ALP 3.7%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Charlton, since 2022.
Geography
Western Sydney. The seat of Parramatta covers the centre of Parramatta and surrounding suburbs, including Wentworthville, Westmead, Carlingford, Dundas, Ermington, Girraween, Pendle Hill and Rydalmere, and parts of Epping, Seven Hills and Toongabbie. The electorate covers most of the City of Parramatta along with a small part of the Cumberland and Blacktown council areas.
Redistribution
Parramatta shifted north, expanding to the north-east and north-west. Parramatta lost Granville and the remainder of Merrylands to Blaxland, bringing the southern border up to the M4. Parramatta gained Ermington and parts of Epping and Melrose Park from Bennelong and Berowra in the north-east, and Girraween and parts of Seven Hills from Greenway in the north-west. These changes cut the Labor margin from 4.6% to 3.7%.
History
Parramatta is an original Federation electorate. The seat has long been a marginal seat, focused on the Parramatta CBD. The seat has shrunk substantially from its original boundaries, when it covered most of what is now northwestern Sydney and stretched as far as Lithgow.
The seat was first won in 1901 by Joseph Cook, a former minister in George Reid’s Free Trade colonial government. Cook held the seat for the first twenty years of Federation, successively for the Free Trade Party, Anti-Socialist Party, Commonwealth Liberal Party and the Nationalists.
Cook served as Leader of the Anti-Socialist Party following George Reid’s retirement in 1908, and agreed to merge with Alfred Deakin’s Protectionists in 1909 to form the Commonwealth Liberal Party. He served as Defence Minister in Deakin’s final government and became Liberal leader after Deakin’s defeat at the 1910 election.
Cook won the 1913 election, becoming Prime Minister, but with a Labor majority in the Senate his government was stifled, and he called a Double Dissolution in 1914, which he lost.
In 1916, Labor Prime Minister Billy Hughes left the ALP over the issue of conscription, and Cook agreed to merge his Liberals with the Labor rebels to form the Nationalist Party, with Cook as Hughes’ deputy. He retired in 1921 to serve as High Commissioner in London.
The ensuing by-election was won by Herbert Pratten. Pratten moved to the new seat of Martin in 1922, and was replaced in Parramatta by fellow Nationalist Eric Bowden. Pratten held Martin until his death in 1928, while Bowden held Parramatta until 1929, when he lost the seat.
Labor candidate Albert Rowe won in 1929, but only held it for one term, losing it to United Australia Party candidate Frederick Stewart in 1931. Stewart went on to serve in a variety of ministerial roles in the Lyons and Menzies governments, and retired in 1946.
Parramatta was won in 1946 by Liberal candidate Howard Beale. Beale served as a minister in the Menzies government from its election in 1949 until his retirement in 1958, when he became Ambassador to the United States.
The seat was won in 1958 by prominent barrister Garfield Barwick, who held the seat for the Liberals until 1964, when he was appointed Chief Justice of the High Court of Australia.
The 1964 by-election was held by Liberal candidate Nigel Bowen. Bowen joined Harold Holt’s cabinet following the 1966 election and remained there until the election of the Whitlam government. He left Parliament in 1973 to serve on the NSW Supreme Court.
The 1973 by-election was a key contest during the Whitlam government. Bowen had held on by a slim margin in 1972, but Liberal candidate Philip Ruddock managed a 7% swing and won the seat.
Ruddock was re-elected in 1974 and 1975, but moved to the new seat of Dundas in 1977. He held Dundas until its abolition in 1993, when he moved to Berowra, which he held until 2016. He served as Minister for Immigration then Attorney-General in the Howard government. Following his retirement from parliament, he serves as Mayor of Hornsby from 2017 until 2024.
Parramatta was won in 1977 by the ALP’s John Brown. Brown served as a junior minister for the first two terms of the Hawke government, and was promoted to Cabinet in 1987, but was forced to resign as a minister in 1988 after misleading the House, and retired in 1990.
Brown was succeeded by former Mayor of Parramatta Paul Elliott, also an ALP member. Elliott served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the final term of the Labor government, and lost Parramatta to Liberal candidate Ross Cameron in 1996.
Cameron was appointed a Parliamentary Secretary after the 2001 election, and continued in similar roles until the 2004 election, where he was one of the few Liberal MPs to lose their seat, with Labor candidate Julie Owens winning the seat.
