LIB 2.9%
Incumbent MP
Russell Broadbent (Independent), since 2019. Previously member for Corinella 1990-1993, member for McMillan 1996-1998, 2004-2019.
Geography
South-eastern Victoria. Monash covers parts of Victoria stretching from the south-eastern fringe of Melbourne to the Latrobe Valley. The seat stretches from Western Port in the west to Moe in the east, and stretches down to the coast. McMillan covers the entirety of Bass Coast and South Gippsland council areas, most of Baw Baw council area and parts of the Latrobe council area. The seat covers the towns of Warragul, Moe, Wonthaggi, Leongatha and Foster.
History
The electorate name “Monash” was introduced in 2019 as a new name for the seat of McMillan, which had been first created in 1949. The seat has mostly been held by conservative parties, although since the 1980s the ALP has won the seat on a number of occasions.
The seat was first won by Geoffrey Brown of the Liberal Party in 1949. Brown won a three-cornered contest on Country Party preferences. The Country Party occasionally would contest the seat throughout the 1950s and 1960s, but never managed to overtake the Liberal Party. Brown was reelected in 1951 and 1954 but died in 1955 before the election.
The seat was won at the 1955 election by Alexander Buchanan, also a Liberal. Buchanan held the seat for seventeen years without taking ministerial office before losing the Liberal Party’s endorsement in 1972.
Buchanan stood as an independent in 1972, and preferences from the DLP and Buchanan allowed Country Party candidate Arthur Hewson to leapfrog the official Liberal candidate and defeat the ALP candidate on Liberal preferences.
Hewson was reelected in a fierce contest in 1974, when the Liberals stood Ronald Dent against him despite a coalition agreement, and Hewson narrowly defeated Dent on primary votes before overtaking the ALP on preferences.
Hewson was defeated by Liberal candidate Barry Simon in 1975, and the Nationals never came close to winning McMillan again. Simon held the seat until 1980, when the ALP’s Barry Cunningham won it.
Cunningham held the seat throughout the 1980s, losing to John Riggall (LIB) in 1990. Riggall was defeated by Cunningham in 1993, and Cunningham was defeated by Russell Broadbent in 1996.
Broadbent had previously held the neighbouring seat of Corinella for one term from 1990 to 1993, and Corinella had been abolished at the 1996 election.
Broadbent was again defeated in 1998 by Christian Zahra, a 25-year-old ALP candidate. Zahra was made a shadow Parliamentary Secretary after the 2001 election, and was considered to have a promising career, before losing to Broadbent in 2004.
Broadbent managed to win re-election in 2007 after developing a reputation for rebelling against the Howard government’s immigration policies, and has been re-elected five more times since.
Broadbent lost preselection for Monash in November 2023, and he went on to resign from the Liberal Party to serve out his term as an independent.
- Mary Aldred (Liberal)
- Russell Broadbent (Independent)
- Geoff Dethlefs (Family First)
- Tully Fletcher (Labor)
- Deb Leonard (Independent)
- Kuljeet Robinson (One Nation)
- Terence Steele (Greens)
- Alex Wehbe (Trumpet of Patriots)
Assessment
Monash is quite a marginal seat, and the loss of the sitting MP’s personal vote may make things harder for the Liberal Party. The presence of both Deb Leonard as a well-funded teal independent and Broadbent as an ex-Coalition independent make this race quite complicated.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Russell Broadbent | Liberal | 36,546 | 37.8 | -8.2 |
| Jessica O’Donnell | Labor | 24,759 | 25.6 | -4.3 |
| Deb Leonard | Independent | 10,372 | 10.7 | +10.7 |
| Mat Morgan | Greens | 9,533 | 9.9 | +2.7 |
| Allan Hicken | One Nation | 7,289 | 7.5 | +0.2 |
| Christine Ann McShane | United Australia | 3,991 | 4.1 | +0.2 |
| Meg Edwards | Liberal Democrats | 3,548 | 3.7 | +3.7 |
| David Matthew Welsh | Federation Party | 674 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Informal | 4,752 | 4.7 | +0.3 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Russell Broadbent | Liberal | 51,156 | 52.9 | -4.0 |
| Jessica O’Donnell | Labor | 45,556 | 47.1 | +4.0 |
Booths have been divided into four areas, which reflect local government boundaries.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, with 55.2% in Baw Baw and 56.6% in South Gippsland. Labor polled 53.8% in Bass Coast and 58.2% in Latrobe.
