McMahon – Australia 2025

Is Frankie C finally going to run?
Would expect this seat to have a similar fate to Fowler if he does.
Bowen has been one of the government’s worst performers whilst Carbone has been one of Sydney’s most popular Mayors

Carbone should easily beat Bowen if he runs

Only a relatively small part of McMahon is in Fairfield LGA. You reckon Carbone will be able to appeal to the rest of the electorate?

Labor would definitely be hoping that Carbone doesn’t run. They have enough seats to worry about as is.

This is a real mess of a seat with 5 distinct sections. Are there many commonalities between St Clair, Blacktown, Greystanes and Fairfield, or is the division likely to swing based on local issues and vibes?

Fairfield now only makes up approximately 25% of the division. That’s also Bowen’s strongest section. If Carbone could win Fairfield, would he also be able to achieve enough cut-through in the remainder, particularly Labor’s weaker sections in Cumberland and Penrith Councils?

if carbone runs he’ll likely garner most of the preferences from all the other parties and cobine that with whatever first preferences he can get and strip from Bowen he would easily win. i reckon 55-45 of the 2cp

I think Carbone would win quite comfortably due to a number of factors:
a) Can harness the popularity of a like-minded independent in a neighbouring seat (Dai Le) similarly to the way the Teals did in Northern Sydney and Melbourne. Consolidating through geography and demos- as part of a broader movement;
b) If the field is crowded enough, due to compulsory preferential voting, Carbone like Dai Le could triangulate all preferences against Bowen and easily get across the line; and
c) Despite Fairfield Council not entirely overlapping the electorate of McMahon, the largest and most densely populated parts do overlap, namely: Horsley Park, Fairfield- Heights/West, Wetherill Park, Bossley Park, Abbotsbury, Prairiewood, Cecil Park, Smithfield, Yennora and Old Guilford

I cant see any of rhe other parties preferencong Bowen over Carbone

@Darth Vader the Greens will.

Angas,

McMahon definitely seems to be becoming an “All the random bits and pieces that don’t fit in the Liverpool, Parramatta, Blacktown, and Mount Druitt based seats” Division.

Bowen might hold it simply because it’s harder for any one local independent to appeal across all the different areas.

@NP the grn vote is relatively weak in this seat though not even 6% and last time only 66% of that vote wen to labor on 2nd preference if you add in a INd like carbone im sure that would drop even further.

@mark McMahon is slowly becomng the 3rd blacktown division as blacktown grows. this will keep pushing mcmahon north into blacktown and out of fairfield. this will make it a safer seat on 2pp but will ultimately likely help the liberals win parramatta and greenway

As a comparison, Greens only got 5% in neighbouring Fowler, which largely all went to Labor and was not enough to sandbag the seat against an independent.
Contrary to Mark’s above point Carbone had an even larger profile than Dai 3 years ago, at least in the area. This has only grown as a consequence of a dominating Local Government election performance.
His profile also grew during the COVID lockdowns which detrimentally impacted Western Sydney and has been vocal against migration increases due to overcrowding and lack of infrastructure/housing development.
Not an ordinary independent by any means and also considered not particularly partisan. Good media performer and has been Mayor of a large Western Sydney council for over a decade.

@fatty labor only received 52% of the greens second preference.

@john I tried to follow the maths on this for both Fowler and McMahon and due to the uptick from 1st pref to 2PP, I can’t square what you’re saying.
In McMahon, Bowen got 48% and ended up with 59.5%, which is an 11.5% differential. The Greens received 5.8%, so that would most of this is likely been absorbed into the 11.5%. Especially considering the other parties were UAP, One Nation and LDP.
In Fowler, Keneally got 36.1% of 1st pref and 48.4% of 2PP. A 12.3% differential. Greens polled 4.9% 1st Pref, and that would easily been all absorbed into the 12.3%.
As with McMahon the other parties were UAP, One Nation and LDP.
I can’t see anything less than 90% of Greens 2nd preferences going to anything other than Labor.
To clarify 2nd preferences meaning Labor over Lib or Independent in 2PP.
But I may have read this wrong…

@fatty your forgetting that Carbone will eat into Bowen and labor primary vote. once he starts eating into that bowens chances drmatically reduce. the left and right vote was about 54-46 so obviously some of the right vote split to bowen instead of the libs. Carbone would attract almost all of that if he were to run and he should get close enough to topple Bowen. plus if you add in the muslim vote that will likely be striiped by a muslim a back candidate then you add in the CoL crisis plus people who were added from neighbouring Fowler who now have a s taste for an Ind candidate it is entirely plausible Bowen can lose. but expect labor to throw resources here

I think Carbone would have a really good chance of winning this seat if he decides to run. Due to a few reasons

1. Bowen is really unpopular due to him being Minister for Energy that his policies of clean energy isn’t popular within the electorate as they more care more about paying less on their power bills.

