ALP 11.6%
Incumbent MP
Milton Dick, since 2016.
Geography
Oxley covers the southwestern suburbs of the City of Brisbane and eastern parts of the City of Ipswich. Suburbs include Redbank, Forest Lake, Richlands, Durack, Inala, Jamboree Heights and Jindalee.
The seat of Oxley was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1949 election. After first being held by the Liberal Party for a decade, it has almost always been won by the ALP, except for the 1996 election, when it was won by disendorsed Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson, who later formed the One Nation party.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Liberal candidate Donald Cameron. Cameron served as a minister in the Menzies government from 1956 until his defeat at the 1961 election, when he was defeated by former police officer and Labor candidate Bill Hayden.
Hayden served as Member for Oxley for 27 years. He joined Gough Whitlam’s ministry in 1972, and served as Treasurer for the final five months of the Whitlam government in 1975. Hayden was elected Leader of the Opposition after Gough Whitlam’s resignation after the 1977 election, and led the party to an improved position in 1980.
Hayden faced a leadership threat from former ACTU president Bob Hawke, who had entered Parliament in 1980. Hawke failed to win a ballot in 1982. In early 1983 Hayden resigned as leader and was replaced by Hawke, only hours before Malcolm Fraser called an early election. After Bob Hawke’s win, Hayden was appointed Foreign Minister. He served in this role until he was appointed Governor-General in 1988, at which point he resigned from Parliament.
The ensuing by-election was won by the ALP’s Les Scott. Scott held the seat for the remainder of the Hawke/Keating government, up to the 1996 election. The Liberal Party preselected former Ipswich councillor Pauline Hanson as their candidate in 1996. Shortly before the election she was quoted in local papers criticising government assistance for indigenous Australians, which resulted in her disendorsement as a Liberal candidate. With the ballot papers already printed with the Liberal Party’s name attached to Hanson, she gained a high profile and managed to win the seat with a large swing.
Hanson was a prominent independent MP and, in 1997, founded the One Nation party in support of her political views. The party had a strong result at the Queensland state election in early 1998 and she was predicted to perform strongly at the next federal election. Her hopes fell short at the 1998 election, where One Nation only managed to elect a single Senator, despite a national result of over 8%. Hanson contested the new seat of Blair, which now covered Ipswich, which had previously been included in Oxley. Despite coming first on primary votes, Hanson lost due to the ALP and Liberal Party swapping preferences.
Pauline Hanson repeatedly run for election after losing her seat in 1998, and finally returned to parliament as a senator in 2016.
Hanson’s seat of Oxley was won in 1998 by ALP candidate Bernie Ripoll, and he held the seat until his retirement in 2016.
Ripoll was succeeded by Labor’s Milton Dick, and Dick has been re-elected twice.
Milton Dick was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives after the 2022 federal election.
- Milton Dick (Labor)
- Brandan Holt (Greens)
- William Tento (Family First)
Assessment
Oxley is a reasonably safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Milton Dick | Labor | 43,785 | 45.9 | +3.4 |
| Kyle McMillen | Liberal National | 27,385 | 28.7 | -5.9 |
| Asha Worsteling | Greens | 13,595 | 14.2 | +2.6 |
| Dylan Kozlowski | One Nation | 5,568 | 5.8 | -0.5 |
| Timothy Coombes | United Australia | 5,079 | 5.3 | +2.7 |
| Informal | 3,582 | 3.6 | -1.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Milton Dick | Labor | 58,768 | 61.6 | +5.2 |
| Kyle McMillen | Liberal National | 36,644 | 38.4 | -5.2 |
Booths have been divided into three areas. Booths in the City of Ipswich have been grouped as ‘South-West’. Booths in the City of Brisbane have been split into South-East and North.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 58.1% in the north to 67.9% in the south-east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14.6% in the south-east to 17.7% in the north, but polled just 12.8% on the pre-poll vote.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 15.4 | 62.4 | 16,372 | 17.2 |
| South-East | 14.6 | 67.9 | 14,942 | 15.7 |
| North | 17.7 | 58.1 | 9,184 | 9.6 |
| Pre-poll | 12.8 | 59.7 | 32,988 | 34.6 |
| Other votes | 13.9 | 61.0 | 21,926 | 23.0 |
Election results in Oxley at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and the Greens.
