McPherson – Australia 2025

LNP 9.3%

Incumbent MP
Karen Andrews, since 2010.

Geography
Southern end of the Gold Coast. McPherson covers the Gold Coast’s border with New South Wales and stretches up the coast to Burleigh Heads and covers inland Gold Coast as far north as Clear Island Waters and Merrimac.

History
McPherson was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949, and it has always been held by Coalition parties: by the Country Party until 1972 and by the Liberal Party from 1972 until the Liberal National Party merger in recent years.

The seat was first won in 1949 by Country Party leader Arthur Fadden, who became Treasurer in the post-war Menzies government. Fadden had briefly served as Prime Minister during the Second World War and had previously held Darling Downs since 1936.

Fadden held the seat until his retirement in 1958, when he was replaced by the Country Party’s Charles Barnes. Barnes served as a minister from 1963 until just before the 1972 election, and retired at that election.

At the 1972 election the seat of McPherson was lost by the Country Party to Liberal candidate Eric Robinson. Robinson served as a junior minister in the first term of the Fraser government and was appointed Finance Minister in 1977. He briefly stood down in 1979 due to a dispute with Malcolm Fraser, and was dropped from the ministry after the 1980 election. He died suddenly in January 1981.

The 1981 by-election was won by state Liberal MP Peter White, who defeated National Country Party senator Glen Sheil. White held McPherson at the 1983, 1984 and 1987 elections, and retired in 1990.

McPherson was won in 1990 by the Liberal Party’s John Bradford. Bradford held the seat until 1998. In April 1998 he resigned from the Liberal Party and joined the Christian Democratic Party. He contested the Senate in Queensland in 1998 for the CDP but was not elected.

McPherson was won in 1998 by Margaret May, who held the seat for the next four terms. May briefly served as a shadow minister under Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull but then returned to the backbench and retired in 2010.

At the 2010 election, the LNP’s Karen Andrews won the seat, and she has held the seat ever since.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Karen Andrews is not running for re-election.

Assessment
McPherson is a reasonably safe LNP seat.

2022 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Karen Andrews Liberal National 42,288 43.6 -4.7
Carl Ungerer Labor 21,354 22.0 -0.9
Scott Turner Greens 14,971 15.4 +4.4
Kevin Hargraves One Nation 7,013 7.2 +1.4
Joshua Berrigan United Australia 6,490 6.7 +3.4
Andy Cullen Values Party 2,310 2.4 +2.4
Glenn Pyne Liberal Democrats 2,063 2.1 -1.4
Gary Pead Federation Party 594 0.6 +0.6
Informal 5,565 5.4 -0.9

2022 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Karen Andrews Liberal National 57,605 59.3 -2.9
Carl Ungerer Labor 39,478 40.7 +2.9

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas:

  • North-East – Burleigh, Varsity Lakes.
  • North-West – Mudgeeraba, Reedy Creek, Robina.
  • South – Coolangatta, Currumbin, Elanora, Palm Beach, Tallebudgera.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 54.8% in the south and north-east to 60.9% in the north-west.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 14.9% in the north-west to 19.5% in the south.

Voter group GRN prim LNP 2PP Total votes % of votes
South 19.5 54.8 15,990 16.5
North-West 14.9 60.9 10,525 10.8
North-East 19.0 54.8 9,324 9.6
Pre-poll 14.1 60.3 42,572 43.9
Other votes 13.5 62.5 18,672 19.2

Election results in McPherson at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and One Nation.

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42 COMMENTS

  1. It’s been reported in the Australian, LNP Party insiders are said to be “increasingly concerned” about the emergence of a “McPherson Matters” group that is preparing a teal independent bid for this seat. LNP are moving fast with the preselection process to try withstand the teal threat with Maggie Forrest, barrister and the party’s honorary legal adviser reported as the frontrunner to replace Karen Andrews as the LNP’s candidate for McPherson.

