Incumbent Senators
| Term due to expire 2025 | Term due to expire 2028 |
| Tim Ayres (Labor) | Ross Cadell (Nationals) |
| Andrew Bragg (Liberal) | Maria Kovacic (Liberal)1 |
| Perin Davey (Nationals) | Jenny McAllister (Labor) |
| Mehreen Faruqi (Greens) | Deborah O’Neill (Labor) |
| Hollie Hughes (Liberal) | Dave Sharma (Liberal)2 |
| Tony Sheldon (Labor) | David Shoebridge (Greens) |
1Maria Kovacic replaced Jim Molan on 31 May 2023 following Molan’s death.
1Dave Sharma replaced Marise Payne on 30 November 2023 following Payne’s resignation.
History
Dating back to 1951, when the Senate for the first time was entirely made up of Senators elected by proportional representation, Senate representation from New South Wales has been relatively stable.
Up until 1958 the numbers remained steady with 5 ALP senators, 4 Liberal senators and 1 Country Party senator. 1958 saw the Country Party win a seat off the ALP, giving the Coalition a 6-4 majority amongst NSW senators.
The ALP gained two seats in 1961, giving them a 6-4 majority. The Country Party recovered a second seat in 1964, restoring an even balance of ALP and Coalition senators. In 1970, the sitting Country Party senator was defeated, as was the Country Party senator who had filled a casual vacancy, meaning that the party lost both its seats, while the Democratic Labor Party won a NSW senate seat for the only time. The result produced a 6-4 majority for the ALP over the right-wing parties.
The 1974 double dissolution restored the 5-4-1 balance between the Labor, Liberal and Country Party, which was maintained in 1975. 1977 saw the ALP lose one of its five senate seats to the Australian Democrats. This 4-4-1-1 balance was maintained in 1980. The 1983 double dissolution saw the Liberal Party lose a seat to the ALP, seeing five ALP senators, three Liberals, and one senator each for the Democrats and National Country Party. This result produced a 6-4 majority for parties of the left for the first time 1970. The ALP and Democrats collectively maintained a majority in the NSW senate delegation for the entirety of the Labor government.
The 1984 election saw the Senate’s size increased, with New South Wales gaining an eleventh and twelfth senator. The Democrats and the National Country Party each maintained a single senator whilst the ALP gained a sixth and the Liberals a fourth. The 1987 double dissolution saw the ALP lose its sixth senator to the Nuclear Disarmament Party. The 1990 election saw the ALP and Democrats each gain a senator, at the expense of the Liberals and NDP, producing a result of 6 ALP, 3 Liberals, 2 Democrats, 1 National. This gave the ALP and Democrats an 8-4 majority. In 1993 the Democrats lost a seat, with the Nationals gaining a second senator in NSW for the first time since 1970.
In 1996, the ALP lost a senate seat to the Liberals, producing an even split between the ALP and Democrats and the Coalition. The left gained a majority again, however, in 1998, when the Nationals lost a senator to the Democrats. In 2001, Democrat Vickie Bourne was defeated by Greens candidate Kerry Nettle, maintaining a 7-5 left-right split.
The last Democrat, Aden Ridgeway, was defeated in 2004, replaced by Nationals candidate Fiona Nash, restoring a 6-6 split between the ALP and Greens and the Coalition. The 2007 election saw the ALP win a sixth senate seat at the expense of the Greens. This was the first election since 1975 to result with NSW having no minor party senators, with a 6-6 split between the ALP and the Coalition.
In 2010, the Greens won back a single Greens seat, with former state MP Lee Rhiannon moving to the Senate. The ALP lost one of their three seats to the Greens, while the Liberal Party maintained their three seats.
In 2013, the Coalition maintained their three seats, while Labor lost their third seat to the Liberal Democrats’ David Leyonhjelm. The LDP benefited from a massive donkey vote thanks to a good ballot position on an extremely large ballot, polling 9.5%. Labor was reduced to four NSW senators for the first time since the Senate was expanded.
