NAT 2.3% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Sam Birrell, since 2022.
Geography
North-western Victoria. Murray covers all of Greater Shepparton and Moira council areas and parts of Campaspe, Strathbogie and Mitchell council areas. The largest towns in Murray are Shepparton and Echuca.
Redistribution
Nicholls gained Kilmore from McEwen, and lost Pyalong, Tooborac and Rochester to Bendigo.
The electorate of Nicholls was created in 2019 as a new name for the seat of Murray, which was created at the 1949 election. It has always been held by Coalition parties. It was held by the Country Party and National Party until 1996, when it was won by the Liberal Party, who held it until 2016.
The seat was first won in 1949 by the Country Party’s John McEwen. McEwen had previously held Echuca from 1934 until it was abolished in 1937, and then held Indi from 1937 until 1949.
He served as a minister in the Coalition government from 1937 to 1941. He then became a minister in the Menzies government in 1949. McEwen became Country Party leader in 1958.
When Robert Menzies retired in 1966 McEwen became the most senior figure in the government, with tremendous influence over the Country Party’s larger ally, the Liberal Party.
When Prime Minister Harold Holt disappeared in late 1967, McEwen briefly served as Acting Prime Minister, and he vetoed the choice of the Treasurer, William McMahon, leading to Senator John Gorton moving to the House of Representatives and becoming Prime Minister. McEwen retired from Murray in 1971.
The 1971 by-election was won by Bruce Lloyd, also of the Country Party. Lloyd served as deputy leader of the National Party from 1987 to 1993, and retired in 1996.
At the 1996 election, the Liberal Party stood Sharman Stone, and the Nationals stood John Walker. The ALP candidate was pushed into third place, with Stone polling 43% of the primary vote, and winning on preferences.
Stone held Murray for twenty years, winning the seat seven times before retiring in 2016.
The Nationals’ Damian Drum ran for Murray in 2016 against Liberal candidate Duncan McGauchie. Drum was elected with a margin of 5.1% against the Liberal Party. Drum was re-elected in 2019 to the renamed seat of Nicholls.
Drum retired in 2022. Both the Liberal and Nationals parties contested the seat, but the Nationals’ Sam Birrrell retained the seat.
- Sam Birrell (Nationals)
- Jeff Davy (Citizens Party)
Assessment
Nicholls is very marginal, but the circumstances have changed since 2022 and no independent is yet to put up their hands. In the absence of an independent challenge, this seat should be safe for the Nationals.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sam Birrell | Nationals | 24,886 | 26.1 | -25.1 | 24.3 |
| Rob Priestly | Independent | 24,287 | 25.5 | +25.5 | 24.1 |
| Steve Brooks | Liberal | 17,187 | 18.1 | +18.1 | 19.0 |
| Bill Lodwick | Labor | 10,970 | 11.5 | -7.9 | 13.2 |
| Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell | One Nation | 6,219 | 6.5 | -4.8 | 6.6 |
| Robert Peterson | United Australia | 3,821 | 4.0 | -1.3 | 4.1 |
| Ian Christoe | Greens | 3,058 | 3.2 | -1.0 | 3.7 |
| Tim Laird | Liberal Democrats | 3,366 | 3.5 | +3.5 | 3.5 |
| Andrea Otto | Fusion | 653 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.6 |
| Eleonor Tabone | Federation Party | 367 | 0.4 | +0.4 | 0.5 |
| Jeff Davy | Citizens Party | 377 | 0.4 | +0.4 | 0.4 |
| Informal | 8,159 | 7.9 | +0.4 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sam Birrell | Nationals | 51,221 | 53.8 | 52.3 | |
| Rob Priestly | Independent | 43,970 | 46.2 | 47.7 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sam Birrell | Nationals | 63,918 | 67.1 | -2.9 | 65.8 |
| Bill Lodwick | Labor | 31,273 | 32.9 | +2.9 | 34.2 |
Booths have been divided into five areas along local government boundaries.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in three areas, ranging from 57.7% in Moira to 59.4% in Strathbogie. The independent won the 2CP in Greater Shepparton with 52.4%. In the southern Mitchell area, which includes areas previously contained in McEwen, the independent and Labor between them won 51.9% of the two-candidate-preferred vote.
| Voter group | ALP prim | LIB prim | NAT 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Greater Shepparton | 8.7 | 14.0 | 47.6 | 16,626 | 16.9 |
| Campaspe | 8.5 | 13.7 | 59.1 | 9,654 | 9.8 |
| Moira | 10.3 | 21.2 | 57.7 | 7,107 | 7.2 |
| Mitchell | 29.0 | 25.2 | 48.1 | 5,172 | 5.2 |
| Strathbogie | 11.7 | 19.6 | 59.4 | 1,572 | 1.6 |
| Pre-poll | 13.2 | 20.2 | 53.7 | 45,304 | 45.9 |
| Other votes | 17.6 | 21.5 | 53.2 | 13,175 | 13.4 |
Election results in Nicholls at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Nationals vs Independent or Labor), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, independent candidates, the Liberal Party and Labor.
Interesting as the state electorate of Shepparton switched back to Nationals, personally I reckon National hold with margin staying about the same.
Given they’re now in opposition and state labor is in all sorts of trouble the coalition should retain all it’s current seats and maybe pickup some. Either way the swing will be too them not against them.
One of the most marginal Coalition seats on paper, but I think everyone agrees that this does not have the same ‘Teal’ potential that Bradfield, Cowper and Wannon do.
Very safe NAT 15.8% except for the unlikely scenario that Rob Priestly decides to run again.
There’s no sign of Rob Priestly or any other independent running. The Nats should easily retain this if they’re absent.
BTW @Ben Raue, the history you have up there is for Deakin, not Nicholls.