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Liberal gain, due to the small margin and the political realignment that is going on with demographics like this.
Easily in fact I can’t see winning this seat again the growth on the north coast means it only gonna shed the rest of cessnock and Newcastle in time and move further north
easy liberal gain here id say at least a 5% swing
The seat is Port Stephens plus. Maitland with nothing nasty like the upper Hunter or Foster- Tuncurry.
I would expect a better vote for Labor looking it appears there was a big prepoll vote which Labor only just won.
I expect that component to improve.