The 2016 double dissolution only produced one change in the party balance. Labor maintained four seats, while the Greens and the Liberal Democrats held on to their single seats. The Coalition lost one of their six seats, which went to One Nation.
The right-wing minor parties were pushed out in 2019. The Liberal Democrats lost their single seat, while Brian Burston, who had left One Nation and joined the United Australia Party, also lost. Both Labor and the Coalition gained a seat.
The 2022 election saw the Greens gain a second seat at the expense of Labor, while the Coalition maintained six seats (although the Nationals regained a second seat).
| Group | Votes | % | Swing | Quota |
| Liberal/Nationals | 1,763,074 | 36.7 | -1.9 | 2.5708 |
| Labor | 1,461,172 | 30.4 | +0.6 | 2.1306 |
| Greens | 550,069 | 11.5 | +2.8 | 0.8021 |
| One Nation | 198,121 | 4.1 | -0.9 | 0.2889 |
| United Australia | 162,262 | 3.4 | +1.9 | 0.2366 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 125,001 | 2.6 | +0.5 | 0.1823 |
| Animal Justice | 103,239 | 2.2 | +1.2 | 0.1505 |
| Liberal Democrats | 101,780 | 2.1 | +0.2 | 0.1484 |
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 91,143 | 1.9 | -0.6 | 0.1329 |
| Indigenous – Aboriginal Party | 38,970 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.0568 |
| Reason | 30,307 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.0442 |
| Sustainable Australia | 25,356 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 0.0370 |
| Others | 150,228 | 3.1 | 0.2190 | |
| Informal | 195,388 | 3.9 |
Preference flows
Four seats were won on primary votes: two for the Coalition and two for Labor.
We can now fast forward to the last nine candidates contesting those last two seats:
- David Shoebridge (GRN) – 0.8873 quotas
- Jim Molan (LIB) – 0.5973
- Kate McCulloch (ON) – 0.3217
- Domenic Martino (UAP) – 0.2561
- Michael Balderstone (LGC) – 0.2239
- Darren Brollo (AJP) – 0.1812
- Shireen Morris (ALP) – 0.1741
- John Ruddick (LDP) – 0.1691
- Shane Djuric (SFF) – 0.1601
Shooters preferences flowed most strongly to Legalise Cannabis, followed by One Nation, the Liberal Party and Labor. This was enough to push Labor ahead of Animal Justice.
- Shoebridge (GRN) – 0.8936
- Molan (LIB) – 0.6197
- McCulloch (ON) – 0.3536
- Martino (UAP) – 0.2675
- Balderstone (LGC) – 0.2644
- Morris (ALP) – 0.1918
- Brollo (AJP) – 0.1897
- Ruddick (LDP) – 0.1770
Liberal Democrat preferences flowed most strongly to Molan, followed by Labor, United Australia and One Nation:
- Shoebridge (GRN) – 0.9021
- Molan (LIB) – 0.6711
- McCulloch (ON) – 0.3802
- Martino (UAP) – 0.2942
- Balderstone (LGC) – 0.2744
- Morris (ALP) – 0.2268
- Brollo (AJP) – 0.1937
Animal Justice preferences flowed very strongly to the Greens, followed by Legalise Cannabis, Liberal and Labor:
- Shoebridge (GRN) – 0.9834
- Molan (LIB) – 0.6914
- McCulloch (ON) – 0.3910
- Balderstone (LGC) – 0.3066
- Martino (UAP) – 0.3018
- Morris (ALP) – 0.2451
Labor preferences then elected Greens senator David Shoebridge with a small surplus. His surplus then favoured Legalise Cannabis
- Molan (LIB) – 0.7438
- McCulloch (ON) – 0.4106
- Balderstone (LGC) – 0.3478
- Martino (UAP) – 0.3339
United Australia preferences mostly favour One Nation:
- Molan (LIB) – 0.7956
- McCulloch (ON) – 0.5948
- Balderstone (LGC) – 0.3871
Legalise Cannabis preferences flowed slightly more strongly to One Nation than to Liberal, but it wasn’t close to enough to put One Nation in front, and Molan won the final seat:
- Molan (LIB) – 0.8612
- McCulloch (ON) – 0.6940
Molan’s final margin was 0.167 quotas, or 114,680 votes.