The 2007 redistribution pushed Parramatta north and made it notionally Liberal, but a big swing saw Owens retain the seat. Owens was re-elected four times, and retired in 2022.
Labor’s Andrew Charlton won Parramatta in 2022, seeing off Liberal candidate Maria Kovacic who was later appointed to a vacancy in the Senate.
- Andrew Charlton (Labor)
- Katie Mullens (Liberal)
- Liz Tilly (Greens)
Assessment
Parramatta is a very marginal seat, but Charlton will likely benefit from a new personal vote after three years in the seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Charlton | Labor | 34,258 | 40.7 | -4.4 | 40.2 |
| Maria Kovacic | Liberal | 29,492 | 35.0 | -6.3 | 36.8 |
| Phil Bradley | Greens | 7,546 | 9.0 | +1.7 | 9.5 |
| Julian Fayad | United Australia | 4,269 | 5.1 | +2.5 | 4.2 |
| Steve Christou | Independent | 2,982 | 3.5 | +3.5 | 2.3 |
| Heather Freeman | One Nation | 2,011 | 2.4 | +2.4 | 2.3 |
| Rohan Laxmanalal | Animal Justice | 2,397 | 2.8 | +2.8 | 2.0 |
| Liza Tazewell | Liberal Democrats | 1,310 | 1.6 | +1.6 | 1.7 |
| Others | 1.0 | ||||
| Informal | 8,259 | 8.9 | +0.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Charlton | Labor | 45,980 | 54.6 | +1.1 | 53.7 |
| Maria Kovacic | Liberal | 38,285 | 45.4 | -1.1 | 46.3 |
Booths in Parramatta have been divided into three areas: north-east, south-east and west.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.7% in the north-east to 55.6% in the west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote of 8.2% in the west and almost 11% in the other two areas.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 10.8 | 53.9 | 19,497 | 21.0 |
| West | 8.2 | 55.6 | 16,831 | 18.2 |
| North-East | 10.7 | 51.7 | 12,876 | 13.9 |
| Pre-poll | 8.8 | 54.5 | 25,084 | 27.1 |
| Other votes | 9.7 | 52.2 | 18,358 | 19.8 |
Election results in Parraatta at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
if they had of gone with the m2 boundary instead of bleeding over into blacktown and cumberland this would have been an easy win for the liberals
I sense Andrew Charlton will get a sophomore surge following some controversies about a captain’s pick and parachuting last election.
I think he may hold but on reduced margin as the CoL hurts and the liberals revival in nsw
Charlton wouldnt know what CoL means hes got about 6 mansions across the north shore of sydney i think. either way hes not doing it tough. I think this will be <1% towards Labor but the Liberals may be able to snag it.
This area does not have enough liberal areas in it to.flip
@ John
Very few federal politicians are doing.it.tough.
@mick not true some politicians have a mortgage just like everyone else and aren’t buying $12m properties and $2m sub penthouses on the riverfront.
@john…. sure some mp s are more wealthy than others.But I stand by my point they are not doing it tough
Awe slightly less than 100k per yr
Politicians base salary $233k pa with no add ons
Office holders pm speaker m8ninisters get at least double the base
Andrew Charlton,competent though he is(in contradistinction to a lot of other ALP members) doesn’t strike me as a person who would have a personal vote.
The reference to a sophomore surge I think is misleading.While it can exist,it is of little assistance when the government is on the nose as the polls indicate.
I think Charlton needs to be in a safer seat.He should have been in the ministry,but isn’t.
Has mp built some personal vote?
He seems a different proposition to
KKK.
There was a slight swing against Labor here in 2022.
This is still centred on the greater Parramatta.
Alp retain
Sophomore surge can still be important when a party is suffering a swing – it’s about doing relatively better than the party’s general swing. So if the ALP is suffering a 4% swing, maybe you only suffer a 2% swing and save your seat.
I don’t think Charlton will have a huge personal vote but he’ll have some.
I agree that Andrew Charlton should have some portfolio at least.
The swing to Labor in 2022 was muted following the departure of long-term member Julie Owens plus the controversy and lateness of his preselection and parachuting. The electorate might have warmed up to him since then.
@sabena the problem is there are no safe seats available most if not all their safe sydney seats are currently occupied.
@mick i say 50/50 here for charlton if he retains it will be under 1% margin.
