ALP 10.5%
Incumbent MP
Chris Bowen, since 2010. Previously member for Prospect 2004-2010.
Geography
Western Sydney. McMahon covers a central part of Western Sydney, covering parts of a number of local government areas. It covers parts of Blacktown, Cumberland, Fairfield and Penrith councils. The seat covers the suburbs of Blacktown, Bungarribee, Erskine Park, Fairfield, Fairfield Heights, Fairfield West, Greystanes, Minchinbury, Pemulwuy, Prospect, Smithfield, St Clair and parts of Seven Hills.
Redistribution
McMahon shifted north, losing part of Wetherill Park to Fowler and losing Guildford, Guildford West, Merrylands, Merrylands West, Old Guildford and Yennora to Blaxland. McMahon expanded north, taking in southern parts of the City of Blacktown from Chifley and Greenway, including Blacktown, Bungarribee, Prospect and part of Seven Hills. These changes increased the Labor margin from 9.5% to 10.5%.
History
McMahon was created at the 2010 election, but was effectively a new name for the seat of Prospect, and covered most of the same territory.
The original seat of Prospect was first created for the 1969 election, and has always been held by the ALP.
The seat was first won in 1969 by the ALP’s Dick Klugman. Klugman held the seat for 21 years, retiring in 1990.
He was succeeded by Janice Crosio, who had held a local state seat for the ALP since 1981, and had served as a minister for the last four years of the NSW state Labor government, from 1984 to 1988.
Crosio’s move to federal politics saw her serve as a Parliamentary Secretary from 1992 until the defeat of the Keating government in 1996. Crosio held the seat until the 2004 election.
At the 2004 election, the seat was won by the former Mayor of Fairfield, Chris Bowen. Bowen has held the seat (renamed McMahon in 2010) ever since. Bowen served as a cabinet minister from 2009 until 2013, serving briefly as Treasurer in 2013, and as Minister for Climate Change and Energy since 2022.
Assessment
McMahon is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Chris Bowen | Labor | 40,657 | 48.0 | +1.9 | 48.5 |
| Vivek Singha | Liberal | 24,006 | 28.3 | -5.0 | 28.1 |
| Marie Saliba | United Australia | 7,723 | 9.1 | +5.2 | 7.5 |
| Astrid O’Neill | Greens | 4,922 | 5.8 | +0.9 | 6.1 |
| Scott Ford | One Nation | 4,612 | 5.4 | -2.8 | 5.0 |
| Cameron Shamsabad | Liberal Democrats | 2,822 | 3.3 | +3.3 | 3.4 |
| Independent | 1.3 | ||||
| Informal | 10,057 | 10.6 | -1.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Chris Bowen | Labor | 50,413 | 59.5 | +2.9 | 60.5 |
| Vivek Singha | Liberal | 34,329 | 40.5 | -2.9 | 39.5 |
Booths have been divided into four parts. Polling places in Penrith along with two booths at the western end of the Blacktown and Fairfield council areas have been grouped as “west”. The remainder have been split between local government areas.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 53.1% in Cumberland to 69.2% in Fairfield.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Blacktown | 63.8 | 16,831 | 18.6 |
| West | 53.6 | 12,048 | 13.3 |
| Cumberland | 53.1 | 9,433 | 10.4 |
| Fairfield | 69.2 | 6,417 | 7.1 |
| Pre-poll | 62.5 | 30,972 | 34.2 |
| Other votes | 59.2 | 14,828 | 16.4 |
Election results in McMahon at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Carmen Lazar has been announced as the Liberal candidate for McMahon.
It’s time for Carbone to put up or shut up. He speaks out against him but hasn’t done anything about it. Any news on his and dai Les party in regards to nominating for other seats
I don’t get these rumours about Frank Carbone running. To me, it doesn’t make that much electoral sense as I’ve mentioned before. There were rumours that he’d run for the state seat of Cabramatta in 2023. It didn’t happen.
“He’s not running, people are just hallucinating.” – Ben
There’s a lot of wishful thinking about his inclination to run and his chances of winning. I don’t see any reason to take it seriously. In the past he has teased about running for seats before not running but I think on this occasion it’s groundless.
Still if he doesn’t run now no one is ever gonna take him seriously again.
Had carmen been preselected earlier she would definitely have a chance
Nope libs aren’t winning this seat ever unless Bowen commits murder.
Carmen Lazar appears to be another disgruntled party member running in McMahon. She was a Fairfield Labor councillor until last September. She has since switched to the Liberals. That’s according to AFR.
Even if an independent is very unlikely to win here, does the presence of Camenzuli and/or Carbone (if the latter runs) on the ballot increase the probability of Labor losing this seat to the Liberals?
doubtful
These independents don’t have enough name recognition to get anything significant. McMahon is 4 different LGAs in one seat. It’ll be a standard Labor-Liberal 2PP. Carbone is the only one who might get in the 2PP if the Liberals ran dead but a) he won’t run and b) they wouldn’t run dead when McMahon is a seat they are hoping can be winnable for them in a future election
the only person who can beat Bowen is Carbone. though if he doesnt put his money where his mouth is and run he should just shut up about it.
Is he actually running his mouth this time, or is it just Liberals that are making noises about him running? I haven’t heard any comment from him this election.
i heard he teased it last year but since then nothing. anyway he has until next thursday. also heard nothing about his party running for any seats other then Dai Le in Fowler
@Adda April 1, 2025 at 4:29 pm
I think he hinted at it once last year. Every other mention of Carbone running in McMahon that I’ve seen have come from Liberal supporters.
Redistribution has been fun. McMahon seems like a wild ride but all talk and no substance. Blows my mind that someone who appears to care deeply ‘She has helped migrants to access the settlement support, education and healthcare they need.’ and received a Medal of the Order of Australia for her service to multicultural communities… would join the Libs!? The conservative values and bitter with ALP maybe?
SMH reporting on former Whitlam candidate Ben Britton linking him to the “Trump-loving faction of the NSW Liberals, associated with Matt Camenzuli”
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/liberals-dump-candidate-over-sexist-podcast-remarks-20250406-p5lpka.html
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/04/08/federal-miscellany-morgan-poll-candidate-ructions-and-more-open-thread/
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/election-2025-shock-polling-has-energy-minister-chris-bowen-at-risk-in-mcmahon/news-story/3b7f3e0b1c03fe5db90809f339d1bcbd?amp
It’s paywalled so I’m going by summaries from others on this
According to a poll taken by Compass last weekend, Bowen is on 19% support whilst Camenzuli is on 41% support, with Liberal support on 20%
However, William Bowe has said that Compass isn’t a reputable and called the poll absurd (For reference, the post is on Page 13 on Pollbludger blog post about the recent Sky News debate result posted on Wednesday, April 9, 2025 at 9:51 pm)
Ik Pollbludger isn’t well regarded (tbh that’s fair) but it’s still useful for finding news
Poll Bludger is fine as a website, it’s the binfire of a comments thread that lets it down. William Bowe talks sense.
Yeaits comeplety ludicrous poll as much as I want it to be true
It would be interesting to see a credible poll here though. Bowen’s vote will obviously due to his involvement in energy policy. I’d expect the liberal vote to recover based on the 2022 low point. Especially given uap and libertarians aren’t running as of yet. Though camenxzuli may poll well he will likely finish third. I’d expect a 55-45 result here
Don’t forget this electorate includes the former state seat of Smithfield which the Liberals were able to pick up in the state election of 2011-so it is not impossible.
Carbone is all flash and no photo
Andrew Rohan won Smithfield against a 16 year old tired and hated State government. Any comparison to the 2025 Federal election is nothing more than wishful thinking.