  2. Nightwatchman

    I wonder what hope the teal movement has here? On the one hand, a retiring member provides the opportunity for change. On the other, the anti-Liberal and anti-Morrison momentum that most of the teals owe their victory to simply won’t be there as it was in 2022. As we saw in Victoria last year, they are nothing without that wave. Also, it is often suggested that the teal seats, the “drawing rooms of Toorak”, are the heartland of the Liberal party. If I were to name a heartland for the Liberal party, it would be here on the Gold Coast (and Cook). But still, if the Greens can take Ryan and Brisbane, who am I to claim to know anything about what goes on up there?

  3. @douglas agree that the teals don’t really have a chance here the demographic is certainly more your typical retiree liberal rather then the blue ribbon inner city seats. Also the Greens winning in Ryan I don’t think was particularly surprising there was rumblings of either a lab or green win there for most of the election and the Greens hold Maiwar. Brisbane is far less divided on economic and cultural lines compared to the north south divide in Sydney for example so it allows for more “unexpected” results.

    @turnbull srsly dude come on

  4. @sam the libs fortunes in maiwar may determine their fortunes in Ryan or vice versa depending on when the fed is

  5. From what I’ve heard, the Greens have a good chance of making it one of their priority seats if Currumbin or Burleigh can become much better for the Greens, which they have potential to. However it was rejected as a priority seat for them for the next election which is unlikely to change.

  8. @Turnbull Seriously you’ve just justified why all women should vote against any male sitting for election with the attitude you have just displayed what you and your male counterparts think of women 😡

  11. This seat contains
    1. `100% of Burleigh
    2. 100 % of Currumbin
    3. 46% of Mermaid Beach
    4. 57% of Mudgeeraba
    5. 9% of Surfers Paradise

    Booths to be posted tommorow

  12. Booths
    1. Bonogin (joint)
    2. Burleigh Heads
    3. Burleigh Waters
    4. Coolangatta
    5. Currumbin
    6. Currimbin West
    7. Elanora
    8. Kirra
    9, Merrimac (joint0
    10. Miami
    11. Mudgeeraba
    12. Palm Beach
    13. Reedy Creel
    14. Robina
    15. Tallebudgera
    16. Tallebudgera Valley
    17. Tugun
    18 Varisty Lakes

  14. State level TPP here (2024):

    * LNP: 63.0%
    * Labor: 37.0%

    Labor did 3.7% better on the federal level in 2022 than on the state level in 2024.

    As we can see, the LNP did better on the state level in all three of the federal seats on the Gold Coast.

    Due to the absence of Meaghan Scanlon’s personal vote, this seat is more LNP on the state level than Moncrieff but not as much as Fadden.

  16. Thanks Nether Portal
    We have now gone from Cape York all the way to Coolangatta along the East Coast. I will do Wright and Groom next week this will give you a break.

  17. @Nimalan thanks. I remember when I was in Thailand I said I was gonna calculate Shortland when I got back, I completely forgot about that so I might have a look at that this week too.

  18. Thanks Nether Portal
    I can get Shortland ready for you. As there is OPV in NSW a breakdown of primary votes is also important to compare.

  19. It hasn’t been noted yet in the comments but the Climate 200 backed candidate is Erchana Murray-Bartlett, who is notable for running 150 marathons back to back last year

  20. Time to spice up the contest: another independent candidate, DV survivor and campaigner, business coach and mentor Michelle Faye will run here in McPherson.

    My prediction is LNP hold. Leon Rebello has been actively campaigning for months, there was a big swing to the LNP in the overlapping state seats, and potentially a split in the independent/teal vote should help the LNP. The margin should go out to about 10%.

  22. I’m in Brisbane but I keep getting Erchana Murray-Bartlett’s online ads on YouTube and Facebook.

    @SpaceFish regarding The Greens, I don’t think they’d come second here. In the QLD state election, with massive swings away from Labor, The Greens didn’t come second in any Gold Coast seats. And I reckon they’ll try and bring their Gold Coast members down to Richmond for Mandy Nolan’s campaign – or maybe up to Moreton.

