Melbourne – Australia 2025

Would there be any information on Labor to Green preference flows at the 2013 election? The Greens only made 2CPs with Labor that year, so the AEC’s data doesn’t provide any insight. I suspect that, following the minority government period, preference flows would’ve fallen from the 80-85% mark. Similarly, I predict that matters like Palestine, the fate of bills like Help to Buy and the perception of Greens as “extreme blockers” would lead those who vote Labor to favour the Coalition slightly more. Extrapolating on this, if I were in charge of the Labor electoral strategy at this election, I would be offering preferences to the Coalition in certain Green target seats, the most obvious example being Macnamara. Labor’s chances of holding on are zero, so it would be better to give it to the Coalition and make it easier to take back than by giving it to the Greens. It isn’t impossible to take back a Greens seat, but it is much harder. I don’t think Labor is game enough to give a seat that may provide it support in a minority situation, but stories I have heard about Labor strategy in the past indicate that they have been willing, historically, to put political matters ahead of electoral ones.

I think Labor will put a lot of effort into Macnamara and most media commentary favours Labor to hold it (I disagree and think it’ll be hard for them to hold it), but in light of that I doubt they’d preference the Libs because they Greens would use that against them and it’d probably translate to a significant swing of left leaning ALP voters to Greens on primary votes and guarantee Labor finish third.

@trent i agree with all the stuff going on in the middle east i dont think labor is gonna hold on to enough Jewish voters to maintain their position in the 2cp. on the other side of the pendulum they may lose votes to the greens on the same issues

Back to Melbourne as there is already a Macnamara thread.
This seat had the highest vote for the Republic, Voice and SSM, Apart from SSM which i will come back to later Maranoa is the polar opposite of this seat.
Adjusting to 2022 boundaries

Yes vote for Republic
1. Melbourne 72.57%
2. Maranoa 22.21%

Yes vote for the Voice
1. Melbourne 77.21
2. Maranoa 15.38%

Melbourne actually had a higher vote for the Voice despite a worse result statewide and The difference between the two seats in 1999 was 50.36% but in 2023 it was 61.83. Adjusting to the fact that the Voice did -5.19% nationwide the delta was still 56.64% greater than in 1999. I suspect if there was another Republic referendum say in Nov 2029 on the 30th anniversary the delta would have been greater. Interestingly, Carlton North PS had the highest Yes vote for the Voice and the second highest for the Republic any booth in the nation.

Now on to SSM.
Maranoa did not have the highest SSM that goes to Blaxland. However, that is due to higher CALD %. If Australia maintained a White Australia Policy and did not have post war immigration as well. I suspect Blaxland would have voted YES as the % of people with no religion would be far higher and the only seats to vote No would be Maranoa, Kennedy and Groom. Blaxland, Watson etc would probably not even be in the Top 15 lowest SSM vote and once again Maranoa would have the highest No vote for SSM.

@Nimalan those three seats barely voted No to same-sex marriage too so the national Yes vote would’ve been higher.

@ Nether Portal
Your a 100% correct the national and statewide SSM vote will be higher in pretty much each state. I suspect QLD would have the lowest YES vote not NSW in a more Anglo Australia. Some other Regional seats such as Hinkler, Flynn, Barker, Braddon had below national average votes for SSM so they would have been in the Top 15. I suspect Western Sydney would have had a similar vote for SSM like seats such as Kingston, Makin, Spence (parts of Port Adelaide and Wakefield) and Brand so a result in the 60s for Yes.
In this alternative history without even non Anglo European immigration Australia maybe even less Christian without Macedonians, Greeks, Serbs and Middle Eastern Christians and the % with no religion in 2016 census maybe close to 50%

Green hold with an increase in primary vote and ttp, will be interesting to see if Labor slips back to third place.

With the Clifton Hill area being replaced with South Yarra (where the Greens do very well but Liberals finish above Labor), I think Labor falling to third place and Melbourne becoming a GRN v LIB contest is very possible.

Was it in Melbourne in 2007 where the Greens finished in the final two for the first time ever in any federal seat (excluding by-elections)?

If my fact-checking is correct, the Greens got >15% on primaries and >10% in Melbourne Ports (now Macnamara), Sydney and Grayndler for the first time ever at the 2001 election.

I remember speaking to some Green voting friends in Sydney’s inner west prior to the 2023 state election and they had decided to vote 1 Labor in Balmain to try and sure up a Labor majority. The loss of the retiring green MP’s personal vote was a factor I’m sure but it does make me wonder if there are people in this (and other green held/target seats) area who feel the same as Labor stares down the barrel of clinging on to minority government.

Not a prediction just a thought

Votante: assuming you mean primary vote above 10%, Richmond in 2001 is on your list too.

Greens and Democrats got 10% (each!) in Fremantle all the way back in 1990, when Jo Vallentine got elected to the senate for what was in the process of becoming the Greens.

14% for Bob Brown in Denison back in 1993, too.

@Bird of paradox. Yes.

In Melbourne, Melbourne Ports, Sydney, Grayndler and Richmond, the Greens primary vote hit double digits in 2001 and has stayed that way ever since.

In Fremantle and Denison, the boosts to the Greens vote were once off. In Bob Brown’s case, he had a strong local profile and personal vote.

I reckon that if we could go back in time to the 2000s and tell election watchers that the Greens would win house seats in QLD before NSW, they’d think we were out of our minds.

Votante
The Reps Greens vote in Denison/ Clark has been suppressed by Andrew Wilkie being a ‘like minded’ independent. In state and senate elections- the Green vote in Denison /Clark has been in the 20s for decades. For what it is worth the Democrats used to poll highly in Melbourne and Melbourne Ports before the Greens came on the scene. Never close to winning though.

@Votante I think they’d think we’re crazy in 2001 saying the Greens would win a House seat full stop. But they’d never have thought the Liberals would lose Higgins or Labor would lose Banks either.

@votante yes it was

The Age is reporting that Anthony Koutoufides is taking a stab at the federal seat of Melbourne against Adam Bandt after his attempt for City of Melbourne mayor late last year.

Interesting. He didn’t even do particularly well in a council election where businesses not only get to vote, but get 2 votes. In a large federal seat that also contains most of Yarra and only residents vote, he’ll be lucky to get 5%.