Menzies – Australia 2025

This redistribution hasn’t the Liberal party at all, if this had been on the old boundaries I would have said Liberal hold but now it could go either way.

Libs hold as only a slight correction vote (but not big inroads like 2016 and 2019) for the Chinese community is enough is swing the seat notionally back to Libs

I live in this seat. The growth in the Chinese community and densification alone from 2022 could keep the notional margin even if there is a light correction having said that i have not seen much of a Labor campaign. Inflation/interest rates will not bite as much as it has an older and wealthier demographic.

If Labor runs a good candidate here they do have a chance of holding it (notionally). It now contains Box Hill which has heavily swung to Labor in the last two cycles (and on a state level too), it would take a lot for them to swing back just as heavily to the Liberals. Losing a portion of Warrandyte (or is it Warrandyte North) will also help Labor as that’s one of the stronger Liberal zones.

Having said that, Keith Wolahan has been a surprisingly sensible member and he doesn’t seem to be as nutty and conservative as his predecessor Kevin Andrews (spew). If Andrews somehow contested and barely held onto this seat in 2022 he would definitely lose it next year but with Wolahan he’s at least competitive.

@Nimalan what do you think about the above? As a local do any of these factors count or am I over-analysing this haha.

Keith Wolohan has been actively campaigning for months and it seems quite visible in those parts of the seat that have been transferred in. Has Labor even chosen a candidate for Menzies or Deakin? There seems to be no evidence of selection from what I can see. They are leaving it late – Carina Garland was campaigning months before the 2022 election. It is possible that Labor have given up and will instead try to sandbag Aston, Chisholm, Macnamara, Wills and McEwen.

@Tommo9, Wolahan is from the Centrist faction (alongside MP’s like Jason Wood and Melissa Price) which I can describe him as a Liberal Conservative as he supports same-sex marriage but also opposes the Voice and avoids reactionary language to respect all voters

The only thing that this suggests to me is that Labor is probably looking to select their 2022 candidates for 2025 in Deakin and Menzies. That’s the approach they’re going for in Brisbane and Forde.

But I agree. Labor seems to have gotten the right idea for Sturt with their candidate campaigning already months ago (citation: I live in that particular electorate), so I don’t know what Labor’s thinking if they don’t start now given that both of those seats are the only viable paths towards maintaining any form of government.

@tommo9 apparently the Deakin candidate will run again, but Menzies is a new candidate

@oguh Interesting that they’re not running Naomi Oakley in Menzies again given that she already has some sort of a profile having run in 2022 and also in Warrandyte in the state election. Labor needs to get a move along in both seats if they want to cling onto any chances of any government. It’s possible but they need to start ASAP.

Never heard of Jason Wood or Melissa Price being in the “centrist” faction. In particular I’ve heard of Jason Wood being considerably right-wing among the Victorian Liberals.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/who-s-who-in-the-liberals-left-right-and-centre-factions-20210303-p577gv.html

This was a breakdown of the last parliament.

@Adda 100% right Wood is one of Dutton’s pals who’s always voted for him in the leadership spills in 2018 and got a promotion to the shadow ministry in 2022 so you can probably guess where his factional alignment goes.

As for Wolahan, initially I thought he might be one of those hawks like Andrew Hastie as both have an army background but Wolahan’s actually proven to be surprisingly moderate which is refreshing for a Victorian Liberal these days. That could help him in re-election.

Sources for Wood and Price in the “Centrist faction” are here
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-morrison-s-shattering-defeat-gave-dutton-a-seismic-shift-in-factional-power-20230330-p5cwoq.html
It is virtually a breakaway from the Centre-Right faction (and should not be related to the “Moderate” faction) which became fragmented since the loss of Scott Morrison. Agree that Wood seems to be on friendly terms with Dutton though.

Thanks Marh, sounds like it’s purely a “Centrist” grouping in name only. “Philosophically, their world view is much like the Centre Right – more economically dry than the National Right and more socially conservative than the Moderates”. Judging by the members list, they’re not particularly united by ideology, like Scott Morrison’s old faction.

I think it would be very hard to point to ideological differences between Dutton and Jason Wood. As for Wolohan, I remember after preselection he made a point to emphasise he was not a moderate https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-01/keith-wolahan-kevin-andrews-menzies-liberal-party-moderate/13108654 But since that time Menzies has become super marginal so he may be making different noises.