2. The COL crisis and Morgage Stress is a heavy within the electorate which would be a problem for Labor especially when it got worse since they won the last election.

3. Labor’s strongest part of the electorate is mostly within Fairfield Council which Carbone has proven to get a huge percentage of votes there. The neighbouring councils of Cumberland, Blacktown and Penrith doesn’t vote strongly for Labor and the Liberal polling booths would help Carbone too.

@micheal agreed carbone is likely the best chance of unseating bowen and i hope he runs and wins

Matthew Camenzuli is also running as an independent here so i think Bowens vote is gonna get hammered enough if Carbone runs.

if you tally it up the right v left vote here is about 54-46 there was obviously leakage from the right to bowen to get him to basically 60-40. carbone could harness enough of the left vote and with strong preferences could easily beat bowen

mcmahon will become the 3rd blacktown seat and fowler will become likely solely focused on fairfield

Cabone will not run. If anything he would help Dai Le

Of the minors only Greens are left of centre.Bowen got a fair whack of right wing preferences, more than I would expect. He also got a 3% 2pp swing to him.
Why? More popular than people guess?

@mick he has not yet announced his intentions but he has spoken publicly against chris bowen. his swing was minor compared to the avegerage swing in nsw and certainly wasnt because he is popular it was in line with the anti morrison/liberal across nsw and australia. expect it to swing back to around 6% 2pp this election carbone would absolutely steamroll bowen if he were to run

Bowen is a genuine local and long term incumbent who likely has a reasonably large personal vote. I also remember the Palestine campaigns actually largely leaving Bowen (and Music) alone compared to other MPs in target seats.

I think Bowen is safe and its Clare and Burke that should be more worried about their once ultra safe seats.

@blue bowen threat isnt from te muslim votes group but from Carbone and Les Network and if Carbone runs he will win. if he doesnt run he will likely have someone from his network run as they have vowed to contest western sydney seats and that is where the threat is especially since they will be able to harness votes from the centre right parties preferences and may be able to steal enough votes to topple Bowen. the last election saw the left/right split at 54-46 so all they need to do is harness the right vote and steal only a handful of votes from the left in order to topple bowen. Clare is more under threat then Burke. The candidatae in Watson has had controversial views regarding palestine and would not be receiving liberal preferences which is the ony way he can theoretically win. The candidate in Blaxland hasnt yet had any repotrted controversy and could harness the liberal preferences need to beat Jason Clare.

In comes Matt Camenzuli. The man who tried to sue Scomo. He may just give McMahon are real good crack. He is a decent alternative for disillusioned voters. Ex-Liberal and he speaks well in his campaign material. He will appeal to many within McMahon basing his campaign on ‘common sense, authenticity and courage’.

I do love when an independent states policies like ‘Scrap alcohol, tobacco and fuel tax’. Simples.

I’m keen for anyone to give the majors a run for their money. Just be honest.

But is he likely to most disrupt the ALP vote or LIB? Noting there is no LIB candidate as yet.

@schmee id expect one soon the libs have no hope here and they usually leave those sort of seats til last as they are focused on getting people into the winnable seats first

@john, it’s baffling how people continue to vote for LIB when it’s clear they do not care about the electorate. Don’t get me wrong, arguably, the rest are the same. The argument for small parties, though, is the lack of resources. The Greens do not take donations from major corporations; they list all donors over $1K. The Liberal Party have the funds. Yet, as we saw with the NSW local elections, failure to register on time is poor management.

Camenzuli won’t win but he definitely could knock out Bowen in place of a Liberal.

No an ex liberal will not win here. His qualms are with the liberal party organisation.