Given the death of Bill Hayden today, I would think this seat is a possibility to be renamed at the next redistribution. Or the name Hayden could be applied to a new QLD seat in the future.
Agree possibly to a new seat in future could be named Hayden but as not a PM not likely to automatically be renamed.
It could be renamed as he was GG, There is a few seats named after GG’s such as Hasluck and Isaacs. Rankin could also be a candidate to rename the seat to Hayden.
If we are renaming Queensland divisions after GGs, I suggest renaming Maranoa to Gundsynd.
Very clever Watson.
I doubt Rankin would get renamed as it was named after Dame Annabelle Rankin, and there is a vast minority of seats named for women. In Queensland, only five of the current seats (Rankin, Moncrieff, Longman, Fairfax and Wright) are named for women. Four seats are named for geographical features (Capricornia, Wide Bay, Maranoa and McPherson).
Oxley, whilst being the name of a Federation seat, was abolished in 1934 and recreated in 1949.
NQ View,
I thought Herbert and Dawson were named after rivers and McPherson was named after the mountain range on the NSW/Qld border.
Watson,
You’d think so, but not quite. Herbert was named after the first premier of Queensland, Robert Herbert, and not the river near Ingham that was within its boundaries when it was first established. Dawson was named after the first Labor premier of Queensland, Anderson Dawson, who held the job for a week and later became Christian Watson’s defence minister. As best I can tell, the Dawson River has never been within the Dawson electorate.
Although, looking at Wikipedia, it seems the Herbert River too was named for Robert Herbert. So there you go. The division of Herbert was named for the premier though, not the river.
@ NP
to assist you to calculate Oxley
State seats
1. All of Inala
2. Parts of Mount Omananey, Algester, Budamba and Jordan
Booths suburbs
1. Augustine Heights
2. Bellbird Park
3. Camira
4. Carole Park
5. Collingwood Park
6. Darra
7. Durrack
8. Forest Lake
9. Gailes
10. Goodna
11. Inala
12. Jamboree Heights
13. Jindalee
13. Middle Park
14. Mount Omananey
15. Oxley
16. Pallara
17. Redbank
18. Redbank Plains
19. Richlands
20. Serviceton South (Inala)
21. Seventeen Miles Rocks
22. Springfield
23. Springfield Lakes
@Nimalan thanks, I’ll look at that tomorrow.
State level TPP here (2024):
* Labor: 62.5%
* LNP: 37.3%
Labor did just 0.9% better on the state level in 2024 than on the federal level in 2022 here, which is significantly less than seats in Moreton Bay but closer to the difference in the Redlands area (Bowman). Why Labor didn’t overperform here is probably because of crime. This is seat has the highest crime rate in Queensland and contains most of the suburbs regarded as being among the most dangerous in Queensland (the others are in Forde and Rankin).
@NP
This seat also includes the wealthy Centenary suburbs so maybe that is the reason they did not significantly over perform it is possible that in the wealthy suburbs in Mount Omaneny Crisfaulli did better than Scomo in 2022.
@Nimalan I get your thinking, but looking at the booth results, Labor did better on the state level this time than on the federal level in most of Mount Ommaney (albeit not by that much), but in Inala they did worse.
Essentially Labor did better in the state level in places like Jindalee but worse in places like Forest Lake and Inala. However, they still did better in the Mount Ommaney suburbs than in those in Inala.