Libs hold. If they couldnt win it at a high watermark in 2022 they won’t win now it’s notional labor but that won’t stay after the election. Labor will likely hold this seat in about 10 years though

@ Tommo9
I think you are right. Keith Wolahan is a pragmatic candidate and is actually quite mild mannered, respectful and unlike Kevin Andrews who was a reactionary firebrand. I dont believe Kevin Andrews views on abortion, euthanasia would have been an issue especially in the Northern part where i live as there is some social conservatism on certain issues SSM vote was quite low (Mainly due to CALD population). However, i think his views including past comments on African communities and Climate are out of step with the mood of the community which remains well educated and has ethnic harmony. North Warrandyte is actually good for Greens and it was removed. However, Labor has benefited from the removal of most of Donvale, Park Orchards and Wonga Park. Kevin Andrews would also be Hawkish towards China and that can be weaponised against him. While Labor did not win in 2022 it is important to remember that there was zero effort put in so if they actually bothered to campaign maybe they would have narrowly won it in 2022.

I’d say tossup but leaning Liberal. Labor missed this in 2022 with no incumbent member and a departing member with a lot of baggage, yet put little effort in. If Labor had won, the redistribution, which flipped it to notional Labor, would’ve made it easier for Labor to retain.

I think Deakin is more at-risk.

Liberal notional gain/hold (Menzies is notionally Labor on new boundaries), Keith Wolahan is a great MP. Could be the only Liberal gain in Victoria.

@Np it’s barely labor labor has gone backwards in Vic and will likely lose seats here also

There’s some media coverage on how Keith Wolahan is leading the Libs’ attempts to recalibrate it’s relationship with the Chinese community and toning down the hawkishness towards China so I think he will be able to achieve a decent recovery vote among the community which will be enough to hold the seat especially on these boundaries.

@np i reckon libs will win Aston back at least. Good chances in dunkley mcewen and Chisholm too. They may make a few competitive enough to be vulnerable in 2028 as well. I’m gonna test the entitlement numbers again in march too.

Menzies & deakin?
Aston. ?
The others alp retain

@mick wouldn’t put all you eggs in that basket. Several seats in Vic are on a knife edge.mcewen Chisholm dunkley bruceto a lesser extent holt and hawke.

Menzies in about 10 years will likely be a Labor seat as it moves further into Whitehorse lga. Assuming a expansion to parliament doesn’t happen putting a seat in that area

Kevin Andrews, who served as the member for Menzies from 1991 until 2022, has died aged 69.

Rest in peace and wishing his family well.

Gabriel Ng is the Labor candidate here, I never heard of him before which would probably suggest that Labor may not be taking this electorate seriously. We could possibly see Deakin be picked up by Labor but the Liberals flip Menzies and Aston.

RIP Kevin Andrews

@SpaceFish – very much agreed. As many other commenters have posted, Keith Wolahan is a very sensible and respectful MP who is a massive improvement from Kevin Andrews. He’s also one of the few Liberals who have been trying to make serious inroads back into the Chinese community, and has been very active across the electorate. He’s not a reactionary like Andrews was.

As for Labor, Gabriel Ng could be a decent candidate but he virtually has no profile in the electorate. I think the Liberals will get a sophomore surge and Keith Wolahan’s efforts in the electorate, especially with Chinese voters, will see this seat stay Liberal, definitely marginal but they should have a good recovery to keep this seat for now.

And Deakin, Labor is re-running it’s candidate from 2022, and I see this as going to them. Sukkar seems to hang on somehow because of postals and pre-polls massive outweighing the huge Labor polling day majority. I think his time is up in Deakin.

Unless things have changed since I helped out in campaigns in Doncaster in the 2000s when I lived (sort of) nearby, the local ALP infrastructure in Menzies is pretty minimal – at that time they would have been lucky to have had 20 active party members in the electorate. Finding one federal and two state candidates every few years is a big stretch for them, and they needed help from neighbouring seats to run even the most basic of campaigns. I expect they would have been as shocked as anyone to come so close last time.

They don’t have to expend any effort in neighbouring Kooyong, nor its near neighbour Goldstein. The ALP effort will represent a big increase on 2000s.

That’s a valid point, but I would expect that most of Kooyong’s ‘helping out the neighbours’ effort would be directed towards Chisholm.

Labor appears to be throwing a lot of resources here, maybe they think there is a chance to win here.

Personally I am surprised as I would’ve thought that Keith Wolahan would be more difficult to topple then Michael Sukkar.

I think Wolahan has a high personal vote in Menzies and 2022 might have been a peak for Labor in the area

IMO i think this is a Liberal hold

@sapcefish Wolahan is only a one term mp. Sukkar has been there since 2013 and has a higher personal vote

i think Liberals will hold this time around. and probably again in 2028 but after the next redistribution either this will likely move further into Whitehorse and then Labor will have a shot

you also got to remember that part of reason libs vote dipped last election was the loss of a long serving MP in Kevin Andrews. RIP.

on antoher note. even though he lost preselction at the last election if Andrews had of been reelected at the last election and had died at the same time he did would a by election have been held or would it have been too close to an election and left vacant like Shortens will be in February.?

fyi, there are signs in private properties already for the Labor candidate in Doncaster. Noticed today 6th Jan. is this to get the name known?

