GRN 6.9 vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Adam Bandt, since 2010.
Geography
Central Melbourne. Melbourne covers the Melbourne CBD, as well as the inner city suburbs of North Melbourne, Parkville, Carlton, Docklands, Abbotsford, Fitzroy, Ascot Vale, Richmond and East Melbourne. The seat covers a majority of the City of Melbourne and City of Yarra and a small part of the City of Stonnington.
Redistribution
Melbourne shifted south, picking up South Yarra and part of Prahran south of the Yarra from Higgins and Macnamara, and losing Clifton Hill to Cooper, and Carlton North, Fitzroy North and Princes Hill to Wills. These changes cut the Greens margin from 10.2% to 6.9%.
History
Melbourne is an original Federation seat, and was held by the ALP for over one hundred years before it was won by the Greens in 2010.
The seat was first won by Malcolm McEacharn, the former Mayor of Melbourne, who joined the Protectionist Party. Although McEacharn had defeated his Labor opponent William Maloney with over 60% of the vote in 1901, the 1903 election saw McEacharn only defeat Maloney by 77 votes, and the result was declared void after allegations that the result was tainted.
Maloney defeated McEacharn at the following by-election in 1904, and the ALP held Melbourne for the next century. Maloney polled over 60% at the 1906 election, and never polled less than 60% as he held the seat right through to 1940. Indeed, Maloney was elected unopposed at two elections. Maloney retired in 1940 but died before the 1940 election. He never held a frontbench role, and holds the record for the longest term of service without serving as a frontbencher.
The seat was won in 1940 by Arthur Calwell. Calwell held the seat for thirty-two years. He served as Minister for Immigration in Ben Chifley’s government from 1945 to 1949. He served as HV Evatt’s Deputy Leader from 1951 until 1960, when he became Leader of the Opposition.
Calwell led the ALP into three federal elections. The ALP was defeated by a slim margin at the 1961 election, but suffered a larger defeat in 1963 and a solid Liberal landslide in 1966. Calwell was replaced as Leader by Gough Whitlam in 1967 and Calwell retired in 1972. At no time did the seat of Melbourne come under any serious danger of being lost.
The seat was won in 1972 by Ted Innes, who held the seat until 1983.
He was succeeded by Gerry Hand, who served as a federal minister from 1987 until his retirement at the 1993 election.
The seat was won in 1993 by Lindsay Tanner. Tanner became a frontbencher following the defeat of the Labor government in 1996, and served on the Labor frontbench right until the election of the Rudd government, and served as Finance Minister in the first term of the Labor government.
The seat of Melbourne had been considered a safe Labor seat for over a century, but at the 2007 election the Greens overtook the Liberals on preferences and came second, and the two-candidate-preferred vote saw the ALP’s margin cut to 4.7%.
In 2010, Tanner retired, and his seat was won by the Greens’ Adam Bandt, who had first run for the seat in 2007.
Bandt was elected with the benefit of preferences from the Liberal Party, but in 2013 managed to win a second term despite the Liberal Party preferencing Labor. Despite losing these preferences, Bandt’s margin was only cut by 0.6%, and his primary vote jumped 7%. Bandt has since been re-elected in 2016, 2019 and 2022.
Bandt was elected leader of the Australian Greens in early 2020.
Assessment
The margin in Melbourne was significantly cut by the redistribution, but the Greens vote south of the Yarra was produced without the strong position of Adam Bandt personally – I expect he would pick up more support in that area, and retain his seat easily.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Adam Bandt | Greens | 47,883 | 49.6 | +1.6 | 44.7 |
| Keir Paterson | Labor | 24,155 | 25.0 | +3.9 | 25.7 |
| James Damches | Liberal | 14,660 | 15.2 | -6.0 | 19.5 |
| Colleen Bolger | Victorian Socialists | 3,156 | 3.3 | +3.0 | 2.6 |
| Richard Peppard | Liberal Democrats | 1,596 | 1.7 | +1.7 | 1.9 |
| Justin Borg | United Australia | 1,709 | 1.8 | +0.6 | 1.9 |
| Bruce Poon | Animal Justice | 1,316 | 1.4 | -0.7 | 1.4 |
| Scott Robson | Independent | 1,094 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 0.9 |
| Walter Stragan | One Nation | 937 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 0.8 |
| Others | 0.4 | ||||
| Informal | 2,993 | 3.0 | 0.0 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Adam Bandt | Greens | 58,050 | 60.2 | 56.9 | |
| Keir Paterson | Labor | 38,456 | 39.8 | 43.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Keir Paterson | Labor | 75,191 | 77.9 | +10.1 | 73.1 |
| James Damches | Liberal | 21,315 | 22.1 | -10.1 | 26.9 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Fitzroy, Carlton and Abbotsford are grouped as North-East. East Melbourne and Richmond are grouped as East. Booths close to the Melbourne CBD are grouped as West. Those south of the Yarra are grouped as South-East.