Independent candidate Deb Leonard came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.7% in Latrobe to 14.3% in Bass Coast.
| Voter group | IND prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Baw Baw | 8.8 | 55.2 | 15,233 | 15.8 |
| South Gippsland | 10.8 | 56.6 | 13,443 | 13.9 |
| Bass Coast | 14.3 | 46.2 | 8,454 | 8.7 |
| Latrobe | 8.7 | 41.8 | 3,586 | 3.7 |
| Pre-poll | 9.1 | 51.9 | 39,442 | 40.8 |
| Other votes | 9.8 | 55.9 | 16,554 | 17.1 |
Election results in Monash at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor, independent candidate Deb Leonard and the Greens.
Lib
Broadbent
Leonard
Labor
In order of chances…..
To win everyone including greens and far right need to swap preferences
redistributed mary alread will win easily. just because he directs preferences doesnt mean people will ollow them. most of his voters will be liberals whose personal vote he hasnt lost but id assume they will go lib 2. broadbents vote shouldnt clear more then 10%. im saying he will get around 8% max. if that.
Big money comes to Monash
There was an article in the South Gippsland Sentinel Times about Deb Leonards fundraising. To her credit it is all transparent but the numbers are huge.
So far she has raised $698,982.89
Small donors (181 different donors $1,000 or less total $24,369.79)
Major donors are:
Vida Impact Fund $10,000.00
Voices for Monash $13,500.00
Keep Them Honest Pty Ltd $16,900.00
Greg Spiller $25,000.00
Regional Voices Fund $30,000.00
Jenny Leonard $35,093.63
Tony Leonard $50,000.00
Name withheld $122,036.54
Climate 200 $364,340.00
Russell Broadbent is quoted in the same article as saying he has never spent more $60,000 and he expected the Libs to spend $100,000.
The numbers above are huge and show that the Teals have gone for big money in what they think are winnable seats. It would be interesting to know who name withheld is. Keep them Honest has donated elsewhere but I can’t find who they are. The Regional Voices Fund has a McGowan and a Haines on the board so it can be assumed they come from Indi. I can also find no trace of the Vida Impact fund.
Are Tony and Jenny Deb’s parents?
I assume related in some way. They have stumped up a fair bit of cash
Huge sums for an independent
Climate 200 funding?
Maybe bet on Leonard and broadbent
I read that Alex Dyson in Wannon is as cashed up and well funded as Deb Leonard. I actually rate Dyson’s odds as better though.
Good to see near real time disclosure of donations. Rather than waiting months.
‘Name withheld’ & ‘Climate 200’ are largest declared donors, but like ‘Vida Impact Fund’, ‘Regional Voices’, Monash Voices’ & ‘Keepem Honest’, these entities wouldn’t pass muster, under even the much derided AEC requirements for actual disclosure.
what a way to burn cash
Broadbent has confirmed in a Facebook post that he would run as an independent. https://www.facebook.com/share/p/19wmVf6o5k/
Monash will end up as a very complex count. The Liberal Party will easily win the 2PP against Labor, but it probably won’t be immediately clear based on primary votes that the seat will end up as a Liberal vs Labor contest.
If the difference in primary votes among Labor, Leonard and Broadbent are small, there will be all sorts of questions regarding the order of exclusion.
If the primary vote order is Labor > Leonard > Broadbent, will Broadbent finish ahead of Leonard to make the 3CP due to preferences from right-wing minor parties? Preferences from right-wing minor parties’ will favour Broadbent over Leonard due to Broadbent’s anti-vaccination stance.
Conversely, if the primary vote order is Labor > Broadbent > Leonard, it will be difficult for Leonard to finish ahead of Broadbent because preferences from right-wing minor parties will favour Broadbent and will likely overcome Greens’ preferences favouring Leonard over Broadbent. One Nation actually finished ahead of the Greens in Monash in 2022, making preferences from right-wing minor parties more crucial than the Greens in deciding whether Broadbent or Leonard make the 3CP.
