ALP 17.9%
Incumbent MP
Sharon Claydon, since 2013.
Geography
The seat of Newcastle covers most of the City of Newcastle, and a small part of the Lake Macquarie council area. Major suburbs include Newcastle, Hamilton, Merewether, Lambton, Kotara, Adamstown, Mayfield, Maryland, Wallsend and Waratah.
Redistribution
Newcastle expanded slightly, taking in a small area from Hunter.
History
Newcastle is an original federation electorate, and has been held by the ALP for its entire history. Indeed, the seat has only ever been held by five people in 110 years.
The seat was first won in 1901 by David Watkins, a former coal-miner and state member for the seat of Wallsend. Watkins held Newcastle for decades until his death in 1935. He was succeeded at a 1935 by-election by his son David Oliver Watkins. Watkins junior held the seat for another twenty-three years, retiring in 1958.
After being held for 57 years by members of the Watkins family, Newcastle was won in 1958 by Charles Jones, then the Lord Mayor of Newcastle. Jones went on to serve as Gough Whitlam’s Minister for Transport from 1972 to 1975. He retired in 1983, and was succeeded by Allan Morris.
Morris held the seat for eighteen years, and was succeeded at the 2001 by former school principal Sharon Grierson, who held the seat for the next twelve years.
Labor’s Sharon Claydon was elected in Newcastle in 2013, and she has been re-elected three times.
- Jason Briggs (Family First)
- Sharon Claydon (Labor)
- Charlotte McCabe (Greens)
- Assari McPhee (Liberal)
Assessment
Newcastle is the safest Labor seat in Australia.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sharon Claydon | Labor | 46,551 | 44.1 | -1.7 | 44.1 |
| Katrina Wark | Liberal | 25,816 | 24.4 | -4.8 | 24.4 |
| Charlotte McCabe | Greens | 21,195 | 20.1 | +4.5 | 20.0 |
| Mark Watson | One Nation | 4,757 | 4.5 | +4.5 | 4.5 |
| Emily Brollo | Animal Justice | 2,549 | 2.4 | -0.8 | 2.4 |
| Amanda Cook | United Australia | 2,517 | 2.4 | -1.0 | 2.4 |
| William Hussey | Informed Medical Options | 1,140 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 1.1 |
| Garth Pywell | Federation Party | 1,102 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 1.0 |
| Others | 0.0 | ||||
| Informal | 6,038 | 5.4 | -0.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sharon Claydon | Labor | 71,807 | 68.0 | +4.2 | 67.9 |
| Katrina Wark | Liberal | 33,820 | 32.0 | -4.2 | 32.1 |
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 68% in the east to 70.2% in the centre.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 16.3% in the west to 26.3% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 26.3 | 68.0 | 20,995 | 19.8 |
| Central | 21.0 | 70.6 | 18,858 | 17.7 |
| West | 16.3 | 70.2 | 16,308 | 15.3 |
| Pre-poll | 19.1 | 66.3 | 35,022 | 32.9 |
| Other votes | 16.0 | 66.1 | 15,120 | 14.2 |
Election results in Newcastle at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
I’m not a local here but the neighbouring seats Labor appears to be serious trouble. Labor hold with a swing against them.
@Spacefish the other parts of Newcastle are different demographically to the seat of Newcastle itself. The seat of Newcastle itself is a mix of progressive, working-class and affluent/small-l-liberal suburbs. Hunter, Paterson and Shortland are white working-class seats (though Paterson and Shortland have some middle-class areas).
I could see this being a Greens target a few elections down the track particularly if the Greens could snag the state seat of Newcastle.
@Redistributed I doubt it. The Greens being woke and radical won’t resonate here just like it doesn’t resonate in Brisbane.
Newcastle isn’t like the capital city CBD seats. The Greens are way off from winning. They may enter the 2PP at best.
The western suburbs of Newcastle are less Green and have more ALP vs LIB contests. Some parts like Maryland and Minmi are very working class.
Newcastle has a massive proportion of welfare dependent and social housing voters on its western end and scattered through its northern suburbs (Mayfield). Naturally these voters don’t side with the Libs but they don’t like the Greens just as much.
Many white/blue collar voters also appear to be particularly unionized (nurses, teachers, university etc), which is why the Greens haven’t gained traction. The Greens also appear to select more ‘alternate looking’ candidates that don’t really speak to the working class or the small-I-Liberals.
Until the Greens can place second on FP AND the Libs preference them before Labor (it’s possible, if they play nice) they’re not going to come close.
@electioneer this is a working class seat noone but Labor will ever win here
@John: Don’t confuse welfare dependent and social housing with working class when looking at voting trends.
Where I was going, was, look at the Teal Party as an example, they came second on the FP to the Libs in Wentworth, Mackellar, North Sydney, Goldstein and Curtin but were pushed across the line on the 2PP by Greens and Labor preferences. There’s no reason the same can’t happen here for the Greens if the Libs decide to be strategic and deprive Labor of a majority by putting a Green in Newcastle. Problem is their candidates aren’t acceptable to mainstream Labor and Liberal voters (and constantly push far-left issues in local government which is a big turn-off) to get them into 2nd position on the FP across the seat.
Good evening from freezing Liverpool, UK.
I used to live in Newcastle. This is a mixed seat and there are areas where the Liberals do well but Newcastle has working-class and progressive areas that will vote Labor. However it’s not a seat I can ever see the Greens winning.
The only way the Liberals would win the FEDERAL seat of Newcastle would be in a big landslide. As for the state seat it would depend on the boundaries but still unlikely at the moment.
@electioneer the Libs learned their lesson in Melbourne in 2010 when they got Bandt in to do exactly that. They won’t be doing that again. Besides here there is a decent right wing vote outside of the Libs UAP and ONP that will back Labor over greens also the Labor vote is simply too high and the grn vote is too low atm for that to happen. Unlike teal seats the greens cant rely on an absolute flow of preferences.
@np libs will never win this seat the left accounts for about 2/3 of the vote here. This is literally Labor safest seat in the country
https://nswliberal.org.au/asarri-mcphee