NAT 10.7%
Incumbent MP
Kevin Hogan, since 2013.
Geography
North coast of NSW. Page covers the towns of Lismore, Kyogle, Casino, Grafton, Nimbin, Woolgoolga and Yamba, and just reaches the outskirts of Coffs Harbour.
Redistribution
Page expanded slightly south, taking in Korora on the northern edge of the Coffs Harbour urban area from Cowper.
History
Page was first created for the 1984 election. The first member for Page was Ian Robinson (NAT), who had previously been member for Cowper since 1963. Robinson was defeated in 1990 by Harry Woods (ALP) after 27 years in federal parliament. The seat has gone to a party of government ever since 1990.
Woods was defeated by former state minister Ian Causley (NAT) at the 1996 election. Wood proceeded to win the by-election for Causley’s former state seat of Clarence and went on to serve as a minister in Bob Carr’s second term.
Causley served in federal Parliament for eleven years, retiring in 2007. The ALP preselected former state upper house MP and advisor to Jose Ramos Horta, Janelle Saffin, while the Nationals preselected former Mayor of Maclean Chris Gulaptis. Despite a 5.5% margin for the Nationals, the ALP won Page on a 7.8% swing.
Saffin was re-elected in 2010, but lost in 2013 to Nationals candidate Kevin Hogan. Hogan has been re-elected three times.
Assessment
Page is a reasonably safe Nationals seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kevin Hogan | Nationals | 47,701 | 45.6 | -4.0 | 45.4 |
| Patrick Deegan | Labor | 19,531 | 18.7 | -7.7 | 18.6 |
| Hanabeth Luke | Independent | 13,734 | 13.1 | +13.1 | 12.9 |
| Kashmir Miller | Greens | 8,863 | 8.5 | -3.2 | 8.4 |
| Donna Pike | One Nation | 5,621 | 5.4 | +5.4 | 5.4 |
| Thomas Searles | Liberal Democrats | 3,896 | 3.7 | +3.7 | 3.7 |
| Ian Williamson | United Australia | 2,431 | 2.3 | -0.9 | 2.3 |
| Brett Duroux | Indigenous – Aboriginal Party | 1,733 | 1.7 | +1.7 | 1.6 |
| Heather Smith | Federation Party | 816 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.8 |
| Others | 0.6 | ||||
| Serge Killingbeck | TNL | 243 | 0.2 | +0.2 | 0.2 |
| Informal | 7,839 | 7.0 | +2.2 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kevin Hogan | Nationals | 63,512 | 60.7 | +1.3 | 60.7 |
| Patrick Deegan | Labor | 41,057 | 39.3 | -1.3 | 39.3 |
Booths in Page have been split into six parts. Booths in the three main towns of Lismore, Grafton and Casino have been grouped together. Booths in Coffs Harbour council area and the remainder of Clarence Valley council area have been grouped as “South”. Booths in the remainder of the north have been split into north-east and north-west, with those around Casino grouped as north-west and those around Lismore as north-east.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all six areas, ranging from 51.8% in Lismore to 69.8% in Casino.
Independent candidate Hanabeth Luke came third, with a primary vote ranging from 6.9% in Casino to 18.0% in the north-east.
| Voter group | IND prim | NAT 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 16.4 | 60.7 | 18,726 | 17.6 |
| North-East | 18.0 | 53.8 | 11,931 | 11.2 |
| Lismore | 11.7 | 51.8 | 6,574 | 6.2 |
| Grafton | 12.8 | 66.0 | 6,465 | 6.1 |
| North-West | 11.3 | 61.7 | 4,245 | 4.0 |
| Casino | 6.9 | 69.8 | 2,728 | 2.6 |
| Pre-poll | 12.3 | 62.8 | 44,333 | 41.6 |
| Other votes | 12.2 | 58.8 | 11,690 | 11.0 |
Election results in Page at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, Labor and independent candidates.
The Independent hurt Labor more here by looks in the drop of the primary vote, this seat seems to have moved away from being competitive. I would say national hold as Labor will be busy sandbagging other electorate and trying to win more competitive electorates.
Sorry I mean National hold
This isn’t even a bellwether anymore, it’s becoming a safe Nationals seat like the rest of the North Coast and the Mid North Coast.
The only thing keeping the Labor anywhere close is the vote in Lismore which I assume is because of the University. A redistribution or an increase to parliament could cut that margin and if Hogan retires labor might be within a shot.
Really poor form of the AEC to split the Coffs LGA even more – Korora and the northern beaches are people who are connected to Coffs Harbour, and have zero commonality with Grafton/Lismore/Casino. Hogan drives down to Woolgoolga once every three years for a photo op then ignores the southern end after the election. Coffs LGA needs to be entirely in ONE electorate.
Unfortunately the numbers just don’t add up to do that but agree
Makes me wonder if we’ll someday see Coffs Harbour split along Coffs Creek.
Depending on what happens in Richmond new England it might be possible to remove Coffs harbour altogether and put it into Cowper entirely. That wat port Macquarie could be moved entirely into lyne