If Leonard/Broadbent make the 3CP, will Leonard and Broadbent’s preferences flow well to each other so that the preference of Broadbent/Leonard will push Leonard/Broadbent ahead of Labor and make the 2CP? If either Broadbent/Leonard make the 2CP, they will likely win due to favourable preferences from Labor, Greens and Leonard/Broadbent. The Liberal Party’s primary vote in 2022 was already dangerously low at 37.8%, and will only get lower in 2025 because Broadbent will split the Liberal vote. In 2022, Liberal candidates in teals seats with higher primary votes were all defeated by teals. It’s reasonable to suspect that Leonard and Broadbent’s preferences will favour each other over the Liberal Party due to the anti-major party sentiment of their voters, regardless of the preference recommendations on Broadbent’s HTV cards.
Unless they do tactical voting labor’s vote will not crash enough for them to be pushed out
@Darth Vader Labor primary vote was already low in 2022 at 25.6% and it will only get lower in 2025 due to general swing against Labor and Broadbent contesting as an independent. In Groom in 2022 Labor polled 18.73% and was pushed out of 2CP due to preferences from One Nation and another independent pushing independent Suzie Holt into the second place. In Hume in 2022 Labor polled 19.92% and only managed to stay in 2CP with a 3CP lead of 0.83% ahead of independent Penny Ackery. It’s entirely possible Labor primary vote could drop to a similar level.
In this electoral environment, are Broadbent’s supporters really that likely to preference the teal over Broadbent’s old party?
I can definitely see Labor being pushed into third place behind Leonard and the Labor could have a 1 in front. Broadbent to get 10% if he’s lucky and you get the feeling he ain’t gonna shell out a dime on this campaign. The Pox on both you houses effect could see Leonard elected on ON preferences. I will be there weekend after next so I will report Corflute action.
Labor will certainly do tactical voting, if only to keep antivaxxer Broadbent out. Huge amounts flowing into the Leonard campaign, considering Broadbent says he’s never spent more than $60 grand, and has been there, apart from the swings in ’93 and ’98, for 35 years.
Labor strategy last time and this time is to help those Indies out, with the expectation they will support a minority Labor Government.
Katter has sounded a bit agitated recently, Labor hasn’t announced a candidate in Kennedy yet.
@Maxim March 6, 2025 at 1:21 pm:
Those that don’t understand how preferences work, sure. Broadbent is past his use by date with the Liberal voters anyway, Labor might as well run deade because they’re not winning Monash in this climate, so it’s a Lib/Teal contest with the Teal in the catbird seat.
Mary Aldred’s father was disendorsed for antisemitic opinions, while that’s not her fault it might be jarring for some for her to be elected in a Division named for Monash.
how many Labor and Greens voters liked Broadbent but only didn’t vote for him because he was a Liberal party candidate?
’22 results, Broadbent got 11%, Leonard 29%, Labor 54% when Greens excluded, 36% when Leonard excluded. https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-323.htm
Don’t have the knowledge of how to interpret that, are there a lot of Hospital/Healthcare workers in Monash?
Anecdotal, seems to me in Brisbane Green voting healthcare professionals are more likely than other Green voters to put LNP [just] above Labor.
@redistributed: ON and right-wing minor party preferences will favour Broadbent over Leonard due to Broadbent’s anti-vaccination stance. Unless Leonard polls second highest on primary votes it would be difficult for her to make the 2CP due to unfavourable preferences from right-wing minor parties and potentially Broadbent. The 3CP flow of Broadbent’s preferences to Leonard will definitely be weaker than the 3CP flow of Leonard’s preferences to Broadbent, and as @Maxim has pointed out, it’s entirely possible that Broadbent’s 3CP preference flow will favour the Liberal Party over Leonard.
Deb Leonard’s campaign fund has now gone up to $783,919.03 – that is up from $698,982.89 on March 5. That also includes another $57,000 from Climate 200. I was in South Gippsland last weekend and saw one roadside Deb Leonard sign and she has a campaign office in Leongatha. Presumably offices elsewhere – so where is the money actually going? And if it is not spent where does the money go? Are we going to see a US style politics where it all comes down to the size of the candidates individual war chest?
Just to add – only saw one Mary Aldred corflute – which was on a persons fence – so not much corflute action so far – at least in South Gippsland.