@votante im sure the people of parramatta are more concerned with CoL something Charlton will know nothing about
As a Parramatta local, it seems like Charlton himself is popular but the Albanese government is on the nose badly. Going to be a fascinating match-up between the Westminster and presidential systems – if one votes as is intended for an MP to represent your area’s concerns, think Charlton wins comfortably enough, but if one’s vote is anti-Albanese, then I think Parramatta could fall to the Coalition. I think John is right – Charlton 50/50, probably retains but by a handful of votes.
@H@wke thanks for that its good to get opinion from the seat in question. The 2022 2pp swing was only 1.07% in a year when labor swept to power and the boundaries have become abit more favourable to the Libs in the redistribution. the CoL crisis is appparent in a seat ike parramatta and combine that with the anti-albo swing does anyone know what the cultural and ethnic background breakdown of this seat is? or where to find it? If Duttons making Majority he’ll likely need Parramatta.
Ben,
I think the problem with what you have said is that the statewide swing against Labor may be more than 4%. In those circumstances, you can do better than the statewide swing, but still lose.Given the ominous signs,3.7% is not looking enough.
@sabena we will have a better view once they start to release state breakdowns for the year
Suspect alp retain
@mick agreed for now atm i have it in the leaning labor column
I wouldn’t rule out either Parramatta or Greenway as a Liberal win. In Parramatta, it will largely come down to those areas in Eastwood and Carlingford which have a large Chinese population and swung heavily last time – will they swing back. And in Greenway, those booths in Riverstone and along Windsor Road that swung very heavily last time – a sort of North West Sydney swing that went into Mitchell and Macquarie as well. Michelle Rowland has been lucky as the Libs have seriously botched Greenway a few times.
@redistributed while Parramatta may flip in my opinion I think Michelle Rowland may hold on for at least one more election. it would likely be a liberal seat had James Diaz not fumbled the ball in 2013.
I think this seat might actually flip Liberal – redistributed actually raised a good point about the Eastwood and Carlingford side of the seat, which only flipped to Labor at the last election because of (assumably) how they felt ScoMo treated the Chinese community in Australia.
Now that he’s gone, seats like Bennelong, Chisholm and Aston are predicted to flip to the Coalition – all seats with a high Asian population. Although competent as others have said, I don’t think Charlton is popular enough to retain them with the Labor Party (unlike perhaps, Sally Sitou or Linda Burney). This phenomena is even more prominent with Jerome Laxale in Bennelong, who has been completely overshadowed by Scott Yung’s campaign. I drive through the seat every week, and work near the area – Laxale has been completely absent whilst Yung has been buying billboard campaigns at Top Ryde, Chatswood etc. however this is a page about Parramatta which may have a different story here.
Either way, I would not be surprised if the Eastwood and Carlingford side ended up flipping heavily to the Coalition – let’s not forget that the areas and booths with the highest Chinese populations (e.g. Reid, Banks, Chisholm, Bennelong) swung substantially more than the statewide swing in 2022. I would take the idea of applying the predicted statewide swing here with a grain of salt – judging by 2022, this seat and Bennelong are likely to swing much more than that in 2025. Just my thoughts
@wombater me and a few others put in a proposal to move parramatta to the m2 with Mitchell had they done this they would absolutely lose parramatta the boundaries adding in parts of Blacktown and Cumberland have saved his bacon here. Still it could still flip.
@John I think the loss of the areas around Auburn to Blaxland combined with the addition of more Liberal-friendly parts of Eastwood etc will really make this seat come to a knife’s edge. It really would depend on how strong Charlton’s personal support is, just like Laxale in Bennelong, the odds are already an uphill battle due to redistribution.
i reckon it will be one the most marginal if not the most marginal seats after the election
A lot will depend on how much of the Chinese vote goes back to the Libs in the northern part. Agree with John – it will be very close either way. Andrew Charlton seems very out of place in the seat – a very odd fit.
@redsitrbuted i imagine thats what blunted the labor swing in 2022. id say its the reason they put those people in at that time. if they tried to put him in in 2019 and 2025 they would have lost the seat
This one is getting overhyped a fair bit. It might look close on the pendulum but there was a clear effect from the 2022 candidate controversy in the heavily Indian parts of this seat – booth results from Wentworthville and Westmead got a swing to the Liberals while a few hundred metres away in McMahon and Greenway those swings were reversed. Charlton by now has managed to establish himself here and shouldn’t have any malus as a candidate. Moreover, it’s not actually as mortgage-heavy as many other outer suburban seats, where rates are more likely to have eroded support for the government, and has a younger profile. I put Werriwa and Greenway at higher risk than this.
