McPherson – Australia 2025

It’s been reported in the Australian, LNP Party insiders are said to be “increasingly concerned” about the emergence of a “McPherson Matters” group that is preparing a teal independent bid for this seat. LNP are moving fast with the preselection process to try withstand the teal threat with Maggie Forrest, barrister and the party’s honorary legal adviser reported as the frontrunner to replace Karen Andrews as the LNP’s candidate for McPherson.

Nightwatchman

I wonder what hope the teal movement has here? On the one hand, a retiring member provides the opportunity for change. On the other, the anti-Liberal and anti-Morrison momentum that most of the teals owe their victory to simply won’t be there as it was in 2022. As we saw in Victoria last year, they are nothing without that wave. Also, it is often suggested that the teal seats, the “drawing rooms of Toorak”, are the heartland of the Liberal party. If I were to name a heartland for the Liberal party, it would be here on the Gold Coast (and Cook). But still, if the Greens can take Ryan and Brisbane, who am I to claim to know anything about what goes on up there?

@douglas agree that the teals don’t really have a chance here the demographic is certainly more your typical retiree liberal rather then the blue ribbon inner city seats. Also the Greens winning in Ryan I don’t think was particularly surprising there was rumblings of either a lab or green win there for most of the election and the Greens hold Maiwar. Brisbane is far less divided on economic and cultural lines compared to the north south divide in Sydney for example so it allows for more “unexpected” results.

@turnbull srsly dude come on

@sam the libs fortunes in maiwar may determine their fortunes in Ryan or vice versa depending on when the fed is

From what I’ve heard, the Greens have a good chance of making it one of their priority seats if Currumbin or Burleigh can become much better for the Greens, which they have potential to. However it was rejected as a priority seat for them for the next election which is unlikely to change.

@Turnbull lol

I’d say Liberal retain. The Gold Coast still has many conservatives.

@Turnbull Seriously you’ve just justified why all women should vote against any male sitting for election with the attitude you have just displayed what you and your male counterparts think of women 😡

Leon Rebello has been preselected as the LNP candidate today

Almost-certain LNP retain. Lots of rusted-on LNP voters here.

This seat contains
1. `100% of Burleigh
2. 100 % of Currumbin
3. 46% of Mermaid Beach
4. 57% of Mudgeeraba
5. 9% of Surfers Paradise

Booths to be posted tommorow

Booths
1. Bonogin (joint)
2. Burleigh Heads
3. Burleigh Waters
4. Coolangatta
5. Currumbin
6. Currimbin West
7. Elanora
8. Kirra
9, Merrimac (joint0
10. Miami
11. Mudgeeraba
12. Palm Beach
13. Reedy Creel
14. Robina
15. Tallebudgera
16. Tallebudgera Valley
17. Tugun
18 Varisty Lakes

@Nimalan thanks, will calculate now.

State level TPP here (2024):

* LNP: 63.0%
* Labor: 37.0%

Labor did 3.7% better on the federal level in 2022 than on the state level in 2024.

As we can see, the LNP did better on the state level in all three of the federal seats on the Gold Coast.

Due to the absence of Meaghan Scanlon’s personal vote, this seat is more LNP on the state level than Moncrieff but not as much as Fadden.

*Meaghan Scanlon’s personal vote in Gaven which is mostly in Moncrieff

Thanks Nether Portal
We have now gone from Cape York all the way to Coolangatta along the East Coast. I will do Wright and Groom next week this will give you a break.

@Nimalan thanks. I remember when I was in Thailand I said I was gonna calculate Shortland when I got back, I completely forgot about that so I might have a look at that this week too.

Thanks Nether Portal
I can get Shortland ready for you. As there is OPV in NSW a breakdown of primary votes is also important to compare.

It hasn’t been noted yet in the comments but the Climate 200 backed candidate is Erchana Murray-Bartlett, who is notable for running 150 marathons back to back last year

Time to spice up the contest: another independent candidate, DV survivor and campaigner, business coach and mentor Michelle Faye will run here in McPherson.

My prediction is LNP hold. Leon Rebello has been actively campaigning for months, there was a big swing to the LNP in the overlapping state seats, and potentially a split in the independent/teal vote should help the LNP. The margin should go out to about 10%.

If it wasn’t for the teal I could see the Greens coming a distant second place.

I’m in Brisbane but I keep getting Erchana Murray-Bartlett’s online ads on YouTube and Facebook.

@SpaceFish regarding The Greens, I don’t think they’d come second here. In the QLD state election, with massive swings away from Labor, The Greens didn’t come second in any Gold Coast seats. And I reckon they’ll try and bring their Gold Coast members down to Richmond for Mandy Nolan’s campaign – or maybe up to Moreton.

Unlike Melbourne teal seats where the ground was slowly shifting under the Liberals in terms of demographics and the teal wave was novel, the Gold Coast I’d have thought has a more stubborn LNP vote and I’m unsure they’d have been convinced by the performance of the teals in parliament this term

In Queensland those One Nation and UAP provide the LNP a fairly large cushion that does not exist in the southern states and definitely not in inner Melbourne or Sydney. Karen Andrews would no doubt have a personal vote up for grabs but beyond that any ‘Teal’ would largely be cannibalising Labor and Green votes – as has happened elsewhere.

The Gold Coast isn’t tealish. Yes it’s moderate but social issues aren’t the main thing on the agenda, especially away from the elite areas.

The re-alignment in McPherson hasn’t happened yet. For me, the change from Liberal to Independent in many formerly safe Liberal seats is because voters started prioritizing social policy over economic policy. I believe McPherson voters still largely vote on an economic basis, and until voters start prioritizing their potentially progressive views, I think no independent will win here.

Also, no confirmation or anything internal but the vibe is that Scott Turner might be the candidate for the Greens again

Economic conditions deteriorating will likely defer that realignment even more, even in a place like the Gold Coast

I guess this seat has a large demographic of angry people who moved away from the big cities because they couldn’t hack it – so the LNP vote should hold

Explain couldn’t hack it? An interesting way to refer to people who don’t live in big cities…

too expensive to live in a good area and too many brown people are often reasons that people move from bigger cities to the Gold Coast.
They would have a big alignment with LNP values

Climate 200 seem to think LNP primary at 43 is their magic number – probably yes in the city proper but definitely not in places like here or out in the country where PHON and other RW minor parties poll better and will likely send stronger preference flows to the Liberals. The climate 200 published internals have this seat at about 42% LNP – that gets them home without a bother IMO

Also Gary Biggs is listed as a ‘Liberal’ when it should be ‘Libertarian’ @Ben

This is possibly the most Labor friendly of the Gold Coast seats still with a 9% margin

ad still no chance