I believe that corflutes can only be put in public places once the election is called – so till then it is only private property
Preferences will be the key, although for Broadbent to have a chance he would need a primary vote of at least 15% then harvest preferences form ONP, FF and Trumpets. Needs to shave at least 5-8% primary from Libs vote. Greens go to Labor, whilst Leonard has not entered into any preference swaps, so could be left high and dry.
So no new comments??? Word around the electorate is that the Libs are worried about how well Braodbent is polling. Some suggest it’s north of 20%. And the Teals could be in trouble with funding being dramatically scaled back over the coming weeks due to negligible chances of winning in the absence of preference exchanges.
Broadbent polling 10% to 15% is expected . But to classify him as far right misses the mark.
A relative spoke to Russell Broadbent today and he made it very clear that he loathes the Teals so Deb Leonard cannot be expecting his preferences.
She has pulled in another $55,000 from Climate 200 so that is $112,000 in March alone. This is an electorate that could be greatly impacted by renewable energy development – onshore and offshore wind farms – and the transmission lines that go with them. One offshore wind developer has abandoned surveying one route to shore because the overwhelmingly negative public response but the Victorian Transmission Plan has yet to be released. Interesting however that Deb Leonard does not even mention these renewable energy developments on her website. Like Alex Dyson, she seems to want play both ends of the court and hope that it doesn’t all come crashing down.
Broadbent getting 10% to 15% or even over 20%? That’s unbelievable. Where is he pulling the votes from?
Redistributed teal is no threat here. The only person capable of winning other then the libs is Broadbent. SAME WITH gee in calare.
When you have been MP for 20+ years continuously and been around for another 15 before that you would have high name recognition even if that didn’t translate into a personal vote. Quite likely the disengaged who have voted for him forever and don’t realise he and the Libs have parted company.
Yes, Broadbent has been around forever. There are some factors that could swing the vote his way. He is known to be into vaccine politics and so he could scoop up votes from Libertarians, ToP and PHON. There could be a cohort who have sympathy for him or have in the past, voted for him because of him.
Deb Leonard might see limited gains as she is no longer the main independent in the race and has competition in the ‘community interests’ space.
Could Labor drop to third place on primary votes?
This seat is the liberals to lose. All things being equal the liberal and Broadbent will.be competing over 37 % be generous add 5% ie is 42%.that means everyone else got almost 60%.. if all candidates preferences the liberals last then. A non
Liberal could win… the best placed is Mr
Broadbent
Tactical voting could potentially come into play here, particularly on the left – it’s probably harder for Deb Leonard to get into the 2CP than it is for her to win if she does get there, so a big shift of Labor/Green primary votes to her could make a big difference.
I would expect a big slice of One Nation preferences (whatever the ticket says) to go Broadbent and then Leonard ahead of the two majors, so who is still in the count at the point when One Nation drop out could be important. Experience both from Monash last time and from a number of WA seats this time is that even leftish independents get a lot of One Nation preferences against the majors.
Leonard cannot win here the only way the liberals lose is tactical voting. To Broadbent
This is all getting a tad wild:
– Assume Libs are leading 30ish primary
– The Greens vote will go down – probably to be sucked up by Leonard.
– Labor didn’t have a candidate til recently but Tully Fletcher is giving it a good crack. I would say running equal with Leonard.
– Assuming after the right are eliminated Broadbent is in the same area as Leonard and Labor – possibly ahead of both.
– This is where Greens preferences come in. Where do they go? Any of Broadbent Leonard or Labor could end up 4th and then any of them
third.
– It would seem the Libs have to win if Leonard is 4th.
– Can’t see Labor winning at all
– Broadbent can only win if Labor ends 3rd.
– Leonard can win with big flow from Broadbent
If Liberal vote holds up well and Broadbent is distant 4th then Libs in with good chance.
If more candidates enter it could get messy indeed.
The other wild card is the Victorian Transmission Plan which was meant to be out but delayed until 15 or 30 April. That might throw up some nasty surprises.
–
Broadbent votes will probably flow towards libs if he’s eliminated. And I’m doubt he’ll preference the teal
Another scenario worth considering is that Labor, The Greens and Leonard preference the Libs before they preference Broadbent. Word around the traps is that could be on the cards. How ironic – Labor preferences electing a Lib!
Put the libs last is really the hope for any other candidate winning.
It is quite possible no candidate polls 30%