Hearing about a phenomenon of young left leaning voters from affluent suburbs not actually moving out even as young professionals- one of the explanations for the teal success. That would also apply to upper middle class areas like Deakin, Aston and Menzies, perhaps with a bit of a delay compared to Kooyong and Goldstein.

On the other hand, young men isolated in suburbia seem like the target demographic for Joe Rogan, Andrew Tate etc. Haven’t seen any data yet on whether a Gen Z rightward shift will happen in Australia too.

I think Wolahan is better positioned than Sukkar but the same factors could do them both in.

Even if we don’t take the new state poll as gospel, it’s definitely fair to say the state government’s popularity has fallen away since 2022.

If you agree that unpopular state governments can drag down a federal result, then I doubt Labor can make further inroads this time. They’ll likely be playing a more defensive game in Victoria trying to just hold what they have (or reduce losses).

Does Victoria have any history of strong split state/federal voting? One year between a relatively even federal result in 2001 (52/48) and the 2002 58/42 Brackslide – not really an emphatic enough difference.

I maintain that Dutton has every chance of being even less popular than Morrison in Victoria. But Mark Muclair – you are right that an on the nose state government will put Labor back on the defensive vs LNP. If the voters are ideologically still ALP aligned but unhappy with performance I would think that also improves Greens prospects (though with MacNamara being the only actually winnable new seat as a result without Lib preferences).

Anyway, we’ll get a good indicator from Werribee as to how accurate that poll is or where the swing is coming from

I wonder if Redbridge/Accent would ever have a go at a state district level MRP in the lead up to an election, that would be super interesting right now

Labor would do Well to win here. The surprise of 2022 was how close this went. Andrews before held this untroubled since 1991. Is the supposed swing to the libs in Vic for real or nor? If Dutton fits vic like chalk and cheese.. then?

Resolve has Dutton as preferred PM in VIC now, this 2023 notion that he’s ‘unelectable’ in VIC needs to die

While Victoria in recent decades has leaned ALP, the last time Victoria’s state government dragged down federal results was 1990 – some might say eerily similar circumstances to now. Back then though the ALP was much stronger in QLD federally – not the case currently – they had a majority of QLD’s seats back then.

I don’t think there’s animosity towards Albo like say Keating ’96 voters with “baseball bats”, but rather crestfallen disappointment, that any changes haven’t felt impactful enough. The Coalition might have been ramping up attacks on Labor with regards to Israel/Gaza and anti-Semitism and accusing Labor of being fence sitters, but where I think the Coalition’s message has actually been biting hard is “are you better off after 3 years of Labor” and Dutton’s “Albo’s a nice guy, but he’s not cut out/weak as PM”, irrespective of arguments that Dutton would be worse – I’d expect some would just say “how worse could it get?”

Cost of living/high inflation pressures don’t aid incumbents especially when perception of the leader is lukewarm at best. Dutton might not be perceived as fitting well in Victoria but that probably doesn’t matter as much if Albo is also not rated well either – elections are just as much about the incumbents and their performance – does the status quo hold up and are voters content for more of it or is change desired? In a way, the same could be said for Jacinta Allan at the state level, where the absence of Dan Andrews’ gravitas, like him or hate him, is being truly felt.

Recent news also mentioned that Dutton shut down debate on gender after David Littleproud brought it up following Trump’s victory in the US, even if to the dismay of populist conservatives from the likes of Sky or the Liberal/National bases – the QLD abortion issues scare may have likely decided that (and he also was never a strong opponent of SSM like say Tony Abbott – traditional social conservative issues aren’t his priority, not to mention his shrugging about Labor’s own goal over originally excluding gender and sexualiry from the 2026 census). At the same time he has still been decrying wokeness but more specifically on Australia Day citizenship ceremonies and flags, and feels emboldened on said issues after the Voice refeendum defeat.

@WL, I think the reason why Dutton did not target Transgender People unlike their American (and to a lesser British) counterparts might be due to two factors.

– LGBT issues have largely went away in Australia ever since 2020s given most Australians do know someone who is Transgender (I mean if there is one transgender person in your school) so no point making fear-mongering about Trans going into the Bathroom they identify with given Schools Toilets there is no difference in safety for Cisgender than without Transgender.
– The aftermath of The Voice Referendum and the increasing crime rates in large Indigenous Communities encourage lots of people to be vocal on culture wars about Indigenous Policies such as Welcome to Country and Flags. Hence it stolen the culture war oxygen away from Trans issues.

The point I tried to make is if the perceived lib swing in Victoria is a mirage and Dutton is deeply unpopular there.. then alp gains in Vic are possible