@schmee the same reason as people vote labor in regional areas when labor dont care about the electorate. there are always people who dont agree with either the current member/government and have values tht are different e/g the people who vote liberal here are obviously conservative who dont like the way labor run things.

in regards to the electorate Carbone would be ina position where Chris Bowen personal vote and rusted on labor voters to a lesser extent in the Blacktown LGA is the only thing keeping in contention. after redistribution the labor voting parts of Cumberland have been removed frank carbone could easily rely on the liberal voting parts of cumberland and penrith for preferences and could rely on the majority of fairfield to the tune f about 75% of the vote based on council results. even if carbone doesnt personally run i still think his pary (WSC) will put up a candidate and that will be enough to toppplle Bowen.

No alp retain

@mick against a WSC candidate no chance. against anyone else probably

I think if Carbone runs, he’ll win. If WSC run another candidate, they wont topple Bowen – unless they put someone up who’s high-profile in the Fairfield community. Reason being that Bowen has been a local figure for some time, people seem to know him as a local. I’m sure there’s a decent personal vote there. The only way that someone else could topple Bowen, by winning the Fairfield area and getting preferences from Lib parts of this seat, is with a candidate like Carbone who is also a popular and well-recognised local figure.

Carbone and dai me control 3/4 of Fairfield council as kind as carbone turns up to help they’ll win

Is there a real chance of Carbone running? It seems to be a rumour at every state and federal election, but it never happens.

From what I am hearing, most are sceptical that he would give up Council for Canberra. Big fish in small pond theory.

If he has the numbers he will he’s been a harsh critic of Bowen. Time to put up or shut up

@LNP im sure that you can be on a council and an MP as to the best of my knowledge Dai Le is still on the council. Also the Mayor of PArramatta is also a NSW State MP

at least she was the mayor of parramatta after her election but has since forfeited that role

John, there are no restrictions for serving in dual roles for Council and Federal Parliament. However, for NSW Parliament you can only serve dual roles for a limited time (max 2 years I believe) once elected.

Donna Davis, the former Parramatta Mayor and now Parramatta state MP did not contest her council seat at the most recent (2024) election, so she is now solely a state MP. In fact, she stepped down as Mayor shortly after her 2023 state election victory and served as just a councillor for the balance of her term.

@yoh yes ive just discovered that

Fairfield Council, the one that Frank Carbone is the mayor of, accounts for a small portion of the electorate. It’s less than a fifth. Name recognition in Fairfield will help but can only go so far.

He’s not Dai Le. Dai Le’s electorate and Fairfield LGA largely overlap. She speaks Vietnamese and has more experience with political campaigning. Also, Chris Bowen isn’t Kristina Keneally. He’s been the member for over 20 years and isn’t some blow-in that the local Labor rank and file are upset with. Dai Le’s candidacy came in part due to local anguish over the parachuting of KK.

With Matthew Camenzuli in the race, a new independent candidate competing would split the vote. It would improve Bowen’s chances of retaining.

Fairfield is only a part of this annoying electorate stuck with Chris Bowen. If Carbone ran, those outside the Fairfield council area (like me) wouldn’t really know anything about him. Matt Camenzulli has the potential to be a disrupter. He is actually proving to be an alternative for those who won’t vote Labor or Greens and are yet to see a Liberal candidate. As usual, being a safe Labor seat, we hardly see anything to do with the Liberal candidate in the lead up to the election. What a shame the boundaries of McMahon weren’t changed in the recent carve up. I would love to see someone give the current incumbent a run for his money.

So Frank Carbone going to run or will it just be another lost dream?

He’s not running, people are just hallucinating.

@bazza March 28, 2025 at 9:29 am
Basically just premature speculation from certain people.

Also what do people think about Camenzuli’s chances of winning the seat considering he’s the Independent running here?

I don’t rate Camenzuli’s chances that highly. He has nowhere near Dai Le’s level of traction. I reckon the independents in Watson and Blaxland will score a higher primary vote.

This is carbones chance time to put up or shut up.

This may be the Greens biggest campaign in McMahon to date, we’ll be hoping to build on remarkable results from recent council elections. Thanks for the fantastic insights here, Ben.

Doubt many from Blacktown would vote Carbone (even if he were running) they’ve never heard of him.

Jared Athavle is listed as McMahon but I believe that’s an error on the party website. The bio lists two electorates.

Anyone else going to turn up? Where’s all the noisy righties?

Ah I actually removed Athavle from McMahon on my list and added him to Fowler, but because there were no other candidates needing a change in McMahon the list was left unchanged. Deleting him now. Fairly sure they moved him from McMahon to Fowler.

Nominations close April 10th so carbine has until then