Interestingly on the council level the LNP do WAY better. In 2024 they got up to 70% TPP in Mount Ommaney booths like Middle Park and Seventeen Mile Rocks despite them normally voting Labor.
Urban seats:
* Calculated so far: Bonner, Bowman, Brisbane, Longman, Oxley, Rankin, Ryan
* To calculate: Blair, Dickson, Fadden, Fairfax, Fisher, Forde, Griffith, Herbert, Lilley, McPherson, Moncrieff, Moreton
@ NP
Which seat would you like me to get ready for you next 🙂
@Nether Portal council LNP did better than State LNP in Mount Ommaney because Labor almost ran dead in Jamboree Ward (they didn’t even have people on some booths on election day), plus the fact that the council LNP are more moderate and more appealing in Brisbane than the state LNP.
@Nimalan maybe Blair or Forde.
@AA true but the gap is huge. Sarah Hutton must be a popular councillor in Jamboree Ward.
i think Blair is the most interesting followed by Dickson and then Griffith.
@ np
I will do Blair tonight
@Nimalan thanks.
@Nether Portal:
Labor never did anything in Council, even going back to the Clem Jones administration, sewering Brisbane had commenced under Lord Mayor Groom in the 1950s.
The Atkinson administration set out beautifying brisbane, Newman, Quirk Schrinner followed her lead, the city had been transformed.
That’s why Labor areas vote LNP for BCC.
If they folowed the State voting pattern, LNP would have about 3 councillors, not 20 odd.
According to The Poll Bludger, this seat contains:
* 9% of Algester
* 50% of Bundamba
* 100% of Inala
* 63% of Jordan
* 76% of Mount Ommaney
This will be my electorate by the time of the election.
While I don’t intend to vote for Labor anyway, it has made me reflect on how I feel about having the Speaker as my MP.
Why should I (or anyone else) vote for someone who has for the entire term been incapacitated from representing their constituents? I vote for a candidate to vote on legislation and engage in debate and discourse. Dick has not done that at all.
I say this with the utmost respect for Dick. He has been a good Speaker and is, from everything I have seen, a very respectable person.
My point is a matter of principle. The requirement that the Speaker be an MP is one of the silliest features of the Westminster system. Constituents of the Speaker have no representation.
@nicholas unfortunately someone has to be speaker.
I agree with John, there is no point complaining about this. Even in the US the speaker is an elected representative.
Technically, the speaker can still put out their representation of the electorate, just not through parliamentary debate or public forums. The speaker can technically still write to ministers and the PM advocating for their constituents, something that we have here that I’m not sure if the Westminster System in the UK allows given their speaker severs all their party affiliation upon election and run virtually unopposed.
From what I’ve seen Milton Dick has been fairly involved in his community and engages well with constituents. It’s not as if his speakership has stopped him from being able to work in his electorate outside parliamentary hours. Plus if that was really an issue then previous speakers would all have been voted out by their constituents if they weren’t up to the job, but none of them have lost their seats since Littleton Groom all the way back in 1929 I think.
@Nimalan
The situation in the US is different given the role of the speaker there is much more partisan.
Don’t you think it’s a bit harsh to say there is “no point complaining about this”? The same is not said when people “complain” about MPs switching parties, crossing the floor, or breaking promises on how they would vote. Surely forfeiting the ability to debate or vote on legislation altogether is at least just as significant.
@Tommo9
I agree that Dick has been engaged in his community which is a very positive thing. But the prime responsibility of a MP is to vote and debate on legislation. Everything else is secondary or supplementary to that.
I guess I can only speak for myself and say that it is very much an issue to me. If a candidate is likely to become Speaker, I will vote as if that candidate is likely to be an abstentionist, because functionally, as a representative, the two are equivalent.
@nicholas i believe the prime responisbility of an MP is to represent their cunstitents concerns and needs. there has to be a speaker its a simple as that. someone has to do it.