The Greens topped the primary vote in all four areas, with a vote ranging from 34% in the south-east to 57.2% in the north-east.
The ALP came second, with a primary ranging from 23.2% in the north-east to 27.9% in the south-east. The Liberal Party came third, with a primary ranging from 9% in the north-east to 29.6% in the south-east.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | LIB prim | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 44.7 | 24.5 | 20.9 | 10,324 | 10.9 |
| North-East | 57.2 | 23.2 | 9.0 | 10,033 | 10.6 |
| West | 51.5 | 24.2 | 12.2 | 9,984 | 10.5 |
| South-East | 34.0 | 27.9 | 29.6 | 6,258 | 6.6 |
| Pre-poll | 44.0 | 26.4 | 19.8 | 35,904 | 37.8 |
| Other votes | 40.3 | 26.2 | 23.6 | 22,470 | 23.7 |
Election results in Melbourne at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs Labor and Labor vs Liberal), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Greens, Labor and the Liberal Party.
Would there be any information on Labor to Green preference flows at the 2013 election? The Greens only made 2CPs with Labor that year, so the AEC’s data doesn’t provide any insight. I suspect that, following the minority government period, preference flows would’ve fallen from the 80-85% mark. Similarly, I predict that matters like Palestine, the fate of bills like Help to Buy and the perception of Greens as “extreme blockers” would lead those who vote Labor to favour the Coalition slightly more. Extrapolating on this, if I were in charge of the Labor electoral strategy at this election, I would be offering preferences to the Coalition in certain Green target seats, the most obvious example being Macnamara. Labor’s chances of holding on are zero, so it would be better to give it to the Coalition and make it easier to take back than by giving it to the Greens. It isn’t impossible to take back a Greens seat, but it is much harder. I don’t think Labor is game enough to give a seat that may provide it support in a minority situation, but stories I have heard about Labor strategy in the past indicate that they have been willing, historically, to put political matters ahead of electoral ones.
I think Labor will put a lot of effort into Macnamara and most media commentary favours Labor to hold it (I disagree and think it’ll be hard for them to hold it), but in light of that I doubt they’d preference the Libs because they Greens would use that against them and it’d probably translate to a significant swing of left leaning ALP voters to Greens on primary votes and guarantee Labor finish third.
@trent i agree with all the stuff going on in the middle east i dont think labor is gonna hold on to enough Jewish voters to maintain their position in the 2cp. on the other side of the pendulum they may lose votes to the greens on the same issues
Back to Melbourne as there is already a Macnamara thread.
This seat had the highest vote for the Republic, Voice and SSM, Apart from SSM which i will come back to later Maranoa is the polar opposite of this seat.
Adjusting to 2022 boundaries
Yes vote for Republic
1. Melbourne 72.57%
2. Maranoa 22.21%
Yes vote for the Voice
1. Melbourne 77.21
2. Maranoa 15.38%
Melbourne actually had a higher vote for the Voice despite a worse result statewide and The difference between the two seats in 1999 was 50.36% but in 2023 it was 61.83. Adjusting to the fact that the Voice did -5.19% nationwide the delta was still 56.64% greater than in 1999. I suspect if there was another Republic referendum say in Nov 2029 on the 30th anniversary the delta would have been greater. Interestingly, Carlton North PS had the highest Yes vote for the Voice and the second highest for the Republic any booth in the nation.
Now on to SSM.
Maranoa did not have the highest SSM that goes to Blaxland. However, that is due to higher CALD %. If Australia maintained a White Australia Policy and did not have post war immigration as well. I suspect Blaxland would have voted YES as the % of people with no religion would be far higher and the only seats to vote No would be Maranoa, Kennedy and Groom. Blaxland, Watson etc would probably not even be in the Top 15 lowest SSM vote and once again Maranoa would have the highest No vote for SSM.