  23. Unlike Melbourne teal seats where the ground was slowly shifting under the Liberals in terms of demographics and the teal wave was novel, the Gold Coast I’d have thought has a more stubborn LNP vote and I’m unsure they’d have been convinced by the performance of the teals in parliament this term

  24. In Queensland those One Nation and UAP provide the LNP a fairly large cushion that does not exist in the southern states and definitely not in inner Melbourne or Sydney. Karen Andrews would no doubt have a personal vote up for grabs but beyond that any ‘Teal’ would largely be cannibalising Labor and Green votes – as has happened elsewhere.

  25. The Gold Coast isn’t tealish. Yes it’s moderate but social issues aren’t the main thing on the agenda, especially away from the elite areas.

  26. The re-alignment in McPherson hasn’t happened yet. For me, the change from Liberal to Independent in many formerly safe Liberal seats is because voters started prioritizing social policy over economic policy. I believe McPherson voters still largely vote on an economic basis, and until voters start prioritizing their potentially progressive views, I think no independent will win here.

  27. Also, no confirmation or anything internal but the vibe is that Scott Turner might be the candidate for the Greens again

  28. Economic conditions deteriorating will likely defer that realignment even more, even in a place like the Gold Coast

  29. I guess this seat has a large demographic of angry people who moved away from the big cities because they couldn’t hack it – so the LNP vote should hold

  31. too expensive to live in a good area and too many brown people are often reasons that people move from bigger cities to the Gold Coast.
    They would have a big alignment with LNP values

  32. Climate 200 seem to think LNP primary at 43 is their magic number – probably yes in the city proper but definitely not in places like here or out in the country where PHON and other RW minor parties poll better and will likely send stronger preference flows to the Liberals. The climate 200 published internals have this seat at about 42% LNP – that gets them home without a bother IMO

  36. LNP you choose an out slider this not a person required. If you stayed with local Ben there bể as sure LNP sear.

  37. LNP spin that Erchana Murray-Bartlett is a Climate 200 candidate. The campaign has less than $100k to run their whole campaign or around the same amount it costs for one seat at the table for Albos fundraiser. Geez

  38. The teal candidate notwithstanding, given the effect the cyclone is going to have/is already having on this area, is there a chance for the Greens to jump ahead of Labor in the 2CP? This seat, with a 4% difference between Labor and the Greens at the 3CP, would seem the likely candidate for the area. Moncrieff had a 3CP difference of 7%, while Fadden had a 3CP difference of 12%. Interesting to note the flows for the Greens from One Nation here last time, Greens received almost 30% of PHON preferences on distribution, almost double that of Labor. I shouldn’t imagine this will be repeated.

  39. What are the Greens going to say about Cyclone Alfred?
    “We warned you, but you wouldn’t listen”, perhaps.
    Northern New South Wales is going to cop it, voters in Richmond might compare the [inevitably] chaotic Minns Government response with the orde3rly way the Crisfulli Government has prepared?

  40. Douglas: good find on ON preferences. They were crucial to Green wins in Brisbane. I think that Erchana Murray-Bartlett is an outside chance here given LNP primary vote will certainly fall well below 40%. The word is Andrews is not campaigning hard for the LNP candidate. One to watch on the night maybe?

  41. “I guess this seat has a large demographic of angry people who moved away from the big cities because they couldn’t hack it – so the LNP vote should hold”

    More like wanting to retire or have a beach lifestyle I would have thought.

  42. A possibility of Murray-Bartlett coming second. I’m guessing Labor and Greens resources will be sucked out of the Gold Coast. Labor will be on the offensive in Brisbane and Griffith and the Greens will be targeting Richmond and be on the defence in their QLD seats.

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