If he was in Kingsford Smith, Bennelong, Robertson or even Whitlam it wouldn’t seem so incronguous. Gough Whitlam with a very similar background and educational pedigree did become MP for Werriwa in 1952. That must have been a shock at the time. But then he always lived in his electorate until he went to The Lodge. Of course, if it was 2016 – the ALP could not have been throwing the ‘Mr Harbourside Mansion’ jibe as it would have come straight back.
Parramatta isn’t a working class electorate, it’s very highly educated electorate and decidedly middle-class with lots of white collar workers – especially with the growth of Parramatta CBD. It’s not outer suburban mortgage belt either – it’s very much established middle-ring suburbia. The defining thing about this seat is probably just how multicultural it is.
Redistributed,
When Gough Whitlam was first elected,he lived in Cronulla,which was in his seat.Though not as affluent as now,it was comfortably middle class.
A redistribution of Werriwa moved the seat west,so Gough had to move to Cabramatta.As soon as his political career was over he ceased to live there.
Sabena
Yes you are right I stand corrected. Possibly there is a Whitlam biography that explains why he stayed with Werriwa rather than transferring to the new Hughes in 1955 which took in Cronulla. Werriwa at the time was not much safer than Hughes – though Labor did lose Hughes in 1966.
About Parramatta’s demographics, it’s actually very similar to a large capital city CBD. It’s quite gentrified as there has been a decades-long push to make it Sydney’s CBD or Western Sydney’s CBD.
There’s lots of shiny new infrastructure like the light rail, Parramatta Square and Meriton apartments. The average person is a renter, especially in Parramatta CBD and neighbouring suburbs like Westmead, North Parramatta and Harris Park. There are more white-collar professionals and bachelor degree holders than average.
There are some working-class suburbs like Toongabbie and Constitution Hill. Such areas are not as favourable to Labor as they used to be. There are also suburbs like Oatlands that are super expensive to buy in with an abudance of free-standing homes on decent sized land. They are fetching over $2m.
Places like Toongabbie and Constitution Hill are still very middle class when you compare indicators like income, education etc to the average for Greater Sydney. There are not really any proper working class areas in Parramatta anymore since Granville, Merrylands, Auburn and Guildford are all in Blaxland.
Do we know where the sky news forum is going to be held yet
Western Sydney
Thanks thats very specific. Anyway there’s another one in Parramatta in the 16th hosted by the abc but it’s the abc that’s deciding the questions. Why not have an off the cuff questions from regular people.
Probly a 2-3% swing here Charlton to hold on this time around but to lose it in 2028. The sec missed a chance to move most of Parramatta lga into Parramatta. Could have easily put those parts in Bennelong and Mitchell in.
Parramatta LGA has terrible boundaries which exclude Westmead and extend past Epping and Olympic Park, so all the better. These boundaries are much more sensible and have a community of interest that actually is centred on Parramatta.
As for the prediction, this will be a straightforward retain with Charlton to get a swing towards him. He won’t have any more candidate controversy and Parramatta’s demographics are much more unfriendly to the Liberals than the margin currently shows.
All the seat polling I’ve seen shows a 2 % swing against him. It’s not like he knows how people here are doing CoL wise he’s living it it up in luxury and still sends his kids to school in the wealthy eastern subjrbs
@Darth Vader If that was the justification then no politician would get it. They’re all rich property investors who pretend to ‘understand’ what the people are going through. Parramatta isn’t somewhere like Werriwa where COL are biting hard, it’s more affluent, inner-city, white collar and professional meaning it’s less susceptible to cost of living.
Labor hold.
Yes I’m also saying labor hold but reduced margin
@Darth Vader There’s no seat polling here unless you’re talking MRP, of which the latest one had a nationwide 2PP of 50.2% (1.9% swing) with Parramatta 2PP of 52.6% (1.1%). So below the average, and polls since then have been getting better for Labor. And that’s just MRP, not a poll. I also expect they are using the undercooked margin of 2022 thanks to the candidacy controversy as a starting point, so at the baseline Charlton should be getting a sizeable sophomore boost.