@Nimalan those three seats barely voted No to same-sex marriage too so the national Yes vote would’ve been higher.
@ Nether Portal
Your a 100% correct the national and statewide SSM vote will be higher in pretty much each state. I suspect QLD would have the lowest YES vote not NSW in a more Anglo Australia. Some other Regional seats such as Hinkler, Flynn, Barker, Braddon had below national average votes for SSM so they would have been in the Top 15. I suspect Western Sydney would have had a similar vote for SSM like seats such as Kingston, Makin, Spence (parts of Port Adelaide and Wakefield) and Brand so a result in the 60s for Yes.
In this alternative history without even non Anglo European immigration Australia maybe even less Christian without Macedonians, Greeks, Serbs and Middle Eastern Christians and the % with no religion in 2016 census maybe close to 50%
Green hold with an increase in primary vote and ttp, will be interesting to see if Labor slips back to third place.
With the Clifton Hill area being replaced with South Yarra (where the Greens do very well but Liberals finish above Labor), I think Labor falling to third place and Melbourne becoming a GRN v LIB contest is very possible.
Was it in Melbourne in 2007 where the Greens finished in the final two for the first time ever in any federal seat (excluding by-elections)?
If my fact-checking is correct, the Greens got >15% on primaries and >10% in Melbourne Ports (now Macnamara), Sydney and Grayndler for the first time ever at the 2001 election.
I remember speaking to some Green voting friends in Sydney’s inner west prior to the 2023 state election and they had decided to vote 1 Labor in Balmain to try and sure up a Labor majority. The loss of the retiring green MP’s personal vote was a factor I’m sure but it does make me wonder if there are people in this (and other green held/target seats) area who feel the same as Labor stares down the barrel of clinging on to minority government.
Not a prediction just a thought
Votante: assuming you mean primary vote above 10%, Richmond in 2001 is on your list too.
Greens and Democrats got 10% (each!) in Fremantle all the way back in 1990, when Jo Vallentine got elected to the senate for what was in the process of becoming the Greens.
14% for Bob Brown in Denison back in 1993, too.
@Bird of paradox. Yes.
In Melbourne, Melbourne Ports, Sydney, Grayndler and Richmond, the Greens primary vote hit double digits in 2001 and has stayed that way ever since.
In Fremantle and Denison, the boosts to the Greens vote were once off. In Bob Brown’s case, he had a strong local profile and personal vote.
I reckon that if we could go back in time to the 2000s and tell election watchers that the Greens would win house seats in QLD before NSW, they’d think we were out of our minds.
Votante
The Reps Greens vote in Denison/ Clark has been suppressed by Andrew Wilkie being a ‘like minded’ independent. In state and senate elections- the Green vote in Denison /Clark has been in the 20s for decades. For what it is worth the Democrats used to poll highly in Melbourne and Melbourne Ports before the Greens came on the scene. Never close to winning though.
@Votante I think they’d think we’re crazy in 2001 saying the Greens would win a House seat full stop. But they’d never have thought the Liberals would lose Higgins or Labor would lose Banks either.
@votante yes it was
The Age is reporting that Anthony Koutoufides is taking a stab at the federal seat of Melbourne against Adam Bandt after his attempt for City of Melbourne mayor late last year.
Interesting. He didn’t even do particularly well in a council election where businesses not only get to vote, but get 2 votes. In a large federal seat that also contains most of Yarra and only residents vote, he’ll be lucky to get 5%.
Happy Australia Day everyone!
Just came here before any of the Greens MPs post their silly “Invasion Day” messages on their socials.
I also guarantee this is the most anti-Australia Day seat in the country.
I think anti-Australia Day sentiment would line up almost perfectly with the Yes vote at the referendum. So yes, this would be the most anti-Australia Day seat.
I’ll just chime in and say there’s a distinction between being against the idea of an Australia Day, and just being against the date commemorating the day the British claimed NSW as a penal colony, 113 years before Australia was even a nation.
I think we need a national day of celebration but would rather a date that symbolises how far Australia has come as a multicultural nation of immigrants living alongside the world’s oldest continuous surviving culture, than one that commemorates Britain, NSW and penal colonies.
