NAT 15.2%
Incumbent MP
Barnaby Joyce, since 2013. Previously Senator for Queensland 2005-2013.
Geography
The New England region of northern NSW. The main towns include Tamworth, Armidale and Glen Innes. New England covers Armidale Dumaresq, Glen Innes Severn, Guyra, Gwydir, Inverell, Liverpool Plains, Muswellbrook, Tamworth, Tenterfield, Upper Hunter, Uralla and Walcha council areas.
Redistribution
New England expanded to the north-west and south, taking in the remainder of the Gwydir council area from Parkes and the Muswellbrook council area from Hunter. These changes cut the Nationals margin from 16.2% to 15.4%.
New England is an original federation electorate, and has been mostly won by conservative parties. The seat was held by the Country Party and National Party from 1920 until 2001, when it was won by independent Tony Windsor.
The seat was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate William Sawers, who had previously been a state MP since 1885. In 1903 he was defeated by Free Trade candidate Edmund Lonsdale, who himself was defeated in 1906 by ALP candidate Francis Foster.
Foster is the only Labor candidate to ever win New England, and was reelected in 1910 before losing the seat in 1913 to Liberal candidate Percy Abbott. Abbott was a serving AIF officer at the time, and served as a Lieutenant Colonel at Gallipoli in 1915 while serving as a member of the House of Representatives. He retired from the House of Representatives in 1919. He later ran for the Senate for the Country Party in 1922 and held a Senate seat from 1925 to 1929.
The seat was won in 1919 by Alexander Hay. Like Abbott, Hay was supported by the Farmers and Settlers Association, and when they formed the Country Party in 1920 he became one of their first MPs. Hay’s time with the Country Party was unhappy and he was expelled in 1922 for voting against the party. He stood at the 1922 election as an independent, losing to official Country Party candidate Victor Thompson.
Thompson held New England for a long period, serving as a minister in conservative federal governments from 1937 to 1940, but lost his seat at the 1940 election, when he was challenged by two other Country Party candidates, and was defeated by Joe Abbott.
Joe Abbott served as a minister in Robert Menzies and Arthur Fadden’s wartime governments, and held the seat until his retirement in 1949. He was succeeded by David Drummond, who had been a state MP since 1920. He held the seat until his retirement in 1963.
The seat was won in 1963 by Ian Sinclair. Sinclair joined Robert Menzies’ ministry in 1965 and served as a minister right up until the election of the Whitlam government in 1972. He returned to the ministry in 1975 and served for the entirety of the Fraser government, barring a period in 1979 and 1980 when he stepped down due to allegations of forgery in relation to his father’s will.
Following the defeat of the Fraser government National Country Party leader Doug Anthony resigned in 1984, and Sinclair succeeded him. In 1989, he was replaced as leader by Charles Blunt, and he went to the backbench. He remained there until 1998, when he served briefly as Speaker in the final months of the first term of the Howard government, before retiring in 1998.
In 1998, New England was won by Nationals candidate Stuart St Clair, whose time in the seat was short-lived. He was defeated in 2001 by independent candidate Tony Windsor, who had held the state seat of Tamworth as an independent since 1991, when he had been deselected as a Nationals candidate.
Windsor held the seat with margins over 70% at the 2004, 2007 and 2010 elections.
After the 2010 election, Windsor found himself in the balance of power, and decided to support Julia Gillard’s minority Labor government, a decision that was controversial in country areas including New England, which usually lean towards the conservative side of politics.
In 2013, the Nationals preselected their Senate leader, Barnaby Joyce, to run in New England. Joyce was at the time a senator representing Queensland. Windsor announced his retirement shortly after, and Joyce was elected in New England with relative ease, ending twelve years of an independent hold on the seat.
Joyce was elected deputy leader of the Nationals shortly after moving to the House, and in early 2016 was elected leader of the Nationals, and thus Deputy Prime Minister. He won a second term as member for New England in 2016, seeing off an attempted return by former MP Tony Windsor.
