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Lib
Broadbent
Leonard
Labor
In order of chances…..
To win everyone including greens and far right need to swap preferences
redistributed mary alread will win easily. just because he directs preferences doesnt mean people will ollow them. most of his voters will be liberals whose personal vote he hasnt lost but id assume they will go lib 2. broadbents vote shouldnt clear more then 10%. im saying he will get around 8% max. if that.
Big money comes to Monash
There was an article in the South Gippsland Sentinel Times about Deb Leonards fundraising. To her credit it is all transparent but the numbers are huge.
So far she has raised $698,982.89
Small donors (181 different donors $1,000 or less total $24,369.79)
Major donors are:
Vida Impact Fund $10,000.00
Voices for Monash $13,500.00
Keep Them Honest Pty Ltd $16,900.00
Greg Spiller $25,000.00
Regional Voices Fund $30,000.00
Jenny Leonard $35,093.63
Tony Leonard $50,000.00
Name withheld $122,036.54
Climate 200 $364,340.00
Russell Broadbent is quoted in the same article as saying he has never spent more $60,000 and he expected the Libs to spend $100,000.
The numbers above are huge and show that the Teals have gone for big money in what they think are winnable seats. It would be interesting to know who name withheld is. Keep them Honest has donated elsewhere but I can’t find who they are. The Regional Voices Fund has a McGowan and a Haines on the board so it can be assumed they come from Indi. I can also find no trace of the Vida Impact fund.
Are Tony and Jenny Deb’s parents?
I assume related in some way. They have stumped up a fair bit of cash
Huge sums for an independent
Climate 200 funding?
Maybe bet on Leonard and broadbent
I read that Alex Dyson in Wannon is as cashed up and well funded as Deb Leonard. I actually rate Dyson’s odds as better though.
Good to see near real time disclosure of donations. Rather than waiting months.
‘Name withheld’ & ‘Climate 200’ are largest declared donors, but like ‘Vida Impact Fund’, ‘Regional Voices’, Monash Voices’ & ‘Keepem Honest’, these entities wouldn’t pass muster, under even the much derided AEC requirements for actual disclosure.
what a way to burn cash
Broadbent has confirmed in a Facebook post that he would run as an independent. https://www.facebook.com/share/p/19wmVf6o5k/
Monash will end up as a very complex count. The Liberal Party will easily win the 2PP against Labor, but it probably won’t be immediately clear based on primary votes that the seat will end up as a Liberal vs Labor contest.
If the difference in primary votes among Labor, Leonard and Broadbent are small, there will be all sorts of questions regarding the order of exclusion.
If the primary vote order is Labor > Leonard > Broadbent, will Broadbent finish ahead of Leonard to make the 3CP due to preferences from right-wing minor parties? Preferences from right-wing minor parties’ will favour Broadbent over Leonard due to Broadbent’s anti-vaccination stance.
Conversely, if the primary vote order is Labor > Broadbent > Leonard, it will be difficult for Leonard to finish ahead of Broadbent because preferences from right-wing minor parties will favour Broadbent and will likely overcome Greens’ preferences favouring Leonard over Broadbent. One Nation actually finished ahead of the Greens in Monash in 2022, making preferences from right-wing minor parties more crucial than the Greens in deciding whether Broadbent or Leonard make the 3CP.
If Leonard/Broadbent make the 3CP, will Leonard and Broadbent’s preferences flow well to each other so that the preference of Broadbent/Leonard will push Leonard/Broadbent ahead of Labor and make the 2CP? If either Broadbent/Leonard make the 2CP, they will likely win due to favourable preferences from Labor, Greens and Leonard/Broadbent. The Liberal Party’s primary vote in 2022 was already dangerously low at 37.8%, and will only get lower in 2025 because Broadbent will split the Liberal vote. In 2022, Liberal candidates in teals seats with higher primary votes were all defeated by teals. It’s reasonable to suspect that Leonard and Broadbent’s preferences will favour each other over the Liberal Party due to the anti-major party sentiment of their voters, regardless of the preference recommendations on Broadbent’s HTV cards.
Unless they do tactical voting labor’s vote will not crash enough for them to be pushed out
@Darth Vader Labor primary vote was already low in 2022 at 25.6% and it will only get lower in 2025 due to general swing against Labor and Broadbent contesting as an independent. In Groom in 2022 Labor polled 18.73% and was pushed out of 2CP due to preferences from One Nation and another independent pushing independent Suzie Holt into the second place. In Hume in 2022 Labor polled 19.92% and only managed to stay in 2CP with a 3CP lead of 0.83% ahead of independent Penny Ackery. It’s entirely possible Labor primary vote could drop to a similar level.
In this electoral environment, are Broadbent’s supporters really that likely to preference the teal over Broadbent’s old party?
I can definitely see Labor being pushed into third place behind Leonard and the Labor could have a 1 in front. Broadbent to get 10% if he’s lucky and you get the feeling he ain’t gonna shell out a dime on this campaign. The Pox on both you houses effect could see Leonard elected on ON preferences. I will be there weekend after next so I will report Corflute action.
Labor will certainly do tactical voting, if only to keep antivaxxer Broadbent out. Huge amounts flowing into the Leonard campaign, considering Broadbent says he’s never spent more than $60 grand, and has been there, apart from the swings in ’93 and ’98, for 35 years.
Labor strategy last time and this time is to help those Indies out, with the expectation they will support a minority Labor Government.
Katter has sounded a bit agitated recently, Labor hasn’t announced a candidate in Kennedy yet.
@Maxim March 6, 2025 at 1:21 pm:
Those that don’t understand how preferences work, sure. Broadbent is past his use by date with the Liberal voters anyway, Labor might as well run deade because they’re not winning Monash in this climate, so it’s a Lib/Teal contest with the Teal in the catbird seat.
Mary Aldred’s father was disendorsed for antisemitic opinions, while that’s not her fault it might be jarring for some for her to be elected in a Division named for Monash.
how many Labor and Greens voters liked Broadbent but only didn’t vote for him because he was a Liberal party candidate?