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Lib
Broadbent
Leonard
Labor
In order of chances…..
To win everyone including greens and far right need to swap preferences
redistributed mary alread will win easily. just because he directs preferences doesnt mean people will ollow them. most of his voters will be liberals whose personal vote he hasnt lost but id assume they will go lib 2. broadbents vote shouldnt clear more then 10%. im saying he will get around 8% max. if that.