Barnaby Joyce was caught up in a rash of politicians who were found to hold dual citizenship in 2017. He was found to have failed to meet constitutional obligations by the High Court in October 2017, triggering a December 2017 by-election, which he won easily.
Joyce was forced to resign as Nationals leader in early 2018. He was re-elected in New England in 2019 and returned to the Nationals leadership in June 2021. Joyce retained his seat at the 2022 election, and resigned as Nationals leader shortly after.
- Laura Hughes (Labor)
- Barnaby Joyce (Nationals)
- Brent Larkham (One Nation)
- Holly Masters (Family First)
- Wendy Wales (Greens)
Assessment
New England is a safe Nationals seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Barnaby Joyce | Nationals | 51,036 | 52.5 | -2.4 | 50.8 |
| Laura Hughes | Labor | 18,056 | 18.6 | +5.8 | 19.9 |
| Carol Sparks | Greens | 7,524 | 7.7 | +3.3 | 7.5 |
| Matt Sharpham | Independent | 7,659 | 7.9 | +7.9 | 7.1 |
| Richard Thomas | One Nation | 4,570 | 4.7 | +4.7 | 5.3 |
| Pavlo Samios | Liberal Democrats | 3,174 | 3.3 | +3.3 | 3.0 |
| Cindy Anne Duncan | United Australia | 2,545 | 2.6 | -2.0 | 2.9 |
| Natasha Ledger | Independent | 2,708 | 2.8 | -0.4 | 2.5 |
| Others | 1.0 | ||||
| Informal | 6,494 | 6.3 | -0.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Barnaby Joyce | Nationals | 64,622 | 66.4 | -1.2 | 65.2 |
| Laura Hughes | Labor | 32,650 | 33.6 | +1.2 | 34.8 |
Booths have been divided into six areas. The two main urban areas of Armidale and Tamworth have been grouped together, separately from rural booths in the surrounding areas.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in five out of six areas, ranging from 60.7% in Tamworth to 72.4% in the north. The ALP won 52.5% in Armidale.
| Voter group | NAT 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 64.7 | 12,187 | 11.2 |
| Tamworth | 60.7 | 12,132 | 11.2 |
| North | 72.4 | 10,334 | 9.5 |
| West | 72.1 | 5,924 | 5.5 |
| Armidale | 47.5 | 5,517 | 5.1 |
| East | 70.6 | 3,644 | 3.4 |
| Pre-poll | 65.7 | 47,795 | 44.1 |
| Other votes | 65.3 | 10,907 | 10.1 |
Election results in New England at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, Labor and independent candidates.
I’d be shocked if Barnaby increased his vote share after his drunken escapade on the streets of Canberra, he not only made himself a bigger joke in Australia but an international joke as well.
@Caleb I doubt that would affect his margin. This is a very safe Nationals seat and Labor has only ever held for seven of the 123 years it has existed (Frank Forster served as the member from 1906 until 1913), and that’s not changing anytime soon.
@Caleb that’s a bit disingenuous he was clearly in distress after consuming alcohol mixed with prescription drugs. The person who filmed that without stopping to offer assistance should be more ashamed
I would be surprised if Barnaby doesn’t increase his vote share. Nothing he has done recently is much worse than what he has done before. The voters in New England seem happy with that
id vote for him if i could
Classic regional seat where Labor have totally lost the plot. Back in the 80s they were in spitting distance of winning New England and held the state seat of Northern Tablelands. Then they outsourced to Windsor and Torbay – went swimmingly for a while – especially for them. Then they crashed – spectacularly. What is left – massive National Party margins and Labor playing left right out with consequent losses of morale, resources and most importly – senate votes.
