Incumbent Senators
- Malarndirri McCarthy (Labor)
- Jacinta Nampijinpa Price (Country Liberal)
History
The Northern Territory first elected Senators in 1975, when the Labor Party and the Country Liberal Party each won a single seat. Both parties have maintained this 1-1 split at every election since, with no serious challenge to this status quo.
The strongest ever minor party performance came in 1987, when the Northern Territory National Party, who were not endorsed by the federal Nationals, ran for the Senate and polled over 14%. This election saw the CLP fall below a quota (polling 32.5%) for the only time in three decades of Senate elections. The National Party never ran again for the Senate in the Northern Territory, and the CLP recovered to a primary vote above 40% in 1990. The 1987 election saw the ALP top the poll for the first time, and ever since then the party that won the federal election has topped the poll in the Northern Territory, with the CLP winning in 1996, 1998, 2001, 2004 and 2010; and the ALP coming first in 2007.
In 1998 the CLP fell below 40% for the second time when One Nation polled 9.3%, but they still safely won a quota.
In 2010, the ALP suffered a 12.6% swing against them. That vote was split between the Shooters and Fishers and the Sex Party, who hadn’t run before, and a 4.7% swing to the Greens.
Trish Crossin stepped down in 2013 after losing preselection to Nova Peris. Peris served in the Senate until shortly before the 2016 election, when she was succeeded by Malarndirri McCarthy.
Scullion retired at the 2019 election, and the CLP seat was filled by Sam McMahon.
McMahon was defeated for CLP Senate preselection in 2021 by Alice Springs councillor Jacinta Nampijinpa Price. McMahon resigned from the Country Liberal Party in January 2022, and eventually joined the Liberal Democrats.
Price ended up winning at the 2022 election.
| Group | Votes | % | Swing | Quota |
| Labor | 34,163 | 33.0 | -4.5 | 0.9891 |
| Country Liberal | 32,846 | 31.7 | -5.0 | 0.9510 |
| Greens | 12,707 | 12.3 | +2.1 | 0.3679 |
| Liberal Democrats | 9,609 | 9.3 | +9.3 | 0.2782 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 6,455 | 6.2 | +2.4 | 0.1869 |
| Great Australian Party | 4,573 | 4.4 | +4.4 | 0.1324 |
| Sustainable Australia | 1,715 | 1.7 | +1.7 | 0.0497 |
| Citizens Party | 956 | 0.9 | +0.5 | 0.0277 |
| Others | 593 | 0.6 | 0.0172 | |
| Informal | 3,290 | 3.1 |
- A – Ian Chivers (Sustainable Australia)
- B – Lance Lawrence (Legalise Cannabis Party)
- C – Malarndirri McCarthy (Labor)
- D – Jacinta Nampijinpa Price (Country Liberal)
- E – Aia Newport (Greens)
- F – Darren Nugent (One Nation)
- G – Lionel Wylie (Citizens Party)
- H – Jed Hansen (Libertarian)
- Ungrouped
- Que Kenny (Independent)
Assessment
Labor and the Country Liberal Party should retain one seat each.
A Redbridge poll for the 2024 NT general election has a huge lead for the CLP and all I can say is “holy shit”. The poll has Labor’s vote halved and would result in Lia Finocchiaro’s CLP winning in a landslide despite Dutton’s Coalition holding no federal NT seats, while Natasha Fyles’ Labor government would have their lowest vote share in history (and probably the lowest vote share the party has every received at a federal or state/territory election since Federation). Here were the voting intention results:
CLP: 40.6% (+9.3%)
Labor: 19.7% (-19.7%)
Independents: 14.0% (+3.3%)
Others: 24.8% (+6.2%)
To break down the “others” category:
Greens: 13.1% (+8.6%)
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers: 9.4% (+9.4%)
Animal Justice: 2.4% (+2.3%)
The TPP estimate based on preference flows that I’ve calculated using an online tool gives the TPP result as:
CLP: 56.5% (+9.8%)
Labor: 43.5% (-9.8%)
Many are sceptical of Labor only receiving 19.7% of the vote, but there’s no way this poll was rigged or disproportionate enough to have otherwise given Labor the lead. It’s clear that the CLP have an increasingly good chance of winning the next election.
Despite that poll, the bookies still have Labor as favourites last time I checked.
Theres no way the CLP is only on 56% on TPP with a 21% gap on the primary vote, I suspect preferences will flow more strongly to the CLP under that scenario and will be something like 61-39 or so and the CLP would win all but 3 Labor held seats in my opinion since it won’t be uniform.
Based on the poll I’d be putting money on the clp.
I think the crime wave did play a part on why NT has a high No vote for Voice referendum and may also play a role on ALP losing NT
@Daniel T the reason the CLP’s 56% TPP and a 40.6% primary vote would be because the margin between the Labor primary vote and the Greens primary vote is much narrower than the margin between the CLP primary vote and the Labor primary vote. As everyone knows, Greens preferences overwhelmingly flow to Labor.
My understanding is that Albanese and Fyles are deeply unpopular in the NT.
In the impossible situation of a uniform swing, using the 9.8% swing from the last election (excluding by-elections) and overriding the TCP with a notional TPP margin (i.e CLP vs Labor), the pendulum would look like this:
Government — CLP:
Fannie Bay: 0.2%
Drysdale: 1.8%
Arafura: 6.2%
Fong Lim: 7.2%
Port Darwin: 7.9%
Blain: 9.6%
Barkly: 9.9%
Namatjira: 10.1%
Brennan: 11.0%
Braitling: 11.1%
Katherine: 12.1%
Daly: 11.0%
Araluen: 22.4%
Spillet: 24.0%
Goyder: 24.2%
Nelson: 32.6%
Opposition — Labor:
Casuarina: 6.1%
Gwoja: 6.4%
Johnston: 6.7%
Wanguri: 7.5%
Arnhem: 7.8%
Sanderson: 9.5%
Nightcliff: 14.5%
Even split:
Karama — 0.0%
Impossible to calculate:
Mulka — only two candidates ran in Mulka in 2020: the independent MP (Yingiya Mark Guyula) and a Labor candidate (Lynn Walker). The CLP ran in 2016 but not in 2020.
This would mean the CLP would gain Arafura, Drysdale, Fannie Bay, Fong Lim and Port Darwin from Labor (as well as possibly Karama which is currently on a 9.8% margin so a 9.8% swing would make it 0.0%), as well as three independent-held seats (Araluen, Blain and Goyder). Labor would ultimately be cut down to just seven seats, though none would be marginal. However, geographically it would mean that Labor has been almost wiped out everywhere except the Northern Suburbs of Darwin, with Arnhem and Gwoja being the only Labor-held seats outside Darwin.
Jacinta Price was today confirmed as the clp candidate for nt senate spot
@John great pick. Jacinta Price is an excellent Senator.
Jacinta Price is under investigation for her potential misuse of expenses for the 14th time
What’s the situation here? Are these investigations routine for every Senator, or does there have to be a complaint made?
Fool me once, shame on you.
Fool me twice, three times, fourteen times….
Yea I’d say she’s just the target of a hate group particularly because of her role in the voice campaign. If she’s been investigated 13 times and cleared 13 times chances are it’s all up to standard. You’ve got to remember travelling from Alice Springs to anywhere is expensive due to its remoteness and how flights are not as frequent as anywhere else and generally more expensive.
Price hasnt been cleared 13 times, shes has paid the money back 13 times.