Just to add to this, not trying to start a debate around Australia Day. Just pointing out there’s a difference between being anti-Australia Day as a concept, and wanting to change the date.
I wonder why we never took on 17 September as Australia Day – the day that Queen Victoria proclaimed the establishment of the Commonwealth of Australia. Yes, it took effect on 1 January 1901 and setting a national day as the same day as another public holiday wouldn’t be looked favourably upon – most people would want both days as public holidays. A national day for any nation always makes sense as a day of pride as well as reflection – Australia is no different, regardless of protests on the day about the day. But was picking the creation of NSW as a British penal colony the best day to be picked? I’m not so sure about that – reading through the history of the day itself, there was even a period of time during WW1 when it was held during July.
I expect at least a modest swing against Adam Bandt MP, in favour of Labor.
@Adam even most of the seats that voted Yes would be pro-Australia Day.
Given Peter Dutton’s One Flag Stance, I wonder what would have been the result if there was a plebiscite to remove the Indigenous Flags from Official Use (as demoting the Official use might require a plebiscite due the 1998 amendment to the 1953 Flags Act).There isn’t a poll I could find about the recent Dutton’s one flag stance but I expect this electorate would have the highest No vote.
Nothing but a safe Greens victory for Adam Bandt here. The Lib candidate seems surprisingly active on social media even though she has 0 chance of winning.
She might be visible just to help with momentum for the overlapping Prahran byelection.
Most of the state seat of Prahran is in this electorate. This is where the Greens lost the state seat to the Liberals at a by-election earlier this month, where Labor didn’t contest. Ben Raue wrote “Greens vote south of the Yarra was produced without the strong position of Adam Bandt personally”. I think the Greens will see an increase in their vote here as both Labor/Liberal (most likely) running dead.
I don’t see anything other than Adam Bandt retaining. There are rusted-on Greens north of Victoria Parade/Street in Collingwood, Fitzroy and Carlton. However, there could be a swing away from him north of the Yarra if the trends of the Prahran By-election and of inner Brisbane at the QLD state election continue. A major demographic change that has happened since 2022 is the return to office (RTO) and the increase in apartment dwellers. This might not favour the Greens.
Could liberal/labor help and ind get up?
They could try but I don’t see an ind winning here. There is a solid green wall north of Victoria Pde/Street.
Does koutifidies have a shot?. I know he’d get the centre right vote over labor/greens but could he get enough to knock labor out and would labor preference him?
Koutifides didn’t do well in the mayoral election where businesses got two votes. I think his chances of winning in Melbourne is 0% and his chance of making it into two candidate count v Adam Bandt is is less than 1%
I’d say bandt retain on reduced margin. Potential for an upset. Bandt certainly won’t win on preferences
I think any independent running in this seat will mostly take votes from the LNP and ALP. GRN retain on similar margin.
Isn’t this seat much closer than people are making it out to be?
A new 7% margin in the face of (1) Drastic underperformance and seat loss in QLD, partly due to rejection of extremist viewpoints (2) Seat loss in Prahran, an overlapping electorate, -14% swing on TCP (3) Surge in labour support and (4) strong anti-Dutton sentiment that could drive green voters to vote labour with the intention of keeping Dutton out of office. This 7% margin means if theres a 4% swing to Labour on TCP, Labour wins, right? That’s 1 in every 14 greens voters (or greens-preferencing voters) shifting to labour / labour preferencing, and the seat flips. (As in, 4% swing flips the seat, GRN TCP at 57%, therefore 4/57 x 100 means 7 in every 100 greens voters / preferencers would need to flip, or 1 in 14.25).
Is that not plausible? Could the greens end up with 0 seats? Please point out if my maths is wrong. Just thinking out loud.
I apologise, I see the swing margin is already accounted-for, so at 57 – 43, the swing would need to be 7%. The same maths results in 1 in 8 greens voters changing their vote to flip the seat. Still just as plausible in my opinion, not likely, but possible.
In the Dunkley by-election, the greens lost 4%, which might not seem like much, but they were at 10% previously, meaning 2 in every 5 green’s voters changed their first preference vote. Granted, they weren’t incumbent, especially not someone with the profile of Adam Bandt, but 2 in every 5 is a very concerning number for the greens if all labour needs is 1 in every 8 to flip in the electorate of Melbourne, and thats not even mentioning the catastrophe in Prahan.