@redistributed that is because the labor has been hijacked by the activists and is no longer the party of the worker most of which in these sorts of seats like coal mining would have been unionised and therefore why they could win just like why labor still win seats like collie Preston, pillars and Kimberley. Bob matter and his father were what they self described as “old labor” but the labor party if the 80s is gone. Bob Hawke would be rolling in his grave.
Hypothetically speaking, is there any conceivable future form of the Labor party that could ever be competitive in or win these regional seats? What kind of policy platform would be needed? Is it even possible for a left-of-centre or centrist party to win conservative rural seats?
Probably not. In the same way a right of centre party could never win inner city seats like Melbourne, Wills, Grayndler, Sydney, Adelaide, Fremantle, Canberra and Clark.
Just wanted to let everyone know that while Labor has already began its campaign in New England, the Nats haven’t bothered.
https://www.instagram.com/laurahughesnewengland/
https://www.facebook.com/LauraHughesLabor
There is a prospect for a Labor win here if Barnaby or his successor really stuffed up and labor found someone you was very popular.
Eg Bill McCarthy Armidale/ nth tablelands
Eg Don Day Casino/ Clarence
Ballina and Lismore stayed with the nats longer than expected based on personal votes
Tweed too eventually will go 5he same way
New England… Labor almost won in 1983
Laurie Daly Was the candidate and Sinclair did not even have an electorate office within new England
Calare/ Bathurst are a similar demographic.. now no chance but later are within range of Labor win
Mick
Problem for Labor in both cases is that they will have to start at zero – they have let everything run down so far there is little left – a few branches and that would be it.
Starting point is np stuffs up
Barnaby’s cattle dog?
Then alp runs an outstanding candidate
Even if Barnaby massacred 100 sheepdogs in the middle of Tamworth the people of New England will probably still vote him back in a landslide.
Labor only has themselves to blame for not giving two hoots about the regions north of the Hunter and west of the divide.
What if. The sheep dog was the nat candidate? Oh s…t it is
Regarding whether Labor could’ve won a seat like this – it has been a non-Labor seat for over 100 years. Except for Tony Windsor, it was always held by a National or Country MP for the past century. Labor was a bit more competitive during the 1980s but it could be partly attributable to Bob Hawke’s and the Labor party’s overall popularity. The Labor vote then steadily declined, after Hawke’s retirement.
The coal mining part is down south where Upper Hunter and Muswellbrook are. A lot of the shrinkage of the coal mining labour force is due to automation and productivity gains. It’s not because of greenies in the Labor party. I read a few weeks back that Port Waratah (Newcastle) saw over 100 million tonnes of coal exports last year – it’s highest amount in a long, long time.
@mick & tommo9 barnaby cheated on his wife with a staffer and got her pregnant then left his wife and kids and married her and still got elected. im pretty half of new england turned up to his wedding too.
labor wont ever win this seat the only chance of nats losing is another really good independent and barnaby retiring.
@votante muswellbrook is close to 50/50 and was more labor at the last election
In New England Labor is not at the moment considered a serious choice here. BUT that can change probably after
Barnaby.. James smythe- Jones the Pitt St farmer?
But nats need to stuff up
AND
Labor needs to be outstanding.
Read about Bill McCarthy
@mick short of commiting murder i cant see them losing. even then labor wouldnt win it would go to another right party or an independent. labor hasnt won this seat since 1910
Barnaby has been dead for years just no body noticed.
Read about Bill McCarthy alp mp for Armidale then Northern tablelands.
He set up a campaign office in Armidale he was the Shadow mp for Armidale.
The boundaries were changed with one vote 1 value… the seat became Northern tablelands effectively a merger with Tetherfield. He still won. The sitting mp for Tetherfield declined to recontest I think.
A state seat is much different to a federal seat. Also Armidale has a strong left vote with the university there. They will won page long before they win new england
The sitting mp for Tetherfield was Tim Bruxner who was very substantial in his own right
The number of people employed in coal mining in both Muswellbrook and Upper Hunter LGAs doubled from 2006 to 2021.