anywhere outside Tasmania.
KAP only runs in Queensland and the Centre Alliance only runs in one SA seat now (Mayo, held by the party’s sole MP Rebekha Sharkie), I wonder if they’ll expand into other states.
@np JLN has just imploded at a state level. her vote was recently recorded at 8% but that was before the party imlpoded and along with Tammy Tyrells quiting it seem JL has got problems. if he cant maintain her 8% vote at the next election she could lose her senate spot. but that benefit the libs and gives the crosbench on less vote. if the libs can oust lambie and pocock it means labor will need faruqui tyrell and thorpe to pass legislation. as i doubt babet and hanson will give them anything
Possibly a chance if group voting still happened but now not likely – just more dogs and cats clogging up the ballot paper. These small players never seem to realise the logistics of turning a name on a ballot paper into a meaningful vote tally.
I suspect JLN will be about as successful as the other times they’ve run up here.
Hard to say what exactly will happen in Qld this time around, beyond the LNP will get 2, Labor will get 1, and from there it’s 4 candidates chasing 3 spots, each on a fairly similar total.
If you think that August 11th Resolve poll is good then you’d probably be tipping another 3-1-1-1. Having said that if you infer a 2PP from those primaries then it’s only 55-45 at most, so there’s plausibly a few prefs out there to bring Labor up a bit. you really need a 2PP that’s above 4:3 (57-43) before you start seeing 4-2 results in the Senate.
But I wonder how Cannabis will do this year without UAP?
Labor are likely to get 2. .
@mick doubtful. they barely got 2 in 2022 when the vote was at a highpoint. the likely outcome this time will be 3 lnp 1 onp 1 labor and 1 green. the conservative vote only needs to recover that 3.7% that the lnp lost in order to retain the 4-2 status quo. similarily if the conservative vote increases by 1.9% and the left vote drops by 1.9% the same outcome will happen. so my prediction is 3 lnp 1 onp 1 labor 1 green
One Nation may struggle in 2025 as Malcolm Roberts will (presumably – it is One Nation so anything could happen) be the lead candidate. He does not have the star power of Pauline. The big ‘if’ is whether Clive gives the UAP a run around again. If not, ON might better placed to pick up those strays from the right wing fringe. I can’t imagine Gerard Rennick making much of a dent at all.
@redistributed based on the numbers above malcom roberts should be reelected and i would wager that the result will be 3-1-1-1 again due to the numbers shifting back in the favour of the conservatives especially given labor are about to get flogged in qld state election.
I don’t think Labor will do quite as badly as 2019 in the senate, I think they’ll just scrape 2 seats. Greens seat is now a given, so it will just come down to 3LNP or 2LNP + ON for the remaining slots. All dependant on One Nations performance.
@banana based on my math only about .13 of a quota or around 56k votes have to shift from labor to liberal for the lnp to hold its 3rd seat so thats a swing of less the 1.6% statewide.
4/2 right left is unusual more the norm is 3/3
Quota is only 2/7 of the vote. 2019 was a disaster election for Labor in Qld
Eg Capricornia had a double digit margin this vote would have been unusual in 2022 margin was 6%
Given the drubbing labor is about to get inqld I wouldn’t put it out of the question
I wonder if Rennick running might split off One Nation or Palmer or Katter voters a bit and help the LNP hold onto the third senator in the end?
@LNP i predict the lnp will get 3 and onp will get 1
I wonder how many disendorsed MPs would run without the ‘separation’ payment – 6 months of base salary.
After what Lidia Thorpe did yesterday to the King and Queen Consort and her previous incidents, she should be forced to resign from Parliament. She cannot be behaving like that as an elected official and quite frankly I don’t think anyone in their right mind would think she is fit for office.
@NP probly better suited to Victoria thread since that’s where she’s a senator. She does this for attention. That’s why she did it. Not about indigenous people or anything else she just wants to stay relevant.
Whoops wrong thread. I’ll move it.
Fatima Payman and Pauline Hanson had a heated exchange today about racism.
@Nimalan unsurprising. They’re both on completely opposite sides of the spectrum.
@ NP
The only reason i posted it because there was once a comment in one tallyroom thread that Muslim voters may vote One Nation because they are angry with Labor on the Middle East Conflict which i think is just plain silly.
@Nimalan that’s an extremely dumb comment. One Nation is fiercely pro-Israel and pro-Western, so Muslim voters upset with Labor over Labor supporting Israel wouldn’t vote One Nation.
There is a cohort of CALD people including some Muslims that do vote One Nation, however, and the party has had CALD candidates. Nevertheless, that cohort is small (though not as small as Jewish Greens which basically don’t exist).
Agree NP
Thats like Turkeys for Christmas, Lambs for Easter or Rabbits voting for SFF