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Ian Goodenough just confirmed he will run as an independent. He might split the conservative vote but I am predicting a Liberal retain. It could get interesting if a teal or Voices of Moore candidate enters.
@Votante Will he preference the Liberals?
I cant imagine his personal vote his that high his own party didnt even reelect him as the candidate. Libs should recover in WA based on last result and i cant imagine goodenough will preference labor.
He will come third on primaries at best I reckon. I m sure he will preference Liberals before Labor.
@votante he probably won’t make 3rd greens vote is 14% I doubt he’ll crack double digits.
He might make 3rd off preferences though.
There was talk about a teal running, possibly to face off of Ian Goodenough but he’s not running for the Liberals anymore. If a teal does run, it would smash the Greens vote.
The teal would have no hope here. The labor vote is simply too high. Labor is more likely to win the the teal.
Liberal hold. Goodenough wasn’t necessarily popular and a moderate probably would’ve actually faired better than him. While it does mean the loss of an another minority in the Liberal Party (he is part Asian, specifically Singaporean), if the Liberal candidate for Bennelong is Chinese that will cancel out the loss of Ian Goodenough.
Moore isn’t a teal area. Just the part of Perth that used to be the outer suburban mortgage belt back in the 80’s and has drifted more Lib as suburban sprawl moves north, the kids move out, and their boomer parents continue to believe everything Rick and Sue tell them. Compare the state seats of Marmion / Carine (Labor in the early 70’s), Whitford / Hillarys (Labor in the 80’s), and Ocean Reef / Burns Beach (notionally Labor on creation in 2008).
Paul Filing got re-elected here after losing the Lib ticket back in 1996, (as did Alan Rocher in Curtin – two of the few seats the Libs lost while Howard came in), so it’s not unprecedented. I don’t think Goodenough will win, but even if he gets 10-15% and does something vindictive with his HTV cards, it could flip the seat to Labor. (Like John D’Orazio in Morley 2008 with the parties swapped.) The WA Libs will be flat out trying to win a bunch of NOR seats at the state election in March, particularly Carine, so the complications here mean they could flub this. One of the few seats anywhere in Australia that’s a genuine risk for the Libs.
And for extra spice, here’s this:
https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/jilted-liberal-ian-goodenough-says-colleagues-pressured-him-not-to-run-as-independent-c-16998507
Jilted Liberal Ian Goodenough claims senior colleagues in Canberra tried to bribe him with the possibility of a job if he did not run in Moore as an independent. But Mr Goodenough — who was dropped as the Liberal candidate for Moore for Vince Connelly and has since announced he will run as an independent — said he would not be bought, vowing to fight tooth and nail to win the seat as an independent. “I have received significant pressure from senior Canberra-based colleagues persuading me not to recontest the next election (as an independent),” he revealed to The Sunday Times. “The potential consequences of running against the party were raised, as well as the potential opportunities of not recontesting.” Asked what he meant by “potential consequences”, Mr Goodenough said: “(I was told) if I was to run against the Liberal Party, that career-wise, that might not be a good move going forward. “(I was told) that in the future, opportunities might arise that would be of benefit with a future (Coalition) government.”
This seat is going to be a mess, there is a chance that Labor wins here simply because of confusing preference flows.
@Bird of paradox: What does “NOR seats” mean?
@spacefish Liberal retain. Liberal vote will recover. Ind vote will be small.
Joseph: NOR / SOR = north / south of the (Swan) river. Perth slang. 😉
Hillarys, Kingsley, Carine and Scarborough are all state seats round here the Libs normally win, and they’ll be desperate to get back in March. Running two election campaigns within a couple of months of each other will be hard, and getting back to being a viable state opposition would be a priority for a lot of Libs.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/former-liberal-mp-goodenough-may-send-preferences-to-labor-in-key-wa-seat/news-story/4b295d15575f010ef08c633c60b6aa4d
(Paywalled, but there are ways.)
~~~~~~~
The fallout from the Liberal Party’s decision not to preselect incumbent MP Ian Goodenough is set to lead to a preferences stand-off that could jeopardise the Coalition’s last seat in metropolitan Perth.
Mr Goodenough told The Australian he acknowledged it would be “very difficult” for him to direct his preferences to Vince Connelly, who won Liberal endorsement for the seat of Moore in Perth’s northern suburbs after a bitter preselection battle last year.
If, as appears increasingly likely, Mr Goodenough directs his preferences to Labor over Mr Connelly or leaves his preferences open, it could hurt the Liberals’ chances to retain the seat.
Mr Goodenough told The Australian a primary vote of 10 per cent for him would likely leave the Liberals in “quite a difficult position”.
But he said he was intent on winning the seat in his own right as an independent.
“I’ve got the enthusiasm and the drive to keep achieving for the electorate with the development vision and a few of the projects that I’m still pursuing very heavily,” he said.
“I do have a constructive agenda for running, it’s not just to cause trouble.”
He said he had also had some “general discussions” with Labor. A final call on his preferences will be made closer to the election.
Liberal Party insiders believe the expected swing against the Albanese government in Western Australia will temper any issue with Mr Goodenough’s preferences. There is also a belief that Mr Goodenough’s primary vote is unlikely to be of sufficient magnitude to sway the contest.
He’s just being a sore lover. He lost a democratic ballot in which the branch members chose Connelly over him. I doubt his voters or a major part of them would follow that htv most of his primary will come from his personal vote and those loyal to him. However I doubt they will all vote Labor over liberal I can see him winning or even making the 2cp here the lab lib vote is simply too high.