ALP 8.8%
Incumbent MP
Tracey Roberts, since 2022.
Geography
Pearce covers the northern suburbs of Perth, including most of the Wanneroo council area, along with the western edge of the Swan council area and a small part of the Joondalup council area. The main suburbs are Wanneroo, Landsdale, Darch, Madeley, Carramar, Tapping, Mindarie, Merriwa, Butler, Yanchep and Two Rocks.
Redistribution
Pearce expanded slightly to the south, taking in Kinross from Moore. This change slightly reduced the Labor margin from 9.0% to 8.8%.
Pearce was created for the 1990 election, and in its short history it has always been held by the Liberal Party.
Pearce was first won in 1990 by Fred Chaney. Chaney had been a Liberal Senator since 1974, and had served as Leader of the Opposition in the Senate from 1984 until he left the Senate to take a seat in the House of Representatives. Chaney had also served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1978 to 1983. Chaney retired from Pearce in 1993.
Pearce was won in 1993 by Liberal candidate Judi Moylan. Moylan served as a junior minister in the first term of the Howard government, and then served as a backbencher until her retirement in 2013.
Pearce was won in 2013 by Liberal candidate Christian Porter, a former minister in the state government. Porter was re-elected twice, in 2016 and 2019. Porter was promoted to the ministry in 2015, and became Attorney-General in 2017. A historical rape allegation became public in early 2021, which resulted in him stepping down from the ministry later that year, and retiring from his seat in 2022.
Labor candidate Tracey Roberts won Pearce in 2022.
Assessment
Labor won Pearce by a substantial margin in 2022, but a swing back to the Liberal Party could make this seat a lot closer.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tracey Roberts | Labor | 40,596 | 42.8 | +11.0 | 42.4 |
| Linda Aitken | Liberal | 28,380 | 29.9 | -13.5 | 30.1 |
| Donna Nelson | Greens | 10,416 | 11.0 | +1.2 | 11.2 |
| Aaron Malloy | One Nation | 4,295 | 4.5 | -2.3 | 4.7 |
| Trevor Dalby | United Australia | 2,534 | 2.7 | +0.1 | 2.6 |
| Jim Paice | Western Australia Party | 2,206 | 2.3 | +1.6 | 2.4 |
| Roslyn Stewart | Great Australian Party | 2,160 | 2.3 | +2.3 | 2.3 |
| Vanessa Montgomery | Australian Christians | 2,097 | 2.2 | +0.3 | 2.0 |
| David Marshall | Liberal Democrats | 1,548 | 1.6 | +1.6 | 1.5 |
| Nigel March | Federation Party | 684 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.7 |
| Informal | 6,306 | 6.2 | +0.2 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tracey Roberts | Labor | 56,040 | 59.0 | +14.2 | 58.8 |
| Linda Aitken | Liberal | 38,876 | 41.0 | -14.2 | 41.2 |
Polling places in Pearce have been divided into three areas: east, north, and south-west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 57.5% in the south-west to 63.9% in the north.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.3% in the east to 13.9% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 12.3 | 59.8 | 13,656 | 16.0 |
| South-West | 13.1 | 57.5 | 10,879 | 12.8 |
| North | 13.9 | 63.9 | 9,660 | 11.4 |
| Pre-poll | 9.2 | 58.7 | 31,791 | 37.4 |
| Other votes | 11.5 | 56.6 | 19,107 | 22.5 |
Election results in Pearce at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
This seat had WA’s largest election-day booth at Landsdale Primary School, with 2521 votes cast.
There was an article in the ABC talking about mortgage, household and renter stress and this electorate was extremely high. Given the exceptional circumstances of the 2022 election and the previous unpopular and controversial high profile member as well as the long conservative history of this seat Labor will have a large swing against them here. At this point I’d say this seat is a toss up and could go either way.
@spacfish…great points. The only issue I have is that the boundary changes were very significant.
@spacefish im in agreement there is high mortage, rental and household stress in this electorate. the test will be the WA state election where Labor holds the overlapping seats between 25-32% margins. though people may take their anger out on the state govt where it can sustain more then a 9% swing. but yea nothing is safe in WA in these liberal heartland seats. Labor won Wa on the back of Mark McGowan and Scomo dissing WA voters. now those same voters have had anti WA policies either brought against them or under threat or bringing them.
@Mike outer suburban seats margins are rubbery just look at McEwen in 2013 with a 9.1 buffer to less then 0.1. I could see a situation where Labor holds Tangney with little to no swing towards or against due to cost of living pressures being less prominent compared to an electorate like this.
@spacefish…sorry I may not have explained myself clearly. My point was that a lot of the voters in Oearce were not there last time. I agree with you re volatility in outer suburban seats like your great example of McEwen which I think.is in danger. I also would not be surprised if Pearce swings a lot more than WA as a whole. I think the biggest swings will be in outer suburban seats like Pearce.
from what i hear the libs are targetting Pearce, Cowan, Tangey, Curtin, Bullwinkel and Hasluck
According to today’s edition of Insiders, Pearce is the most mortgaged electorate. There was some talk about this following above-average swings at the state election in Wanneroo and Butler.
On Insiders, someone had concerns for Tracey Roberts following the diagnosis of her health problems.
She has Multiple system atrophy while this. Doesn’t her atm it will eventually impair her ability to represent her constituents.
pearce now considered “in play” https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-16/federal-seat-of-pearce-in-play-after-wa-election/105047540 id say this is the ony reason Tracey Roberts is soldiering on and recontesting. if it was safe seat she would have probably retired early or at thegeneral election due to health issues. no offence intended but her condition will only worsen and she will lose the ability to best represent her constituents.
Cowan and Swan also appear to be under “financial stress” but i think they wil hold no just in Swan due to demographics and in COwan due to members perosnal standing.