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Would there be any information on Labor to Green preference flows at the 2013 election? The Greens only made 2CPs with Labor that year, so the AEC’s data doesn’t provide any insight. I suspect that, following the minority government period, preference flows would’ve fallen from the 80-85% mark. Similarly, I predict that matters like Palestine, the fate of bills like Help to Buy and the perception of Greens as “extreme blockers” would lead those who vote Labor to favour the Coalition slightly more. Extrapolating on this, if I were in charge of the Labor electoral strategy at this election, I would be offering preferences to the Coalition in certain Green target seats, the most obvious example being Macnamara. Labor’s chances of holding on are zero, so it would be better to give it to the Coalition and make it easier to take back than by giving it to the Greens. It isn’t impossible to take back a Greens seat, but it is much harder. I don’t think Labor is game enough to give a seat that may provide it support in a minority situation, but stories I have heard about Labor strategy in the past indicate that they have been willing, historically, to put political matters ahead of electoral ones.
I think Labor will put a lot of effort into Macnamara and most media commentary favours Labor to hold it (I disagree and think it’ll be hard for them to hold it), but in light of that I doubt they’d preference the Libs because they Greens would use that against them and it’d probably translate to a significant swing of left leaning ALP voters to Greens on primary votes and guarantee Labor finish third.
@trent i agree with all the stuff going on in the middle east i dont think labor is gonna hold on to enough Jewish voters to maintain their position in the 2cp. on the other side of the pendulum they may lose votes to the greens on the same issues