Littleton Groom helped bring down the Bruce Government in 1929 so was expelled and lost his seat as an independent. Sir William Aston was speaker and lost Phillip in 1972.
There is nothing stopping the Speaker helping their constituents – they just can’t vote on a day to day basis. They of course have the deciding vote in a tie. Not sure when that was last used.
@ Nicholas
Apologies, i did not mean to be disrespectful and i know it came across blunt. Winston Churchill once said “democracy is the worst form of government with the exception of all others that have been tried before”. I hear what you are saying but i cant see an alternative. I am not sure what occurs in the French Semi-Presidential system. It is a bit like when someone suggested a North QLD state, i quickly said it was a distraction.
In the event of a hung parliament who becomes speaker? Either govt would be hesitant to give up a crucial vote
@John an independent. Or Bob Katter if he’s up for it.
@NP na most of the independents including Katter will not giver up their vote or their chance to speak in parliament to represent the constituents. It would be a cold day in hell before Katter was speaker he is outspoken and would not give up his vote or right to speak in parliament. Andrew Gee might be an option if hes reelected in Calare.
usually they try and find a defector in the oppostion to become speaker as they did in NSW in the upper house with Ben Franklin and in 2010 with Peter Slipper since the crossbenchers dont want to give up their vote/ability to speak.
I updated my enrolment last week so this is now officially my electorate.
From what I’ve seen, Charis Mullen has been very active in campaigning for Dick (at least where I am, which overlaps with Jordan district). I actually said hi to her once – there were Labor campaigners around but no sign of Dick. One of the few signs I’ve seen for Dick has a sign for Mullen right next to it.
I can see my choices so far are the Speaker, the Greens, and the woke right (yes, that’s how I think of them).
When are the LNP going to put forward a candidate? Other state branches of the Liberal Party have nominated candidates in even more unwinnable seats. Do they feel guilt campaigning in the Speaker’s seat?
@nicholas they wont win oxley not achnace
@NP Bob Katter as speaker would be a disaster but now you’ve awakened my curiosity
Bob might have one problem with being Speaker – he would have to turn up!! He probably has the worst attendance record in the Reps. Could also be a problem should Dutton want to depend on his vote.
Bob Katter as speaker in a hung parliament… that would be the most entertaining parliament in Australian history.
Agree Nick G and Nicholas, Bob Katter is known for his ‘colourful’ language and often doesn’t respect the parliamentary standing orders so he would be a controversial choice for Speaker. The chamber environment if Katter were Speaker would probably be very unruly.
katter wont be speaker he would want his vote to count. and he wouldnt be able to hear himself talk on his favourite subjects.
@john
I am aware. Sad that I’ve moved from one irrelevant seat (Mitchell) to another! Maybe the redistribution after the election will put me into a more competitive seat.
whereabouts in kennedy if you dont mind me asking
oxley i meant
Nicholas, it all depends on how this election plays out. If the Coalition get a majority or close to it (70+ seats) they could be in a position to take office, and Milton Dick would no longer be Speaker in such a scenario.
I’m in the southwest of the electorate, in Greater Springfield.
Surprisingly my home district (Brisbane) is having a rematch between the same 3 main candidates as last time. Trevor Evans (former MP) running as LNP candidate, Madonna Jarrett as Labor candidate and the incumbent Greens MP Steven Bates.
Looking at current enrolment figures, most outer suburban districts (Longman, Blair, Wright and Petrie) are heavily over quota by 5% or more whilst several middle ring districts (Moreton, Rankin, Ryan, Lilley and Dickson) are substantially under quota.
This suggests the redistribution (if Queensland stays at 30 seats) will require those outer suburban districts to shed some of their territory and cause the middle ring seats to expand outwards.
haha sry brother your gonna be stuck in an even safe seat for labor after the redistribution as it shifts west. your only hope is a exrta seat then your probably getting moved to blair.
Surely any change that splits Greater Springfield from the Inala area would put me into a more competitive seat?