- Labor
- Liberal/Nationals
- Andrew Bragg (Liberal)
- Jessica Collins (Liberal)
- Perin Davey (Nationals)
- Hollie Hughes (Liberal)
- Mehreen Faruqi (Greens)
- Miles Hunt (Legalise Cannabis)
- Craig Kelly (Libertarian)
- Glenn Kolomeitz (Jacqui Lambie Network)
- Lyle Shelton (Family First)
- Warwick Stacey (One Nation)
Assessment
It seems very likely that the combined left will retain three seats and the combined right will also retain three seats in 2025. It would require quite a big swing to change that outcome.
There will be two seats in play: if Labor can gain a swing towards them, they could challenge for the Greens seat. Legalise Cannabis could also be in with a chance if they do well.
On the other side, the Coalition will be competing with One Nation and other right-wing minor parties for the third right-wing seat, but the Coalition will be favoured.
I wasn’t saying that they were that effective, and their views on climate change definitely aren’t mainstream, but literally every sane person agrees that anti-Semitism = bad
@ Scart
First and foremost i condemn Antisemitism as a vile form of bigotry which led to worst crime in Human history during World War II , i am blessed to have Jewish friends and the Jewish Community has made an immense contribution to this country like Issac Issacs, Sir John Monash, Vida Goldstein and Vaiben Solomon all which even have federal electorates named after them. I am on a unity ticket with you on that. My concern is that Advance has an agenda which is not about the Greens at all but about pushing the Libs further right and even abandoning the Teal seats thats all.
Methinks Mehreen Faruqi will retain her seat. The primary vote gap last election was 7.5% between the Greens and the 4th group. Most likely the senate result will be LNP 3, ALP 2, GRN 1.
Redbridge polling shows that Labor’s support is holding up or even strengthening in the inner city. A loss of Greens votes in the inner city will be offset by a rise in the Greens vote in south-western and western Sydney. The Palestine issue is really hitting Labor hard, but it doesn’t seem that Labor MPs such as Tony Burke and Jason Clare are too fazed.
I sense that Faruqi will be campaigning heavily in Wills in Victoria next year as it is a target seat, as there’s no winnable HoR seat in metro Sydney.
Ben why doesn’t anybody consider a double dissolution election? The trigger exists. There is a lot of non performers & defectors & weirdos in the Senate now. I can’t see Labor has anything to lose & may get back 5th seat in WA. Greens & Liberals might be happy too as it makes the place more credible? Sort of seems a no brainer?
You can’t call a DD in the last six months before the House expires, which means they ran out of time in January.
Putting that aside, the 2022 cohort is a substantially more progressive group than 2019 so you’re probably electing a more right-wing Senate. And if you care about eliminating the independents like Payman and Thorpe, the low quota only boosts small parties.
Half-senate gets rid of the 2019 cohort, which is tilted towards the Liberals. The 2022 cohort is quite left-wing and Labor has a lot of room for passing legislation with them, no matter how many disputes there are in the media. The fact is that just getting rid of the 2019 cohort is their best path towards a favourable chamber, unless they are confident in a landslide (which there is no current indication of).
A big reason to call a DD is to get a friendlier senate. There was talk about it on Tally Room in mid-2023. Labor missed their chance then. Since the 2019 cohort was mainly right-wing, a DD would’ve benefited Labor. For most of 2023, up to the voice referendum, Labor was polling quite alright.
If 2022 was a DD it would seem that One Nation would have 5 senators – all but Vic and the UAP 2 – Vic and Qld. Cannabis 1 (Qld) and Jacquie Lambie. Not sure if Greens would have 12. A DD would let more Nutties in.