And to finally add to this thesis of mine, the latest YouGov MRP has Greens winning by 2.7% (!!!) in Melbourne, and knifes edge for all Brisbane seats with no gains. That is well within the possibility of Melbourne flipping labour. Seems like there’s a discussion not being had on this.
Jim F,
The polling with the Greens in there 4 seats has been all over the shop, I don’t see in this environment how third parties and independents are doing better and some with high profile like Adam Bandt will lose here.
The YouGov polling and some of the MRP polling occasionally has some odd outliers, I would like to see more polling before I would say this seat was in trouble for the Greens. It’s worth noting that the Labor’s decision in the neighbouring electorate of Macnamara won’t play out well for Labor here either.
Speaking of Labor preferences, they might actually get counted in Melbourne. The redistribution didn’t just cut the Green 2cp, it also cut the gap between Labor and the Libs from 9.8% to 6.2%, with 4.6% for minor right parties – the 3cp would be pretty close here. It wouldn’t take much of a swing against Labor to swap this to a Green/Lib top two, which Bandt would obviously win easily.
Bird of paradox,
I would be surprised to see a swing against Labour in this seat, but Victoria will be harder for Labour than other states, there no doubt about that.
Spacefish,
I’ll just add that both YouGov MRP polls show a swing against Bandt in Melbourne, so I understand your point, but its not technically a one off poll result. With the factors I listed before, i see a 2CP swing to ALP probable, but whether its 4 or 6 or 8% is the uncertainty that I’m trying to highlight. If only 1 in 8 GRN voters need to change their vote, it just seems like its not being discussed (1.02 odds for Bandt, etc). Dont get me wrong, I don’t think he’ll lose, but somewhere around a 10-20% chance of Labour winning seems reasonable, particularly if the larger 2 party federal trend continues.
Paradox I’d reckon kouta could be the only one in shot
With a former AFL player and MAFs “husband” – does this seat have the most tabloid appeal in this election?
Kouta did terribly in the Melbourne City Council election, and that election skews far more right-leaning than state & federal ones because not only do businesses get to vote, but they get 2 votes.
Plus of course the most left-wing parts of the federal seat are in the City of Yarra, not MCC anyway.
So I can’t see Kouta even getting close to double digits.
Re: Melbourne, you have to consider the fact that Labor obviously doesnt think this seat is all that winnable. It would be ridiculous to try and gain this seat when
1. Labor is doing horribly in Victoria right now
2. Labor is currently trying to defend tons of Victorian seats and they are likely thin on resources at the moment
3. There isn’t even any evidence to show that Labor actually has a good chance to get a swing towards.
MRP’s are unreliable on a seat-by-seat basis (especially with minor parties) since they basically cannot consider ground campaigns at all, and the Greens are running strong while Labor isn’t running any real campaign at all. No notable cohort in this electorate is realistically going to get fooled into voting Labor to “keep Dutton out” when the Greens are literally incumbents of 15 years. The areas in South Yarra and such don’t currently have Bandt as an MP and Bandt seems to have a big personal vote (the Greens dropped double digits in the 2 kensington booths in 2022 after they were taken out of Melbourne) and so I expect them to either swing to the Greens or swing to the Liberals (like Prahran).
It seems if you take quite a few recent elections (QLD, NSW Council, Prahran by election) that there has been a small but noticeable swing against the Greens in their core areas, mostly replaced by increasing votes in outer suburban areas. Whatever is the cause of that, Bandt has way too much of a margin here, it would take a big, not small, drop in the Greens vote plus probably a scandal to cause the Greens any problems here.
I would also think a large section of the population would not really know who Anthony Koutoufides is – otherwise yes I would think he might be the sort of candidate that in a ‘meh’ election could pick up a lot of votes.
There are two different core areas for the Greens. More Tealish areas like South Yarra, Maiwar and Green Left areas Fitzroy, Collingwood and Brunswick. I expect a small swing away from Greens in most parts of this seat but no swing against them in Fitzroy and Collingwood.
How come the Greens 2CP crashed last election? What happened, and is there any chance of it happening again, and an upset loss here?
It didn’t crash its because 2019 was avs liberal count and 2022 was a vs labor count. The only chance an upset was gonna happen is if Labor prefenced koutifedes over greens but they didn’t. So it will be a bantretain on a reduced margin thanks to the redistribution